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The Stannis Plan and why he wrote the Pink Letter 2.0


three-eyed monkey

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3 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Fair enough, but look at the first claim. Stannis has been defeated. Is that ture?

Absolutely not. 

3 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

I ask because a lot of the theories that support Ramsay suggest that he searched Stannis camp, couldn't find Jeyne or Reek for that matter, questioned some of the prisoners, and learned they went to Castle Black. On the surface it seems plausible. Stannis was written into a hopeless position after all. But we know that these books are a lot deeper than what we see on the surface. The seeds of Stannis' victory, such as the frozen lakes, have been planted in the text. I'm certain the pink letter was not a spoiler to Stannis' death, which would presumably come in Asha I, if it was going to happen. Stannis will not lose and the whole notion of a victorious Ramsay questioning prisoners at the crofters' village about Jeyne's whereabouts or the wildling princess really needs to be thrown out.

:agree:

3 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

A variation on that is that Stannis uses a raven to mislead Roose into thinking the Bolton's have won. I agree this will happen because again the seeds have been planted in the text. But what I do not agree with is the notion that Ramsay will still be in Winterfell when that raven arrives.

It’s hard to even guess when the raven will arrive, but we know the CV is 3 day’s ride from Winterfell. But if we assume the raven w/ false intel has to arrive at the very least 3 days after the Freys and Manderlys leave, then yes, Ramsay won’t be there, unless he’s gone and came back. Unlikely, but possible. My point being, I am sure Ramsay will ride out at some point. 

Another point here is, while I think Ramsay will ride out, he didn’t leave Winterfell w/ the Freys and Manderlys. 

 

3 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

I believe Theon is right and Ramsay will come for him, Ramsay is not going to let Reek outsmart him and get away with it. He loves the hunt too much for that. So he will be at the battle and even if he escapes alive and gets back to Winterfell he will know the battle is lost.

And here we disagree. I agree that Ramsay will go looking for Reek and his bride. But that doesn’t necessarily mean he will be present during the battle. 

3 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Perhaps he could have written it then, after losing and escaping back to Winterfell, and he was simply lying about winning the battle. But if that was the case he would not have questioned prisoners about the wildling princess, as Stannis calls her, nor would he have any reason to think Jeyne is going to Castle Black. He'd just think she was still with Stannis.

Actually, Jon thinks of Val as the “wildling princess”; Shireen asks Val if she’s the “wildling princess”; Mully refers to her like that, too, as does Axell Florent. 

3 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

It really only makes sense that Ramsay wrote the letter if he won the battle.

I disagree. All that’s necessary is for Ramsay to believe he has won. And that’s exactly what I think happened. 

I also disagree re Jeyne and CB; after the CV CB is the only place that makes sense for her to go/be sent to. 

3 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Then I could get on-board with Ramsay questioning prisoners and finding out about the wildling princess, although she would still have little value to him, and Jeyne going to Castle Black, even if asking Jon for her back when Jon would know it is not Arya and have Jeyne to confirm it, seems a bit too dumb even for Ramsay.

I don’t think anything is “too dumb” for Ramsay, but I get what you’re saying. I think here Ramsay is actually being a bit clever. If he knows about Mance ( even if he doesn’t have him), he’s threatening everyone and their dogs at CB, and let’s say, for argument’s sake, that he marches on CB and Jon’s still there, and Jeyne is too. If Jon says, “she’s not Arya”, and Ramsay has a way to prove Mance is/was in Winterfell, he can name Jon a traitor, a liar, an enemy to the WotN, etc etc. 

Fact is, because everything is so vague, it’s hard to be too specific w/ predictions. I think there’s quite a few different ways for things to play out w/ Ramsay having written the letter and Stannis having won the battle. 

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14 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

On the surface it seems plausible. Stannis was written into a hopeless position after all.

The thing is he wasn t. If people think only the frey's will fight in the CV then Roose's victory plan depended entirely on the karstarks backstabing stannis. As things stand stannis is in a place wich he as been fortifying with 5K men preparing to fight less than 2K men. Without any clever plan stannis looks like the winner.

