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Mel & Shireen

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59 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

The cold count is related to food. How do you think, people manage to get their energy to keep warm? It's not just fire. Food and energy is also part of it. 

It is related but it is called the cold count for a reason. And even in the beguining of their journey they were losing people and I don t think they are starving yet just rationed food.

And the people that are sick now won t get cured with extra food...

And then this cold count is with them in a specific location, when they get food they will be marching wich will elevate the cold count...

I don t think you can say that in 6 days or more, with 2 battles and 4 days of marching, 2 to 3 days with a cold count of 60 (exactly same conditions) you can expect less than 300 or so deaths due to the cold.

Edited by divica

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6 hours ago, divica said:

Even ignoring a lot of questions there is a big problem.

If I am not mistaken stannis has between 300 to 600 southerns left. And between asha's last cold count and him taking winterfell he will need at least 6 days (theon's arrival, day of battle, 3+1 days of marching to winterfell because of bad weather, whatever days pass between theon's arrival and the battle and whatever days pass between the battle and stannis wanting to march).

This means that stannis Southern army that is the basis of his power will be almost gone when he takes winterfell. Basically stannis will be a viserys surrounded by people that not like him (that is shown pretty clearly in asha's chapters).

Even if stannis is completly victorious in all his battles he won t gain any power in the north...

You and I have argued the importance of Jon to Stannis' campaign many times before, my friend. I think you are finally beginning to see why Stannis needs Jon.

That's exactly why he sent the pink letter from Winterfell. Stannis wants Jon to break his vows and come to Winterfell where the king will offer him a pardon from his pending death for oath-breaking in return for Jon becoming Jon Stark, Stan's loyal Lord of Winterfell, Warden of the North, and husband of the wildling princess, Val, a marriage that is designed to seal a peace between the wildlings and the north. Jon repeatedly refused the offer so Stannis tried a different hawk and tried to put Jon in a position where he could not refuse the king's offer.

That was the plan at least, but it is already coming undone, of course, due to unintended consequences.

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6 hours ago, divica said:

I don t think you can say that in 6 days or more, with 2 battles and 4 days of marching, 2 to 3 days with a cold count of 60 (exactly same conditions) you can expect less than 300 or so deaths due to the cold.

One thing we know for sure in conditions like that is that seven days of battle is highly unlikely. A  battle at the village and another in Winterfell with three days of marching between them. They could be in Winterfell within 3-4 days of Theon I.

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On 12/2/2019 at 7:53 PM, Coffeewiththegods said:

Is it possible that upon hearing of Stannis’s “Death” in the pink letter, Mel Desperately burns shireen asking to bring back azor ahai and Jon rises instead? And this becomes the catalyst for Mel following jon...I do believe that Jon will spend some time in ghost, but maybe somehow the death of shireen brings him back to his body somehow. I have another theory(based on absolutely nothing lol)that Mel knows about Jon switching the babies and that is why she will jump straight to burning shireen.

I don't believe your theory.  Daenerys Targaryen is Azor Ahai.  Jon Snow is not.  And if Shireen gets burned, it will be a decision from Stannis.  I am convinced of Jon Snow's coming back to life but it is not going to be Mel who will do it.  The Others can bring back the dead into some semblance of cold life.  I believe that is the fate of Jon Snow, the Ice Man.  Or Snow Man if you prefer.  Mr. Frosty. 

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i was wondering...Jon has received a letter from Ramsay before and he takes note of Ramsay’s handwriting...and when he receives the PL he doesn’t question it because the handwriting is the same right???

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2 minutes ago, Coffeewiththegods said:

i was wondering...Jon has received a letter from Ramsay before and he takes note of Ramsay’s handwriting...and when he receives the PL he doesn’t question it because the handwriting is the same right???

Exactly. He sees just what he’d expect to see. But you’ll hear a number of other explanations that are, IMO, as convoluted as the reasoning given for anyone other than Ramsay to have written the letter. 

@three-eyed monkey and I even have a wager, and one of us - hint: me - will be imbibing pints or single malt, while the other - hint: 3EM - picks up the tab. :D

 

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4 hours ago, Coffeewiththegods said:

i was wondering...Jon has received a letter from Ramsay before and he takes note of Ramsay’s handwriting...and when he receives the PL he doesn’t question it because the handwriting is the same right???

