Iron Bank, Littlefinger and The Faceless men

[Jon The Dragon]

I wonder how much influence the Iron Bank have on things behind the scenes, This is an assumption that the IB, Faceless men and Littlefinger are all working together to basically own Westeros, through finance and to own whoever wears the crown, or to enforce regime change. Braavos ties the three together. If that is the case it would show their ability to adapt to, and take advantage of changes on the ground, and how they lay the foundations to replace rulers who might not play ball. The order might be slightly out in places and it could be wrong in how things tie together, interesting to think about. 

1, King Aerys falls out with the IB, Tywin pays the debt instead with Lannister wealth, showing he is willing to pay the crowns debt - Issue settled.

2. Aerys and Tywin fall out, Tywin isn't paying that debt off again, so the crowns debt builds once more - Situation needed for a new person to owe that money as Aerys descends into madness..

3. Rebellion happens, the Targaryens are gone. Tywin backs a new winner with Cersei's hand, Robert takes the debt but doesn't care about money so leaves that to other people - Creating an opportunity for LF to load a crown and Casterly Rock in debt.

4. IB finding out about the incest through LF, Tywin is tied to the crown with his grandkids identity. LF hedges his bets, spreads rumours. - Potentially need to find people who will honour that debt, the Starks or Stannis could be a desirable option as they have a reputation of doing what they say, entice them to KL in case of succession crisis. LF kills Jon Arryn.

5. Tywin may have communicated his willingness to guarantee the crowns debt, The debt now has a name to it, with a person who paid a crowns debt before. Situation changes. (No proof of this though)

6. FM are in kings landing, (LF runs the jail) possibly to start the succession with Roberts death. Cersei does the killing for them instead by chance. LF offers Ned the opportunity to seize power, the offer gets refused, so LF betrays Ned, House Lannister seize the crown, but the incest secret is out, Ned dies causing war.

7. Dragons return to the world, potential problem on the horizon, Dragons are an existential threat. Research is needed to kill them - Find out where and send the FM to retrieve it.

8. The IB arrive at KL to talk about the debt, Tyrion sends the envoy to LF. Joffery isn't showing he would take debt or kingship seriously at all. Crazy kings might not pay debts - Possible situation change needed. 

9. Jaquen is on the way to the wall, works out Arya is a Stark and befriends her, gives her the coin as she may have a future use as a Stark.

10. LF kills Joffery and removes the Stark from KL, Tommen owes the debt now, guaranteed by Tywin, and is now also backed by Highgarden, which LF managed to bring into the equation. LF becomes Lord of Harrenhal and Lord protector of The Vale because of his moves. 

11. Tywin dies, meaning the IB has lost its guarantor for the debt. They try to speak to Cersei but she tells them to basically go away. IB call in all loans, causing discontent in the realm - Who else can take the debt.

12. FM are in Oldtown, with information relating to dragons nearby and a glass candle - Keeping an eye on the future, aware of Braavosi history and dragons.

13. LF has hoarded food in The Vale, who better to sell it to, than people who have borrowed from the IB. Win win if he's working with the IB. If you control the money and food supply, you control a lot.

14. IB now deal with Jon, probably knowing he's a Stark and would honour a debt, business is business, and then Stannis, so he can take the crown and take on the debt. Basically going back to an earlier plan, back Starks and Stannis.

15, Arya is with the FM and Sansa is with LF being looked after. In effect they are Stark hostages if LF, FM and the IB are all working together. Or they could be getting trained for future uses in the realm.

Basically they want to be paid, and have someone on the throne who will be guaranteed to pay all the debt, and controllable.
Are they big players in the story? And are the three factions working with each other as one? I'm not as eloquent as some of you, I hope this is understandable.

[Jon The Dragon]

Hopefully the edit is easier to understand  I'm not the greatest at putting the words down to explain things. I'm just curious if all these events could be connected in some way. A Braavosi conspiracy, financial puppet masters.

