UK Politics: Who Pays the Andyman?

[Liffguard]

I'm also holding out reasonable hopes for my own constituency. I was at the polling station for most of today, and we got a very positive response, with the same being reported from many other stations. Even if the conservatives gain power nationally, I'll take it as a small but personally significant win if we can take this seat from them for the first time since 1835. A small sign that things can change for the better. Maybe I'm setting myself up for disappointment by hoping, but fuck it, I'm going to anyway.

[Chaircat Meow]

Gammonquake!

[Werthead]

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As someone who supports the progressive movement worldwide this is seriously disappointing. Did the young not turn out to vote this time; they're our only hope for seizing control from oligarch puppets like Johnson.

There's some scattered reports of students not being able to vote in their college towns, but I doubt it would be enough to explain this. A very low youth turn out might be one explanation, or a large number of people not voting tactically.

I think the emergent narrative will be that the nation was so utterly sick of Brexit that a lot of people bought Boris's lie that he can get Brexit done in a month and we'll never have to hear about it again, rather than it being the dominant political force for the next five years, if not twenty, just in a different way.

[Chaircat Meow]

At least I can go to bed. I'll wait to make sure the first results accord with the poll then go to sleep. 

[Derfel Cadarn]

I opposed Scottish independence during the referendum. The fucking Tories have managed what SNP couldn’t; made me move to Yes.

Sorry, Little England, but time to cut our losses. There’s a half-dozen old police boxes scattered about Glasgow you can have, to help you travel back to the 50’s.

[The BlackBear]

Just now, Derfel Cadarn said:

I opposed Scottish independence during the referendum. The fucking Tories have managed what SNP couldn’t; made me move to Yes.

Sorry, Little England, but time to cut our losses. There’s a half-dozen old police boxes scattered about Glasgow you can have, to help you travel back to the 50’s.

Amen. I'm joining the SNP tomorrow.

[Werthead]

Slightly hyperbolic statement by Andrew Neil saying that Labour can't win the 2024 election either. In 2005 Labour won 355 seats to the Tories' 198, with the LibDems on 62 and the SNP on 6. Not far off the projection of Tories 368, Labour 191, SNP 55 and LibDems 13. That got turned around in five years, there's no reason this can't either.

A bigger issue for the Tories now will be that the next leader of the Labour Party will not carry Corbyn's baggage. In that sense the Tories have had an easy ride of it. If the next leader is someone like Starmer, the Tories will have to deal with someone who is considerably better on his feet in Parliament, can't be smeared as easily and is someone the Tories themselves gave honours to.

ETA: Scotland jumping ship - quite understandably - torches that potential comeback route in 2024, of course.

[Heartofice]

15 minutes ago, Pebble thats Stubby said:

yeah,   I've not got much hope.   but maybe we can take a few nasty scalps which may take some of the sting out of a massive Tory win

 

Swinson looks like she might lose her seat though. Which is amusing.

[Chaircat Meow]

5 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Slightly hyperbolic statement by Andrew Neil saying that Labour can't win the 2024 election either. In 2005 Labour won 355 seats to the Tories' 198, with the LibDems on 62 and the SNP on 6. Not far off the projection of Tories 368, Labour 191, SNP 55 and LibDems 13. That got turned around in five years, there's no reason this can't either.

A bigger issue for the Tories now will be that the next leader of the Labour Party will not carry Corbyn's baggage. In that sense the Tories have had an easy ride of it. If the next leader is someone like Starmer, the Tories will have to deal with someone who is considerably better on his feet in Parliament, can't be smeared as easily and is someone the Tories themselves gave honours to.

ETA: Scotland jumping ship - quite understandably - torches that potential comeback route in 2024, of course.

My God: he's realised Corbyn is the problem. The Penny has DROPPED!!!

[ljkeane]

4 minutes ago, The BlackBear said:

Amen. I'm joining the SNP tomorrow.

The SNP are part of the problem too. Their rise in Scotland has basically meant their no realistic path for a non Tory government even in a potential coalition because Labour and the Lib Dems would be fucking themselves over by joining a coalition with the SNP.

I'm pretty pissed off with the UK's entire political scene. Boris and the Tories are horrendous and hell bent on fucking the UK over. Corbyn's fucking useless and everyone's known it for years but Labour have stuck with him anyway. The Lib Dems rendered themselves irrelevant with the coalition and SNP's petty nationalist shite is less unpleasant than Farage's version but still basically fucking stupid nationalism that'd make their country worse off and would fuck the rest of us over if they actually manage to pull it off.

