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three-eyed monkey

The Stannis Plan and why he wrote the Pink Letter 2.0

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10 hours ago, divica said:

Everything on the stannis theory is well, he would ask jon for reek despite either jon not knowing who reek is

That is the case regardless of who wrote the letter so it doesn't exclude Stannis at all.

10 hours ago, divica said:

Stannis doesn t care if his familly is put in danger and sent to essos with few guards because his familly was already in danger.

Stannis will devine that jon would ride alone to winterfell for some reason.

Stannis will win 2 major battles and in the meantime become a master manipulator that makes his ally break his vows for false reasons.

Correct. The situation with his family is why he addressed the part about the sword to Mel, but even if she doesn't pick up on it the situation is not irretrievable. Jon said he would go to Winterfell alone if he must and as I said, I believe him, because such decisions come from character and circumstance (GRRM's words) and I would expect Jon's character would respond to the circumstances in such a way. Stannis saw enough of Jon to judge his character. Believe it or not, Stannis is already very manipulative, and burning Rattleshirt proves it.

10 hours ago, divica said:

With few soldiers stannis will be important enough that the northman would respect his decision when he releases jon from his vows.

If stannis had military superiority then Jon would not be as important to him, but he does not. That is the point. The northmen in Winterfell will lose a lot of men in the battle too. I think Stannis and the northmen will be in a deadlock of sorts after defeating Roose, and Stannis sees Jon as a means to break this in his favor.

10 hours ago, divica said:

Everybody will be waiting 1 month for jon to get to winterfell.

Again, Jeyne to Castle Black takes 18 days yet Jon to Winterfell takes a month. This is a great example of stretching the facts to suit your theory. Because if Jeyne took a month to get to Castle Black then Ramsay would definitely have chased her all the way and that doesn't suit you, yet when it is the other way around you want to push it as far as you can in the other direction.

10 hours ago, divica said:

Somehow stannis got the impression that jon will chose to break his vows instead of dying honorably.

No, he got the impression that Jon would want to deal with the so-called trueborn Lord of Winterfell now that Stannis wasn't going to do it for him.

10 hours ago, divica said:

Somehown jon riding to winterfel as the LC of the NW responding to a threat made against the NW would mean he is deserting.

Yes, the Lord Commander riding against the Lord of Winterfell, who claims to have proof of crimes the Lord Commander allegedly committed, is oathbreaking. That's why Jon will not ask his brothers to do the same. The Watch take no part.

10 hours ago, divica said:

Wich ally has stannis lied to  and manipulated in order to achieve his goals? 

Jon, when he burned Rattleshirt instead of Mance.

4 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

For Stannis writing the Pink Letter to get Jon to become Warden of the North ....... what happens to a conversation between Wyman and Stannis after Stannis takes Winterfell?

Stannis would not share his plan with Wyman. I think Stannis will look for fealty from the lords after Roose has been removed. Stannis will have little military strength. The northmen will not swear fealty to Stannis because they would rather go with a Stark, as per Robb's will. Stannis will think the only way he can get them on board is if he gives them a Stark. That's what he has been planning to do since he got news of the Red Wedding in ASoS. The wolves have no heir and the kraken have too many, the lions will devour them unlesss...

3 hours ago, Mithras said:

This is coming from someone who argued that Stannis wrote the Pink Letter for a very long time.

Sorry to hear that.

I enjoyed reading what you laid out. But as I read it I was unclear whose pov most of what you said is coming from.

I would say this in response to what you said about Asha I and the Battle of Ice having come before the Pink Letter. I agree that it was meant to be in ADwD before Jon XIII. But I propose that Stannis will simply win that battle, using the lakes, etc., and we would have ended with him marching on Winterfell. Then the pink letter would tell us that Stannis is dead and defeated in seven days of battle and his head is on the wall. We would assume this battle was fought at Winterfell and Stannis lost and then Ramsay wrote the letter, well some readers would anyway.

I really believe both the victory at the village and the taking of Winterfell using the Karstarks have been set up in the text, clues planted, foreshadowing, etc. I'm going to stick with that as there are no problems with pov at either battle or in Winterfell afterwards.

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28 minutes ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Who else then? Because someone must have written this "stupid" letter.

It's actually a very clever letter that is really only stupid if it comes from Ramsay. You even explain why it is so yourself.

4 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

I just put myself in Ramsay's mind. Or in Roose's mind, if you want. fArya must return, best if Jon doesn't even have the opportunity to have a closer look at her. If the word about fArya's real identity is spread in the North, the Boltons are in real big trouble.

fArya must return, you are correct, and the way to do that is hunt her down and catch her before she can get to any potential enemies that will know she is not Arya. Writing to Jon with the assumption that she is with him and demanding her return is stupid considering that they know she is fake and they know Jon will see that. They can't brand him a liar, because Jeyne is with him and able to collaborate the story unless they want to say Lady Arya bumped her head and thinks she is someone else.

 

Edited by three-eyed monkey

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5 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

It's actually a very clever letter that is really only stupid if it comes from Ramsay. You even explain why it is so yourself.

