Mel & Shireen

[kissdbyfire]

32 minutes ago, divica said:

Even in defeat roose can fuck stannis.”

 

32 minutes ago, divica said:

.As things were when theon left winterfell if stannis apeared outside of winterfell roose knows he is fucked.

It’s all very confusing, sorry. 

[divica]

1 minute ago, kissdbyfire said:

 

It’s all very confusing, sorry. 

What? 

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

1 hour ago, divica said:

What? 

She posted two contradicting statements you made. 

One in which you say even in defeat Roose can f*ck Stannis, the next you say if Stannis appeared outside of WF Roose knows he's f*cked. 

One says Roose will win, the next says Stannis will win. 

It's confusing. 

[divica]

2 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

She posted two contradicting statements you made. 

One in which you say even in defeat Roose can f*ck Stannis, the next you say if Stannis appeared outside of WF Roose knows he's f*cked. 

One says Roose will win, the next says Stannis will win. 

It's confusing. 

No.

I said that even if defeated roose could have someone burn the food in winterfell (when it is obvious he is going to lose) and f*ck stannis.

And afterwards I said that at that moment in time from roose's pov if stannis appears outside winterfell roose knows he is f*cked because someone inside will probably help stannis win the battle.

In both cases from roose's pov he would lose. He could just also harm stannis by burning the food...

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

28 minutes ago, divica said:

No.

I said that even if defeated roose could have someone burn the food in winterfell (when it is obvious he is going to lose) and f*ck stannis.

And afterwards I said that at that moment in time from roose's pov if stannis appears outside winterfell roose knows he is f*cked because someone inside will probably help stannis win the battle.

In both cases from roose's pov he would lose. He could just also harm stannis by burning the food...

I haven't really been following the discussion, I was just clarifying what KBF was confused about. 

[sweetsunray]

4 hours ago, divica said:

yeah, but after a few weeks what do winterfellians eat? Not only was winterfell burned but shortly after had an army there for a few weeks. Whatever was done to make winterfell livable again was undone...

Ultimately Stannis requires the Dreadfort. WF is only a temporary solution, since it lacks foodstocks. Therefore, like Cantuse I'm inclined to believe Stannis intends some type of mission that involves the Dreadfort somehow. For the moment though, WF will be an improvement on Stannis' army.

4 hours ago, divica said:

What enemies ahead of them? The maderlys? Because I think the bad weather actually helps the freys escaping because it is impossible to follow them. And while it takes 3 days of march to winterfell a few guys on horseback running for their live will take much less. 

Manderlys and Mors' Umbers and northerners on garrons. You seem to think that Stannis' army can all be packed on the ice and the island. It cannot. For the ice lake trap to work, the northerners on their garrons will remain on the shore.

Secondly you assume that fleeing Freys will know which direction they will be running. They won't. Those running will do so in panic in the middle of a blizzard.

And so ultimately, when Stannis' army moves for WF, sending outriders ahead to WF to set up the ruse, he has some time to sweep up the area and clear off survivors.

4 hours ago, divica said:

And if the freys were able to get to CV they should be able to return to winterfell...

The only way I can see them getting caught is if they deliberatly ride towards the manderlys in order to seek help and the manderlys kill them all. But we know the freys and manderlys hate each other.

When they ride for CV they aren't panicking. People running for their lives are in panic mode, lose sense of direction in an environment that already hampers knowing where you're going. Those escaping won't be little organized groups of men.

4 hours ago, divica said:

If the freys captured someone from mors side right outside of winterfell then they sent the prisoner to winterfell. They certainly wouldn t bring the prisoner to a battlefild with winterfell so close... 

Euhm nope. We are told the Frey leadership is dumb and angry. They don't even know someone escaped WF while they rode and marched out. Either they killed them or asked them questions about Stannis and killed them after getting unsatisfying answers (as most of Mors' Umbers "boys" are a separate force of Stannis).

4 hours ago, divica said:

That is one of the reasons why sending ramsay with 1 to 2K people to ambush stannis or the freys/manderlys on their way to winterfell is actually roose's best move.

Stannis disagrees. He thinks Roose made a mistake by doing that.

[divica]

4 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Stannis disagrees. He thinks Roose made a mistake by doing that.