19 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

It really only makes sense that Ramsay wrote the letter if he won the battle. Then I could get on-board with Ramsay questioning prisoners and finding out about the wildling princess, although she would still have little value to him, and Jeyne going to Castle Black

Why is this hard to believe? We don t know if ramsay will join the freys in time to attack stannis, if he won t prepare some trap to deal with them before they return to winterfell and ends up using this trap on stannis (ramsay has to kill the freys to secure his position and roose seems to want to also get rid of them and after dealing with stannis they aren t usefull anymore) or if ramsay will stay in winterfell torturing people to find out where farya went and then be able to defeat stannis when he reaches winterfell.

There are several possible scenarios about what ramsay can do that are all likely. And as I have said several times, I don t see the point of stannis winning his war with the boltons. He will have less than 300 men, be disliked by the northerns and he doesn t have a stark. His conquest has no where to go… And no matter who wrote the PL we know jon isn t coming to winterfell any time soon because of the attack. So stannis situation doesn t improve.

32 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

even if asking Jon for her back when Jon would know it is not Arya and have Jeyne to confirm it, seems a bit too dumb even for Ramsay.

I have no idea why you have an issue with ramsay asking for farya back. If he interrogated stannis men he will know she is being escorted by alyssane, massey and some black brothers to CB. When se arrives there she will be anounced as arya stark and jon will know ramsay has been lying. His letter doesn t give anything away… He writes what he has to write...

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

I honestly don’t think the authorship is supposed to be a great mystery. Sure, Martin will do what he does, which is, to always leave room for speculation; as in, he won’t spell everything out as he goes. But IMO the real mysteries are the claims we see in the letter.

I think more than that people are creating very complex theories about who and why they wrote the PL. Whyle the schemes in asoiaf are pretty straightforward with few steps. They

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4 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Actually, Jon thinks of Val as the “wildling princess”; Shireen asks Val if she’s the “wildling princess”; Mully refers to her like that, too, as does Axell Florent. 

Yes but it all comes from Stannis. He is the one who needs her to be a wildling princess because he wants her to have marriage value. You listed people in Stannis entourage or on the Wall where Stannis has held sway. Ramsay and Winterfell is a different situation. why would Ramsay even value her any more than he would value any wildling sprearwife? We know Stannis values her as the mortar that seals a peace between the north and his new wildling subjects.

10 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

And here we disagree. I agree that Ramsay will go looking for Reek and his bride. But that doesn’t necessarily mean he will be present during the battle. 

Can you explain how Ramsay goes out after Jeyne and Reek, who he knows has fled to Stannis' camp, fails to get there, and then returns thinking they have won? I mean that sincerely. Lay it out and let's test it.

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3 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I think it would depend on if he is traveling alone or in a small group or with a large group but it certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility for him to travel south west towards the Iron Islands & take a boat. 

The Dreadfort is East

I dont think theon will return to the IL. He is completly destroyed phisically and looks like and old man. Besides probably being an eunuch. Going to the IL would be the same as go looking for humiliation.

3 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

No, the obvious candidate when it comes to quoting Theon is Stannis. Theon said those lines to Stannis. Ramsay was not there. It is impossible for him to be the one quoting Theon. None of the other candidates you mentioned were there.

Theon was impersonating ramsay when he said those quotes so it makes sense that ramsay actually talks like that. The first time the PL asks for farya it is used a diferent wording. And then are you really putting stock in someone saying I want my bride and I want my reek as proof of something? That is just the most comon way of expressing those feelings...

3 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

A couple reason to me. While he will need refuge & certainly will need to stop at places along the way throughout his journey due to the weather, it seems unlikely he would head north, where the weather is going to get worse as he goes, and has only one destination. The wall can't be Theon's final destination unless he plans on taking the black. Also, Ramsay knows everyone thinks Theon killed Bran & Rickon making Theon's probability of running to their brother unlikely IMO. It seems much more likely to me that Theon would go in a direction where the weather is going to be getting better, and the journey easier. Possibly to somewhere to contact his own family & return to the Iron born as a final destination. 

