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Tywin Manderly

UK Politics: Who Pays the Andyman?

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38 minutes ago, Liffguard said:

I think anyone trying to predict an outcome with any degree of confidence is a mug, but fuck it, I feel like a mug half the time anyway, so I'll play.

I suspect we'll see a small but workable Tory majority, in the region of twenty seats or so. I also suspect that this will be just enough support for Johnson to get his deal passed, and that we'll be out of the EU early next year. I am not happy about this, and very earnestly hope I'm wrong. I think an outright Labour majority is vanishingly unlikely, and a hung Parliament leading to a minority Labour government is not totally out of the realm of possibility, but I definitely wouldn't put money on it.

That said. within my own constituency I think there's a pretty decent chance of taking the seat out of Tory hands for the first time since 1835. This is due to a confluence of local factors: changing demographics from rural to urban residency; the incumbent MP standing down and being replaced by an unknown candidate; and a well-known, popular, local independent challenger.

I’m thinking much the same, probably a Tory majority of 30 ish, I think a Labour majority is very unlikely and a minority government again not that likely either.

Hoping the Brexit party will fuck off into insignificance after this election although it’s more than likely Farage will hang around like a bad smell.

@BFC Boris grabbing that phone is disgraceful!.

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26 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Boris snatches phone from man trying to show him photo of 4 year old child forced to lie on hospital floor because of insufficient beds. What an absolute cunt. 

Holy cow. Do I actually have to do a trump and cry 'fake news!' here. 

Watch the actual video before writing stuff like this. Its amazing this rubbish is front page of the Guardian.

Boris doesn't snatch the phone.. he is handed the phone after repeatedly being asked to look at the photo. 
Boris eventually looks at the photo and says its appalling. 

If you don't like Boris, fine. I get it. But engaging in this level of nonsense doesn't help.

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I have watched it. It's on the bbc website for everyone to see. The cowardly fuck couldnt even look at it. Kept talking utter shite, avoiding the question, then took the phone and put it in his pocket. How is that remotely fake news? You might say he took the phone rather than snatched. But that is semantics and totally missing the point at hand.  

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Just now, BigFatCoward said:

I have watched it. It's on the bbc website for everyone to see. The cowardly fuck couldnt even look at it. Kept talking utter shite, avoiding the question, then took the phone and put it in his pocket. How is that remotely fake news? You might say he took the phone rather than snatched. But that is semantics and totally missing the point at hand.  

Was the phone snatched? No. Not at all.

Did Boris look at the phone? Yes.

Seriously this is just appalling journalism. Can’t believe you are falling for it

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Breaking story right now: Johnson is planning to abolish the mandatory TV licence. He will either decriminalise non-payment or will abolish it outright, forcing the BBC to a subscription or advertising model.

That's pretty huge. And explains why the BBC has been a lot more fawning over the Tories this campaign than they were in the previous one.

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9 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Was the phone snatched? No. Not at all.

Did Boris look at the phone? Yes.

Seriously this is just appalling journalism. Can’t believe you are falling for it

I saw what I saw mate. I saw a man who hope's to lead this country being chicken shit to look at a 4 year old boy who had pneumonia and was lying on a pile of coats. Whether he 'took' 'snatched' or 'grabbed' the fucking phone is moot. That you are zeroing on that as the salient point shows how backwards you have this. 

Edited by BigFatCoward

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2 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

I saw what I saw mate. I saw a man who hope's to lead this country being chicken shit to look at a 4 year old boy who had pneumonia and was lying on a pile of coats. Whether he 'took' 'snatched' or 'grabbed' the fucking phone is moot. That you are zeroing on that as the salient point shows how backwards you have this. 

It’s not moot though is it. There is a huge difference between someone snatching your phone and taking it after it is handed to them. It’s akin to saying you’ve been physically assaulted after someone pats you on the back. It’s completely dishonest.

In reality this journalist was there, trying to create a gotcha moment , as is unfortunately the style of journalism now, and Boris refused to fall for it. Boris says he’s willing to discuss specific cases later ( pretty standard for most politicians when this stuff is thrown at them). Eventually he gives in and looks at the phone, says it’s horrible and talks about what he wants to do about these things. 
 

So having failed to create that gotcha moment; this has initially been spun as Boris ‘snatching’ a phone ( booo Boris what a bastard) and then when that was obviously not true it’s being spun into ‘Boris refuses to look at photo of dying boy’ , which is playing really hard and fast with the truth.

I think this story is a brilliant example of viral political news right now. All the usual left wing outrage merchants are crying about it on Twitter, and their right wing counterparts are crying about how ridiculous it is. 
 