Stannis disagrees because he doesn t know what is happening inside winterfell. Just as stannis is sure he would lose if he was left alone in the CV roose is also sure there would be war inside winterfell if the manderleys and freys remained there.

And given that his son is suposed to be married to a stark and his propaganda to put the blame of the red wedding on the freys it is normal that he gains allies over time if he shows his strenght. If he is able to defeat stannis and get rid of wyman it would be perfect for the boltons. 

Roose's problem is that jon revealed his scheme to stannis and therefore probably doomed the freys.

13 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Euhm nope. We are told the Frey leadership is dumb and angry. They don't even know someone escaped WF while they rode and marched out. Either they killed them or asked them questions about Stannis and killed them after getting unsatisfying answers (as most of Mors' Umbers "boys" are a separate force of Stannis).

They are marching for war. It doesn t make sense for them to stop near winterfell to interrogate some people that have been terrorizing winterfell. I think if they captured someone it is more likely they would send them to the boltons to be properly tortured...

But I agree that they might just have killed everybody. It is one of those situations that whatever grrm wants can happen and he seems to want ramsey near CV (both the PL and theon point to him being somewhat involved in the battle).

17 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

When they ride for CV they aren't panicking. People running for their lives are in panic mode, lose sense of direction in an environment that already hampers knowing where you're going. Those escaping won't be little organized groups of men.

meh… On the other hand it is close enough to winterfell for them to eventually find the right direction. 

19 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Manderlys and Mors' Umbers and northerners on garrons. You seem to think that Stannis' army can all be packed on the ice and the island. It cannot. For the ice lake trap to work, the northerners on their garrons will remain on the shore.

Secondly you assume that fleeing Freys will know which direction they will be running. They won't. Those running will do so in panic in the middle of a blizzard.

And so ultimately, when Stannis' army moves for WF, sending outriders ahead to WF to set up the ruse, he has some time to sweep up the area and clear off survivors.

The northerns on garrons will be used for stannis in the battle. They are his only cavalry… He will need them for something.

I assume that mors umbers is dealt with and unless the freys ride towards the manderlys I don t think they will ever find them in the middle of the blizzard. From what I remember asha only saw tycho arriving when he was almost upon her. The weather just doesn t allow chases...

And while I agree that the freys won t know where they are running eventually they must have some indication of where they are and can go to winterfell. 3 days march must be pretty short time riding. And once they escape the battle due to the blizzard it is nearly impossible for stannis troops to find them.

28 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Ultimately Stannis requires the Dreadfort. WF is only a temporary solution, since it lacks foodstocks. Therefore, like Cantuse I'm inclined to believe Stannis intends some type of mission that involves the Dreadfort somehow. For the moment though, WF will be an improvement on Stannis' army.

Either the dreadfort or some castle near the shore where he can send boats to essos for food.

[Jon The Dragon]

5 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Ultimately Stannis requires the Dreadfort. WF is only a temporary solution, since it lacks foodstocks. Therefore, like Cantuse I'm inclined to believe Stannis intends some type of mission that involves the Dreadfort somehow. For the moment though, WF will be an improvement on Stannis' army.

How about Littlefinger coming in to save the day at some point after battle with all his extra food in The Vale... The Dreadfort isn't essential, Winterfell is, as it's basically the capital of The North, it's the statement to The North of taking it and removing Freys and Boltons from the region. Stannis has the Dreadfort maester, maybe he could be used to access The Dreadfort if required at some point. In Stannis' camp he has all he needs to take back the whole North, The Maester for the Dreadfort (essential for misinformation), The Greyjoys for Torrhen's square (and some Ironborn loyalty), Karstarks for Karhold, he could also end up with Frey hostages (even though I think all the Freys get killed). Stannis's bargaining position grows all the time.

[Greywater-Watch]

Interesting debate. My comment to the option of Stannis leaving the crofter's village to avoid battle with the Boltons, either in direction Deepwood Motte or Castle Black.

Good arguments based on logistics (distances, travel time, Food supply) have been given.

Also very important to me:

Stannis wants to gather the Northmen around himself by showing strength and defeating the Boltons, by winning battles. Running away from this battle would be a disaster for Stannis' reputation in the eyes of the Northmen.

[three-eyed monkey]

23 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I think this is the irony of the situation though. The fact that he was willing to burn one child but will not be happy when someone burns his own child. 

