Mel & Shireen

[divica]

2 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

I don’t this makes much sense. Massey hasn’t even arrived at CB yet (or EbtS) and his journey isn’t going to be easy. I mean, they don’t even have any ships left at the mo. Then travelling to Braavos, hiring thousands of sellswords and whatnot, travelling back, etc. It will take months, and that’s an optimistic take on it. 

Exactly because of this he needs to lay low for a few months until the resources the Money from the IB got him arrive. It would be pretty idiotic if he dies before he has his sellswords because of a fight he insisted to fight.

2 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

No, Stannis faking his death is a ruse he will use. I think the Manderlys have switched sides already, and are in on it. 

Actually, the manderlys probably won t switch sides. Like only a few men know about the karstark betrayl few or maybe no one knows about wyman's plans. And as far as we know wyman might not even have left winterfell because of his injury. And even if he left he probably isn t in condition to plot anything...

2 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

He won’t use siege weapons. He will use the Manderlys, captured Freys (armours, banners, etc), he will use info he will get from Bran via Theon, and he will use the fact that 99,99% of the people inside Winterfell hate the Boltons (and Freys).

We are one of those stannis is the manis fans aren t we?

First, 50% of the soldiers inside winterfell are Bolton men. At the moment it isn t likely that stannis has the manderlys because of wyman's injury. I think there is zero evidence to bran talking through Theon. I doubt the clans will stay with stannis through his battles (there is enough evidence that they dislike him and his southerns and they joined him to save farya and it is already done). 

Finally, acording to the text ramsay will face stannis outside of winterfell and acording to logic he should join the freys and manderlys before the battle (otherwise what is he doing there?). That invalidates most of these speculations if we assume ramsay wrote the PL.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

^This. He'll use the Karstark soldiers for it as well. While the Karstark castellan and his family allied with Stannis to betray him, the men themselves wouldn't know of this. You don't keep a secret by telling all of your soldiers. You just give them the order when the time is ripe. So, most of Karstark's men expect to fight alongside Stannis.

If you substitute karstark for manderly, castellan and his familly for wyman and stannis for boltons then you have the same situation on the other side. 

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

If Stannis is very very cunning, then he could switch Theon and Arnolf and send Theon seemingly to Karhold with men of his choice in Karstark livery and a thick fur coat. To the Karstark soldiers it would look as if their castellan is being granted benevolence. And then he sacrifices Arnolf on the island, pretending Arnolf is Theon. And the Karstark soldiers are Stannis' to command.

Come on… Theon lost fingers, is a mess phisically and karstark men would recognise the face and voice of arnolf… Unless you are saying he could send theon there so that he doesn t talk, has an helmet all the time and stays far away from any karstark… It doesn t sound very usefull.

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 12/2/2019 at 7:53 PM, Coffeewiththegods said:

Is it possible that upon hearing of Stannis’s “Death” in the pink letter, Mel Desperately burns shireen asking to bring back azor ahai and Jon rises instead? And this becomes the catalyst for Mel following jon...I do believe that Jon will spend some time in ghost, but maybe somehow the death of shireen brings him back to his body somehow. I have another theory(based on absolutely nothing lol)that Mel knows about Jon switching the babies and that is why she will jump straight to burning shireen.

That does seem to be the point of Melisandre, Shireen, and Selyse. And as for the wee barin, presumed to be the son of the Mance, why not two kings to wake the dragon? 

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 12/2/2019 at 8:05 PM, Jon The Dragon said:

Would burning Shireen be classed as waking a dragon from stone? Val doesn't like Shireen too much, she could have a part to play in it.

Why yes, I think it might. Shireen has greyscale, which is stone-like to the touch. The poor souls afflicted with greyscale about the Sorrows are called the Stone Men. And that might be why the George had Jon switch the babies, so we would know that the only king's blood being sacrificed is Shireen's the little stone girl. 

Of course, Jon Snow would have to be The Dragon. 

