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If Ned+Ashara= Jon, was Jon unwanted in Dorne?

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5 hours ago, Melifeather said:

Why are you unnecessarily sarcastic? We were discussing size. You asserted that anybody that spent a lot of time with infants would recognize a three month old versus a nine month old and I was disputing that. Joffrey was noted to be taller than either Jon or Robb even though he was two years younger.

Size is not the relevant context for infants, and your story was about infants.

5 hours ago, Melifeather said:

This is simply, just not true. There is a wide range in development that is considered "normal". Doctors have elaborate charts that they refer to when they measure a child during check-ups. They often tell the parents what percentile their child falls under.

It is true. You just bent 3 truths out of recognisable shape.

A 3 month old may or may not be be supporting their heading alone when lying on their stomach, turning their heads to follow stimulus, grabbing and shaking hand toys, smiling at familiar faces etc etc.
A nine month old may or may not be getting into a sitting position unaided, standing against chairs, starting to make first recognisable and appropriate verbals, putting objects into and out of containers, etc etc

These are not remotely comparable stages.

3 hours ago, Melifeather said:

Fathering Jon on Ashara after the Rebellion would make Jon too young. Catelyn really has no idea how he came to be and is trying to make sense of it. The only one of the two choices that she confronted Ned about was Ashara, so it must have been the most likely in her mind.

No one, not Catelyn, not us, suggest Jon was fathered on Ashara when Ned went to Starfall to return Dawn. Jon wouldn't even have been born before Ned and Catelyn were back in Winterfell.

It is entirely reasonable for Catelyn to suppose it possible for Ned to have gone from her bed to campaign and met Ashara and conceived Jon within a month or two marrying her. I have no idea why you ignore this option and rightly dismiss a ridiculous alternative instead.

3 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

That’s why trying to guess Jon’s age based on any assumptions Cat makes is futile. Cat is not a reliable narrator when it comes to Jon.  You can’t disregard the fact that it’s in Cat’s best interest for Jon to be younger than Robb.  Cat’s problem with Jon has always been the inherent threat he is to her children’s inheritance.  

You shouldn't be able to disregard the fact that if Jon is conceived before the war started then it would be clear and obvious to pretty much everyone who pays any attention that he's older than Robb when they are first together - at approximately age 3 months for Robb (Catelyn and Ned were apart a year and Catelyn came back to Winterfell to find Ned and Jon already there) and 9 months+ for Jon.

3 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I know everyone pretty much ignores this, but Harwin makes it clear that the rumor around Winterfell, isn’t just that Ashara is Jon’s mom, but Ashara and Ned’s affair took place around the time of Harrenhal.  Which very well mean that the servants around Winterfell, who probably spent more time with Ned’s bastard than Cat ever did, think that Jon may have been born well before Robb.

Thats not accurate, and misleading. Harwin is clear that if an affair started at Harrenhal (which he thinks untrue) then it wouldn;t be a shame. Harwin does not address at all the possibility that there was further dalliance between Ned and Ashara later (soon after Ned's marriage, while on campaign), which would be necessary for Jon to be of an age with Robb.

Ned's clear and explicit wish was that Robb and Jon grow up as brothers. And they clearly did. Catelyn must have spent significant time around Jon if she wanted to spend any time at all with Robb. 

3 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Regardless, if we take these So Spake Martin’s seriously, than we probably have to conclude that Jon has to be a good bit older than Robb.

Your maths is in error.

3 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

 GRRM puts Jon’s birth 8 to 9 months before Dany’s.  Which means that Jon could have been born around the time that Dany conceived

...or a month after. 

3 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

which happened before the Battle of the Trident.  And the Battle of the Trident is less than a year after the war started, by Ned’s recollection.

Quote please.
Ned thinks "the war raged for close to a year" (which could be just over or just under, lets call it just under for you, say 11.5 months). The Trident is very near the end, with only a couple of weeks or so for Ned to race down to KL and find the Lannisters there Sacking it.
 

So.
Dany is conceived before the Trident, say month 11-11.5. Jon is therefore born around month 11-12.5 by the SSM.
12.5 fits about right for Ned to get to ToJ and find Jon already born and Lyanna dying of of a fever in a bed of blood (10 days after birth is about right for puerperal fever).
Robb is conceived about 3-4 months into the war and born around month 12-13.

Jon and Robb are of an age, close enough together that Robb can reasonably be thought of as the elder by a little. He might even be the elder by a little.

Given GRRM's notoriously poor time/distance/plotting and warnings not to do this, the data points all fit together rather well.

3 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

So the question you have to ask yourself is, how much time do you legitimately think elapsed between Robb’s conception and the Battle of the Trident?

8 months give or take a month or so.
The first few months of the war are all in a rush - driven in part by Robert, famous for his rushing. But after the Battle of the Bells there is a necessary pause. While the Rebels have tactical ascendency in parts of Westeros after beating and dispersing the Royalist army, but there is little they can actually do. They haven't had time to bring their full forces to bear, bring up the levies, which take time to raise and march to the Riverlands. They aren't strong enough to march on and take KL. They probably still have to secure their own rear areas, homelands, and supply chains against the Lords and Castles in all sorts of places that stayed loyal to the Targaryens. Plus there is diplomacy to conduct with the Westlands and Ironborn uncommitted and Dorne worth a try to wedge off the Targs given Rhaegar and Aerys' behaviours. Its not actually a surpirse that the next major move comes from teh Royalists when Rhaegar advances into the Riverlands with the reformed army..

2 hours ago, Melifeather said:

Ned told Robert that Jon's mother was named Wylla,

No he did not. He told Robert that the name of the woman whom Robert thinks of as 'his common girl', 'his one time', is Wylla. Ned does not, as far as we can tell, ever tell Robert that Wylla is Jon's mother. Robert states that himself.