[Nevets]

I seriously doubt that the IB, FM and Littlefinger are working together to dominate Westeros, or for any other purpose.  The Iron Bank is in the business of making money through loans, and the FM appears to make most of its money through assassinations.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Ron Bank and the Faceless Men have ties, especially to deal with particularly recalcitrant debtors.  As for Littlefinger, the only entity he works for is Littlefinger.

I doubt that the Iron Bank deliberately loaded up the Crown with more debt than it could handle.   While the Lannisters make a nice backstop, it is hardly assured, and the main interest of the Iron Bank is getting paid back.

I don't know why Jaqen H'ghar was in Kings Landing, and I have doubts that George does wither, to be honest.  In any event, he did not befriend Arya because she was a Stark; he befriended her because she saved his life.  I think he found out she was a Stark later.  The coin was probably just in case things went badly for her, which they did.  That way, the FM could have ties to a prominent Westeros family, useful for intel, shelter, and the like.   Unless he had a premonition, though (always a possibility), I doubt he expected it to be used.

I suspect the loan to the NW has more to do with Stannis than the fact that Jon is in charge.  They may also get rights to harvest resources.  Lands controlled by the NW are rich in timber, for example, which is in very short supply in Braavos.

Littlefinger has Sansa because he is obsessed with Catelyn, and Sansa is ,essentially, a younger Catelyn.  He also recognizes her intelligence, and sees in her a possible protege.  As hostages, the Starks are at this time essentially worthless.They control nothing, and nobody cares enough about them to alter their behavior in the event of a threat to them.  I do think that the FM are training Arya to be an agent for them in Westeros, but that is because she would be well-placed to provide them with information and shelter.

[Jon The Dragon]

32 minutes ago, Nevets said:

The Iron Bank is in the business of making money through loans, and the FM appears to make most of its money through assassinations. 

If there is a King who might not pay, they will speculate on his replacement. Makes sound business sense to make sure you can collect.

38 minutes ago, Nevets said:

As for Littlefinger, the only entity he works for is Littlefinger.

You are probably right there, I just find it a coincidence he was the one who would deal with the Iron Bank all the time as Master of Coin, and embezzled money to build the debt, making himself rich. Eventually using that trust built to gain more titles. PLus he has a family connection to Braavos. A Braavosi agent as Master of Coin dealing with the Iron Bank would be quite funny. If he used Sansa correctly, he would control 3 Kingdoms, the biggest army remaining of those 3 Kingdoms and the food supply.

 

 

35 minutes ago, Nevets said:

I doubt that the Iron Bank deliberately loaded up the Crown with more debt than it could handle.   While the Lannisters make a nice backstop, it is hardly assured, and the main interest of the Iron Bank is getting paid back.

It isn't just the Crown that is owed money, Tywin is too. The richest man in the kingdom is controlled to an extent.

45 minutes ago, Nevets said:

I don't know why Jaqen H'ghar was in Kings Landing, and I have doubts that George does wither, to be honest.  In any event, he did not befriend Arya because she was a Stark; he befriended her because she saved his life.  I think he found out she was a Stark later.

If Littlefinger is a Braavosi connection then hiding Jaqen in the black cells to prepare an assassination wouldn't be hard as he owned all the prison guards. Ned gave Jaqen over to the NW though and Robert died due to Cersei. Jaqen was watching Arya from the cage on their journey and pretty much gave her identity away, before she freed him from the cage. Hiding from Lannister soldiers and shouting Winterfell on a charge probably gave the game away. He had a blood debt to pay to Arya, paid it and left, probably to get a new mission before showing up in Oldtown. Arya wasn't in the mission, but she's handy, so gave her a coin. He see's value in her somehow.

56 minutes ago, Nevets said:

I suspect the loan to the NW has more to do with Stannis than the fact that Jon is in charge.

I think the business with Jon was because he has a Stark reputation attached to him, it's good business. Tycho came to the wall for Stannis, not Jon. It was an opportunist deal. They want to go and find Stannis, that's where the good business is at, twenty thousand troops isn't going to be cheap, and with all the food and transport they need! He also agrees to take on the Crowns debts, that's huge business. 