[sweetsunray]

25 minutes ago, divica said:

Come on… Theon lost fingers, is a mess phisically and karstark men would recognise the face and voice of arnolf… Unless you are saying he could send theon there so that he doesn t talk, has an helmet all the time and stays far away from any karstark… It doesn t sound very usefull.

Huddle him in a big fur cloak of Arnolf, put him on a horse, and let him ride off during the snowfall. Nobody's gonna walk up to a man on a horse over ten yards away to count his fingers. Arnolf shuffles because of age, Theon shuffles because of his torture. Theon looks like an old man. Arnolf is an old man. Just make sure it's snowing and he's largely hidden in the clothes.

[divica]

1 minute ago, sweetsunray said:

Big fur cloak of Arnolf, put him on a horse, and let him ride off during the snowfall. Nobody's gonna walk up to a man on a horse over ten yards away to count his fingers.

But then anyone could pass as arnolf. Why use theon and not someone he completly trusts?

[sweetsunray]

3 minutes ago, divica said:

But then anyone could pass as arnolf. Why use theon and not someone he completly trusts?

Because Theon knows the secret door into the Dreadfort. And you don't send Theon on his own of course, but with bodyguards that Stannis does trust. Nor do you want any of the Karstark soldiers discover you burned their castellan. You can't keep Theon around either. 

BTW, not my idea, but Cantuse's.

[divica]

Just now, sweetsunray said:

Because Theon knows the secret door into the Dreadfort.

And you are sugesting he will lead karstark men some place without talking to them or getting close enough that they can see his face? 

And why would stannis trust theon?

[kissdbyfire]

9 minutes ago, divica said:

Exactly because of this he needs to lay low for a few months until the resources the Money from the IB got him arrive. It would be pretty idiotic if he dies before he has his sellswords because of a fight he insisted to fight.

Marching back to CB isn’t an optionThey don’t have food, the men are exhausted, and Winter is here. It would take them well over a month to get there, and that’s counting hunger and bad weather as the only difficulties they would face. And we know, as does Stannis, that he has an incoming army coming to engage him. So, trying to run back to the Wall, given all of the above, is what would be idiotic and pointless. IMO.

9 minutes ago, divica said:

Actually, the manderlys probably won t switch sides. Like only a few men know about the karstark betrayl few or maybe no one knows about wyman's plans.

And? The Manderly men, the ones that go out to find Stannis right after the Freys don’t have to be in on Manderly’s secret meetings w/ Davos, nor of their deal. It’s very clear that the Manderlys and Freys hate each other. On one side we have the RW, and on the other we have Frey pies - sure, no one knows they’ve eaten Freys, but the Freys are pretty certain Manderly killed those guys. And Roose strongly suspects as well. They started fighting inside Winterfell, and when the Manderlys arrive at the CV behind the Freys and see what’s going on, they’re gonna fall on their rear and help Stannis. 

9 minutes ago, divica said:

And as far as we know wyman might not even have left winterfell because of his injury. And even if he left he probably isn t in condition to plot anything...

There’s no “might”, he most certainly didn’t go, and that’s if he’s even still alive. 

9 minutes ago, divica said:

We are one of those stannis is the manis fans aren t we?

Not sure what you mean.

9 minutes ago, divica said:

First, 50% of the soldiers inside winterfell are Bolton men.

Not even close. The Boltons were already disliked before the RW, and now they’re almost unanimously hated. Apart from the Freys, who have already left, and maybe some Ryswell and Dustin men - and IMO this is a big maybe -everyone and their dogs will turn on Bolton if given half a chance. 

9 minutes ago, divica said:

At the moment it isn t likely that stannis has the manderlys because of wyman's injury.

See above.

9 minutes ago, divica said:

I think there is zero evidence to bran talking through Theon.

The fact that you don’t see it doesn’t really make for a great argument, does it? 

9 minutes ago, divica said:

I doubt the clans will stay with stannis through his battles (there is enough evidence that they dislike him and his southerns and they joined him to save farya and it is already done). 