2 hours ago, Melifeather said:

I don't believe the promise or promises he made to Lyanna had anything to do with Jon at all. I have two suspected promises, 1) that Rhaegar never kidnapped her, and 2) that she made Ned promise to give her the gift of mercy. When Ned came upon Lyanna she was dying and in great pain. I think she was raped multiple times and had a festering sword injury. When Ned killed Lady in order to spare her, I think it was an echo of what he did for Lyanna.

And yet, the pleading of a young mother for the life and future of her bastard child under his protection led Ned directly to thoughts of his promises to Lyanna.

Quote

"I will," Ned had promised her. That was his curse. Robert would swear undying love and forget them before evenfall, but Ned Stark kept his vows. He thought of the promises he'd made Lyanna as she lay dying, and the price he'd paid to keep them.

I know, you've got some other irrational explanation for that. Lets not go there again But everyone else can read the passage about Barra for themselves and come to their own conclusions.

2 hours ago, Melifeather said:

I find it hard to believe that Ned brought an infant all the way from Starfall to Winterfell. Such a journey would be really hard on an infant.

Yep, riding in a covered cart or on board a ship, with a dedicated wetnurse. Practically impossible!

2 hours ago, Melifeather said:

When Catelyn left Riverrun with Robb, she hints in the text that Ned was with her:

The text says otherwise, there is no such hint.

1 hour ago, Melifeather said:

And here's the thing about Wylla. Why choose to name the Dayne's wetnurse as the mother when Jon is obviously older than Ned's visit to Starfall?

Because Ned used Wylla to get Jon from either or both of SToJ to Starfall and/or Starfall to Winterfell.
Starfall believes Wylla is the mother. They know Ashara is not. Clearly when Ned rode in to Starfall he already had Jon and Wylla with him. Its the scenario which fits all the stories and all the data points. It even fits Robert's understanding. He would have a report from Varys about Ned's trip to Starfall and if Ned rode into Starfall with Wylla and Jon then Robert's conclusion that Wylla is the mother makes sense. When Ned visits Robert (without Wylla or Jon) to make up, Robert pushed Ned about his common girl and Ned gives him Wylla name, much like their later conversation we saw. It all fits all the data points, all the personalities, all the behaviours we see. 

1 hour ago, Melifeather said:

Ned Dayne was very matter of fact about naming her as Jon's mother and that she has been employed at Starfall for many years.

Yes. No surprise at all. Wylla was Jon's wetnurse and does work at Starfall and has been there since before Edric was born. There is no reason for her to stay with Ned after she is finished nursing Jon and Starfall is the ideal place for her. She may even have originally been 'sourced' as Jon's wetnurse for Lyanna by Arthur Dayne or Ashara. It works for everyone if she returns there.

1 hour ago, Melifeather said:

Another strange thing is how the name Wylla echoes the Manderly family. Wyman has a son Wylis, and two granddaughters named Wynafryd and Wylla. I think Ashara gained her new identity from staying with the Manderlys after she and Ned crossed the Bite.

There is nothing strange about this. People have names. Some of them are similar, some even the same.

1 hour ago, Melifeather said:

And speaking of the fisherman's daughter. Do you think GRRM included this tale as something superfluous and without significance?

It serves two purposes. It serves to obfuscate Jon's parentage and it illustrates how local gossip is made up about far way events and how disinformation spreads and works.

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

I don’t know why Ned told Robert that Jon’s mother was called Wylla.

He didn't. Read it carefully. 

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

Maybe because back then, when he told Robert, Wylla was very much on his mind, given the whole thing at the ToJ etc. But that probably happened close to 14 years prior to the convo Robert and Ned have on their way to King’s Landing. 

Wylla really was the wetnurse. There was no reason not to give her name to Robert if he asked, and plenty of reasons not to be obviously hiding things from Robert.

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

AGoT, Eddard II

”You were never the boy you were,” Robert grumbled. “More’s the pity. And yet there was that one time ... what was her name, that common girl of yours? Becca? No, she was one of mine, gods love her, black eyes and these sweet black eyes, you could drown in them. Yours was ... Aleena? No. You told me once. Was it Merryl? You know the one I mean, your bastard’s mother?”

”Her name was Wylla,” Ned replied with cool courtesy, “and I would sooner not speak of her.”

Ned told Robert the name once. Ned didn't say she was Jon's mother. Robert did.

1 hour ago, Melifeather said:

I find it hard to believe that Ashara would hunt Ned down during the war for a bootie call.

She didn't. But Catelyn doesn't know much about her. Its not hard for Catelyn to think that, or something similar.

1 hour ago, Melifeather said:

Ashara was Elia's handmaiden. If she left Elia's side it wouldn't have been for something as frivolous as a sexual relationship. It would be very dangerous to travel for no particular reason other than to try and find Ned

Ashara used to be Elia Handmaid. She was disgraced by events at Harrenhal. At some stage after that she was dismissed and ended up iback in Starfall, not by Elia's side. She supposedly had a child, stillborn. She was never wed. 
Unwed and pregnant handmaids don't get to keep their positions.

We have no idea where Ashara was at any time between Harrenhal and Ned's visit to Starfall. Period.

1 hour ago, Melifeather said:

Ned and Jon Arryn approached Hoster Tully to request men to help save Robert at Stoney Sept. The marriages sealed the contract, and I think the two weeks (fortnight) was the time it took for Hoster to muster his men. Two weeks is also long enough to hold a wedding, so I think they were married before Stoney Sept.

Jon Arryn married Lysa Tully because he needed an heir and she was proven fertile and Hoster was getting what he could for his swords.
Jon had an heir before the Battle of the Bells, Denys Arryn, slain by Connington during the Battle. 
The marriage was clearly after the battle, despite your wishes.