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

Littlefinger has Sansa because he is obsessed with Catelyn, and Sansa is ,essentially, a younger Catelyn.  He also recognizes her intelligence, and sees in her a possible protege.  As hostages, the Starks are at this time essentially worthless.They control nothing, and nobody cares enough about them to alter their behavior in the event of a threat to them.  I do think that the FM are training Arya to be an agent for them in Westeros, but that is because she would be well-placed to provide them with information and shelter.

And lastly  I know Littlefinger is obsessed with Sansa and that's why I think whatever plan he has in the long run will end with her. She's his strength at the moment, but will be his biggest weakness. Starks seem to be cared about and worth quite a lot to be fair, even fake ones!

Cheers for your input, nice to see different opinions to my own.

[Bowen Marsh]

8 hours ago, Jon The Dragon said:

Basically they want to be paid, and have someone on the throne who will be guaranteed to pay all the debt, and controllable.
Are they big players in the story? And are the three factions working with each other as one? I'm not as eloquent as some of you, I hope this is understandable.

Robert, not Littlefinger, drove Westeros into financial and economic ruin.  The Iron Bank does not directly interfere in Westeros succession, but that changed after Cersei refused to pay.  They are backing Stannis for the moment because they can't get any cooperation from the Lannisters.  If Stannis is dead, per the pink letter, it means they will have to find another person who will agree to honor the crown's debts.  That person would preferably come from a wealthy house.  That rules out the north. 

[Jon The Dragon]

1 minute ago, Bowen Marsh said:

Robert, not Littlefinger, drove Westeros into financial and economic ruin.  The Iron Bank does not directly interfere in Westeros succession, but that changed after Cersei refused to pay.  They are backing Stannis for the moment because they can't get any cooperation from the Lannisters.  If Stannis is dead, per the pink letter, it means they will have to find another person who will agree to honor the crown's debts.  That person would preferably come from a wealthy house.  That rules out the north. 

Tough one about who ruined the Crowns finances, Robert just asked for money and it was down to Littlefinger to find it, it never ran out. Littlefinger also hired so many fake extra people for jobs and used that money to make himself rich. A lot of the key positions in Kings Landing were Littlefingers people as he paid their wage. While gaining titles and small council power.
I thought the Iron Bank had built a notorious reputation of getting paid, be that from who owes it or from his replacement.
If Stannis did die, then Littlefinger has a relationship with the Tyrells, that would need some bribery about knowledge of the Purple Wedding or Cersei and Tommen removing from the equation. Or Jon's identity could be revealed up North and they back him, knowing he pays up. Maybe even Aegon. They do need someone to stick that tab onto. Who'd want to be king haha.

[kissdbyfire]

1 hour ago, Bowen Marsh said:

Robert, not Littlefinger, drove Westeros into financial and economic ruin.  The Iron Bank does not directly interfere in Westeros succession, but that changed after Cersei refused to pay.  They are backing Stannis for the moment because they can't get any cooperation from the Lannisters.  If Stannis is dead, per the pink letter, it means they will have to find another person who will agree to honor the crown's debts.  That person would preferably come from a wealthy house.  That rules out the north. 

I won’t FTFY you again b/c it’s getting boring. But it was the Targs that started running a tab w/ the IB. Aerys II not only didn’t want to pay, but he just had to go all entitled nutjob on the IB. 

TWoIaF, Aerys II

“In 265 AC, offended by “the stink of King’s Landing,” he spoke of building a “white city” entirely of marble on the south bank of the Blackwater Rush. In 267 AC, after a dispute with the Iron Bank of Braavos regarding certain monies borrowed by his father, he announced that he would build the largest war fleet in the history of the world “to bring the Titan to his knees.”

[Jon The Dragon]

You can trace back Braavosi influence in Westeros right back to Aegons conquest, They tried to help The Vale. They also managed to purchase 3 eggs from Alyssa Farman and built Sunchaser, It seems Braavos has been trying to gain a foothold of power in Westeros for centuries. Through the Iron Bank they can rule nations and enforce the debt or choose regime change with the Faceless Men.

