Mel & Shireen

[Jon The Dragon]

Prophet Theon would be quite funny, from hated by The North to be revered by them. Maybe that's what the Tree Tree Tree thing is about. No Hodoring, no warging. Just the Old Gods talking.

I don't think Stannis will go back to the wall yet, if ever. The North is going to eat him up after Winterfell falls in my opinion. I believe the wench is going to give him a taste of Oathkeeper.

[divica]

11 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

And the Frey baggage train would have supplies with them for 6 days when they left WF, using 3 by the time they reach the Crofter's village. So, if they defeat the Freys, they've got more than 3 days of food to support them, because they don't need to share the food with horses. And the victory would give them extra vigour.

Don t horses eat grass? Why do you think people can eat horse food?

And while they don t have heavy horses they have the northern's horses.

16 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

And how long did it really take them? I'll answer that for you. In 15 days they hadn't even covered half the distance, and it took them thirty three days to reach CV. Winterfell is 3 days away.

 

15 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Exactly. And the weather is even worse now. 

If you say the weather is even worse now then WF is not 3 days away, 

I would also like to know how stannis can disguise his men as freys and justify them not having horses.

[Jon The Dragon]

2 minutes ago, divica said:

Don t horses eat grass? Why do you think people can eat horse food?

The snow might cover all that grass.

 

4 minutes ago, divica said:

I would also like to know how stannis can disguise his men as freys and justify them not having horses.

He can send The Manderlys and Karstarks back there in their own uniforms / armour. In the eyes of the people in Winterfell it's allies coming back from battle. They don't need The Freys or their clothes at all I don't think.

[kissdbyfire]

3 minutes ago, divica said:

Don t horses eat grass? Why do you think people can eat horse food?

 

Horses eat many things, as long as it’s vegan. They’re smart. Point is, horses eat grain, too, and hay. Not much chance of finding grass in snow, don’t you think? 

 

3 minutes ago, divica said:

If you say the weather is even worse now then WF is not 3 days away, 

Maybe not, but certainly a hell of lot less than DM or CB. 

3 minutes ago, divica said:

I would also like to know how stannis can disguise his men as freys and justify them not having horses.

I reckon they’ll get some horses from the Freys they kill. 

[sweetsunray]

7 minutes ago, divica said:

Don t horses eat grass? Why do you think people can eat horse food?

I'm sorry, Divica, but I think you should read up on war lore and organization of it, because that question right there shows you know zero on the subject. No, they don't eat just "grass". Warhorses eat turnips, carrots, fruits - starch and sugar (and yes, people eat turnips, carrots and fruits as well). A large part of the baggage trains of food are meant for the horses. That's why armies with heavy horse are so notoriouosly slow: they require to take a whole train of carts with them to feed the horses, and they can only go as fast as the carts with the food supply for the horses.

The northern horses are less of an issue, as they have adapted to survival in a climate where there's loads of snow. Nor are they heavy horse and thus require much less food (energy) to make it go places.

 

[divica]

13 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I reckon they’ll get some horses from the Freys they kill. 

Not enough to disguise his men as all the freys that survived. 

12 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

I'm sorry, Divica, but I think you should read up on war lore and organization of it, because that question right there shows you know zero on the subject. No, they don't eat just "grass". Warhorses eat turnips, carrots, fruits - starch and sugar (and yes, people eat turnips, carrots and fruits as well). A large part of the baggage trains of food are meant for the horses. That's why armies with heavy horse are so notoriouosly slow: they require to take a whole train of carts with them to feed the horses, and they can only go as fast as the carts with the food supply for the horses.

 

 

13 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Horses eat many things, as long as it’s vegan. They’re smart. Point is, horses eat grain, too, and hay. Not much chance of finding grass in snow, don’t you think? 

I had no idea what horses eat. For me it was alwas some kind of herbs… 

And on the theme of food. If the weather is worse then the freys took more than 3 days to get to CV so they have less food on their baggage train.