Quote

If she had lost a child before, that might explain Father's words, and much else besides . . . Lysa's match with Lord Arryn had been hastily arranged, and Jon was an old man even then, older than their father. An old man without an heir. His first two wives had left him childless, his brother's son had been murdered with Brandon Stark in King's Landing, his gallant cousin had died in the Battle of the Bells. He needed a young wife if House Arryn was to continue . . . a young wife known to be fertile.

 

 

1 hour ago, Melifeather said:

Her father is dead. Her brother Arthur is dead. Her older brother is also dead. There are no male heirs left to force her into marriage other than Ned Dayne, who would have been born after she already assumed the identity.

No, he isn't.
The unnamed older brother is definitely alive at this time. Ned Dayne isn't born until 287, so his "supposed" (there's no reason at all to suspect anything out of the ordinary here) father must be alive still at the start of 286. Thats 2-3 years after Ashara's death.
For all we know Edric's father didn't die until the late 90's!

You've got Edric's father's death completely screwed around and its messed with all your associated theories.

 

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14 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

I think the interpretation is more open than that. Jon was at Winterfell when Catelyn arrived, and the text implies that Ned escorted Catelyn home from Riverrun. 

 

I wholeheartedly disagree here. The text is quite clear, Ned brought Jon home with him. The quote you provided earlier about MC on the other hand doesn’t really imply that Ned was w/ Cat and Robb when they were on their way to Winterfell. IMO. 

14 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

OK, so I didn't phrase that very well. I'm sure there are other male relatives that would want to make a match for Ashara - if they could. Edric Dayne is the current Lord of Starfall, but he was away from home, squiring for Beric Dondarrion. Now that Beric is dead, he may have returned home. Somebody is holding down the fort for Edric, but it's not his father. Perhaps a man-at-arms? Whoever is left is going along with Ashara's wishes.

The parallel to Sansa suggests that Ashara has an aunt or at least a female relative left at Starfall. 

I don’t really see a parallel w/ Sansa, but yeah, we know Ned Dayne has at least an aunt, Allyria, who was engaged to Beric. Some speculate that Allyria isn’t Ashara and Arthur’s sister, but rather Ashara’s “stillborn” baby girl. 

14 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

Ned Stark knows Ashara isn't dead, but Edric "Ned" Dayne" doesn't know Wylla is Ashara.

It just seems like any child named after Ned Stark feels sentimental. Ned killed Arthur. I don't think returning his sword would be enough to want to name a future heir of Starfall after the man that killed one it's greatest knights. But it does feel like something a woman with feelings for an old love would do.

He wasn’t, he was named Edric. 

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18 minutes ago, corbon said:

He didn't. Read it carefully. 

I did. 

18 minutes ago, corbon said:

Wylla really was the wetnurse. There was no reason not to give her name to Robert if he asked, and plenty of reasons not to be obviously hiding things from Robert.

Exactly. 

18 minutes ago, corbon said:

Ned told Robert the name once. Ned didn't say she was Jon's mother. Robert did.

Yes. But the way it’s phrased, the way the convo goes... to me it reads very much like a subject they talked about in the past. Way back, after the rebellion, when Robert first learned Ned had a bastard son. Robert says Ned was never the boy he was, then recalls there was the one time but doesn’t remember the woman’s name. But he only knows there was the one time b/c Ned turned up w/ a baby or told Robert he had a bastard son. So, the whole conversation about the woman’s name revolves around Ned’s only fling and the fact that he got a son out of it. And that’s why, when Robert is trying to remember this woman’s name when they’re on their way to KL in AGoT, Robert brings up the “fact” that she is Jon’s mother. It’s open to interpretation, of course, but that’s my interpretation of that dialogue. 

Edited by kissdbyfire

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14 minutes ago, corbon said:

8 months give or take a month or so.
The first few months of the war are all in a rush - driven in part by Robert, famous for his rushing. But after the Battle of the Bells there is a necessary pause. While the Rebels have tactical ascendency in parts of Westeros after beating and dispersing the Royalist army, but there is little they can actually do. They haven't had time to bring their full forces to bear, bring up the levies, which take time to raise and march to the Riverlands. They aren't strong enough to march on and take KL. They probably still have to secure their own rear areas, homelands, and supply chains against the Lords and Castles in all sorts of places that stayed loyal to the Targaryens. Plus there is diplomacy to conduct with the Westlands and Ironborn uncommitted and Dorne worth a try to wedge off the Targs given Rhaegar and Aerys' behaviours. Its not actually a surpirse that the next major move comes from teh Royalists when Rhaegar advances into the Riverlands with the reformed army..

Please.  You’re completely ignoring the time that it would take for Arryn, Eddard, Robert and Tully to call together their Bannermen and form an army.  You don’t think any negotiations had to occur to convince bannermen to engage in open warfare against the Throne?  How long do you think it took for Eddard to bring together the various armies in the geographically huge north to gather and then march to the south?  3 to 4 months for these lords to form their armies and then travel, and then engage in battles, but 8 to 9 months just  to bring up levies inside the Riverlands and get supply chains?

 

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23 minutes ago, corbon said:

Quote please.
Ned thinks "the war raged for close to a year" (which could be just over or just under, lets call it just under for you, say 11.5 months). The Trident is very near the end, with only a couple of weeks or so for Ned to race down to KL and find the Lannisters there Sacking it.

I’ve never seen “close to a year” mean over a year.  

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25 minutes ago, corbon said:

Ned's clear and explicit wish was that Robb and Jon grow up as brothers. And they clearly did. Catelyn must have spent significant time around Jon if she wanted to spend any time at all with Robb. 

Cat didn’t have to spend any time around Jon as a babe, and it seems highly unlikely that she did considering everything Jon represented to her.

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56 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

So you’re saying that in less than three months the following happened:

1. Arryn calls his banners and the Battle of Gulltown is fought.

Yep, this is when the three months starts.