It would make sense if they had an agent working for them setting things up. That's where I suggest Littlefinger. Braavosi influence could make sure he did exceptionally well at Gulltown, hoping to get notice at Kings Landing. The plan would have no place for his weird thing with Sansa though. I think his emotions will ruin the plan. Basically a foreign spy failing in his big plan because of love for the enemy. The human heart in conflict.

Even Arya's targets have a financial consequence. The ship insurer, the envoy from Kings Landing and possibly the new Sealord, or to influence who gets the new Sealords job.

Braavos does seem to have a lot of people around The Starks at points, pulling strings and influencing. Syrio, Jaqen, Littlefinger, Tycho etc. Is it all just a coincidence?

[The Ghost Beyond the Wall]

I am doubtful about the IB working with LF, but I definitely think their interests and those of the FM are related somehow. Maybe the IB hires the FM to work as agents to cause turmoil amongst those who refuse to pay their debts, making it so that the new ruler is forced to pay the debts their predecessors neglected to? In any case, I think the crown's debts will have to be paid by someone, and so the IB and its agents will be prominent in the rest of the story, not to mention the FM. I think that's why Jon and Stannis have agreed to make deals with the IB for support. The Braavosi are honorable and noble as well, so this is in line with their character.

[Jon The Dragon]

If you own a bank which lends to foreign governments, it would help massively if you had one of your own working inside those governments. Especially in financial positions. He was Master of Coin, owned the 4 Keeper of The Keys, The Kings Counter and The Kings Scales, toll collectors and the harbour masters, the City Watch and the staff working the jail. Tyrion notices how many men in positions are Littlefingers people, he basically ran the place financially. Littlefinger has used his financial success to gain power in the realm, slowly but surely he gains while others slowly diminish. 

[John Suburbs]

23 hours ago, Jon The Dragon said:

snip

My take: Illyrio is bankrolling Littlefinger to make it seem like he is a financial genius, all in a plot to get the IB to overextend itself so they can orchestrate a run on the bank and collapse the Braavosi economy. Then, Pentos can finally shred the peace treaty that prevents it from arming itself and trading as it pleases.

First, how was it possible for Littlefinger, a minor lord with no way to protect himself, to suddenly start bringing in all this extra revenue to House Arryn without running afoul of the merchants, traders and other customs officers in Gulltown? That money had to come from somewhere, which means LF is either collecting the full tax that is due or he is collecting more. Either way, money that was in someone's pocket last year is now going to the Arryns, and by all rights that should have earned LF a one-way ticket to the bottom of the Narrow Sea.

So now we have LF orchestrating the debt owed by the crown, not just to the IB, but to the Lannisters, the Tyrells, the faith and the trading cartels in the Free Cities -- all the institutions that will be hurt should the crown default on that debt. I'll bet none of that money is owed to anyone in Pentos. As Dance ended, we had the crown ceasing payments on that debt and the IB calling in its loans throughout Westeros. Nominally, this is seen as a way to strong-arm the crown into resuming payments, but in reality, this is a desperation move by the bank because its reserves have fallen so low. Even in financial circles today, a sure sign that a bank is in trouble is when it starts calling in loans before they are due. It means the bank is so worried about its balance sheet that it is willing to forgo future profits to cover present shortfalls. Either way, this is a foolish move by the bank because disrupting the Westerosi economy in this way simply hampers the crown's ability to pay its debt even further.

Another little noticed sign that the bank is in trouble is when Jon broaches the subject of a loan to Tycho. His initial response? Impossible. Why would this be so impossible for the wealthiest, most powerful bank in the known world? The NW needs a few thousand dragons to buy food for the winter, money that would wind up right back in Braavos and thus right back to the IB. This should be a pittance compared to the Iron Throne. Yet Tycho only comes around after Jon offers the collateral he expects to get from the wildlings.