I would say we need to think of this from the writers point of view, as in GRRM. Asha and Jon both note the writing is a huge spiky hand. The huge spiky hand is not present in the pink letter. This is a pretty standard clue in mystery writing. Conspicuous by its absence.

As far as Jon goes, some will assume does not mentioned because he recognizes it, as you mentioned. But GRRM decides what goes on the page, not Jon. If GRRM wanted to confirm to the reader the letter really is from Ramsay then he would have used the tag, huge spiky hand, to confirm it and prevent the readers chasing off on a mystery that doesn't exist. It is a mystery and it is meant to be one and he left the term out as a clue.

4 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Exactly. He sees just what he’d expect to see. But you’ll hear a number of other explanations that are, IMO, as convoluted as the reasoning given for anyone other than Ramsay to have written the letter. 

@three-eyed monkey and I even have a wager, and one of us - hint: me - will be imbibing pints or single malt, while the other - hint: 3EM - picks up the tab. :D

 

I'm glad you remember.:cheers: payday is coming for one of us.

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5 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

One thing we know for sure in conditions like that is that seven days of battle is highly unlikely. A  battle at the village and another in Winterfell with three days of marching between them. They could be in Winterfell within 3-4 days of Theon I.

I always think that people get too stuck on the 7 days of battle. For exemple, a siege can take several days and people fight in every day… I am no master of warfare, but there must be war strategys that make 2 groups fight several days instead of a big decive battle...

In regards to the time. Theon I happens 1 day after the last cold count (so day 1). During this day we know stannis intends to kill theon and doesn t look like he actually expects a battle to happen at any moment… Besides the fact that some people riding must be much faster than an army that has to march and bring food suplies… So the battle will happen on day 2 at the earliest (there is no garantee that the bad weather won t delay the freys and make them arriver even later)...

So they can only march out of the CV on day 3 and it will take them probably more than 3 days of march (because of the bad weather). This means that at the earliest they will arrive on day 6 or 7 after the last cold count.

Whatever math we do here with the cold and the battles stannis is almost garanteed to loose more than 300 men. This leaves him virtually with no Southern army...

Another important thing to take into acount is that wyman that because of his deal with davos could be stannis ally will probably be out of action...

Even if won the battle of winterfell he would be a kind without power surrounded by people that not like him. To me having stannis conquering winterfell looks like a pointless plot… It leads nowhere...

6 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

You and I have argued the importance of Jon to Stannis' campaign many times before, my friend. I think you are finally beginning to see why Stannis needs Jon.

That's exactly why he sent the pink letter from Winterfell. Stannis wants Jon to break his vows and come to Winterfell where the king will offer him a pardon from his pending death for oath-breaking in return for Jon becoming Jon Stark, Stan's loyal Lord of Winterfell, Warden of the North, and husband of the wildling princess, Val, a marriage that is designed to seal a peace between the wildlings and the north. Jon repeatedly refused the offer so Stannis tried a different hawk and tried to put Jon in a position where he could not refuse the king's offer.

That was the plan at least, but it is already coming undone, of course, due to unintended consequences.

I never disagreed that jon would be an important asset to stannis. I just completly disagree that stannis wrote the PL with the objective of bringing jon to winterfell. To me it makes zero sense because I can t see how stannis could logically expect that the PL would make jon renounce his vows, join him, be accepted by the other lords, not put stannis familly in danger, not put the NW in chaos and several other problems… But that is a discussion for another topic.

 

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3 hours ago, divica said:

I always think that people get too stuck on the 7 days of battle. For exemple, a siege can take several days and people fight in every day… I am no master of warfare, but there must be war strategys that make 2 groups fight several days instead of a big decive battle...

A siege could last several days of course, but given the conditions combined with the state and size of Stannis army it's very unlikely. Stannis would be foolish to engage in a siege. He needs to do something quick and decisive. As I said, all the pieces have been put in place in the text, Tybald, the ravens trained for Winterfell, the Karstarks, and we only need to put them together really.

3 hours ago, divica said:

In regards to the time. Theon I happens 1 day after the last cold count (so day 1). During this day we know stannis intends to kill theon and doesn t look like he actually expects a battle to happen at any moment… Besides the fact that some people riding must be much faster than an army that has to march and bring food suplies… So the battle will happen on day 2 at the earliest (there is no garantee that the bad weather won t delay the freys and make them arriver even later)... 

