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Tywin Manderly

UK Politics: Who Pays the Andyman?

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Voted this morning but I’m not feeling particularly positive. There’s basically a bunch of not great outcomes and the worst one, Boris getting a majority, seems the most likely.

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12 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

Voted this morning but I’m not feeling particularly positive. There’s basically a bunch of not great outcomes and the worst one, Boris getting a majority, seems the most likely.

Yeah, i'm resigned to waking up tomorrow morning and having my whole Christmas spoiled.  Any scenario, even if it means labour losing massively but somehow Boris not getting a majority works for me right now. 

Edited by BigFatCoward

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3 hours ago, mormont said:

He's failed to make any serious inroads despite Johnson's stumbles. He needs to go.

Oh absolutely, even if I love a leader I don't think you should even attempt to stay on after 2 electoral losses.

I was thinking on that post of mine through the day and I don't think I got at my main point so well. It's not that I don't think you should be critical of Corbyn, it's that the failure isn't his alone. Labor (and Lib Dems) have really failed at rising to the challenges of the moment, and yes the leaders of course take the largest share of the blame but there's a similar failure across multiple countries in basically the same way against the same type of incompetent/corrupt/hateful conservative leaders. None of the parties seem to be turning out leaders that can break us out of it and we really need to find a way.

I'd get my back up if someone came into the Aussie thread and told me not to complain about our pathetic excuse for a left wing opposition leader right now, so sorry for essentially doing that to you. My frustration is with the people that will look at Corbyn and decide to ignore the wall to wall incompetence and corruption of the Tories and vote for them, not with people that are frustrated with their party leader failing them.

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Voted labour. Pretty certain this is a solidly labour constituency anyway, I kind of wish I was still registered back up North so it might help a bit. It did feel pretty good though. Not that a victory is looking particularly likely, but it felt good to vote at least. Wish we could do it more often. Same time next year Boris?

 

 

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I voted Labour in a strong SNP constituency.  So many ways to waste our votes in this democracy of ours. :P 

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I went out to vote this afternoon, the most interesting/frustrating thing to happen was the little one dropped her cuddly soft toy lion in a puddle which made her cry because I wouldn’t give it back all wet, perfectly sums up Election Day to me, anyway, voted Lib Dem, lets hope it helps.

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Will tactically vote SNP. My area has a large Jewish community so I think Labour have little chance. I think my MP is Tory.

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19 hours ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

Quite apart from the problem that turning Labour into the party of Remain results in a self-gerrymander under First Past the Post, to a degree where if the realignment continues, Labour would be better off coming out for proportional representation. 

I think if they ever want a majority again under FPTP they need to find some way to regain their former strength in Scotland. It's unlikely to be decisive in this election given their struggles elsewhere but in future it's difficult to see Labour getting a majority without their traditional 30-40 Scottish MPs. I've not seen any evidence they have any plan for doing that other than hoping the SNP implode at some point.

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55 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Its pissing down. Maybe all the old tories who are feeble won't fancy it. Or will slip over and break a hip. 

Most of them likely vote by post now.

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1 hour ago, BigFatCoward said:

Its pissing down. Maybe all the old tories who are feeble won't fancy it. Or will slip over and break a hip. 

Traditionally rain helps the status quo: people who favour the current situation are less likely to vote in bad weather. The referendum may have been influenced by it (albeit not to the tune of a million votes), as Remainers already convinced by the polls they were going to win would have stayed home.

The problem with this election is that both sides have done a good job of galvanising their bases, so that may not have much impact.

Anecdotally, lots of reports on social media of massive queues at polling stations up and down the country, including places in London where you usually just stroll in where people are waiting 45+ minutes. Again anecdotally, lots of reports of young people voting, but without knowing the postal vote tallies (reportedly between 25 and 30% of votes this time have been cast by post) that might be not particularly germane.

A couple of stories on social media about students not being able to vote at their university address despite registering, and some of students jumping on trains/in cars to travel halfway across the country before the polls close to get their votes in. Of course, with the media blackout it's impossible to tell if that's a normal, small-scale balls-up or a much bigger problem.

One bizarre thing is that in the last 48 hours my Facebook feed was absolutely bombarded by pro-Tory bullshit ads, repeating completely discredited nonsense about the Labour manifesto. Absolutely nothing comparable from the Labour side. That's decidedly unsettling, especially when you consider the people looking at social media with no bullshit filter.

Quote

Most of them likely vote by post now.

My older family members seem to uniformly distrust postal voting as "you don't know who's getting their hands on it" and prefer to vote in person.

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24 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Traditionally rain helps the status quo: people who favour the current situation are less likely to vote in bad weather. The referendum may have been influenced by it (albeit not to the tune of a million votes), as Remainers already convinced by the polls they were going to win would have stayed home.

The problem with this election is that both sides have done a good job of galvanising their bases, so that may not have much impact.

Anecdotally, lots of reports on social media of massive queues at polling stations up and down the country, including places in London where you usually just stroll in where people are waiting 45+ minutes. Again anecdotally, lots of reports of young people voting, but without knowing the postal vote tallies (reportedly between 25 and 30% of votes this time have been cast by post) that might be not particularly germane.