Now, the bank is putting its faith into Stannis, who is currently trapped and starving in the north. Maybe he will prevail, but it is still a long road to the Iron Throne. If he fails, not only are they out the money they loaned the crown, but the money they loaned Stannis as well. Should he fail and fAegon take the crown, now there is a Targaryen king on the throne who has no reason at all to honor the debt incurred by rebels and usurpers. So what, you might ask? If he doesn't pay, just send an FM after him? Sure, they could do that, but then what? All that will do is send the realm right back into civil war with no clear champion for the IB to back. Very likely, this will lead to the re-establishment of seven independent kingdoms, none of which owe the Iron Bank anything.

In this situation, it would only take one well-heeled depositor to be refused a withdrawal and a panic will set in, just as it did with the Rogare Bank and countless other banks in the real world. And who might this depositor be? Why, none other than Littlefinger, who likely built his account embezzling the very same cash that he borrowed from the IB under the crown's name. With the IB gone, so go the reserves that back the iron coin and the Braavosi economy collapses, and fAegon begins his reign debt-free with two principal potential rivals, the Tyrells and the Lannisters, financially wounded, not to mention the Tyroshi and others who may post a threat to Pentos. Illyrio wins.

 

[Jon The Dragon]

8 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Illyrio wins.

Very interesting look on things, I never looked at it that way. I assumed Varys and Littlefinger are playing separate games, this would make them allies.

Varys' plan seemed to be tied with Illyrio and Aegon the secret Targaryen. Somehow they got those dragon eggs too, I suspect they are the ones Alyssa Farman ones sold to Braavos.

Littlefinger's plan seems to be tied with activities from Braavos. His family history and activities made me suspect him being in league with Braavosi institutions. The Iron Bank could have helped him with finances in Gulltown. I think Braavos were unaware of Aegon, they may be unaware of him even now.

You do make good arguments for all of that though. I agree Pentos and Braavos have some issues to settle. There is a financial situation occurring in Westeros manufactured by other people. 

 

[John Suburbs]

44 minutes ago, Jon The Dragon said:

Very interesting look on things, I never looked at it that way. I assumed Varys and Littlefinger are playing separate games, this would make them allies.

Varys' plan seemed to be tied with Illyrio and Aegon the secret Targaryen. Somehow they got those dragon eggs too, I suspect they are the ones Alyssa Farman ones sold to Braavos.

Littlefinger's plan seems to be tied with activities from Braavos. His family history and activities made me suspect him being in league with Braavosi institutions. The Iron Bank could have helped him with finances in Gulltown. I think Braavos were unaware of Aegon, they may be unaware of him even now.

You do make good arguments for all of that though. I agree Pentos and Braavos have some issues to settle. There is a financial situation occurring in Westeros manufactured by other people. 

 

Nope, I don't think LF and Varys are allies. In the conversation in the dragon room, Varys is genuinely in the dark as to "what game Littlefinger is playing," which would not be the case if they were in cahoots, nor would there be any reason to discuss it with Illyrio since they would all be working together. I think Illyrio is using Varys in one way and LF in another, although it is hard to tell whether LF knows Varys is Illyrio's creature as well. Might be he does.

LF has ties to Braavos, true, but his family was a minor one compared to the keyholders and sealords, so it is just as likely as not that he has a grudge against the high and mighty, perhaps having been cheated out of some fortune that forced his grandfather to become a common sellsword.

[divica]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

My take: Illyrio is bankrolling Littlefinger to make it seem like he is a financial genius, all in a plot to get the IB to overextend itself so they can orchestrate a run on the bank and collapse the Braavosi economy. Then, Pentos can finally shred the peace treaty that prevents it from arming itself and trading as it pleases.

First, how was it possible for Littlefinger, a minor lord with no way to protect himself, to suddenly start bringing in all this extra revenue to House Arryn without running afoul of the merchants, traders and other customs officers in Gulltown? That money had to come from somewhere, which means LF is either collecting the full tax that is due or he is collecting more. Either way, money that was in someone's pocket last year is now going to the Arryns, and by all rights that should have earned LF a one-way ticket to the bottom of the Narrow Sea.