I know I don’t agree with with a lot of people on here but I did expect you guys to be above this.

 

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The phone was literally right in front of him and he couldn't bring himself to look, so he took it to remove the reporters ability to shame him with it. And since when is taking someones phone ok in whatever the circumstances?  Just so you dont have to look at the rampant misery your party have inflicted with their shameful policies.  

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39 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

I know I don’t agree with with a lot of people on here but I did expect you guys to be above this. 

It is not so much that you don't agree. It is that you have outright admitted to being amused at people worrying about Johnson winning an outright majority and using it to spend 5 years wrecking our country.

Edit: if you are going to disagree, then how about advancing some arguments as to why you think that the NHS will be safe in Johnson's hands. Can you manage that with a straight face I wonder?

Edited by A wilding

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ICM not herding. They are now an outlier but their 6% lead for the Tories does mean we go into the final two days with at least one poll showing the Tory lead knocking around on the edges of hung Parliament territory. Of course, a 6% lead does not mean a hung Parliament for sure: it could still be a Tory majority but it is the type of lead necessary to make that very uncertain.

I feel this election is a tease. It is 90% certain the Tories will win and get to work with the great act of national diminishment they propose but there is just enough evidence to sustain a sliver of a chance that the Great Charlatan is denied his victory. 

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 42% (-)

LAB: 36% (+1)

LDEM: 12% (-1)

BREX: 3% (-)

via @ICMResearch, 06 - 09 Dec Chgs. w/ 02 Dec

Edited by Chaircat Meow

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2 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

I saw what I saw mate. I saw a man who hope's to lead this country being chicken shit to look at a 4 year old boy who had pneumonia and was lying on a pile of coats. Whether he 'took' 'snatched' or 'grabbed' the fucking phone is moot. That you are zeroing on that as the salient point shows how backwards you have this. 

Aside from Boris' actions here the fact is a 4 Year old boy with pneumonia shouldn't have been treated this way at all, that is the most shameful thing about the whole scenario imo. Pneumonia is very serious for adults yet alone children whos immune systems are not nearly as developed, having spent over the last week seeing my toddler suffering with very nasty flu (she's thankfully much better now)the fact that a 4 year old was treated in this way is completely unacceptable and weather it was specifically down to Tory cuts or failings of a medical professional it needs to be addressed and not allowed to happen again.

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37 minutes ago, Jen'ari said:

weather it was specifically down to Tory cuts or failings of a medical professional it needs to be addressed and not allowed to happen again. 

I mean that is the point? That the NHS can't cope with its load because of cuts and that that sort of thing is what ends up happening?

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9 minutes ago, polishgenius said:

I mean that is the point? That the NHS can't cope with its load because of cuts and that that sort of thing is what ends up happening?

Nah. It's not cuts. Foreigners caused this shit remember. 

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10 hours ago, Werthead said:

I suspect one of Johnson's winning arguments is "Get Brexit done," which is appealing to many former Remainers who now don't care any more, would probably still vote Remain in a Ref3 but for whom the idea of getting the whole thing done, dealing with whatever economic downturn follows and then never hearing the word "Brexit" again is very appealing. The fact that Brexit will continue to be the dominant political issue, especially in foreign affairs, for the next 10-30 years is lost on them.

I think he was always likely to be heading for victory once he had a Brexit deal acceptable to both the EU and his own party, no matter how bad the deal itself may be. The biggest risk could have been Farage splitting the Leave vote by arguing Boris' deal didn't go far enough, but the Brexit Party decided to commit political suicide instead (and probably wouldn't have been successful enough even if they hadn't done that).

4 hours ago, Liffguard said:

I think anyone trying to predict an outcome with any degree of confidence is a mug, but fuck it, I feel like a mug half the time anyway, so I'll play.

I suspect we'll see a small but workable Tory majority, in the region of twenty seats or so. I also suspect that this will be just enough support for Johnson to get his deal passed, and that we'll be out of the EU early next year. I am not happy about this, and very earnestly hope I'm wrong. I think an outright Labour majority is vanishingly unlikely, and a hung Parliament leading to a minority Labour government is not totally out of the realm of possibility, but I definitely wouldn't put money on it.

Sadly, that's about what I expect to happen as well.

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26 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Nah. It's not cuts. Foreigners caused this shit remember. 

Yeah,bloody foreigners working in the NHS!

A good old British emergency doctor wouldn't have done that!

What do you meant there aren't any?

Well, well just have to train up our own, I mean, how long can it take to train a doctor in emergency medicine? We've got the best part of a year left!