13 minutes ago, Jon The Dragon said:

He can send The Manderlys and Karstarks back there in their own uniforms / armour. In the eyes of the people in Winterfell it's allies coming back from battle. They don't need The Freys or their clothes at all I don't think.

But then we have some of the same problems

As long as some freys survivors can run and return to winterfell they would tell the boltons that the karstarks didn t act acording to plan.

And if we are taking into acount the bad weather then it is extremelly unlikely that anyone can follow freys riding to winterfell.

 

ps. And once again. Taking into acount the bad weather, the day theon spent with stannis, the day od battle and the time to march to winterfell (more than 3 days) how many men in stannis army will die? more than 400?

[kissdbyfire]

1 minute ago, divica said:

Not enough to disguise his men as all the freys that survived.

This doesn’t make sense. They don’t need horses for all the surviving Freys. However many Frey horses they get, that’s how many Freys survived, you know, that’s the “official” version and that’s it. 

[Jon The Dragon]

The Freys are going to get slaughtered, I don't think any of them escape. If they go into that lake then it might be a bit hard to get the clothing off of them.

[divica]

Just now, kissdbyfire said:

This doesn’t make sense. They don’t need horses for all the surviving Freys. However many Frey horses they get, that’s how many Freys survived, you know, that’s the “official” version and that’s it. 

they need hundreds of freys in order to sell a victory over stannis no?

And they will have to justify why no known frey or karstark is with the victorious frey/karstark army.

 

[sweetsunray]

3 minutes ago, divica said:

they need hundreds of freys in order to sell a victory over stannis no?

And they will have to justify why no known frey or karstark is with the victorious frey/karstark army.

 

They don't need to do that. Just send a "vanguard"  or "outriders" to inform Roose and Ramsay of the happy news, ahead of the rest of the army "returning".

[Jon The Dragon]

9 minutes ago, divica said:

they need hundreds of freys in order to sell a victory over stannis no?

And they will have to justify why no known frey or karstark is with the victorious frey/karstark army.

Both forces left Winterfell through different gates, it would make sense if they arrived at battle at different times too. Roose knows the Manderlys and The Northern houses have no love for Freys. If the Karstarks return to Winterfell with just the Umbers (Edited, Manderlys, I'm being thick ) then Roose will think his plan with them worked, and they betrayed Stannis. Especially if they produce 'Lightbringer'

[divica]

1 minute ago, sweetsunray said:

They don't need to do that. Just send a "vanguard" to inform Roose and Ramsay of the happy news, ahead of the rest of the army "returning".

That is the first plan of stannis infiltrating WF that I think could work.

Sending a vanguard with news, ramsay writes the PL, vanguard opens the gates and stannis attacks.

The only problem is theon thinking ramsay would also ride to the CV.

But another serious problem I see with all this is. What is the point?

Stannis army will spend at least 6 days in the snow (day/night theon arrives, day of battle, at least 4 days of marching not counting the time needed to wait outside for someone to open the gates). With 60 people (mostly southerns) dying every day (even not taking into account the deaths in battle) we are talking about more than 350 deaths.

How many southerns does stannis even have after these deaths? Is he relevant for the northerns with almost no men?

 

[sweetsunray]

5 minutes ago, divica said:

The only problem is theon thinking ramsay would also ride to the CV.

Theon is wrong. His mind is completely held by fear for Ramsay. Ramsay is the boogeyman for Theon. To him it seems it would just be mere minutes that the alarm was raised to Ramsay about Jeyne missing, because in his mind Ramsay knows what he thinks, can predict his moves. He also believes that everybody instantly recognized them and knew of it. And most readers have come to believe the same thing, through Theon's assumptions.

But the last chapter of his at WF, when put to the scrutiny shows something entirely different. Hell, he's already so fearful when he has to carry the hot water to Jeyne with the spearwives. The fact was that it was snowing so hard nobody could see much ahead of them in the yard. Can't even see the walls at the other side of the yard. It would take hours before anyone would realize that it was Reek jumping from the WF wall, and it would take many more hours before they come to realize the other person who jumped was fArya. It all happens in the middle of a blizzard with nobody able to see but a few meters ahead of them, and two armies leaving through the gates with heavy horse and carts, etc. Sure, there were two spearwives helping them escape, but one is shot and falls to her death. The other will face soldiers and would be killed before anyone even comes up with the idea to spare her life and put her to the question.