So now we have LF orchestrating the debt owed by the crown, not just to the IB, but to the Lannisters, the Tyrells, the faith and the trading cartels in the Free Cities -- all the institutions that will be hurt should the crown default on that debt. I'll bet none of that money is owed to anyone in Pentos. As Dance ended, we had the crown ceasing payments on that debt and the IB calling in its loans throughout Westeros. Nominally, this is seen as a way to strong-arm the crown into resuming payments, but in reality, this is a desperation move by the bank because its reserves have fallen so low. Even in financial circles today, a sure sign that a bank is in trouble is when it starts calling in loans before they are due. It means the bank is so worried about its balance sheet that it is willing to forgo future profits to cover present shortfalls. Either way, this is a foolish move by the bank because disrupting the Westerosi economy in this way simply hampers the crown's ability to pay its debt even further.

Another little noticed sign that the bank is in trouble is when Jon broaches the subject of a loan to Tycho. His initial response? Impossible. Why would this be so impossible for the wealthiest, most powerful bank in the known world? The NW needs a few thousand dragons to buy food for the winter, money that would wind up right back in Braavos and thus right back to the IB. This should be a pittance compared to the Iron Throne. Yet Tycho only comes around after Jon offers the collateral he expects to get from the wildlings.

Now, the bank is putting its faith into Stannis, who is currently trapped and starving in the north. Maybe he will prevail, but it is still a long road to the Iron Throne. If he fails, not only are they out the money they loaned the crown, but the money they loaned Stannis as well. Should he fail and fAegon take the crown, now there is a Targaryen king on the throne who has no reason at all to honor the debt incurred by rebels and usurpers. So what, you might ask? If he doesn't pay, just send an FM after him? Sure, they could do that, but then what? All that will do is send the realm right back into civil war with no clear champion for the IB to back. Very likely, this will lead to the re-establishment of seven independent kingdoms, none of which owe the Iron Bank anything.

In this situation, it would only take one well-heeled depositor to be refused a withdrawal and a panic will set in, just as it did with the Rogare Bank and countless other banks in the real world. And who might this depositor be? Why, none other than Littlefinger, who likely built his account embezzling the very same cash that he borrowed from the IB under the crown's name. With the IB gone, so go the reserves that back the iron coin and the Braavosi economy collapses, and fAegon begins his reign debt-free with two principal potential rivals, the Tyrells and the Lannisters, financially wounded, not to mention the Tyroshi and others who may post a threat to Pentos. Illyrio wins.

 

I think the obvious flaw in yout theory is that nobody important is interested in a nobody responsable for gulltown… If someone wanted to hurt the IB investing Money and years in a nobody that had very slim chances of ever being master of coin seems pointless...

However, once LF is master of coin I agree he might have allied himself with someone behind the scenes. He knows that he needs some kind of protection once his dealings come to light.

Like he needs some protection once his time in power in the vale ends or tries to use Money to gain more power...

And I don t think that he wants the IT as he said in the show. That is just too unrealistic and he is too old for that...

So him being an ally of someone that wants to destroy the IB would be a good direction for his story...

[Jon The Dragon]

2 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Nope, I don't think LF and Varys are allies. In the conversation in the dragon room, Varys is genuinely in the dark as to "what game Littlefinger is playing," which would not be the case if they were in cahoots, nor would there be any reason to discuss it with Illyrio since they would all be working together. I think Illyrio is using Varys in one way and LF in another, although it is hard to tell whether LF knows Varys is Illyrio's creature as well. Might be he does.

I think Ilyrio's plan is to simply crown Aegon, anything else is a bonus, he's rich already so money isn't a motive. I like how you can see that plot being deeper with Illyrio and Littlefinger, that idea could possibly have some legs. If Illyrio was the Master of Coin he could control the Seven Kingdoms through finance for Aegon and maybe enrich Pentoshi banks further instead of Braavos. The Cheesemonger puppetmaster.

[Jon The Dragon]

14 minutes ago, divica said:

I think the obvious flaw in yout theory is that nobody important is interested in a nobody responsable for gulltown… If someone wanted to hurt the IB investing Money and years in a nobody that had very slim chances of ever being master of coin seems pointless...