It makes more sense for him to go someplace where people don t recognize him so that he can recuperate and be more like his old self. Don t Forget that wherever he goes it is unlikely someone will recognize him as he is now. I think he will just go to some castle near stannis camp and say he is a victim of war (like the hound became the gravedigger).

4 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I think the thing that makes me doubt it was Ramsay is that if he did indeed defeat Stannis he should know where Theon is. Last we saw him he was in chains. So, there are a couple possibilities: Stannis killed Theon before the battle engaged in which case Ramsay may or may not have found the body but could have interrogated prisoners who could tell him Theon is dead so no reason to ask Jon for Theon, Theon some how escaped in which case, again, he may be able to get that information from interrogating prisoners but, again, would have no reason to think Theon went to the wall. Or Stannis released him, which I think is highly unlikely but the same issues remain, Ramsay could find out & has no reason to believe he would go to the wall. 

The same issue with Jeyne to an extent. Ramsay has no reason to believe she would go to the wall either but could find out from interrogating prisoners - but this would be contingent upon the prisoners knowing where she was sent (something we don't know if they do know) & telling. Granted torture would make most people talk but he can hardly torture every person & if he did it would take some time before he found one privvy to this info, if any of them are. 

I completly agree on the theon part. But it is even worse for stannis to ask jon for theon.

Personally, the best explanation I think we have at the moment is that someone told stannis how ramsay used theon to conquer moat caillin. So stannis decided to use the same tactic with the dreadfort and in secret sends theon and some men to the dreadfort. In public he tells his men that he is sending theon to the Wall to take the black or something like that. This way when ramsay interrogates stannis men he thinks theon is going to the Wall and everything makes sense.

 

In regards to jeyne. Givenf that all the events regarding her arrival were public and she is a person of interest it makes sense that several people know her destination. It isn t a secret… And even if they try to resist torture it just means that when they talk ramsay doesn t have time to reach her before she arrives in CB. And therefore sends the letter.

 

I can explain everything that happens in the letter much easier and logicaly (to me) if ramsay wrote the PL than anyone else.

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2 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

The handwriting thing points to Ramsay IMO because like you said if it looked no different there is no reason to comment on it.

Why would he not have thought about it? Would it have been entirely out of place if the words "he recognized the signature" had been inserted? Or if he observed it was written in a "huge spiky hand" would you be saying - Hey, Jon wouldn't have thought that, he'd just have recognized it because he has had a letter from Ramsay before and he would only be seeing what he expected to see. I doubt it very much.

We can go back and forth over what Jon might or might not have thought but it would be futile. It's not an argument either side can win and besides it is the wrong argument. It is GRRM who decides what goes on the page. He was the one who decided not to insert a few words in Jon's thought process. The real reason Jon did not mention the signature is down to the craft of storytelling.

Huge spiky hand is set-up twice in the same novel as the pink letter. One is from Jon's pov and one if from Asha's pov. Already there is something notable here because GRRM is very good at choosing his words to suit the pov. Northern characters think and say things like white as snow, but Ironborn say things like white as sea foam. Sansa might say red as a rose but to Arya it is blood red. A huge spiky hand to one person might be a large jagged scrawl to another, or maybe even a tiny scribble to Wun Wun. So for two characters of different background to use precisely the same phrase suggests that GRRM wants the reader to take note of Ramsay's signature. (Sometimes writers call that sticking a pin in it, two mentions is standard, three for more important points.)  So I say that is what GRRM is doing. Sticking a pin in it.

The second technique being used here is a type of literary clue that has a lot of different forms and is very common in the mystery genre, going back centuries if not more. The signature, which has been pinned, is conspicuous in its absence. It is you, the reader, the person the book is aimed at, who is meant to notice it is not there, not Jon. He's just part of the show.