Except Stannis was not willing to burn Edric. He weighed it up and tried to rationalize it but did not want to do it. Even if he was, in terms of story-telling choices, the irony of someone else burning his child by comparison to the horror of him burning his own child is no contest in my opinion. And I would also predict that Stannis will ultimately break and destroys himself and Shireen will be a casualty of that.

23 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

We agree here. If Stan burns Shireen it will most certainly be in an attempt to save the realm. He is a hard man but he isn't cruel. He would only do this if he felt it was for the greater good. 

I largely agree. I would add that he will feel it is his duty, as the supposed chosen one, to make the required sacrifice.

23 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I just don't feel like this would be a hard choice. Move against KL to get to the IT that won't be there if something isn't done about the incoming Long Night? I think it's only common sense for him to choose to fight against the Others because if he doesn't what is the point in marching on or winning a battle against KL? 

That depends on the situation. If he's sitting in Winterfell and the Wall comes down then sure, no hard choice there. But what if his prize in King's Landing is within reach, say he's crossing the Trident or preparing to sail from White Harbor to assault the city, and then news comes that the Wall has fallen?

Personally, I don't think the Wall will come down until after the North is resolved, so I'm guesstimating later rather than sooner in TWoW.

23 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Exactly. And he knows it too.

ASoS, Jon XI

“Surprisingly, Stannis smiled at that. “You’re bold enough to be a Stark. Yes, I should have come sooner. If not for my Hand, I might not have come at all. Lord Seaworth is a man of humble birth, but he reminded me of my duty, when all I could think of was my rights. I had the cart before the horse, Davos said. I was trying to win the throne to save the kingdom, when I should have been trying to save the kingdom to win the throne.” Stannis pointed north. “There is where I’ll find the foe that I was born to fight.”

Well that is what he says, and he brandishes Lightbringer when needs be, because he supports Mel's mythology about him being the chosen one who will save the realm. He equates that to meaning he is the true king, not just by law but by providence. Such mythologies are typical with monarchs. Power resides where people believe it resides and all that.

Stannis took part in the Lightbringer ceremony on Dragonstone, where he drew the glamoured sword from the fire. But Stannis admits to Davos that while the sword glows prettily it serves him no better than common steel. He's skeptical, not just of the sword but of the whole myth. He's using the myth to assist his effort to win the throne. He's saving the kingdom to win the throne. Right now his effort is focused on winning the throne.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

6 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Except Stannis was not willing to burn Edric.

He was willing though. Or at least he wasn't opposed. He was arguing for burning Edric. 

6 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

He weighed it up and tried to rationalize it but did not want to do it.

No, he definitely didn't want to or get any joy out of the suggestion but in the end he would have I think. 

7 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Even if he was, in terms of story-telling choices, the irony of someone else burning his child by comparison to the horror of him burning his own child is no contest in my opinion. And I would also predict that Stannis will ultimately break and destroys himself and Shireen will be a casualty of that.

Sure. Could be. I would prefer someone else burning her & Stannis getting angry about it (mostly because of the potential consequences) but I'm just speculating that this could be. I don't have any evidence. Except the fact that Stannis is not currently in a position to burn Shireen - doesn't mean he can't, just that it would happen later rather than sooner. 

9 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

largely agree. I would add that he will feel it is his duty, as the supposed chosen one, to make the required sacrifice.

For sure. I can get behind all of this. 

9 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

That depends on the situation. If he's sitting in Winterfell and the Wall comes down then sure, no hard choice there. But what if his prize in King's Landing is within reach, say he's crossing the Trident or preparing to sail from White Harbor to assault the city, and then news comes that the Wall has fallen?

Personally, I don't think the Wall will come down until after the North is resolved, so I'm guesstimating later rather than sooner in TWoW.

I see what you are saying. If he is close to his prize I could see him choosing to take KL before tending to the wall but I think he would absolutely attend to the wall & quickly. He is nothing if not duty driven.

 

[three-eyed monkey]

With regard to Stannis and Winterfell.

Stannis does not have the option of retreating to Deepwood Motte and staying in the war. The journey from Deepwood nearly destroyed him and the conditions are not improving. His men are starving and freezing to death with the cold count heading towards 100 men a night. He takes Winterfell or dies trying because if he doesn't it's game over anyway.