56 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

2. Ned Stark makes his trip through the Fingers, Sisterton and to White Harbor to make his way to Winterfell.

Yep, Ned takes the fastest way home he can manage, doubtlessly sending ravens home first to get preparations underway. His banners can be (should be!) called by raven at the same time as Jon Arryn's are.

56 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

3.  Robert Baratheon sails to Storm’s End where he calls his banners.  Other lords gather to oppose him.  Than the Battles at Summerhall.

Thats a few days trip from Gulltown, maybe a week. And he can call the banners by raven before Gulltown, the same as Ned and Jon Arryn.

56 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

4.  Robert marches from Storm’s End where he encounters Randall’s forces at the Battle of Ashford.

You missed a bit! Yes, its even worse, more rushed, than you think.
First, Robert rushed off to fight three small battles in a day at Summerhall, against Grandison, Cafferen and Fell.
Then he takes the defeated back to Storms End and feasts them (Fell's son, as Robert killed Fell in battle), turning them to his side.
Give the size of these battles (3 in one day!) and the rushed timing of everything I think its clear that these are small battle, probably better named skirmishes, fought between the small, all-mounted, household troops of these lords and maybe a few extras. Not their full levies etc. This enables faster movement, Robert's quick reactions, 3 battles in one day, and the return to Storms End for feasting.

THEN Robert hears about the approach of the Tyrell army. 
Again, I think he has a relatively small army still of the mainly permanently embodied household troops ( with more lords than before now, so a bit bigger) and he races of at high speed to stop the Tyrells at the border.

Hence, Ashford. Where merely the Tyrell van is enough to defeat Robert-the-invincible. But not to catch him or stop him. Again, its a smaller, probably all-mounted, probably mostly household troops rather than levies army, which Robert then withdraws with northwards to meet up with his allies.

56 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

5.  Eddard calls his Banners and than marches south where he ultimately meets up with Arryn and his forces.

I think Eddard is doing a similar thing to Robert. He marches south with what can be raised in quick time, gathering whats ready as he passes. The main force of levies will follow later as they take longer to raise, need training, and move slower. Ned can move faster but doesn't have a large army.

56 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

6.  Eddard and Arryn negotiate with Lord Hoster Tully to gain his support.

Which doesn;t take a lot of time necessarily. 

56 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

7.  Connington chases Robert’s army to the Stoney Sept.  Robert hides out in the Stoney Sept.  

Yes. Robert has retreated from Ashford north towards his allies, probably wounded at Ashford. He only gets as far as Stoney Sept before Connington finds him with the main early Targ forces (the Tyrells marched onward to Storms End rather than following Robert).

56 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

8.  Stark and Tully arrive at Stoney Sept and the Battle of the Bells occurs.

yep. Nobody has huge armies. Its all the smaller, faster forces than can be quickly organised. 
I think the Ned's marriage has been arranged already - its easy, as he's really taking his brother's place in a pre-arrangment,  but Jon's not yet planned.

56 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

9.  The marriages of Jon Arryn and Eddard Stark are than arranged.

I think when Jon loses his heir Hoster sees a chance to marry Lysa. The marriage is hastily arranged.

56 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

While in your timeline after Robb is conceived nine months elapse before any other battle of significance happens??

Pretty much. The Rebels don't have the forces to take KL yet. They need their levies to arrive. They need their rear areas secured and their own Targ Loyalist holdouts dealt with. There is diplomacy to conduct with the Westland, the Ironborn and possibly Dorne.

Its notable that the next actual movement we know about is Rhaegar to the Trident. I think by the time the Rebels were ready to move, the royalists had regainso the Roebels didn't actually have a move to make.
I think it was the death of Rhaegar at the Trident that blew the war wide open.

56 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Cat says that Robb was born nine months after their honeymoon.  She states that Eddard is still fighting battles in the south.  The battles in the south did not end after the Battle of the Trident or the Sack of King’s Landing.

Major battles did. Cat doesn;t know much and is talking generally. There were no more major battles after the Trident, other than the Sack, but there would still be holdouts or groups that hadn't got the news yet - or diplomatic "battles" such as Ned accepting the Tyrell surrender.

56 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

In fact we know that Eddard rode out after the Sack to continue fighting battles in the South.

Metaphorically, yes. And possibly some some fights and skirmishes.
Like the ToJ for example.

56 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

We know that the Seige of Storm’s End lasted a good bit after the Sack of King’s Landing.  

Only long enough for Ned to ride there and accept their surrender. And he left almost immediately, the same day that Tywin presented Rhaegar's kids to Robert.

56 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

We know this because we’re told that the war raged for almost a year before the Sack, while the Siege of Storm’s End only began after the Battle of Ashford and it also lasts almost a year.

And Ashford was in the first month or two of the war. So if Storms End siege closes when Ned arrives a few weeks after the Sack, then the siege lasted from about month 1.5-2 to 12-12.5. Close enough to count as "almost a year".

56 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

We have no idea when the Battle at the tower of joy occurs only that it had to have occurred after the Siege of Storm’s End was lifted and within a year of Cat’s marriage to Eddard.

Well, no confirmation. And idea, since nothing else happens that we know of between the two and clearly Ned is going there in a hurry to get Lyanna.

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Sorry I’m calling BS.  I know you have to compress everything for it to make sense in your time frame, and if we are dealing with the HBO show, then sure whatever.  But there is no way you can get to the Battle of Ashford within one or two months after Arryn calls his banners.  

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12 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Yes. But the way it’s phrased, the way the convo goes... to me it reads very much like a subject they talked about in the past.

The only thing explicitly discussed in the past from Ned's side was the name.
Robert clearly believes now, and almost certainly then, that Wylla is Jon's mother. But there is no evidence Ned told him that and it would be utterly out of character, inconstsent with everything we see and stupid and unnecessary for Ned to say that

12 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Way back, after the rebellion, when Robert first learned Ned had a bastard son. Robert says Ned was never the boy he was, then recalls there was the one time but doesn’t remember the woman’s name.