So they can only march out of the CV on day 3 and it will take them probably more than 3 days of march (because of the bad weather). This means that at the earliest they will arrive on day 6 or 7 after the last cold count.

Whatever math we do here with the cold and the battles stannis is almost garanteed to loose more than 300 men. This leaves him virtually with no Southern army...

I think we're looking at battle at the village a day or two after Theon's arrival, and then a three day march to Winterfell which will end with battle inside the castle walls. But I agree, whatever the math, Stannis will be in a relatively weak position in Winterfell. He knows the north has no love for him and that's why I believe Jon is essential in Stannis' eyes.

3 hours ago, divica said:

Another important thing to take into acount is that wyman that because of his deal with davos could be stannis ally will probably be out of action...

I think the pro-stark northerners, which is most of the northern houses really, were planning on crowning Jon as per Robb's will. Part of the plan was to play Stannis and the Boltons against each other and then mop up the remains with his 10,000 heavy cavalry, which have been held in reserve under Glover. But of course Wyman would never tell Davos that. Instead he sent him to retrieve Rickon, his Liege Lord as he called him, not his king notably.

Jon's "death" will probably make Rickon the Stark heir, so there is plenty of room for Wyman's plan to backfire, given that his new king may well be in the hands of Stannis' Hand.

3 hours ago, divica said:

Even if won the battle of winterfell he would be a kind without power surrounded by people that not like him. To me having stannis conquering winterfell looks like a pointless plot… It leads nowhere...

I disagree. I think Stannis is an integral strand of a really complex northern plot line that is very underappreciated. Actually, I think he's the prime-mover in the plot, and some parties, like Mance or the pro-Stark faction, are happy to let him do the heavy lifting while they wait to swoop in with their own schemes. Stannis, Mance, and the northern lords, all have seperate interest in Jon and news of his assassination will come as a major setback in their plans.

4 hours ago, divica said:

But that is a discussion for another topic.

Indeed. I'm gonna roll out The Stannis Plan and why he wrote the Pink Letter one more time before TWoW so you'll have a last chance to convert before it's proved right by publication.;)

 

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In a nutshell

Stannis wrote the PL - to get Jon and his family down from the wall and to forget his vows, The north would stand behind Jon as a Stark (Stannis might not know about Mance or Rickon though)

Ramsay wrote the PL - Because he's a nutter, wants the fight and to kill everyone (poor Mance!)

Mance - Because he might think the battle is lost, especially if a raven brings a false message as Stannis has the Maester with his ravens, and the Karstark / Manderly force returns with Lightbringer.

All 3 have potentials, good arguments by everyone for all of them to have wrote it

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5 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

I think the pro-stark northerners, which is most of the northern houses really, were planning on crowning Jon as per Robb's will. Part of the plan was to play Stannis and the Boltons against each other and then mop up the remains with his 10,000 heavy cavalry, which have been held in reserve under Glover. But of course Wyman would never tell Davos that. Instead he sent him to retrieve Rickon, his Liege Lord as he called him, not his king notably.

Jon's "death" will probably make Rickon the Stark heir, so there is plenty of room for Wyman's plan to backfire, given that his new king may well be in the hands of Stannis' Hand.

I don t know how many northern lords actually know about robb's will or when wyman was told...

But I don t think davos will be a problem. He is surrounded by manderly men and is suposed to dock in white arbor with rickon. There isn t much he can do to keep rickon a prisoner.

And I don t think wyman could call rickon his king while trying to convince stannis hand to deliver rickon to him...

Another interesting detail to notice is that it was wyman that promised to support stannis. What will the manderleys do if wyman is dead? Will they follow wyman's promise? Somehow I doubt it...

5 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

I disagree. I think Stannis is an integral strand of a really complex northern plot line that is very underappreciated. Actually, I think he's the prime-mover in the plot, and some parties, like Mance or the pro-Stark faction, are happy to let him do the heavy lifting while they wait to swoop in with their own schemes. Stannis, Mance, and the northern lords, all have seperate interest in Jon and news of his assassination will come as a major setback in their plans

I doubt news of his death will spread because if he is dead he won t stay that way for long. I have no idea how some people think that jon can survive inside ghost for a long period or that the NW would conserve his body for more than a few days… It isn t like dead bodies turn to wights in that area or that they will have several dead bodies to burn because of the attack on wun wun and the aftermath of the atack on jon...