I do not call the letter stupid, I just quoted another member who did so.

fArya must return, you are correct, and the way to do that is hunt her down and catch her before she can get to any potential enemies that will know she is not Arya. Writing to Jon with the assumption that she is with him and demanding her return is stupid considering that they know she is fake and they know Jon will see that. They can't brand him a liar, because Jeyne is with him and able to collaborate the story unless they want to say Lady Arya bumped her head and thinks she is someone else.

If Ramsay cannot hope to catch Jeyne before she arrives at CB, then this letter is the best option for him. He can hope for a strong, reaction by Jon and/or the NW, maybe leading to circumstances where Jon would not be able to meet Jeyne and recognize her. Like a mutiny in CB or something like that.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Greywater-Watch said:

If Ramsay cannot hope to catch Jeyne before she arrives at CB, then this letter is the best option for him. He can hope for a strong, reaction by Jon and/or the NW, maybe leading to circumstances where Jon would not be able to meet Jeyne and recognize her. Like a mutiny in CB or something like that.

If you want to kill Jon you send knives not a letter, just like Cersei was planning. If you want the Watch to mutiny, you send the letter to potential mutineers, you do not send it to Jon and hope that his reaction gets him killed. If you want Jon not to meet fArya then you write to second in command and ask for the commander to be arrested and that letter would come from Roose, appended by the northern lords.

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3 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

If you want to kill Jon you send knives not a letter, just like Cersei was planning. If you want the Watch to mutiny, you send the letter to potential mutineers, you do not send it to Jon and hope that his reaction gets him killed. If you want Jon not to meet fArya then you write to second in command and ask for the commander to be arrested and that letter would come from Roose, appended by the northern lords.

You may be right, but:

1) For sending knives is too late (only a raven can arrive at CB before Jeyne does).

2) Neither Roose nor Ramsay - as far as we know - have a good knowledge of what is going on at CB. Except for what Mance or the Spearwives may have told when nicely asked. But provoking Jon is something, they can do; they know he is LC, they know he will have an emotional conflict, they can assume he doesn't like it to be called a bastard.

 

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9 minutes ago, Greywater-Watch said:

1) For sending knives is too late (only a raven can arrive at CB before Jeyne does).

That depends on how much of a lead she has, how fast she can ride with broken ribs, and how long the journey is. And the Boltons could send ravens to other strongholds further north. They had agents scouring the north for Bran and Rickon, why not Arya?

16 minutes ago, Greywater-Watch said:

2) Neither Roose nor Ramsay - as far as we know - have a good knowledge of what is going on at CB. Except for what Mance or the Spearwives may have told when nicely asked. But provoking Jon is something, they can do; they know he is LC, they know he will have an emotional conflict, they can assume he doesn't like it to be called a bastard. 

If the Bolton's don't have good knowledge of what is going on at the Wall, and I agree with you on that, then sending a letter in the hope that Jon's reaction will lead to his death seems a real long shot. Why not have Roose write to the Lord Steward in his capacity as Warden of the North, in a letter that is appended by the northern lords just as we have seen in the past, and demand Jon's immediate arrest and containment  in an ice cell until they get there to make him answer for crimes they have proof of? Ramsay has to ignore a host of better ideas and go for the long shot, when it is critical that fArya's identity remains a secret.

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3 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

That depends on how much of a lead she has, how fast she can ride with broken ribs, and how long the journey is. And the Boltons could send ravens to other strongholds further north. They had agents scouring the north for Bran and Rickon, why not Arya?

Find riders led by a knight (Massey) in this Blizzard?

If the Bolton's don't have good knowledge of what is going on at the Wall, and I agree with you on that, then sending a letter in the hope that Jon's reaction will lead to his death seems a real long shot. Why not have Roose write to the Lord Steward in his capacity as Warden of the North, in a letter that is appended by the northern lords just as we have seen in the past, and demand Jon's immediate arrest and containment  in an ice cell until they get there to make him answer for crimes they have proof of?

Why the Lord Stewart? And you think just because a letter arrives, the NW would arrest their own LC? As the NW does not interfere with the realm, so does the realm not interfere with the NW, even Stannis respected that. And what crimes the Boltons would have proof of? And I do not think that Manderley and Umber would sign that letter.

Ramsay has to ignore a host of better ideas and go for the long shot, when it is critical that fArya's identity remains a secret.

 

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6 minutes ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Find riders led by a knight (Massey) in this Blizzard?

Massey is not the problem, the pace of the group will be dictated by Jeyne who has broken ribs. It's not easy to ride with broken ribs, not at pace at least.

8 minutes ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Why the Lord Stewart? And you think just because a letter arrives, the NW would arrest their own LC? As the NW does not interfere with the realm, so does the realm not interfere with the NW, even Stannis respected that. And what crimes the Boltons would have proof of? And I do not think that Manderley and Umber would sign that letter.

They have Mance in a cage right? They are accusing Jon of keeping Mance alive and burning someone else and then sending Mance to steal Arya.