Its the one time that he's heard about, because he explicitly never met the woman.

12 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

But he only knows there was the one time b/c Ned turned up w/ a baby or told Robert he had a bastard son. So, the whole conversation about the woman’s name revolves around Ned’s only fling and the fact that he got a son out of it. And that’s why, when Robert is trying to remember this woman’s name when they’re on their way to KL in AGoT, Robert brings up the “fact” that she is Jon’s mother.

Yep. I agree absolutely with all of that. But none of it indicates Ned told Robert that Wylla was the mother. It only indicates that Robert thought Wylla was the mother,a nd that Ned gave him Wylla's name when asked it. How Robert got that thought is not clear.

12 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

It’s open to interpretation, of course, but that’s my interpretation of that dialogue. 

Well, basically most people (you among them apparently) posit Ned told Robert that Jon's mother was Wylla. 
I see that as being utterly inconsistent with everything we see from Ned, and stupid and unnecessary.
Consistently, Ned shuts down every conversation about Jon's mother and offers no information at all. He does so coldly and angrily. This is completely consistent with his need to hide the facts about Jon;s birth and his knowledge that he's not a good liar. 
the only information we ever see him offer is that the woman Robert is thinking of is called Wylla, and he offers that because Robert already knows it and it would be suspicious to try to hide it.
I think its stupid for Ned to literally tell Robert Wylla is the mother because she actually isn't and Ned has no real knowledge of Wylla's whereabouts or actions around the time of Jon's conception. It may well be easily provable that Ned is lying, should someone try. Nothing worse to incite suspicion and interest than getting caught in a lie. So don't lie.

I see also that Starfall thinks Wylla is the mother. Now why would they think that? Because they saw Ned ride into Starfall to return Dawn with Wylla and Jon already in tow. The natural suspicion is that Wylla is the mother and nothing Ned says or does denies this. 

I suspect Robert got that same information. Ned rode into Starfall with Wylla and Jon already in tow. He surely would have had a report form Varys about that visit. The report may have even included the idea that Wylla was the mother. Even if it doesn't, its still the natural conclusion for Robert.

So Robert wants to know about this common woman who broke his foster-brothers holier-than-thou celibacy. Ned's one time. So he asks Ned. But Robert already has the idea that the woman is Ned's bastard's mother, so just like the conversation we saw, Ned only needs to give the name, which he has no reason not to.
Heck, Ned could outright deny that Wylla was the mother in that first conversation (no reason for him to say anything in my opinion but he could), and Robert would still just see that as confirmation!

11 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Please.  You’re completely ignoring the time that it would take for Arryn, Eddard, Robert and Tully to call together their Bannermen and form an army.  You don’t think any negotiations had to occur to convince bannermen to engage in open warfare against the Throne?  How long do you think it took for Eddard to bring together the various armies in the geographically huge north to gather and then march to the south?  3 to 4 months for these lords to form their armies and then travel, and then engage in battles, but 8 to 9 months just  to bring up levies inside the Riverlands and get supply chains?

 

No, I'm not, as you will have read by now. In fact I use those very things to explain several other odd facts and weave in other data points - like 3 battles in one day and Robert's reputation for lightning movement, and the long gap between the Bells and the Trident.

6 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

I’ve never seen “close to a year” mean over a year.  

And for your sake I used under a year.

4 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Cat didn’t have to spend any time around Jon as a babe, and it seems highly unlikely that she did considering everything Jon represented to her.

We agree to disagree on that. Ned explictily prayed to his gods for Jon and Robb to grow up close as brothers, and they clearly did just that. So Jon and Robb, brothers of an age, would have been together often from the very start and if Cat wanted to spend time with Robb, Jon would be around, even if she ignored him.

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14 minutes ago, corbon said:

It is entirely reasonable for Catelyn to suppose it possible for Ned to have gone from her bed to campaign and met Ashara and conceived Jon within a month or two marrying her. I have no idea why you ignore this option and rightly dismiss a ridiculous alternative instead.

I guess anything is possible, but it would be nice if there was even a hint in the text to build such a connection. 

17 minutes ago, corbon said:

A 3 month old may or may not be be supporting their heading alone when lying on their stomach, turning their heads to follow stimulus, grabbing and shaking hand toys, smiling at familiar faces etc etc.
A nine month old may or may not be getting into a sitting position unaided, standing against chairs, starting to make first recognisable and appropriate verbals, putting objects into and out of containers, etc etc

These are not remotely comparable stages.

Do we even know how old Robb was when Catelyn brought him to Winterfell? I think all we have to go on is after the Rebellion. That's a wide open window there to be trying to nail it down to Robb being 3 months old.

20 minutes ago, corbon said:

No he did not. He told Robert that the name of the woman whom Robert thinks of as 'his common girl', 'his one time', is Wylla. Ned does not, as far as we can tell, ever tell Robert that Wylla is Jon's mother. Robert states that himself.

You are twisting this passage into a pretzel! Robert asked the name of the mother and Ned answered Wylla. How clear does the text need to be for you?

21 minutes ago, corbon said:

Your maths is in error.

The timeline is debatable and the one you prefer doesn't make FFR's an "error". We are provided a very rough outline that can be slid back and forth to suit nearly any theory.

24 minutes ago, corbon said:

I know, you've got some other irrational explanation

Why are my explanations irrational? And why are you allowed to denigrate me without receiving warnings? 

Is this OP about the promises Ned made Lyanna or is it a discussion about Ashara? I'm going to try my best to stay on topic.

26 minutes ago, corbon said:

The text says otherwise, there is no such hint.

I had already provided the text which you are choosing to dismiss, because it doesn't fit your preferred theories.