To me it is ridiculous for the northmen to conquer winterfell and then deciding to go look for their king. Because jon in on the Wall and nobody knows if rickon is alive… And I don t even want to discuss the mess that would be to chose a regent that all northmen would aprove for rickon and how this regent would lead the north against the others...

Honestly, I can only see the north United and prepared for the long night with jon as king or as regent for rickon. Anything else looks irrealistic. Can you imagine the wildlings and the wildling/karstark following someone else besides jon? OR another person capable of having peace between the wildlings and northnerns and maybe IB?

4 hours ago, Jon The Dragon said:

In a nutshell

Stannis wrote the PL - to get Jon and his family down from the wall and to forget his vows, The north would stand behind Jon as a Stark (Stannis might not know about Mance or Rickon though)

Ramsay wrote the PL - Because he's a nutter, wants the fight and to kill everyone (poor Mance!)

Mance - Because he might think the battle is lost, especially if a raven brings a false message as Stannis has the Maester with his ravens, and the Karstark / Manderly force returns with Lightbringer.

All 3 have potentials, good arguments by everyone for all of them to have wrote it

I have no idea how you think each character could achieve those goals with the Pl...

Stannis- you can join @three-eyed monkey's coming up topic but I have no idea why you think jon would bring stannis familly to winterfell instead of sending them to essos and I also have no idea why jon would do any of the other things.

Mance-have no idea why you think jon could get there in time to affect the battle nor why you think mance thinks jon has the men to atttack winterfell (remember thar tomund's wildling only arrived 3 days before the PL or something similar).

Ramsay- The Pl is a brillant move. The NW recently killed their las LC. They are a bunch of criminals and cowards.. From his pov they are down to less than 400 men in CB. So if he sends a letter making a series of demands and threatning to exterminate them if they don t obey what do you think will happen? I think it was garanteed that there would be chaos and either the people in the NW would handle jon and give ramsey eveyrhing he wants or that at least the would be lots of dissent that would weaken the NW for his attack.

 

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4 minutes ago, divica said:

I have no idea how you think each character could achieve those goals with the Pl...

Stannis- you can join @three-eyed monkey's coming up topic but I have no idea why you think jon would bring stannis familly to winterfell instead of sending them to essos and I also have no idea why jon would do any of the other things.

Mance-have no idea why you think jon could get there in time to affect the battle nor why you think mance thinks jon has the men to atttack winterfell (remember thar tomund's wildling only arrived 3 days before the PL or something similar).

Ramsay- The Pl is a brillant move. The NW recently killed their las LC. They are a bunch of criminals and cowards.. From his pov they are down to less than 400 men in CB. So if he sends a letter making a series of demands and threatning to exterminate them if they don t obey what do you think will happen? I think it was garanteed that there would be chaos and either the people in the NW would handle jon and give ramsey eveyrhing he wants or that at least the would be lots of dissent that would weaken the NW for his attack.

I don't know who wrote it, I'm just speculating like everyone else, with some of their reasoning mixed with my own. It divides opinion.

Stannis - To draw Jon down from Castle Black to gain further legitimacy in The North, with his and Mances family (assuming he knows about Mance). He might assume Jon would probably come down with a Wildling army.

Mance - Say the battle with Stannis has happened, the Freys are eliminated but Winterfell isn't taken yet. A raven could arrive saying Stannis has lost, the Manderly and Karstark force could enter Winterfell saying Stannis has fallen. Roose would think his plan with the Karstarks has worked. Mance fearing the battle to actually be lost needs to think of another plan. With a letter stating Mances death it might be enough to provoke Jon and the Wildlings to come down for revenge. Stannis' family would make good hostages if Winterfell is taken.

Ramsay - Lots of reason to be him, people explained these reasons better than I can. It's a shame Mance and his spearwives go out like that if so.
 