They may not like Stannis, but rest assured, they hate the Boltons even more. And are going to hate and despise even them even more if they learn the details of what happened to Jeyne Poole. 

Remember what Wull said? He wants to bathe in Bolton blood. The Boltons are hated, as are the Freys. And between Stannis and the Boltons, the clans will see this as a “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” scenario. 

9 minutes ago, divica said:

Finally, acording to the text ramsay will face stannis outside of winterfell

Not sure what you mean here.

9 minutes ago, divica said:

and acording to logic he should join the freys and manderlys before the battle (otherwise what is he doing there?). That invalidates most of these speculations if we assume ramsay wrote the PL.

Why?

 

[sweetsunray]

Just now, divica said:

And you are sugesting he will lead karstark men some place without talking to them or getting close enough that they can see his face? 

And why would stannis trust theon?

No, Cantuse proposed that Theon is sent with men Stannis trust on a mission to infiltrate the Dreadfort, after doing a switcheroo, making it look to the Karstark men that remain with Stannis at the ice lakes that he's sending Arnolf on his way, while it's really Theon. Meanwhile Stannis would sacrifice Arnolf, saying he's Theon.

In either case, Karstark men are placed at a distance where they can't really identify either of them up close.

[Jon The Dragon]

I can see the Manderly force coming in behind the Freys and forcing them onto the lake. The Karstarks and maybe the Manderly force may be able to approach Winterfell after the battle and make out Arnolf has died (Being a captive ensures their loyalty), they could also say Stannis has died (maybe produce a burnt corpse as proof or his sword), leading Ramsay to think the battle is won. This extra force inside the walls might be able to tip the balance of power into the Northmen's hands. Then they can open the gates to the forces outside. I think the truth about Theons actions with Bran and Rickon will come to light and he avoids being executed.
I do agree there is a possibility Bran tells Theon the way inside, as another option of taking Winterfell. I don't know if he Hodors Theon though.  It could happen many ways. Either way, The Freys and The Boltons are living on borrowed time.

That course of events could also mean Mance wrote the letter thinking the battle is lost, and is trying to provoke Jon to come with the Wildlings, Mel (because he knows her power) and his family to come down from CB. I don't have a clue who wrote it, I'm open to all suggestions. This wouldn't explain why he want's Selyse and Shireen though.

[divica]

3 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Marching back to CB isn’t an optionThey don’t have food, the men are exhausted, and Winter is here. It would take them well over a month to get there, and that’s counting hunger and bad weather as the only difficulties they would face. And we know, as does Stannis, that he has an incoming army coming to engage him. So, trying to run back to the Wall, given all of the above, is what would be idiotic and pointless. IMO

Stannis would only leave after fighting the freys and faking his death. And in regards to food he doesn t need to march directly to CB. Why not make a stop at deephood mote? He saved them from the IB... And he can be disguised as a comon soldier while he is there.

8 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

And? The Manderly men, the ones that go out to find Stannis right after the Freys don’t have to be in on Manderly’s secret meetings w/ Davos, nor of their deal. It’s very clear that the Manderlys and Freys hate each other. On one side we have the RW, and on the other we have Frey pies - sure, no one knows they’ve eaten Freys, but the Freys are pretty certain Manderly killed those guys. And Roose strongly suspects as well. They started fighting inside Winterfell, and when the Manderlys arrive at the CV behind the Freys and see what’s going on, they’re gonna fall on their rear and help Stannis. 

No they won t. I have no idea who is in charge of the manderley forces but as far as they know their lord told them to fight for the boltons. If they aid stannis they would be betraying wyman. Are you sugesting they are ok with becoming enemies with wyman and all their freinds that fight for wyman?

Either the people in charge know about wyman's plan and they might help stannis (don t forget that stannis has zero reasons to trust anything wyman says or writes) or they don t and they definitly won t help stannis because it would mean betraying wyman's orders.