29 minutes ago, corbon said:

Because Ned used Wylla to get Jon from either or both of SToJ to Starfall and/or Starfall to Winterfell.

The text doesn't say that. Ned told Robert the name of Jon's mother was Wylla. He never said aloud or in his thoughts that he used her to get Jon from Starfall to Winterfell. This is an assumption. Yes, Jon had a wetnurse at Winterfell, but not once does anyone confirm that her name was Wylla. If Wylla is Ashara, she would have been long gone before Catelyn arrived.

33 minutes ago, corbon said:

Starfall believes Wylla is the mother. They know Ashara is not. Clearly when Ned rode in to Starfall he already had Jon and Wylla with him. Its the scenario which fits all the stories and all the data points. It even fits Robert's understanding. He would have a report from Varys about Ned's trip to Starfall and if Ned rode into Starfall with Wylla and Jon then Robert's conclusion that Wylla is the mother makes sense. When Ned visits Robert (without Wylla or Jon) to make up, Robert pushed Ned about his common girl and Ned gives him Wylla name, much like their later conversation we saw. It all fits all the data points, all the personalities, all the behaviours we see. 

Edric Dayne said he and Jon were milk brothers and that Wylla was Jon's mother. This is what he was told. We don't have any other insight into what anybody else at Starfall might believe or know.

Where is the evidence that Ned rode to Starfall with Jon and Wylla? Ned's fever dream has only himself and Howland riding away. 

What is Robert's understanding? 

Quote

 

"You were never the boy you were," Robert grumbled. "More's the pity. And yet there was that one time … what was her name, that common girl of yours? Becca? No, she was one of mine, gods love her, black hair and these sweet big eyes, you could drown in them. Yours was … Aleena? No. You told me once. Was it Merryl? You know the one I mean, your bastard's mother?"

"Her name was Wylla," Ned replied with cool courtesy, "and I would sooner not speak of her."

"Wylla. Yes." The king grinned. "She must have been a rare wench if she could make Lord Eddard Stark forget his honor, even for an hour. You never told me what she looked like …"

 

Nothing in this passage nails down the timing or location. Only that Ned forgot his honor, and even that it open to interpretation. It doesn't confirm an affair after marriage. It could refer to sex outside of marriage.

39 minutes ago, corbon said:

Ashara used to be Elia Handmaid. She was disgraced by events at Harrenhal. At some stage after that she was dismissed and ended up iback in Starfall, not by Elia's side. She supposedly had a child, stillborn. She was never wed. 
Unwed and pregnant handmaids don't get to keep their positions.

There is nothing in the text saying that Ashara was dismissed, because she was dishonored. On the contrary, it's more likely she became a handmaiden because she was dishonored. Maids with intact maidenheads are usually promised in marriage by 15 years of age. Harwin said Ashara wasn't yet promised at the tourney and she wouldn't have known she was pregnant until 6-8 weeks later.

42 minutes ago, corbon said:

We have no idea where Ashara was at any time between Harrenhal and Ned's visit to Starfall. Period.

Nothing in your preferred black and white text, but plenty of clues can be found in the symbolism, metaphors, and parallels in the titled chapters.

44 minutes ago, corbon said:

Jon had an heir before the Battle of the Bells, Denys Arryn, slain by Connington during the Battle. 
The marriage was clearly after the battle, despite your wishes.

Quote

Au contraire. Jon Arryn had an heir after Denys was slain. He's called Harry the heir. There's always an heir. You just have to go further down the tree. It's quite possible that Denys remained behind to fight in the Battle of the Bells with Ned rather than leave with Jon Arryn, because Jon Arryn's main force did not join Ned and Hoster at Stoney Sept.

47 minutes ago, corbon said:

No, he isn't.
The unnamed older brother is definitely alive at this time. Ned Dayne isn't born until 287, so his "supposed" (there's no reason at all to suspect anything out of the ordinary here) father must be alive still at the start of 286. Thats 2-3 years after Ashara's death.
For all we know Edric's father didn't die until the late 90's!

You've got Edric's father's death completely screwed around and its messed with all your associated theories.

Edric was born sometime between 286 and 287 - roughly 3-4 years after the Rebellion ended, so by necessity he must have been sired around then, but text doesn't tell us his father's name nor how or when he died. It's entirely possible that Ashara begged her brother to help her fake her death. Since we lack information, my guess is as good as yours.

52 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I wholeheartedly disagree here. The text is quite clear, Ned brought Jon home with him. The quote you provided earlier about MC on the other hand doesn’t really imply that Ned was w/ Cat and Robb when they were on their way to Winterfell. IMO. 

Go ahead and disagree. That's your prerogative. I will do the same.

54 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I don’t really see a parallel w/ Sansa, but yeah, we know Ned Dayne has at least an aunt, Allyria, who was engaged to Beric. Some speculate that Allyria isn’t Ashara and Arthur’s sister, but rather Ashara’s “stillborn” baby girl. 

Allyria was pledged to Beric Dondarrion, presumably about the time Edric was sent to be his page. Was there really a need for House Dayne to pledge an infant just a few years before Ned became Hand? 

57 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

He wasn’t, he was named Edric. 

Edric is a variant of Eddard. That is how he got the nickname "Ned".

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16 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Sorry I’m calling BS.  I know you have to compress everything for it to make sense in your time frame, and if we are dealing with the HBO show, then sure whatever.  But there is no way you can get to the Battle of Ashford within one or two months after Arryn calls his banners.  

You've only got a boat trip from Gulltown to Storms End, a Robert march by mounted troops from Storms End to Summerhall and back, and another Robert march to Ashford to deal with. Throw in GRRMs poor timing skills and explicit warning not to parse these things too closely, because he didn't and it might not work perfectly, and I think it works just fine. It works thematically with all the data  we have. Nothing else I've seen does the same. 