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8 minutes ago, Jon The Dragon said:

Stannis - To draw Jon down from Castle Black to gain further legitimacy in The North, with his and Mances family (assuming he knows about Mance). He might assume Jon would probably come down with a Wildling army.

Mance - Say the battle with Stannis has happened, the Freys are eliminated but Winterfell isn't taken yet. A raven could arrive saying Stannis has lost, the Manderly and Karstark force could enter Winterfell saying Stannis has fallen. Roose would think his plan with the Karstarks has worked. Mance fearing the battle to actually be lost needs to think of another plan. With a letter stating Mances death it might be enough to provoke Jon and the Wildlings to come down for revenge. Stannis' family would make good hostages if Winterfell is taken.

Did you read my previous post?

Mance doesn t know about tormund's wildlings because they arrived about 3 days before the PL. And it takes about 3 weeks to travel between CB and winterfell. Why would mance think jon and his less than the 400 NW brothers would march to winterfell in time to make a diference?

Stannis doesn t know about the wildling army. And why would jon travel with mance's and stannis familly? Are you saying jon is going to deliver the hostages ramsay wants? why would jon leave CB if he doesn t have an army to support him?

What is the logic behind those statements? 

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55 minutes ago, divica said:

Did you read my previous post?

Mance doesn t know about tormund's wildlings because they arrived about 3 days before the PL. And it takes about 3 weeks to travel between CB and winterfell. Why would mance think jon and his less than the 400 NW brothers would march to winterfell in time to make a diference?

Stannis doesn t know about the wildling army. And why would jon travel with mance's and stannis familly? Are you saying jon is going to deliver the hostages ramsay wants? why would jon leave CB if he doesn t have an army to support him?

What is the logic behind those statements?

Yes I did,
Mance would know Jon has no problem dealing with Wildlings if needed, he's shown he can negotiate with them, and he knows a Wildling force are at CB after surrendering to Stannis.

Stannis does know about the army actually, they surrendered to him! He was going to take them to the Dreadfort, but Jon persuades him to leave them at the wall with him and explains if he goes another route he can get the mountain men to fight for him. Stannis agrees. 

Tormund arrives after with additional Wildlings.

I'm not saying Jon is going to deliver any hostages at all, not to Ramsay anyway. That letter is worded in a way so that it enrages every faction at CB. It threatens everyone. It could be enough to provoke an angry response.

Edited by Jon The Dragon

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30 minutes ago, Jon The Dragon said:

Yes I did,
Mance would know Jon has no problem dealing with Wildlings if needed, he's shown he can negotiate with them, and he knows a Wildling force are at CB after surrendering to Stannis.

Stannis does know about the army actually, they surrendered to him! He was going to take them to the Dreadfort, but Jon persuades him to leave them at the wall with him and explains if he goes another route he can get the mountain men to fight for him. Stannis agrees.

You are confusing a few hundred people (I would say 200 or so but don t remember and this number includes children and old people) with an army. I don t even know if someone could be sure that jon would be able to persuade the wildlings to march to winterfell...

35 minutes ago, Jon The Dragon said:

I'm not saying Jon is going to deliver any hostages at all, not to Ramsay anyway. That letter is worded in a way so that it enrages every faction at CB. It threatens everyone. It could be enough to provoke an angry response.

What response? From the perspective of people in winterfell Jon has less than 400 NW brothers in CB and a few hundred wildlings. Is he suposed to march to winterfell with these number? Would the NW abandon CB and march south? Unlikely… What can he do with so few wildlings?

Given the strenght he has available it is much more logical to send stannis familly away to essos along with whoever he wants to protect and then build as many defenses as he can around CB and prepare for a siege... 

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8 minutes ago, divica said:

What response? From the perspective of people in winterfell Jon has less than 400 NW brothers in CB and a few hundred wildlings. Is he suposed to march to winterfell with these number? Would the NW abandon CB and march south? Unlikely… What can he do with so few wildlings?

Given the strenght he has available it is much more logical to send stannis familly away to essos along with whoever he wants to protect and then build as many defenses as he can around CB and prepare for a siege... 