Ramsay was to make the rear of the three armies, but Roose did not intend to have Ramsay leave immediately after the Freys and Manderlys. He would want to give the Freys and Manderlys room to thin each other out, without costing the Bolton soldiers. And by the time Ramsay and Roose do discover it was Reek and fArya who jumped, they won't know they fled to Stannis. And because of the escape of Theon and fArya, Ramsay never even rode out to fight against Stannis.

19 minutes ago, divica said:

Stannis army will spend at least 6 days in the snow (day/night theon arrives, day of battle, at least 4 days of marching not counting the time needed to wait outside for someone to open the gates). With 60 people (mostly southerns) dying every day (even not taking into account the deaths in battle) we are talking about more than 350 deaths.

Still more men than if they were to march to Deepwood Motte (sorry, but your proposals tonight were so hilarious, it made my day)

[divica]

24 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Still more men than if they were to march to Deepwood Motte (sorry, but your proposals tonight were so hilarious, it made my day)

I don t know. If I was roose I would have someone in charge of burning all the food in case of iminent defeat as a fuck you for the winners.

I think grrm has to explain much better how people can survive a winter in winterfell after it was burned. Whatever was inside the glass gardens is gone. There aren t plants around of winterfell because of the snow and I don t remember how many animals are there at the moment. Even in defeat roose can fuck stannis.

DM is a much safer source of food =).

But seriously, if stannis doesn t have a way to infiltrate people inside winterfell from his pov it is suicide to attack winterfell. 

And as long as some frey survivors can escape the CV they would inform winterfell about the defeat. So ramsay wouldn t write the PL...

And there are always survivors in these big batles...

44 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Ramsay was to make the rear of the three armies, but Roose did not intend to have Ramsay leave immediately after the Freys and Manderlys. He would want to give the Freys and Manderlys room to thin each other out, without costing the Bolton soldiers. And by the time Ramsay and Roose do discover it was Reek and fArya who jumped, they won't know they fled to Stannis. And because of the escape of Theon and fArya, Ramsay never even rode out to fight against Stannis.

This might not be true. Not only did they capture mance but they probably captured someone from mors side outside of winterfell. They will know within hours that tha farya escaped and that she went to stannis. This will make ramsay more motivated to go to the CV.

 

What I might agree is that roose wants ramsay to kill whoever survives the battle and not bring more people to winterfell. I think this actually fits the Bolton way… And might cost stannis his victory/life

[kissdbyfire]

3 minutes ago, divica said:

I think grrm has to explain much better how people can survive a winter in winterfell after it was burned. Whatever was inside the glass gardens is gone. There aren t plants around of winterfell because of the snow and I don t remember how many animals are there at the moment. Even in defeat roose can fuck stannis.

But you said earlier that WF is in good shape, lots of “fresh” people, etc. Now you’re saying something different, so I’m curious: which is it?

[divica]

Just now, kissdbyfire said:

But you said earlier that WF is in good shape, lots of “fresh” people, etc. Now you’re saying something different, so I’m curious: which is it?

It is.

At the moment people in winterfell are rested, well fed and warmish. They are in good shape compared to stannis people.

[sweetsunray]

4 minutes ago, divica said:

I think grrm has to explain much better how people can survive a winter in winterfell after it was burned. Whatever was inside the glass gardens is gone. There aren t plants around of winterfell because of the snow and I don t remember how many animals are there at the moment. Even in defeat roose can fuck stannis. 

Food brought along by the other houses and the Dreadfort. That's what they're living on.

5 minutes ago, divica said:

But seriously, if stannis doesn t have a way to infiltrate people inside winterfell from his pov it is suicide to attack winterfell. 