You appear to ignore that Ned and Robert both can effectively call their banners the same time (less raven time) as Jon Arryn - before the Battle of Gulltown, that the early "Battles" appear to be relatively small and that most Lords would have a small number of mounted and trained men that could be ready to ride/fight in days, so it takes very little time (days) to assemble forces of a few hundred men and not much longer (weeks) to get that up to 1000 or more. But a lot more time (months) to get it to the 10,000s.

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3 minutes ago, corbon said:

Well, basically most people (you among them apparently) posit Ned told Robert that Jon's mother was Wylla. 

I think the possibility exists, yes. But as with so much else, we can’t affirm w/ certainty either way. 

4 minutes ago, corbon said:

I see that as being utterly inconsistent with everything we see from Ned, and stupid and unnecessary.

I don’t, and I specially don’t see it as stupid. We know Ned wasn’t into whoring, we know he was shy, honourable, quiet. So, he either turns up w/ a baby or tells Robert that he has a bastard son, and also tells Robert he had a fling w/ a woman named Wylla? So, all of a sudden, Ned is not Ned anymore, but had two flings, w/ two different women? So, Ned tells Robert, “I have a bastard son. And btw, I also had an affair w/ a random woman named Wylla”. 

Yeah, I don’t see it. It makes much more sense to keep it simple, one fling, that resulted in a baby.  

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 Hot topic.I rarely post in these kinds of threads because I see RLJ as a given.

As a casual observer though it's fascinating the many ways you all diminish actual text when it's in your favour to do so!

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7 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

Edric is a variant of Eddard.

Is it? Where is that said? Or are you saying it is just because both start w/ “Ed”?

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21 minutes ago, corbon said:

stupid and unnecessary.

Watch out. Somebody may report you.

21 minutes ago, corbon said:

He surely would have had a report form Varys about that visit.

Why would Varys send Ned a report when they were on opposing sides?

I do actually share one belief with you with regards to the timeline: I also place the Battle of Ashford 2-3 months after Jon Arryn called his banners. The timeline is very condensed. If the Battle of the Bells is roughly close to nine months prior to when Ned lifted the siege at Storms End, then the Battle at Ashford needs to be about 10-11 months prior to lifting the siege.

4 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Is it? Where is that said? Or are you saying it is just because both start w/ “Ed”?

It must be. How else to get "Ned" out of Edric? Why not shorten Edric to Ed? 

Edited by Melifeather

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@corbon, just to clarify something... I don’t think for a second that Ned volunteered anything to do w/ Jon to Robert. I don’t believe Ned just said, “yeah, I have a bastard son and his mum is called Wylla”. But more that Robert kept asking and asking, and eventually Ned followed the path of least resistance, which would be, one affair that produced a baby. 

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3 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

@corbon, just to clarify something... I don’t think for a second that Ned volunteered anything to do w/ Jon to Robert. I don’t believe Ned just said, “yeah, I have a bastard son and his mum is called Wylla”. But more that Robert kept asking and asking, and eventually Ned followed the path of least resistance, which would be, one affair that produced a baby. 

Ned just lied here.He told Robert his bastard's mother was named Wylla.

He lied because he has promised to keep.

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3 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

I guess anything is possible, but it would be nice if there was even a hint in the text to build such a connection. 

There is. Catelyn in her own mind believes Jon was conceived after Ned left her. And she thinks it possible that Ashara was the mother. That is such a connection.

3 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

Do we even know how old Robb was when Catelyn brought him to Winterfell? I think all we have to go on is after the Rebellion. That's a wide open window there to be trying to nail it down to Robb being 3 months old.

Cat tells us that Ned and her were apart for the first year of their marriage. And Robb was conceived right at the start of their marriage.

3 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

You are twisting this passage into a pretzel! Robert asked the name of the mother and Ned answered Wylla. How clear does the text need to be for you?

I've been over this dozens of times.
Its quite explicit. 
Robert asks "what was her name,(question) that common girl of yours (clarifying statement)?". Everything else is either a statement by Robert or an attempt to self-answer the same question. This includes another clarifying statement by Robert "You know the one I mean, your bastard's mother"
Ned does know who he means. He does know that Robert thinks that common girl is "his". He knows that Robert thinks the girl is Jon;s mother. But the question asked, and answered, is what was that girl, the one Robert is thinking of's, name.

Ned never said that Wylla was Jon's mum. Robert did. Ned let it stand without addressing it, which is deceptive, but not a lie. 

3 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

The timeline is debatable and the one you prefer doesn't make FFR's an "error". We are provided a very rough outline that can be slid back and forth to suit nearly any theory.

The "error was the statement that we have to conclude that Jon is a good bit older than Robb. We don't and I showed it.

3 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

Why are my explanations irrational? And why are you allowed to denigrate me without receiving warnings? 

Is this OP about the promises Ned made Lyanna or is it a discussion about Ashara? I'm going to try my best to stay on topic.

Its the Barra discussion, Lyanna's promises.
Your explanation for this is irrational. Thats a denigration, IMO an accurate representation, of the argument, not the person giving it. We can all make mistakes.
Barra's mother is pleading for Ned to take care of Barra, a bastard child. That leads directly, explicitly in the text, to Ned thinking of the promises he made Lyanna as she lay dying. We went over this a few months back, you repeatedly insisted on the interpretation that its about something else to do with wedding vows and Robert and Lyanna, I forget exactly, and repeatedly cut the part about promises to Lyanna as she lay dying which explicitly killed your interpretation from your explanation, even when this was repeatedly pointed out to you.

3 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

I had already provided the text which you are choosing to dismiss, because it doesn't fit your preferred theories.

I'm not dismissing the text, just the way you read it. Others can make their own mind up about that.

3 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

The text doesn't say that. Ned told Robert the name of Jon's mother was Wylla.