 

Oh, and as for predictions... We're all fucked

Edited by Which Tyler

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19 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

Yeah,bloody foreigners working in the NHS!

A good old British emergency doctor wouldn't have done that!

What do you meant there aren't any?

Well, well just have to train up our own, I mean, how long can it take to train a doctor in emergency medicine? We've got the best part of a year left!

 

Oh, and as for predictions... We're all fucked

stealing our jobs, coming over here, saving our children. 

Edited by BigFatCoward

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5 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

Boris snatches phone from man trying to show him photo of 4 year old child forced to lie on hospital floor because of insufficient beds. What an absolute cunt. 

Clearly delinquent parents for not taking out a pay day loan to go to a private facility for their child's health needs. I mean if you are not willing to go into massive debt to care for your child, do you really deserve to be a parent?

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8 hours ago, Heartofice said:

It’s not moot though is it. There is a huge difference between someone snatching your phone and taking it after it is handed to them. It’s akin to saying you’ve been physically assaulted after someone pats you on the back. It’s completely dishonest.

 

There's a fairly significant difference between looking at a phone’s pictures when you're offered to do so and straight-Up pocketing someone phone the second, you get your hands on it.  Like, you understand if ask someone to look at something on your phone it doesn't mean, you're free to do whatever you want with the phone right? That the reporter was asking to look.at the photo now, not take his phone and keep it for a prolonged period. 

Hell, even Johnson said he was sorry for having taken the guy’s phone which kinda implies Johnson took it rather than being merely handed it. 

8 hours ago, Heartofice said:

Eventually he gives in and looks at the phone, says it’s horrible and talks about what he wants to do about these things. 

After immediately putting it in his pocket. He even after taking the phone was probably not going to look at It unless pressed, and proceeds to pretty much lie about supporting the NHS after finally looking and am commenting on the photo. 

Unless you think ”Support” amounts to cutting it, and eventually selling it off to the US. 

8 hours ago, Heartofice said:

So having failed to create that gotcha moment; this has initially been spun as Boris ‘snatching’ a phone ( booo Boris what a bastard) and then when that was obviously not true it’s being spun into ‘Boris refuses to look at photo of dying boy’ , which is playing really hard and fast with the truth.

 

It looks to be the truth. Whether or not you think Johnson was morally compelled to look at the photo is a different story. Also people are saying Johnson is a bastard, boo, how unfair. Personally, I do think this interview was meant to shame Johnson. If he simply walked away from the entanglement fine.  But to suggest, he did/said nothing weird, or simply atrocious, I find absurd. Honestly man, you keep defending the man in his least defensible moments or crank up quite frankly bizarre defenses of him that simply do not help him.  When his history of racism is pointed out such as him Him repeatedly using ethnic slurs and praising colonialism, you cry he wasn't serious because...he’s known to humorous, so criticizing him for past racist rhetoric is invalid. When found in a situation that strongly hinted that he had committed domestic violence, you act like his partner not having pressed charges is ironclad proof he definitely didn't do anything--I suspect you knew that victims during such disputes often don't press charges. 

 

On 12/7/2019 at 3:39 AM, mormont said:

I know you have a (misplaced) bee in your bonnet about the courts, but by any standards these pledges are horrific. They're deliberately vaguely worded, but have the clear intention of arrogating even more power to the executive branch and removing any checks and balances on that branch. Unless your entire philosophy is (and it may well be) that the executive can do whatever the fuck it wants, provided it submits itself to a vote that it controls whenever it decides to do so, this is all pretty disturbing.

Meh, Democracy, and checks against the government aren't really necessary.  Getting Brexit done is important because part of your culture needs to be protected the part that is...something.

Once government  is free to do whatever he pleases; then you will be free. 

Edited by Varysblackfyre321

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I wonder if the annals of history will not be kind to Corbyn and Swinson who, for their own reasons refused to cooperate in Sept and Oct to overthrow Johnson and secure a people's vote. They both instead chose to roll the dice on winning a GE, or at least preventing a hard Brexit majority govt, and might well have merely achieved a delay to that which they were so determined to prevent: a no deal Brexit, that despite a WA being passed by 31 Jan, might still end in a no deal outcome if nothing is done in the transition.

If the Conservatives oversee the shit really hitting the fan on Brexit, does that really secure Labour the next few elections (at what cost to the people?). Or does the necessary number of conservative voters mostly switch over to Lib Dem and really create a situation where for the next few elections no party gets an outright majority? While Corbyn or someone of his lefty alignment is the leader I can imagine centristy swing voters not swinging in behind Labour.

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