 

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3 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Why would he not have thought about it? Would it have been entirely out of place if the words "he recognized the signature" had been inserted? Or if he observed it was written in a "huge spiky hand" would you be saying - Hey, Jon wouldn't have thought that, he'd just have recognized it because he has had a letter from Ramsay before and he would only be seeing what he expected to see. I doubt it very much.

Because in jon and tormund's conversation they are analising the veracity of the letter. If there was a big diference between how the letters were written it would make sense for jon to mention it. If when jon is thinking about the letter he doesn t mention anything strange about how it is written then it is much more likely that there isn t anything strange to mention about how the letter is written. This is how people think...

 

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58 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Yes but it all comes from Stannis. He is the one who needs her to be a wildling princess because he wants her to have marriage value. You listed people in Stannis entourage or on the Wall where Stannis has held sway. Ramsay and Winterfell is a different situation. why would Ramsay even value her any more than he would value any wildling sprearwife? We know Stannis values her as the mortar that seals a peace between the north and his new wildling subjects.

Nope.

ASoS, Samwell IV

“He sucks harder than mine.” Gilly stroked the babe’s head as she held him to her nipple.
“He’s hungry,” said the blonde woman Val, the one the black brothers called the wildling princess. “He’s lived on goats’ milk up to now, and potions from that blind maester.”

Quote

Can you explain how Ramsay goes out after Jeyne and Reek, who he knows has fled to Stannis' camp, fails to get there, and then returns thinking they have won? I mean that sincerely. Lay it out and let's test it.

As I’ve said before, Ramsay didn’t leave Winterfell w/ the Freys and Manderlys. How long after did he leave? No clue. And again, there are just too many variables here... Here’s one of many scenarios that I find entirely possible: 

Freys leave by the main gate, the Manderlys by the East Gate. Some time passes before Theon escapes w/ Jeyne, and Ramsay leaves some time after that. He may or may not meet/fight Umbers, then starts hunting for Jeyne and Theon before going towards the CV. He then meets men “returning victorious from the battle”, they even have Lightbringer and maybe even a corpse they claim is Stannis. Or he gets to the CV but it’s all over and he is deceived by men claiming “yadda yadda yadda”. Or any number of combinations, the point is, there are several ways it could go down that don’t involve Stannis having lost, nor for the letter to have been written by anyone other than Ramsay. IMO. 

 

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44 minutes ago, divica said:

dont think theon will return to the IL. He is completly destroyed phisically and looks like and old man. Besides probably being an eunuch. Going to the IL would be the same as go looking for humiliation

I'm not sold he would either but it's a possibility & would be a more likely possibility in Ramsay's mind than him going to the wall IMO. 

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54 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Why would he not have thought about it? Would it have been entirely out of place if the words "he recognized the signature" had been inserted? Or if he observed it was written in a "huge spiky hand" would you be saying - Hey, Jon wouldn't have thought that, he'd just have recognized it because he has had a letter from Ramsay before and he would only be seeing what he expected to see. I doubt it very much.

No it wouldn't have been out of place for him to say he recognized the signature. I do think to comment again on the huge, spiky, hand would be redundant though. I also don't think there is any need for him to say anything about the handwriting if it's either a. What he expects it to look like or b. He doesn't realize if it does or doesn't match the previous letter. 

It certainly isn't out of the norm for someone to not recognize someone's handwriting after only seeing it one time. 

To be clear, this doesn't make me think Ramsay wrote it, it just isn't the main selling point for Stannis writing it. If this were the only clue that Ramsay may not have written it, I would disregard it, because IMO it's the weakest clue. 

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43 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

e can go back and forth over what Jon might or might not have thought but it would be futile. It's not an argument either side can win and besides it is the wrong argument. It is GRRM who decides what goes on the page. He was the one who decided not to insert a few words in Jon's thought process. The real reason Jon did not mention the signature is down to the craft of storytelling.

Sorry didn't quote right the first time. I agree here. Martin did not mention anything about the writing for a reason. My stance is that reason could merely be because it looked the same as before IF that were the only indication that Ramsay wasn't the author. 