No, Ned told Robert the name of the woman Robert is thinking of is Wylla, Robert told Ned that the woman he was thinking of was Jon's mother. Its right there is black and white in the quote you provided.

3 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

He never said aloud or in his thoughts that he used her to get Jon from Starfall to Winterfell. This is an assumption.

A partial one. I allowed for a different wetnurse from Starfall to Winterfell. But Ned would have used one, or several, to get Jon from wherever he was born to WInterfell.

3 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

Yes, Jon had a wetnurse at Winterfell, but not once does anyone confirm that her name was Wylla. 

Yes, I allowed for that. I don't see any reason why Ned would change, but he could have. 

 

3 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

Edric Dayne said he and Jon were milk brothers and that Wylla was Jon's mother. This is what he was told. We don't have any other insight into what anybody else at Starfall might believe or know.

Riiight. Edric Dayne has this information in utter isolation. Despite gossiping with Allyria Dayne, none of his thoughts match what anyone in Starfall thinks. I see.
Wylla being Jon's mother means that Ashara isn't, even though Edric thinks Ashara and Ned were lovers.

3 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

Where is the evidence that Ned rode to Starfall with Jon and Wylla? Ned's fever dream has only himself and Howland riding away. 

No it does not. Ned's fever dram has only two out of  the ten ride away, it doesn't logically address any others. 

Stories out of Starfall and Robert show that Wylla is thought to be Jon;s mother. Ned cannot be shown to have said so and saying so is inconsistent with his character, actions and needs.
So where did that idea come from?

 

3 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

What is Robert's understanding? 

That Wylla is Jon's mum.

3 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

Nothing in this passage nails down the timing or location. Only that Ned forgot his honor, and even that it open to interpretation. It doesn't confirm an affair after marriage. It could refer to sex outside of marriage.

Harwin indicates that sex outside of marriage wouldn't be a dishonour. Ned indicates that his fathering Jon dishonours him and Catelyn, indicating that it happened after his marriage. Catelyn indicates that she wouldn't have mided Ned getting a bastard on camapign after they were married if only he hadn;t brought him home... the are are many many implications.

 

3 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

There is nothing in the text saying that Ashara was dismissed, because she was dishonored. On the contrary, it's more likely she became a handmaiden because she was dishonored. Maids with intact maidenheads are usually promised in marriage by 15 years of age. Harwin said Ashara wasn't yet promised at the tourney and she wouldn't have known she was pregnant until 6-8 weeks later.

Ok, I'm just gonna leave that alone for people to see and understand what they are reading.

3 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

Nothing in your preferred black and white text, but plenty of clues can be found in the symbolism, metaphors, and parallels in the titled chapters.

I'm happy with symbolism metaphors and parallels as long as they fit with the text.

3 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

Au contraire. Jon Arryn had an heir after Denys was slain. He's called Harry the heir. There's always an heir. You just have to go further down the tree. It's quite possible that Denys remained behind to fight in the Battle of the Bells with Ned rather than leave with Jon Arryn, because Jon Arryn's main force did not join Ned and Hoster at Stoney Sept.

Well, you can think that. The rest of us will stick with what the characters say and think.

3 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

Edric was born sometime between 286 and 287 - roughly 3-4 years after the Rebellion ended, so by necessity he must have been sired around then, but text doesn't tell us his father's name nor how or when he died. It's entirely possible that Ashara begged her brother to help her fake her death. Since we lack information, my guess is as good as yours.

When you guess has the purported father dead 2-3 years or more before the son is born, no, your guess is not as good as mine. Not because its yours, or mine, but because it doesn't work within the data we have.

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28 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

Watch out. Somebody may report you.

About analyzing Ned's actions? 

28 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

Why would Varys send Ned a report when they were on opposing sides?

The report is to Robert and they are not on opposite sides. Robert is King and Varys is now his Master of Whispers, probably desperately trying to keep his head on by proving his worth.
You think when Ned returned Dawn to Starfall the Master of Whispers didn't have a report on that event to King Robert?

 

19 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

@corbon, just to clarify something... I don’t think for a second that Ned volunteered anything to do w/ Jon to Robert. I don’t believe Ned just said, “yeah, I have a bastard son and his mum is called Wylla”. But more that Robert kept asking and asking, and eventually Ned followed the path of least resistance, which would be, one affair that produced a baby. 

We've already seen the path Ned takes, every time. Why posit Ned taking a different path then (but refusing now to take that same old path!) when there is a perfectly reasonable and coherent explanation that fits everything we know?

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19 minutes ago, redriver said:

Ned just lied here.He told Robert his bastard's mother was named Wylla.

He lied because he has promised to keep.

Ned allowed Robert to keep believing something false. Ned didn't actually propagate any lies.

Quote

Its quite explicit. 
Robert asks "what was her name,(question) that common girl of yours (clarifying statement)?". Everything else is either a statement by Robert or an attempt to self-answer the same question. This includes another clarifying statement by Robert "You know the one I mean, your bastard's mother"
Ned does know who he means. He does know that Robert thinks that common girl is "his". He knows that Robert thinks the girl is Jon;s mother. But the question asked, and answered, is what was that girl, the one Robert is thinking of's, name.

Ned never said that Wylla was Jon's mum. Robert did. Ned let it stand without addressing it, which is deceptive, but not a lie. 

The only thing Robert indicates Ned told him before too, was the name. 

Its possible that Ned told Robert outright that Wylla was Jon's mother way back. Its also possible he did not. Option A means Ned is inconsistent, out of character and risks an explicit lie which may be able to be proven false, since he has no control over where wylla was of who with near the time of Jon's conception. Option B is consistent with Ned's character, actions, conversations, style and needs, and fits Robert too. Its also a direct parallel (funny, why is no one else looking at parallels and repeats here!) to the conversation we saw.

I think option B is several orders of magnitude more likely than option A.

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