I think the lords would sign if their liege lord demands it or else they would have no choice but face the consequences. Manderly might not because he seems content to die anyway, but the rest would sign or refuse and end up in conflict with Roose.

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1 minute ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Massey is not the problem, the pace of the group will be dictated by Jeyne who has broken ribs. It's not easy to ride with broken ribs, not at pace at least.

They have Mance in a cage right? They are accusing Jon of keeping Mance alive and burning someone else and then sending Mance to steal Arya.

I think the lords would sign if their liege lord demands it or else they would have no choice but face the consequences. Manderly might not because he seems content to die anyway, but the rest would sign or refuse and end up in conflict with Roose.

So, what exactly would the crime be? Mance is under the NW jurisdiction, the LC can do as he likes with Mance.

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Just now, Greywater-Watch said:

So, what exactly would the crime be? Mance is under the NW jurisdiction, the LC can do as he likes with Mance.

Mance's life is forfeit by the laws of the seven kingdoms and the Warden of the North is the one who enforces those laws. Sending an oathbreaker you secretly saved from execution to steal the Lord of Winterfell's wife is a crime, and a serious one. And that's the allegation. Mance in a cage is the proof.

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5 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

No, it doesn’t. The quote I provided from ASoS Samwell II is the very first time “wildling princess” appears, and Sam very clearly says it’s the black brothers who call her that. 

And more, the second time it appears, it’s Stannis who says it, and he says, “this wildling princess”, and not “the wildling princess”. To me it reads like, “this so-called wildling princess”, indicating IMO that he’s the one who picked up on how the crows were referring to Val, and has adopted it, in no small part because it suits him.

You are correct, my lady.

But I think when amended my point still stands. Stannis and the black brothers call her wildling princess. Mance and the wildlings do not. No one we know of in Winterfell does. She has value to Stannis, but none to Ramsay. I still think this is a big clue to the author of the letter being Stannis.

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5 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

So, what exactly would the crime be? Mance is under the NW jurisdiction, the LC can do as he likes with Mance.

The king has take him under his jurisdiction.

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5 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

You are correct, my lady.

But I think when amended my point still stands. Stannis and the black brothers call her wildling princess. Mance and the wildlings do not. No one we know of in Winterfell does. She has value to Stannis, but none to Ramsay. I still think this is a big clue to the author of the letter being Stannis.

I get what you’re saying, and I agree - to a degree... For instance, I agree that Ramsay wouldn’t know to call Val “wildling princess”. Actually, he wouldn’t even know of her at all. And yes, Stannis knows of her, knows her, and knows people call her that at CB. All that said, Mance is in Winterfell w/ the 6 spearwives. And as much as it pains me to say this, I do think at least one person has been captured. And that’s a very easy way for Ramsay to learn about Val, her nickname, and more. :crying:

 

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On 12/7/2019 at 12:36 PM, three-eyed monkey said:

Our false king has a prickly manner," Melisandre told Jon Snow, "but he will not betray you. We hold his son, remember. And he owes you his very life."

 

On 12/7/2019 at 12:36 PM, three-eyed monkey said:

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

Sorry if you already mentioned this but I just noticed it. More language that is related to Stannis & Co. 

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20 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

 

Sorry if you already mentioned this but I just noticed it. More language that is related to Stannis & Co. 

Maybe Cersei wrote the PL! :P

AFfC, Cersei VI

“Cersei itched to slap his solemn, pious face. I could help you fast, she thought. I could shut you up in some tower and see that no one brings you food until the gods have spoken.These false kings espouse false gods,” she reminded him. “Only King Tommen defends the Holy Faith.”

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hi, i'm reading through the thread catching up ... and i just thought of this (not sidelining the topic, but this could be supporting 'evidence') and did anyone put any thought cycles into:

how would Roose or Ramsay even know who Mance was? 

why would anyone really even think that the Mance would be at Winterfell?
who in the castle could even know who Mance is? 

it is my conjecture that no one knew Mance's face ... it's not like 'wanted' posters were strung up along the forests for all to see. 
true it could be that Squirrel and the rest of the women were 'sharply' questioned or skinned for the truth, but i think not - it is my opinion they all would die first before admitting any truths of who they really were or their 'mission'.

to me this totally adds more 'proof' to the letter being of Stannis's plan.

btw 3EM - great analysis of the letter - occam's razor like logic going on.

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10 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Maybe Cersei wrote the PL! :P

AFfC, Cersei VI

“Cersei itched to slap his solemn, pious face. I could help you fast, she thought. I could shut you up in some tower and see that no one brings you food until the gods have spoken.These false kings espouse false gods,” she reminded him. “Only King Tommen defends the Holy Faith.”

Haha maybe? 

I know it's not a phrase particular to Mel or Stan but I'm gonna do a search in a bit & see how widely used it is. 

Wyman uses it once also. 

Other than that just Stan & Mel. So could definitely be nothing but is interesting 

Edited by Lyanna<3Rhaegar

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