[Werthead]

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My God: he's realised Corbyn is the problem. The Penny has DROPPED!!!

The perceived problem, anyway. The lack of nuance in modern politics at the moment when we have the technology for people to actually understand politics on a much deeper level than in say the 1970s or 1980s may be the biggest tragedy of the whole mess. Tim Berners-Lee must feel like Pandora.

[Chaircat Meow]

I think this result is awful. But, at least, surely, it is the end for Corbyn and Corbynism. 

[Werthead]

1 minute ago, ljkeane said:

The SNP are part of the problem too. Their rise in Scotland has basically meant their no realistic path for a non Tory government even in a potential coalition because Labour and the Lib Dems would be fucking themselves over by joining a coalition with the SNP.

I'm pretty pissed off with the UK's entire political scene. Boris and the Tories are horrendous and hell bent on fucking the UK over. Corbyn's fucking useless and everyone's known it for years but Labour have stuck with him anyway. The Lib Dems rendered themselves irrelevant with the coalition and SNP's petty nationalist shite is less unpleasant than Farage's version but still basically fucking stupid nationalism that'd make their country worse off and would fuck the rest of us over if they actually manage to pull it off.

I don't see a path to keep Scotland in the union. If the SNP can't get the Tories to agree to a new referendum, they can unilaterally hold one, get the UN to observe it or something, and if the result is 60% + in favour of independence, it would be very difficult for Westminster not to recognise the result. Plus the Conservatives have no real reason to do so if they think they can afford to lose Scotland and it not destroy them at the ballot box. With a lot of people saying that losing Scotland and Northern Ireland is a price worth paying for Brexit, this might in fact be the Tories' only window to destroy any chance of an opposition government taking power in the next two or three elections.

In the long run there would be a correction mechanism - probably people rallying around the LibDems as a new centrist party - but that's a hell of a thing to pin your hopes on.

[Werthead]

Just now, Chaircat Meow said:

I think this result is awful. But, at least, surely, it is the end for Corbyn and Corbynism. 

He's gone, not just because of the result but also simple age. He looked a lot less robust on this campaign than the last one, which was only a couple of years ago.

Starmer a shoe-in, now that Watson and a lot of the Blairites have gone as well?

[ljkeane]

Just now, Werthead said:

I don't see a path to keep Scotland in the union. If the SNP can't get the Tories to agree to a new referendum, they can unilaterally hold one, get the UN to observe it or something

Whatever. I've given up caring to be honest.

With the UK doing something as stupid as brexit I can see why Scottish voters might be more inclined to vote for independence but leaving the UK out side the EU would actually probably be significantly worse for Scotland than the previous plan of independence for Scotland with both remaining in the EU afterwards. But, hey, I've got no confidence in any voters making logical decisions anymore. 

[Werthead]

On Twitter reports that the exit poll was conducted in 65 seats that are "too close to call." Also some constituencies reporting turnout as high as 80%, which makes the poll marginally less reliable (as the sample size becomes smaller).

I think there's a bit too much optimism there. Still a strong Tory majority, maybe not quite as high as the projection but certainly not 50+ seats off.

[Werthead]

Farage claiming victory for the Tory Party, suggesting that if the Brexit Party had stood in every seat there'd currently be a hung Paraliament.

Andrew Neill suggesting politely that he's full of shit.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

How did Labour F this up so badly?

Oh well, congratulations Eurocommies. Here's hoping that the fallout is merely just shooting yourself in the foot and not the heart.

[Werthead]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

How did Labour F this up so badly?

Oh well, congratulations Eurocommies. Here's hoping that the fallout is merely just shooting yourself in the foot and not the heart.

At the moment I'm much more concerned that this result will repeat itself in the USA in a year's time, which would be far more concerning on a global level.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Once again, the members of this forum proving to be a leftwing fringe group woefully out of touch with the main stream in the English speaking world.

Usually the retort is that it is just Conservative America which is out of touch, and that these woke views are more aligned to the rest of the Western world.

But from America to Australia and now in Britain the English speaking world has delivered so much “winning” to conservatives that it has been a pretty pleasant decade to be of a right wing persuasion, I must confess.

Today just shows again that you guys are the radicals, and in the major English speaking nations people mostly don’t share your views.

To our unhappy British friends on the board, well, I guess you can always still move to New Zealand, which seems a bit of an outlier to the mainstream Anglophile world as well.