15 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Not even close. The Boltons were already disliked before the RW, and now they’re almost unanimously hated. Apart from the Freys, who have already left, and maybe some Ryswell and Dustin men - and IMO this is a big maybe -everyone and their dogs will turn on Bolton if given half a chance. 

And nothing you said invalidates that half the men in winterfell are Bolton soldiers. At least from what I read in some discussion here someone made the math that the soldiers all the other houses put together were aproximatly the same number of soldiers roose brought (I think it was either 2k or 4K on each side).

18 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

The fact that you don’t see it doesn’t really make for a great argument, does it?

That is why I said I think there wasn t. I kind of expected some evidence to support your idea instead of a snarky coment. That doesn t really support bran talking through theon does it?

20 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

They may not like Stannis, but rest assured, they hate the Boltons even more. And are going to hate and despise even them even more if they learn the details of what happened to Jeyne Poole. 

Remember what Wull said? He wants to bathe in Bolton blood. The Boltons are hated, as are the Freys. And between Stannis and the Boltons, the clans will see this as a “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” scenario. 

The problem is if they attack winterfell they won t bathe in Bolton blood. They will bathe in blood from a lot of inocent northerns they have nothing against. And if we add their discontent with stannis, farya being safe and how impossible it seems for them to suceed why would they go along to a battle they are sure to lose?

Besides, with farya being safe things change. I think they need to discuss who will be in charge of the north if they defeat the boltons before attacking winterfel. And they might not like the answer...

24 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Not sure what you mean here

I mean that theon tells stannis that he should fear ramsay and that he will march after the freys and manderlys. Theon was pretty sure that ramsay won t stay in winterfell.

26 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Why?

Why would ramsay leave winterfell if it isn t to participate in the battle? At least to oversee it from a safe distance? 

And as long as ramsay is present during the fight then he can t be fooled by a lot of the sugestions you made...

[kissdbyfire]

4 minutes ago, Jon The Dragon said:

I don't know if he Hodors Theon though. 

He will, and easily b/c once Theon realises what’s going on he will offer no resistance. After all, the Old Gods know him, and know his name, as he says quite a few times. 

If you want you can read more here, although that post doesn’t have half the evidence I found. But hey, I grew tired of fighting w/ reddit and thought what’s there is enough. I also made a post about it here back when Dance came out, but will never be able to find it now! 

 

[divica]

26 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

No, Cantuse proposed that Theon is sent with men Stannis trust on a mission to infiltrate the Dreadfort, after doing a switcheroo, making it look to the Karstark men that remain with Stannis at the ice lakes that he's sending Arnolf on his way, while it's really Theon. Meanwhile Stannis would sacrifice Arnolf, saying he's Theon.

In either case, Karstark men are placed at a distance where they can't really identify either of them up close.

That wasn t what you first wrote.

With this I agree, It makes sense for me. It would be pretty smart and probably work on both fronts.

[Jon The Dragon]

So Theon is now Thor  

[sweetsunray]

3 minutes ago, divica said:

That wasn t what you first wrote.

With this I agree, It makes sense for me. It would be pretty smart and probably work on both fronts.

Then you misunderstood me, because that's the idea I wanted to describe. As I said, not my idea, but Cantuse's, and published on his blog years ago along with his night lamp theory.

[divica]

5 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

He will, and easily b/c once Theon realises what’s going on he will offer no resistance. After all, the Old Gods know him, and know his name, as he says quite a few times. 

If you want you can read more here, although that post doesn’t have half the evidence I found. But hey, I grew tired of fighting w/ reddit and thought what’s there is enough. I also made a post about it here back when Dance came out, but will never be able to find it now! 

 

Have you seen how people react when they are being warged? It is an awfull experience. I dont think you can just accept it...

Then it should be impossible to warg something through the Wall.

If you want strange phenomena it is much more likely that bran will talk through the weirwood tree or the wind than through theon. This would actually seem like the old gods talking while if he wargs theon is just super creepy.