44 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Huge spiky hand is set-up twice in the same novel as the pink letter. One is from Jon's pov and one if from Asha's pov. Already there is something notable here because GRRM is very good at choosing his words to suit the pov. Northern characters think and say things like white as snow, but Ironborn say things like white as sea foam. Sansa might say red as a rose but to Arya it is blood red. A huge spiky hand to one person might be a large jagged scrawl to another, or maybe even a tiny scribble to Wun Wun. So for two characters of different background to use precisely the same phrase suggests that GRRM wants the reader to take note of Ramsay's signature. (Sometimes writers call that sticking a pin in it, two mentions is standard, three for more important points.)  So I say that is what GRRM is doing. Sticking a pin in it.

I agree 100 %. But if this were the only thing we had it could be argued that he mentioned the huge, spiky, hand to verify for the readers that Jon would recognize the handwriting. 

I don't think this is the purpose, this is just why I say it's the weakest clue. 

47 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

The second technique being used here is a type of literary clue that has a lot of different forms and is very common in the mystery genre, going back centuries if not more. The signature, which has been pinned, is conspicuous in its absence. It is you, the reader, the person the book is aimed at, who is meant to notice it is not there, not Jon. He's just part of the show

For sure. It's written for us. If Stannis didn't write this letter George has went overboard on trying to mix us up. 

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41 minutes ago, divica said:

Because in jon and tormund's conversation they are analising the veracity of the letter. If there was a big diference between how the letters were written it would make sense for jon to mention it. If when jon is thinking about the letter he doesn t mention anything strange about how it is written then it is much more likely that there isn t anything strange to mention about how the letter is written. This is how people think

Right but they aren't analyzing one letter in comparison to the other, just the contents of this letter. What you say is certainly possible - that Jon could notice the writing is different & say so. But it's also possible that Jon didn't memorize Ramsay's handwriting after seeing it one time & doesn't notice anything odd about it because he isn't analyzing the handwriting & the other letter isn't fresh in his mind. 

Also, if George didn't intend for this to be a mystery he easily could have noted that Jon recognized the signature. He didn't & much like every thing else George does, it was deliberate. 

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2 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Right but they aren't analyzing one letter in comparison to the other, just the contents of this letter. What you say is certainly possible - that Jon could notice the writing is different & say so. But it's also possible that Jon didn't memorize Ramsay's handwriting after seeing it one time & doesn't notice anything odd about it because he isn't analyzing the handwriting & the other letter isn't fresh in his mind. 

That’s why in previous letters we get the “huge, spiky hand”. The letters Jon and Asha receive have quite a distinctive hand, and to bring it up again would be repetitive IMO. Jon sees exactly what he expects to see, there’s no reason for him to think, “oh same huge spiky hand”, and even less reason to explain to Tormund that the letter has the same handwriting style as the one he got from Ramsay before. My 2p worth. :)

 

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3 hours ago, divica said:

Because in jon and tormund's conversation they are analising the veracity of the letter. If there was a big diference between how the letters were written it would make sense for jon to mention it. If when jon is thinking about the letter he doesn t mention anything strange about how it is written then it is much more likely that there isn t anything strange to mention about how the letter is written. This is how people think...

It's just as likely he would mention it to confirm it if the signature was there, given they are analyzing the letter's veracity.

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59 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

That’s why in previous letters we get the “huge, spiky hand”. The letters Jon and Asha receive have quite a distinctive hand, and to bring it up again would be repetitive IMO. Jon sees exactly what he expects to see, there’s no reason for him to think, “oh same huge spiky hand”, and even less reason to explain to Tormund that the letter has the same handwriting style as the one he got from Ramsay before. My 2p worth. :)

 

I agree this is logical. I don't think it would be out of the norm for Jon to have reflected that he recognized the hand or signature or something of that nature but I also don't think it's necessary if Ramsay did write the letter. 

It's coupled with everything else that makes me buy into 3EM's theory. 