Stannis was screwed until the party arrived with Theon and Jon's letter. Then he learned the Karstarks were turncloaks, Tybald was a spy, and Roose had sent a portion of his strength against him. He will use all three to take Winterfell. He will defeat the Freys at the village and then inform Roose, using Tybald and a raven, that the Bolton forces have won. And Stannis knows the "victorious" Bolton forces will be expected, quite obviously, back in Winterfell. including the loyal Karstarks.

Stannis cannot hope to lay siege of assault the castle's double walls with the strength he has, so he needs a ruse. The Karstarks, who are thought to be loyal to Roose will lead the returning victors right through the open gates.

It makes sense that we will see the battle of ice through Asha's eyes and then alternate to Theon for the next chapter concerning Winterfell, as he is the one with the emotional connection to the castle. I can't see us getting the taking of Winterfell in real time, given that we will have just seen the battle of ice and there will be several other battles going on in Mereen and elsewhere around the same time. I have a hunch Theon will relay the taking of Winterfell in retrospect.

With regard to the Manderlys, it came to blood in the hall of Winterfell and outside they are greatly outnumbered by Freys who are led by hot-headed Hosteen. The Manderlys would do well to put distance between them and the Freys once outside but that may not be possible. I think there is a chance they don't make it to the battle but if they do they will not be siding with Freys. Siding with Stannis may be their only chance at survival.

 

[three-eyed monkey]

40 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

He was willing though. Or at least he wasn't opposed. He was arguing for burning Edric. 

I don't think Stannis was genuinely arguing for burning Edric, for me he was trying to rationalize it to himself. After the Blackwater he was almost out of the war. He needed something to get him back in the game and Mel was offering a way. In his hopeless situation it seemed like the only way and he was trying to rationalize doing it, because he had no other options. But then circumstance and Davos combined to give him an option, and Stannis jumped at it.

49 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

No, he definitely didn't want to or get any joy out of the suggestion but in the end he would have I think. 

I agree.

 

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

51 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

I don't think Stannis was genuinely arguing for burning Edric, for me he was trying to rationalize it to himself. After the Blackwater he was almost out of the war. He needed something to get him back in the game and Mel was offering a way. In his hopeless situation it seemed like the only way and he was trying to rationalize doing it, because he had no other options. But then circumstance and Davos combined to give him an option, and Stannis jumped at it

For sure, he didn't want to do it. He was beginning to think it would be his only choice though. He did jump at another option & wasn't too angry with Davos for removing the boy. - Speaking of Davos, that man is one loyal subject/friend. 

[three-eyed monkey]

5 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Speaking of Davos, that man is one loyal subject/friend. 

Yeah, Davos, just gotta love him. I love Stan too, of course. I think he's a very complex character who is greatly misunderstood by large parts of the readership who take him at face value. This is due to him being non-pov but there are plenty of clever hints along the way that reveal what lies behind the outward image he portrays.

[divica]

2 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

With regard to Stannis and Winterfell.

Stannis does not have the option of retreating to Deepwood Motte and staying in the war. The journey from Deepwood nearly destroyed him and the conditions are not improving. His men are starving and freezing to death with the cold count heading towards 100 men a night. He takes Winterfell or dies trying because if he doesn't it's game over anyway.

Stannis was screwed until the party arrived with Theon and Jon's letter. Then he learned the Karstarks were turncloaks, Tybald was a spy, and Roose had sent a portion of his strength against him. He will use all three to take Winterfell. He will defeat the Freys at the village and then inform Roose, using Tybald and a raven, that the Bolton forces have won. And Stannis knows the "victorious" Bolton forces will be expected, quite obviously, back in Winterfell. including the loyal Karstarks.

Stannis cannot hope to lay siege of assault the castle's double walls with the strength he has, so he needs a ruse. The Karstarks, who are thought to be loyal to Roose will lead the returning victors right through the open gates.

It makes sense that we will see the battle of ice through Asha's eyes and then alternate to Theon for the next chapter concerning Winterfell, as he is the one with the emotional connection to the castle. I can't see us getting the taking of Winterfell in real time, given that we will have just seen the battle of ice and there will be several other battles going on in Mereen and elsewhere around the same time. I have a hunch Theon will relay the taking of Winterfell in retrospect.