A couple of stories on social media about students not being able to vote at their university address despite registering, and some of students jumping on trains/in cars to travel halfway across the country before the polls close to get their votes in. Of course, with the media blackout it's impossible to tell if that's a normal, small-scale balls-up or a much bigger problem.

One bizarre thing is that in the last 48 hours my Facebook feed was absolutely bombarded by pro-Tory bullshit ads, repeating completely discredited nonsense about the Labour manifesto. Absolutely nothing comparable from the Labour side. That's decidedly unsettling, especially when you consider the people looking at social media with no bullshit filter.

My older family members seem to uniformly distrust postal voting as "you don't know who's getting their hands on it" and prefer to vote in person.

For me my bullshit filter is not using Facebook. Or Twitter.

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I voted Liberal. The Tories have no chance in my constituency so I was effectively just voting against Corbyn.

However, if I were in a Con/Lab marginal I would not have been a happy bunny. I would probably have voted tactically for Labour given it looks impossible for them to win a majority anyway but wouldn't have been able to rule out a last minute fizzle. If I had fizzled I would have abstained or spoiled though - I would never vote for the Great Charlatan. 

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19 minutes ago, maarsen said:

For me my bullshit filter is not using Facebook. Or Twitter.

Excellent for you, but not for the many millions of British people who do.

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So other than at BFCs place, how was the weather up there? Has polling closed yet? Must be close to starting to get some exit poll data.

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25 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

So other than at BFCs place, how was the weather up there? Has polling closed yet? Must be close to starting to get some exit poll data.

I drove half way across the country today and it pissed it down all the way with me. Horrible day.

Exit poll in about 80 mins when polls close.

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2 hours ago, Werthead said:

Traditionally rain helps the status quo: people who favour the current situation are less likely to vote in bad weather. The referendum may have been influenced by it (albeit not to the tune of a million votes), as Remainers already convinced by the polls they were going to win would have stayed home.

The problem with this election is that both sides have done a good job of galvanising their bases, so that may not have much impact.

Anecdotally, lots of reports on social media of massive queues at polling stations up and down the country, including places in London where you usually just stroll in where people are waiting 45+ minutes. Again anecdotally, lots of reports of young people voting, but without knowing the postal vote tallies (reportedly between 25 and 30% of votes this time have been cast by post) that might be not particularly germane.

A couple of stories on social media about students not being able to vote at their university address despite registering, and some of students jumping on trains/in cars to travel halfway across the country before the polls close to get their votes in. Of course, with the media blackout it's impossible to tell if that's a normal, small-scale balls-up or a much bigger problem.

One bizarre thing is that in the last 48 hours my Facebook feed was absolutely bombarded by pro-Tory bullshit ads, repeating completely discredited nonsense about the Labour manifesto. Absolutely nothing comparable from the Labour side. That's decidedly unsettling, especially when you consider the people looking at social media with no bullshit filter.

My older family members seem to uniformly distrust postal voting as "you don't know who's getting their hands on it" and prefer to vote in person.

That was deliberate.  Dominic Cummings unleashed an absolute fortune in terms of advertising on social media in 48 hours.

Well, how did I vote?  I voted for Gavin Shuker in my constituency, who resigned from Labour over anti-semitism.  He ended his political career at that point, as Luton South will always vote Labour, but I thought he deserved recognition for it.

I still dread the prospect of Corbyn as PM.  

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10 minutes ago, SeanF said:

That was deliberate.  Dominic Cummings unleashed an absolute fortune in terms of advertising on social media in 48 hours.

Well, how did I vote?  I voted for Gavin Shuker in my constituency, who resigned from Labour over anti-semitism.  He ended his political career at that point, as Luton South will always vote Labour, but I thought he deserved recognition for it.

I still dread the prospect of Corbyn as PM.  

What can Corbyn do, really, if he's PM but of a minority / coalition govt? My guess is if there's a hung Parliament and Labour cobbles together a coalition it probably only lasts until a people's vote is held and Brexit really is finally done(-ish, if the people's vote = Brexit then there's still a shit load more to do before Brexit's final form is established) then it collapses. Meaning another election within a year of this one, but without Brexit as a battle line.

I think the conventional wisdom of Labour not being remotely likely to get an outright majority is sound.

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arrrggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh   please be wrong

 

 

exit poll   con 368,  lab 191  lib dem 13  snp 55  green 1

 

Edited by Pebble thats Stubby

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17 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

What can Corbyn do, really, if he's PM but of a minority / coalition govt? My guess is if there's a hung Parliament and Labour cobbles together a coalition it probably only lasts until a people's vote is held and Brexit really is finally done(-ish, if the people's vote = Brexit then there's still a shit load more to do before Brexit's final form is established) then it collapses. Meaning another election within a year of this one, but without Brexit as a battle line.

I think the conventional wisdom of Labour not being remotely likely to get an outright majority is sound.

If a Lib/Lab/SNP coalition puts Brexit to bed and does nothing else, that's a bloody miracle and I think a lot of people would actually be happier with that than a labour majority. I certainly wouldn't be disappointed given the likelihood instead of a small Tory majority or some bullshit.

 

ETA: Fuck me

Edited by Leap

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