The NW won't abandon their post, but with that letter it may give Jon enough excuse to leave without being scrutinised about his vows. Mance would know there are more Wildlings than the ones at CB, he also knows the NW are letting people through. Maybe the purpose of the demand for the family members is just there to enrage whoever is at CB to respond militarily, knowing they won't give up hostages to Ramsay. It's all speculation anyway. Only definite thing we know is GRRM wrote that damn letter :D

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On 12/3/2019 at 10:38 AM, Elegant Woes said:

@kissdbyfire I am basing it on this:

He images Val primarily as a mother and caregiver. Her other qualities as anything but a mother never get a place in his imagination. This is what I mean with writing Jon a fanfiction. Jon disregards her personality in order to make his fantasy work. He's behaving like Sansa did with both Willas and Joffrey. He's projecting his idea of the perfect lady wife onto Val and when she steps out of that fantasy Jon is both surprised and disturbed by it. His reaction on Val's thoughts on Shireen is the perfect example. Personally I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Val helps Melidandre in burning Shireen. 

No, this will not happen at all. Talk about fanfiction. There is literally nothing to back this up. Jon and Val both makes comments as to how both mistrust Melisandre. Val is Jon's "she-bear" as Tormund tels Jon to find for himself, and the role of the bear symbol is to protect the forest/trees of which Jon (and Bran obviously) are in the series. Dragons and fire consume (burn) trees, they are elemental opposites as far as this series writes it. One consumes for the selfish reasons, the other serves the many.

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17 hours ago, Jon The Dragon said:

All 3 have potentials, good arguments by everyone for all of them to have wrote it

Stannis, Mance, Ramsey ... these 3 dudes?
Cmon guys, don't be sexist! ... there is another that you haven't mentioned to the newbie!

MEL!

And its sooo simple ... but its taboo to talk about because it is too simple: Mel wrote the PL to stop Jon from going to Hardhome

I know some of you guys are stubborn about opinions you have had for years ... but it is totally acceptable to change your opinions when you receive new information

.... like the Paper Curl Theory ... which suggests the Pink Letter was written locally at Castle Black

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On 12/5/2019 at 9:27 AM, three-eyed monkey said:

With regard to Stannis and Winterfell.

Stannis does not have the option of retreating to Deepwood Motte and staying in the war. The journey from Deepwood nearly destroyed him and the conditions are not improving. His men are starving and freezing to death with the cold count heading towards 100 men a night. He takes Winterfell or dies trying because if he doesn't it's game over anyway.

Stannis was screwed until the party arrived with Theon and Jon's letter. Then he learned the Karstarks were turncloaks, Tybald was a spy, and Roose had sent a portion of his strength against him. He will use all three to take Winterfell. He will defeat the Freys at the village and then inform Roose, using Tybald and a raven, that the Bolton forces have won. And Stannis knows the "victorious" Bolton forces will be expected, quite obviously, back in Winterfell. including the loyal Karstarks.

Stannis cannot hope to lay siege of assault the castle's double walls with the strength he has, so he needs a ruse. The Karstarks, who are thought to be loyal to Roose will lead the returning victors right through the open gates.

It makes sense that we will see the battle of ice through Asha's eyes and then alternate to Theon for the next chapter concerning Winterfell, as he is the one with the emotional connection to the castle. I can't see us getting the taking of Winterfell in real time, given that we will have just seen the battle of ice and there will be several other battles going on in Mereen and elsewhere around the same time. I have a hunch Theon will relay the taking of Winterfell in retrospect.

With regard to the Manderlys, it came to blood in the hall of Winterfell and outside they are greatly outnumbered by Freys who are led by hot-headed Hosteen. The Manderlys would do well to put distance between them and the Freys once outside but that may not be possible. I think there is a chance they don't make it to the battle but if they do they will not be siding with Freys. Siding with Stannis may be their only chance at survival.

 

This needs it own thread -

Stannis, Winterfell, and GRRM's Chekhov's Gun
(Alternative Title: Why the contents of the PL was all false, and why a stupid battle between Jon & Ramsay/Roose won't happen)

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10 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

This needs it own thread -

Stannis, Winterfell, and GRRM's Chekhov's Gun
(Alternative Title: Why the contents of the PL was all false, and why a stupid battle between Jon & Ramsay/Roose won't happen)

That is a brief summary of part of The Stannis Plan and why he wrote the Pink Letter. I know you favor Mel as the author but I'll repost the Stannis plan and we can continue discussions there because I think we're straying off topic here.

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