Mel & Shireen

[Jon The Dragon]

5 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Whatever did the Red God do for us!

Carice Van Houten 

[kissdbyfire]

@Lyanna<3Rhaegar, found the link, here it is:

 

 

[Coffeewiththegods]

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

@Lyanna<3Rhaegar, found the link, here it is:

 

 

Yea this is the video that convinced me it was Ramsay who wrote the PL

[three-eyed monkey]

Stannis devised the Pink Letter and he sent it from Winterfell after taking the castle. This will happen in chapters that were bumped from ADwD to TWoW. Asha I will show us the Battle of Ice and Theon II the taking of Winterfell, both of which take place before Jon XIII in ADwD. But let's not get too far off topic.

Burning Shireen. From a storytelling point-of-view it has to be Stannis. That's where the punch is. He was the one who said, I am the king, I have a duty . . . If I must sacrifice one child to the flames to save a million from the dark . . . Sacrifice . . . is never easy, Davos. Or it is no true sacrifice.

Stannis will not burn Shireen to win Winterfell, the North and possibly not even the Iron Throne. In my opinion, he will burn her in a misguided attempt to save to kingdom.

I was trying to win the throne to save the kingdom, when I should have been trying to save the kingdom to win the throne.

Stannis was trying to win the throne to save the kingdom. Back then, he was primarily trying to save the kingdom from corruption under the Lannisters and wanted to scour the court clean. He stopped believing in gods when his parents died and was surely skeptical of Mel's Lord of Light and Great Other. He went along with the charade because he wanted the Red Woman's power.

After his defeat on the Blackwater he was in a weak position and Mel advised him to give the realm a sign of his power, by which she meant let her burn Edric, but Davos provided him with another avenue when he presented his king with the plea of help from the Watch, which addressed the kings of Westeros. This is when he decided that he would indeed show the realm a sign by being the only king to go to defend the realm from the wildling invasion. This was a political move. Save the kingdom was now the means but win the throne was the end.

This dilemma is central to Stannis' arc. Win the throne or save the kingdom? I believe a day will come, not too far in the future, when Stannis will have to choose. For this to happen Stannis will have to be in a strong position to move against King's Landing, to his south, but have the Others advancing from the north. Essentially he will be between the two and will have to decide which enemy to face.

The appearance of the Others will confirm to him that Mel's apocalypse is real. He is already spending more time starring into flames and when he wins the north against the odds his conversion will accelerate. That is when he will burn Shireen, when he believes he is Azor Ahai and a great sacrifice is required to save the day. In his mind the responsibility of that sacrifice will fall on him, as he is the "chosen one", and with gritted teeth he will do his duty. Prophecy will indeed bite your prick off every time.

[kissdbyfire]

@Lyanna<3Rhaegar, just finished watching the PL video by Elio & Linda. Highly recommend it.

 

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

32 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

@Lyanna<3Rhaegar, just finished watching the PL video by Elio & Linda. Highly recommend it.

 

Will do! I started it last night but life got in the way so I didn't get to finish it. 

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

2 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Burning Shireen. From a storytelling point-of-view it has to be Stannis. That's where the punch is. He was the one who said, I am the king, I have a duty . . . If I must sacrifice one child to the flames to save a million from the dark . . . Sacrifice . . . is never easy, Davos. Or it is no true sacrifice.

I think this is the irony of the situation though. The fact that he was willing to burn one child but will not be happy when someone burns his own child. 

2 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Stannis will not burn Shireen to win Winterfell, the North and possibly not even the Iron Throne. In my opinion, he will burn her in a misguided attempt to save to kingdom.

We agree here. If Stan burns Shireen it will most certainly be in an attempt to save the realm. He is a hard man but he isn't cruel. He would only do this if he felt it was for the greater good. 

2 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

After his defeat on the Blackwater he was in a weak position and Mel advised him to give the realm a sign of his power, by which she meant let her burn Edric, but Davos provided him with another avenue when he presented his king with the plea of help from the Watch, which addressed the kings of Westeros. This is when he decided that he would indeed show the realm a sign by being the only king to go to defend the realm from the wildling invasion. This was a political move. Save the kingdom was now the means but win the throne was the end.

I agree with this except his sign to the realm didn't really help him much. It lent him some support from the watch but that is about it. My point being that he doesn't have much cause to continue this route, especially if was defeated at WF (I don't think he was but it's a possibility) 

2 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

This dilemma is central to Stannis' arc. Win the throne or save the kingdom? I believe a day will come, not too far in the future, when Stannis will have to choose. For this to happen Stannis will have to be in a strong position to move against King's Landing, to his south, but have the Others advancing from the north. Essentially he will be between the two and will have to decide which enemy to face.