To be fair though, I haven't watched all of Ran's video yet either. I plan on watching it tonight so I'll let you know if I change my mind :)

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4 hours ago, divica said:

Personally, the best explanation I think we have at the moment is that someone told stannis how ramsay used theon to conquer moat caillin. So stannis decided to use the same tactic with the dreadfort and in secret sends theon and some men to the dreadfort. In public he tells his men that he is sending theon to the Wall to take the black or something like that. This way when ramsay interrogates stannis men he thinks theon is going to the Wall and everything makes sense

I suppose it could happen but I don't think Theon in present form could be convinced to go to the Dreadfort. He would let them kill him first. 

4 hours ago, divica said:

regards to jeyne. Givenf that all the events regarding her arrival were public and she is a person of interest it makes sense that several people know her destination. It isn t a secret… And even if they try to resist torture it just means that when they talk ramsay doesn t have time to reach her before she arrives in CB. And therefore sends the letter

Sure she arrives fairly publicly but there is no reason for Stannis to tell a bunch of people where he is sending her. He could've used the same ploy you suggested he use with Theon & tell people he was sending her some where else. He knows she will be hunted, he knows he has a chance to lose the battle, he knows she isn't safe, so I would be very surprised if he allowed alot of people to know where she is going. 

Also, if Rams believes they are both at CB why would he write a letter announcing that he plans to attack? Wouldn't it be best for him, since he knows that's where they are, to go there with an army? Take them by surprise & give his demands? Then if they don't accept them he can attack. Rather than giving them a bunch of time to fortify the castle &/or get Theon & Jeyne to safety? 

4 hours ago, divica said:

can explain everything that happens in the letter much easier and logicaly (to me) if ramsay wrote the PL than anyone else

I suppose that's what it boils down to essentially - what seems more logical, & on that we disagree. 

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3 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Nope.

ASoS, Samwell IV

“He sucks harder than mine.” Gilly stroked the babe’s head as she held him to her nipple.
“He’s hungry,” said the blonde woman Val, the one the black brothers called the wildling princess. “He’s lived on goats’ milk up to now, and potions from that blind maester.”

If you read my post again you'll see that's what I said. The term wildling princess comes from Stannis. The black brothers would have just thought of her as a wildling until Stannis showed up and started calling her a princess. Stannis' men and those at the Wall use the term. I doubt anyone in winterfell thinks of her like that.

Jon told Stannis several times that Val is no princess, even the wildlings do not consider her a princess, but Stannis doesn't want to hear it because he wants her to have marital value. He wants to bind peace between the wildlings and the north by marrying her to his Lord of Winterfell. The term princess is to appease the north, who think in such terms, not the wildlings who don't.

3 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Freys leave by the main gate, the Manderlys by the East Gate. Some time passes before Theon escapes w/ Jeyne, and Ramsay leaves some time after that.

Let's be clear on the timeline. Some things we know for sure.

Freys and Manderlys were preparing to march, using different gates as you said. The rescue had to go ahead immediately because they had to get Arya to Stannis before the Freys got there.

Jeyne and Theon jumped. Winterfell gates opened and the Freys rode out into Crowfood's pit, killing Aenys Frey and Hosteen's horse. Crowfood questions Jeyne and then sends them on their way to Stannis with Tycho and company.

They arrive in Stannis' camp. Theon says the Freys and Manderlys will come seperately and Ramsay will come too. He want's his bride. He wants his Reek. And the few green boys Crowfood has will not hold them long.

So the Freys' first foray ended abruptly and the delay gave Theon and Jeyne a chance to get clear. The question is what happened next?

4 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

He may or may not meet/fight Umbers, then starts hunting for Jeyne and Theon before going towards the CV. He then meets men “returning victorious from the battle”, they even have Lightbringer and maybe even a corpse they claim is Stannis. Or he gets to the CV but it’s all over and he is deceived by men claiming “yadda yadda yadda”. Or any number of combinations, the point is, there are several ways it could go down that don’t involve Stannis having lost, nor for the letter to have been written by anyone other than Ramsay. IMO. 