[kissdbyfire]

3 minutes ago, divica said:

Stannis would only leave after fighting the freys and faking his death. And in regards to food he doesn t need to march directly to CB. Why not make a stop at deephood mote? He saved them from the IB... And he can be disguised as a comon soldier while he is there.

So, he fights the Freys, fakes his death, and goes walking around in snowstorms disguised as a common soldier? Stops at DM, and... remains disguised as a common soldier? Or not? And then goes to the Wall, and? Waits for the sellswords that, if they come, it will be months down the road? Seriously,  it doesn’t make a lick of sense IMO.

3 minutes ago, divica said:

No they won t. I have no idea who is in charge of the manderley forces but as far as they know their lord told them to fight for the boltons. If they aid stannis they would be betraying wyman. Are you sugesting they are ok with becoming enemies with wyman and all their freinds that fight for wyman?

So, you have no idea who is in charge, but you are dead certain this person doesn’t know anything about Manderly hating the Freys, even w/ Freys and Manderlys at each other’s throats just a while back? I find it unlikely that every Manderly man knows the details, but find it a real possibility that whoever is leading them not only knows but has been properly instructed by Wyman. 

3 minutes ago, divica said:

Either the people in charge know about wyman's plan and they might help stannis (don t forget that stannis has zero reasons to trust anything wyman says or writes) or they don t and they definitly won t help stannis because it would mean betraying wyman's orders.

See above.

3 minutes ago, divica said:

And nothing you said invalidates that half the men in winterfell are Bolton soldiers. At least from what I read in some discussion here someone made the math that the soldiers all the other houses put together were aproximatly the same number of soldiers roose brought (I think it was either 2k or 4K on each side).

My point is that when everyone joins together against Roose he won’t have any advantage. 

3 minutes ago, divica said:

That is why I said I think there wasn t. I kind of expected some evidence to support your idea instead of a snarky coment. That doesn t really support bran talking through theon does it?

It wasn’t meant to be snarky. But you saying, “I don’t see it” w/o offering anything to explain why you don’t see it really doesn’t make for a great argument.

3 minutes ago, divica said:

The problem is if they attack winterfell they won t bathe in Bolton blood. They will bathe in blood from a lot of inocent northerns they have nothing against.

No, they won’t. Because the second people realise what’s going on, most of not all non-Bolton northerner will turn on Roose.

3 minutes ago, divica said:

And if we add their discontent with stannis, farya being safe and how impossible it seems for them to suceed why would they go along to a battle they are sure to lose?

Because they are not as sure as you are that they will be defeated.

3 minutes ago, divica said:

Besides, with farya being safe things change. I think they need to discuss who will be in charge of the north if they defeat the boltons before attacking winterfel. And they might not like the answer...

But if they don’t fight the Boltons because “they are sure to lose” how would they be in a position to talk about who leads in north after the Boltons are defeated? 

3 minutes ago, divica said:

I mean that theon tells stannis that he should fear ramsay and that he will march after the freys and manderlys. Theon was pretty sure that ramsay won t stay in winterfell.

Why would ramsay leave winterfell if it isn t to participate in the battle? At least to oversee it from a safe distance? 

He will leave, and that’s how he will learn of Stannis’ “death”. 

3 minutes ago, divica said:

And as long as ramsay is present during the fight then he can t be fooled by a lot of the sugestions you made...

He didn’t leave w/ the Freys, it’s unlikely he would have left w/ the Manderlys. He will probably go looking for his bride and only try to get to the CV once he finds no trace of fArya. 

[kissdbyfire]

7 minutes ago, divica said:

Have you seen how people react when they are being warged? It is an awfull experience. I dont think you can just accept it...

People can’t be warged, only skinchanged into. Regardless, can you tell how guilty Theon feels for all the horrible things he’s done? Did you notice how he’s almost happy when he realises the OG know his name? He is ready to try to redeem himself, and once he understands that it’s Bran reaching out to him, I think it is possible that he will offer no resistance and let Bran use him as a vessel. 