The appearance of the Others will confirm to him that Mel's apocalypse is real. He is already spending more time starring into flames and when he wins the north against the odds his conversion will accelerate. That is when he will burn Shireen, when he believes he is Azor Ahai and a great sacrifice is required to save the day. In his mind the responsibility of that sacrifice will fall on him, as he is the "chosen one", and with gritted teeth he will do his duty. Prophecy will indeed bite your prick off every time.

I just don't feel like this would be a hard choice. Move against KL to get to the IT that won't be there if something isn't done about the incoming Long Night? I think it's only common sense for him to choose to fight against the Others because if he doesn't what is the point in marching on or winning a battle against KL? 

I can see him choosing to burn Shireen to save the day though. IMO if he does this, it will only be for this cause. I think I would rather Mel do it to reanimate Jon only because of the potential drama it will cause. I really like the idea of Mel burning Shireen because she thinks Stannis is dead & wants to bring him back only to find it brought Jon back & that Stannis was never dead, is coming back to the wall, & is not going to be happy. 

At any rate I can see the logic in both & wish the damn book would come on!! LOL 

[kissdbyfire]

4 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I think it's only common sense for him to choose to fight against the Others because if he doesn't what is the point in marching on or winning a battle against KL? 

Exactly. And he knows it too.

ASoS, Jon XI

“Surprisingly, Stannis smiled at that. “You’re bold enough to be a Stark. Yes, I should have come sooner. If not for my Hand, I might not have come at all. Lord Seaworth is a man of humble birth, but he reminded me of my duty, when all I could think of was my rights. I had the cart before the horse, Davos said. I was trying to win the throne to save the kingdom, when I should have been trying to save the kingdom to win the throne.” Stannis pointed north. “There is where I’ll find the foe that I was born to fight.”

[divica]

35 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I really like the idea of Mel burning Shireen because she thinks Stannis is dead & wants to bring him back only to find it brought Jon back & that Stannis was never dead, is coming back to the wall, & is not going to be happy. 

I think this is what will happen. 

If ramsay wrote the PL either Stannis is dead or ramsay thinks he is. And if Stannis wants ramsay to think he is dead the only logical reason I can see why he would want it is so that he can go to the wall and wait for sellswords and food. 

From Stannis pov, even if he defeats the freys he has no means to take Winterfell. He has no food and no siege weapons and Winterfell is just too well defended at the moment. Given that he knows he has thousands of sellswords coming to help he just has to survive until they arrive... 

And if Stannis is going to break and maybe even join the NW it has to be because Mel burned shireen because she thought he was dead. That there is no point in trying to win the IT because he has no heir... And then we can have Jon and Stannis reverse their roles. 

[kissdbyfire]

16 minutes ago, divica said:

And if Stannis wants ramsay to think he is dead the only logical reason I can see why he would want it is so that he can go to the wall and wait for sellswords and food. 

I don’t this makes much sense. Massey hasn’t even arrived at CB yet (or EbtS) and his journey isn’t going to be easy. I mean, they don’t even have any ships left at the mo. Then travelling to Braavos, hiring thousands of sellswords and whatnot, travelling back, etc. It will take months, and that’s an optimistic take on it. 

No, Stannis faking his death is a ruse he will use. I think the Manderlys have switched sides already, and are in on it. 

Quote

From Stannis pov, even if he defeats the freys he has no means to take Winterfell. He has no food and no siege weapons and Winterfell is just too well defended at the moment. Given that he knows he has thousands of sellswords coming to help he just has to survive until they arrive... 

He won’t use siege weapons. He will use the Manderlys, captured Freys (armours, banners, etc), he will use info he will get from Bran via Theon, and he will use the fact that 99,99% of the people inside Winterfell hate the Boltons (and Freys). 

[sweetsunray]

3 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I don’t this makes much sense. Massey hasn’t even arrived at CB yet (or EbtS) and his journey isn’t going to be easy. I mean, they don’t even have any ships left at the mo. Then travelling to Braavos, hiring thousands of sellswords and whatnot, travelling back, etc. It will take months, and that’s an optimistic take on it. 

No, Stannis faking his death is a ruse he will use. I think the Manderlys have switched sides already, and are in on it. 

He won’t use siege weapons. He will use the Manderlys, captured Freys (armours, banners, etc), he will use info he will get from Bran via Theon, and he will use the fact that 99,99% of the people inside Winterfell hate the Boltons (and Freys). 

^This. He'll use the Karstark soldiers for it as well. While the Karstark castellan and his family allied with Stannis to betray him, the men themselves wouldn't know of this. You don't keep a secret by telling all of your soldiers. You just give them the order when the time is ripe. So, most of Karstark's men expect to fight alongside Stannis.