I think Ramsay would be very eager to get after Reek in particular. Hosteen would be angry about his horse, and possibly Aenys. They would know they had to deal with Crowfood's boys first and then proceed to Stannis' location. I really don't see a situation where Ramsay lags behind so far that he misses the battle.

But let's just say he did, and he meets these victorious men returning from the battle without ever questioning who they are because they have Lightbringer, he doesn't care about Lightbringer, he wants Reek and Jeyne, and unless these men have both of the escapees then I think he would continue to Stannis camp. There he would have to be deceived once again by Stannis' men pretending to be Freys or whoever once more. And we got to wonder, why don't any of these guys just kill Ramsay or take him hostage?

You say there are several ways it could go down, but let's be honest here, this is not one of them.

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3 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

He doesn't realize if it does or doesn't match the previous letter. 

It certainly isn't out of the norm for someone to not recognize someone's handwriting after only seeing it one time. 

This is what I think happened in terms of in-world explanations. Huge spiky hand is for the reader, not Jon or Asha.

3 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

To be clear, this doesn't make me think Ramsay wrote it, it just isn't the main selling point for Stannis writing it. If this were the only clue that Ramsay may not have written it, I would disregard it, because IMO it's the weakest clue. 

It's not a strong clue now, I agree, but when it is confirmed everyone will agree it was a big clue. Just wait and see. ;)

33 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

It's coupled with everything else that makes me buy into 3EM's theory.

Indeed, it is the weight of evidence compared to nothing but a signature for the Ramsay side.

Everything on the Ramsay theory is well, he could have taken prisoners and found out about the wildling princess, he could be trying to scare Jon into keeping quiet about Jeyne, he could be trying to brand Jon a liar, he could have lost a battle to Stannis but thought he won, Theon knew him so well he predicted what he would write in the letter, I mean it was signed Ramsay Bolton, it must be him because GRRM plays it straight, even if that means spoiling a major character death before we get to see it.

41 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

To be fair though, I haven't watched all of Ran's video yet either. I plan on watching it tonight so I'll let you know if I change my mind

I love their content, longtime subscriber, but I feel I need to take a leaf from Jon's book here and stick to what I believe is right. But I am fully aware that honor has its cost, as Lord Eddard learned to his sorrow.:(

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5 hours ago, divica said:

Theon was impersonating ramsay when he said those quotes so it makes sense that ramsay actually talks like that. The first time the PL asks for farya it is used a diferent wording. And then are you really putting stock in someone saying I want my bride and I want my reek as proof of something? That is just the most comon way of expressing those feelings...

And it was a damn fine impression. I was with you there until you said it is just the common way of expressing those feelings, which means it wasn't an impression of Ramsay, it was just what anyone would say. Once again you have contradicted your own point.

6 hours ago, divica said:

As things stand stannis is in a place wich he as been fortifying with 5K men preparing to fight less than 2K men.

Fortifying, freezing, you say tomato, I say tomato.

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6 hours ago, divica said:

The thing is he wasn t. If people think only the frey's will fight in the CV then Roose's victory plan depended entirely on the karstarks backstabing stannis. As things stand stannis is in a place wich he as been fortifying with 5K men preparing to fight less than 2K men. Without any clever plan stannis looks like the winner.

So you're saying the big twist is that Ramsay wins and GRRM spoiled it in the pink letter.

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23 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

And it was a damn fine impression. I was with you there until you said it is just the common way of expressing those feelings, which means it wasn't an impression of Ramsay, it was just what anyone would say. Once again you have contradicted your own point.

No. It was an easy impersonation. Because ramsay and most people in westeros would say "I want my bride and I want my reek". There is nothing special in this expression...

10 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

So you're saying the big twist is that Ramsay wins and GRRM spoiled it in the pink letter.

yes. I am saying ramsay wins. However it doesn t mean everything in the letter is true. I have no idea if stannis wasn t able to escape and someone used his sword to impersonate him. If mance was really captured. What is going on with theon...

The truth is even if ramsay won it isn t spoiled because after 9 years people still aren t sure what is true about the letter. Until the moment you read it you wont be certain so you aren t spoiled...

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