With regard to the Manderlys, it came to blood in the hall of Winterfell and outside they are greatly outnumbered by Freys who are led by hot-headed Hosteen. The Manderlys would do well to put distance between them and the Freys once outside but that may not be possible. I think there is a chance they don't make it to the battle but if they do they will not be siding with Freys. Siding with Stannis may be their only chance at survival.

 

Even ignoring a lot of questions there is a big problem.

If I am not mistaken stannis has between 300 to 600 southerns left. And between asha's last cold count and him taking winterfell he will need at least 6 days (theon's arrival, day of battle, 3+1 days of marching to winterfell because of bad weather, whatever days pass between theon's arrival and the battle and whatever days pass between the battle and stannis wanting to march).

This means that stannis Southern army that is the basis of his power will be almost gone when he takes winterfell. Basically stannis will be a viserys surrounded by people that not like him (that is shown pretty clearly in asha's chapters).

Even if stannis is completly victorious in all his battles he won t gain any power in the north...

[sweetsunray]

19 minutes ago, divica said:

This means that stannis Southern army that is the basis of his power will be almost gone when he takes winterfell.

No, he won't because the Freys have food with them (for 2000 men and heavy horse). And the Manderlys took extra with them, which is either for Stannis OR for extra forces from White Harbor that Wyman never even brought into WF to make Roose underestimate him, because there's one thing for sure: Wyman did not bring all his potential forces and knights to WF.

[Coffeewiththegods]

3 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

With regard to Stannis and Winterfell.

Stannis does not have the option of retreating to Deepwood Motte and staying in the war. The journey from Deepwood nearly destroyed him and the conditions are not improving. His men are starving and freezing to death with the cold count heading towards 100 men a night. He takes Winterfell or dies trying because if he doesn't it's game over anyway.

Stannis was screwed until the party arrived with Theon and Jon's letter. Then he learned the Karstarks were turncloaks, Tybald was a spy, and Roose had sent a portion of his strength against him. He will use all three to take Winterfell. He will defeat the Freys at the village and then inform Roose, using Tybald and a raven, that the Bolton forces have won. And Stannis knows the "victorious" Bolton forces will be expected, quite obviously, back in Winterfell. including the loyal Karstarks.

Stannis cannot hope to lay siege of assault the castle's double walls with the strength he has, so he needs a ruse. The Karstarks, who are thought to be loyal to Roose will lead the returning victors right through the open gates.

It makes sense that we will see the battle of ice through Asha's eyes and then alternate to Theon for the next chapter concerning Winterfell, as he is the one with the emotional connection to the castle. I can't see us getting the taking of Winterfell in real time, given that we will have just seen the battle of ice and there will be several other battles going on in Mereen and elsewhere around the same time. I have a hunch Theon will relay the taking of Winterfell in retrospect.

With regard to the Manderlys, it came to blood in the hall of Winterfell and outside they are greatly outnumbered by Freys who are led by hot-headed Hosteen. The Manderlys would do well to put distance between them and the Freys once outside but that may not be possible. I think there is a chance they don't make it to the battle but if they do they will not be siding with Freys. Siding with Stannis may be their only chance at survival.

 

This 

[divica]

2 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

No, he won't because the Freys have food with them. And the Manderlys took extra with them, which is either for Stannis OR for extra forces from White Harbor that Wyman never even brought into WF to make Roose underestimate him, because there's one thing for sure: Wyman did not bring all his potential forces and knights to WF.

I am saying his Southern army will be almost gone because of the dayly cold count.

I don t think lack of food is really what is killing people… And since asha's last cold count in the best case scenario 2 or 3 days will pass before the mandarlys and freys even arrive at CV. This is close to 200 deaths!

And I don t see how more manderly's soldiers can stop the cold count of stannis Southern army...

[sweetsunray]

2 minutes ago, divica said:

I am saying his Southern army will be almost gone because of the dayly cold count.

I don t think lack of food is really what is killing people… And since asha's last cold count in the best case scenario 2 or 3 days will pass before the mandarlys and freys even arrive at CV. This is close to 200 deaths!

And I don t see how more manderly's soldiers can stop the cold count of stannis Southern army...

The cold count is related to food. How do you think, people manage to get their energy to keep warm? It's not just fire. Food and energy is also part of it.