If Stannis is very very cunning, then he could switch Theon and Arnolf and send Theon seemingly to Karhold with men of his choice in Karstark livery and a thick fur coat. To the Karstark soldiers it would look as if their castellan is being granted benevolence. And then he sacrifices Arnolf on the island, pretending Arnolf is Theon. And the Karstark soldiers are Stannis' to command.

[kissdbyfire]

30 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

^This. He'll use the Karstark soldiers for it as well. While the Karstark castellan and his family allied with Stannis to betray him, the men themselves wouldn't know of this. You don't keep a secret by telling all of your soldiers. You just give them the order when the time is ripe. So, most of Karstark's men expect to fight alongside Stannis.

If Stannis is very very cunning, then he could switch Theon and Arnolf and send Theon seemingly to Karhold with men of his choice in Karstark livery and a thick fur coat. To the Karstark soldiers it would look as if their castellan is being granted benevolence. And then he sacrifices Arnolf on the island, pretending Arnolf is Theon. And the Karstark soldiers are Stannis' to command.

Good point,I forgot Stannis also has the Karstark men! 

I still think it’s Theon he will bring before the heart tree, and that’s when Bran will take over and have a productive little chat w/ Stannis.

 

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

7 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Good point,I forgot Stannis also has the Karstark men! 

I still think it’s Theon he will bring before the heart tree, and that’s when Bran will take over and have a productive little chat w/ Stannis.

 

I think Theon has to brought before the heart tree. It will be interesting to hear what Bran has to say to Stannis if it does happen. 

[kissdbyfire]

6 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I think Theon has to brought before the heart tree. It will be interesting to hear what Bran has to say to Stannis if it does happen. 

No one knows the secret ways and passages of Winterfell as well as Bran.

AGoT, Bran II

A Game of Thrones - Bran II

It made him feel like he was lord of the castle, in a way even Robb would never know.

It taught him Winterfell's secrets too. The builders had not even leveled the earth; there were hills and valleys behind the walls of Winterfell. There was a covered bridge that went from the fourth floor of the bell tower across to the second floor of the rookery. Bran knew about that. And he knew you could get inside the inner wall by the south gate, climb three floors and run all the way around Winterfell through a narrow tunnel in the stone, and then come out on ground level at the north gate, with a hundred feet of wall looming over you. Even Maester Luwin didn't know that, Bran was convinced.

<snip>

Most of all, he liked going places that no one else could go, and seeing the grey sprawl of Winterfell in a way that no one else ever saw it. It made the whole castle Bran's secret place.

[sweetsunray]

22 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Good point,I forgot Stannis also has the Karstark men! 

I still think it’s Theon he will bring before the heart tree, and that’s when Bran will take over and have a productive little chat w/ Stannis.

 

That's another possibility.

[sweetsunray]

4 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

No one knows the secret ways and passages of Winterfell as well as Bran.

AGoT, Bran II

A Game of Thrones - Bran II

It made him feel like he was lord of the castle, in a way even Robb would never know.

It taught him Winterfell's secrets too. The builders had not even leveled the earth; there were hills and valleys behind the walls of Winterfell. There was a covered bridge that went from the fourth floor of the bell tower across to the second floor of the rookery. Bran knew about that. And he knew you could get inside the inner wall by the south gate, climb three floors and run all the way around Winterfell through a narrow tunnel in the stone, and then come out on ground level at the north gate, with a hundred feet of wall looming over you. Even Maester Luwin didn't know that, Bran was convinced.

<snip>

Most of all, he liked going places that no one else could go, and seeing the grey sprawl of Winterfell in a way that no one else ever saw it. It made the whole castle Bran's secret place.

That's a VERY good reason to have a chat.

[kissdbyfire]

9 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

That's a VERY good reason to have a chat.

Especially if one wants a way into Winterfell that doesn’t involve sieges or storming the castle.

[Jon The Dragon]

I have thought that The Umbers inside Winterfell were on a suicide mission, as in winter all the old Northmen would go off into the winter to die. All the boys are with Mors outside, and all the old men are with Whoresbane inside Winterfell. Unless they are waiting for Greatjon to be freed from The Twins. It will probably be a combination of all the things said in this post. 

[Jon The Dragon]

There is also the issue of a frozen lake that's been over fished leaving many holes all over it, it might not stand up to the weight of an approaching army. I like the idea of Bran telling Theon his secret routes around the castle.

[kissdbyfire]

8 minutes ago, Jon The Dragon said:

There is also the issue of a frozen lake that's been over fished leaving many holes all over it, it might not stand up to the weight of an approaching army. I like the idea of Bran telling Theon his secret routes around the castle.

That lake is gonna be chockablock with Frey corpses soon. Also, Bran is not going to tell Theon anything, he’s going to tell Stannis, after he skinchanges into Theon when he is brought before the heart tree. IMO.