7 minutes ago, divica said:

Then it should be impossible to warg something through the Wall.

Why?

7 minutes ago, divica said:

If you want strange phenomena it is much more likely that bran will talk through the weirwood tree or the wind than through theon. This would actually seem like the old gods talking while if he wargs theon is just super creepy.

No, that would be ridiculous IMO. To have a rustling of wind on leaves make a sound that seems like a word is one thing. To hold an entire and detailed conversation like that would be like something out of a bad Disney film. 

[sweetsunray]

25 minutes ago, divica said:

Then it should be impossible to warg something through the Wall.

Really? So, Bran or Bloodraven don't skinchange Jon's raven at times? How about the ravens in the tower with Stannis and Theon calling out for "tree" and "Theon"? Sounds like Bran and Bloodraven manage fine with skinchanging through the Wall.

[divica]

3 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

So, he fights the Freys, fakes his death, and goes walking around in snowstorms disguised as a common soldier? Stops at DM, and... remains disguised as a common soldier? Or not? And then goes to the Wall, and? Waits for the sellswords that, if they come, it will be months down the road? Seriously,  it doesn’t make a lick of sense IMO.

It makes sense because he needs more men, food and resources to take winterfell and he know for certain those will arrive after some months.

From what we know his army might not even be in condition to fight for winterfell if they open the gates. They have a daily death toll of 60 people… Can you guess how many people are sick, starving and exausted in stannis army? And they will have one big battle and then march straight into another? Because I highly doubt he can desguise hundreds of northerns as freys and nobody takes notice for several days… The people in winterfell spent weeks together, they must know a lot of the frey men...Besides the fact that they should talk and look diferently...

12 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

So, you have no idea who is in charge, but you are dead certain this person doesn’t know anything about Manderly hating the Freys, even w/ Freys and Manderlys at each other’s throats just a while back? I find it unlikely that every Manderly man knows the details, but find it a real possibility that whoever is leading them not only knows but has been properly instructed by Wyman.

I didn t say that. I said that if the people in charge have only been told that they are supporting the boltons they won t turn on the freys and support stannis who his the enemy of the boltons and maderlys.

And if only the familly knew about the karstark betrayal why should it be diferent with the manderlys? Why have wyman out of action if it doesn t have any effect? 

I think that with the facts we are given it is very likely that the manderlys don t know about wyman's plan and will fight stannis in a mirror situation with the karstarks that will fight the freys because they don  t know about arnolf plans.

18 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

No, they won’t. Because the second people realise what’s going on, most of not all non-Bolton northerner will turn on Roose.

But the clanmen don t know that. Even if they help stannis defeat the freys they will still think that roose has the support of the other houses if they attack winterfell.

19 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Because they are not as sure as you are that they will be defeated.

They have no food, no siege weapons and their army is sick and exausted while wintefell is full of fresh people. They have zero chances of winning in a normal fight.

21 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

But if they don’t fight the Boltons because “they are sure to lose” how would they be in a position to talk about who leads in north after the Boltons are defeated?

Because instead of saving farya and avenging the RW now they are fighting to put someone in charge of the north. If they don t like who they are fighting for why fight at all?

23 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

He will leave, and that’s how he will learn of Stannis’ “death”. 

He didn’t leave w/ the Freys, it’s unlikely he would have left w/ the Manderlys. He will probably go looking for his bride and only try to get to the CV once he finds no trace of fArya. 

That isn t what theon thinks. And theon knows ramsay. Besides, I have no idea why you think that the manderleys and freys won t join forces before atacking stannis. Even if they hate each other that is the bare minimum they must do...

Another important aspect to take into account is that it is unlikely that stannis can kill all freys. There are always soldiers that survive and ran away… And in this case the freys are all on horses. How can stannis stop the freys from running once they see the battle is lost?

Also, do you think ramsay will travel some days with a bunch of fake freys and not notice they are northerns? The accents must be diferent...