Littlefinger manipulates Lysa to get Jon Arryn to give him the job at Gulltown. Jon Arryn rises in power and Littlefinger piggy tails with him. When you make a lot of money people notice! I believe he works for the IB though, and they bankroll him. The end objective is having one of your own in the highest positions possible.

[divica]

4 minutes ago, Jon The Dragon said:

Littlefinger manipulates Lysa to get Jon Arryn to give him the job at Gulltown. Jon Arryn rises in power and Littlefinger piggy tails with him. When you make a lot of money people notice! I believe he works for the IB though, and they bankroll him. The end objective is having one of your own in the highest positions possible.

But gulltown is almost insignificant and he didn t have people with power supporting him...

If it wasn t for lysa it was much more likely for jon arryn to chose some wealty noble instead of LF. And LF couldn t really say to a powerfull ally that he doesn t need to worry because lysa will eventually get him the master of coin position. I think this is just to unlikely for someone to believe...

And I think @John Suburbs is onto something. Westeros debt to the IB is so big that it might actually be causing them problems. And it makes sense. Westeros should be about half to 1/3 of planetos size and it is higly populated compared to essos. So it moves a lot of Money… If their debt is very big by westerosi standard then it should be very big by the IB standard.

And then we have the crash of slavery that is afecting the economy in essos. How many people are having problems with paying loans to the IB because of the problems in selling slaves? How many people owning Money to the IB has danny's war killed or made sudenly poor? Don t Forget how desperate the guy from qarth was for danny to go to westeros… ( @John Suburbs you can add this to your theory about the IB being in trouble).

Can you imagine what will happen to a lot of wealthy people in essos if danny wins the battle in mereen? If the red priests can actually make volatins side with her or if she also defeats them? I can actually see the IB being in serious trouble.

[Jon The Dragon]

Gulltown would of been a means to an end, once its generating many times what it used to he would get noticed. If Littlefinger is Braavos' man or Illyrio's then that job is the first rung on the ladder to power, and an education in money.

Illyrio needs to be leaving Pentos by the time Dany gets there, she could be pissed when she finds out about Aegon and his lovely upbringing from Tyrion!

The Faceless Men seem to be looking in Oldtown for a solution to the coming dragon problem.

Could all the political goings on in Westeros be a covert proxy war between Pentos and Braavos?

[Rondo]

The Iron Bank backed the wrong horses.  Stannis will lose this war and Jon is not reliable.  Jon will do what he thinks is best for the Starks.  He will not honor that debt if it will somehow hurt the chances of a Stark restoration.  We all know the Starks cannot afford to pay this debt or any debt for that matter.  They are a ruined family.  Even restoring them to Winterfell is not going to solve the financial problem.  There are no crops to harvest in winter and so there will be no revenues coming to the wolves.  None. 

A slave revolt in Volantis and the other slaving cities could actually help the Iron Bank clear its financial obligations.  After all, there are borrowers and lenders/depositors.  Yes, many of the borrowers will die but many of the depositors will die too.  Revenue will be reduced but so will the Liability to the depositors.  The bank gets to clear its books. 

[John Suburbs]

On 12/6/2019 at 2:00 PM, divica said:

I think the obvious flaw in yout theory is that nobody important is interested in a nobody responsable for gulltown… If someone wanted to hurt the IB investing Money and years in a nobody that had very slim chances of ever being master of coin seems pointless...

However, once LF is master of coin I agree he might have allied himself with someone behind the scenes. He knows that he needs some kind of protection once his dealings come to light.

Like he needs some protection once his time in power in the vale ends or tries to use Money to gain more power...

And I don t think that he wants the IT as he said in the show. That is just too unrealistic and he is too old for that...

So him being an ally of someone that wants to destroy the IB would be a good direction for his story...

meh, Littlefinger has close personal ties to Lady Arryn . . . Lord Arryn is desperate to please his unstable, despondent wife . . . Lord Arryn is Hand of the King, and the king is not terribly interested in appointments or other aspects of actual governance . . . It's not as long of a stretch as all that.