Nobody disagrees with that.

6 minutes ago, divica said:

And as long as some frey survivors can escape the CV they would inform winterfell about the defeat. So ramsay wouldn t write the PL...

And there are always survivors in these big batles...

There are always survivors of a battle, but they don't always make it far. How would soldiers of the Freys manage to make it back to WF without food, in a blizzard, and remain undetected by enemies ahead of them? They won't. They'll perish. The Freys aren't northerners.

 

8 minutes ago, divica said:

This might not be true. Not only did they capture mance but they probably captured someone from mors side outside of winterfell. They will know within hours that tha farya escaped and that she went to stannis. This will make ramsay more motivated to go to the CV.

I don't believe they captured Mance whatsoever, or even the other spearwives. 

The Freys might have captured someone from Mors outside of WF, but not the Boltons.

[kissdbyfire]

4 minutes ago, divica said:

It is.

At the moment people in winterfell are rested, well fed and warmish. They are in good shape compared to stannis people.

And yet this is what you just said:

“I think grrm has to explain much better how people can survive a winter in winterfell after it was burned. Whatever was inside the glass gardens is gone. There aren t plants around of winterfell because of the snow and I don t remember how many animals are there at the moment. Even in defeat roose can fuck stannis.”

At this point, being inside may be worse than outside, actually. They are running out of food, and they’re basically trapped, w/o knowing who is ready to turn on them. Roose is many things, but he’s not an idiot. He knows he’s not liked, he knows most northerners there are there because they have to compromise for the time being. But he also knows things can turn real nasty for him, very quickly. 

[divica]

3 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Food brought along by the other houses and the Dreadfort. That's what they're living on.

yeah, but after a few weeks what do winterfellians eat? Not only was winterfell burned but shortly after had an army there for a few weeks. Whatever was done to make winterfell livable again was undone...

5 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

There are always survivors of a battle, but they don't always make it far. How would soldiers of the Freys manage to make it back to WF without food, in a blizzard, and remain undetected by enemies ahead of them? They won't. They'll perish. The Freys aren't northerners.

What enemies ahead of them? The maderlys? Because I think the bad weather actually helps the freys escaping because it is impossible to follow them. And while it takes 3 days of march to winterfell a few guys on horseback running for their live will take much less. 

And if the freys were able to get to CV they should be able to return to winterfell...

The only way I can see them getting caught is if they deliberatly ride towards the manderlys in order to seek help and the manderlys kill them all. But we know the freys and manderlys hate each other.

9 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

I don't believe they captured Mance whatsoever, or even the other spearwives. 

The Freys might have captured someone from Mors outside of WF, but not the Boltons

If the freys captured someone from mors side right outside of winterfell then they sent the prisoner to winterfell. They certainly wouldn t bring the prisoner to a battlefild with winterfell so close...

And as I think ramsay wrote the PL he has to have captured at least some spearwives...

[divica]

6 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

And yet this is what you just said:

“I think grrm has to explain much better how people can survive a winter in winterfell after it was burned. Whatever was inside the glass gardens is gone. There aren t plants around of winterfell because of the snow and I don t remember how many animals are there at the moment. Even in defeat roose can fuck stannis.”

yes. I meant survive a longer period of time during winter. Because so far people are living ok in winterfell. 

8 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

At this point, being inside may be worse than outside, actually. They are running out of food, and they’re basically trapped, w/o knowing who is ready to turn on them. Roose is many things, but he’s not an idiot. He knows he’s not liked, he knows most northerners there are there because they have to compromise for the time being. But he also knows things can turn real nasty for him, very quickly. 

That is why roose has to do something to keep the people inside winterfell loyal if stannis happens to win the battle in CV. As things were when theon left winterfell if stannis apeared outside of winterfell roose knows he is fucked.

That is one of the reasons why sending ramsay with 1 to 2K people to ambush stannis or the freys/manderlys on their way to winterfell is actually roose's best move.

Gets the freys out of the north, defeats stannis and might give him some advantage into getting control of white arbor.