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Theory - Lyanna got pregnant in Harrenhal?


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I'm not saying that Jon was born months earlier and I'm not going to theorize about who is the first born child, it just may have been a miscarriage.
This theory wants to understand what Rhaegar and Lyanna thought when they fled in that hasty, silly way.

Maybe she was already pregnant since Harrenhal or another meeting. At that time, they were all in the Riverlands to organize Brandon's wedding. 
This would "justify" their characters, it would explain why they were so reckless and did not bother to warn anyone.
Maybe if Brandon had known (he had a bad temper), he would have forced Lyanna to abort, because Robert was his friend. Let's remember that he was already angry at the Harrenhal Tourney.
They ran away together when Lyanna's brother Brandon was getting married. Couldn't they wait just another day?
They couldn't choose a worse time to escape, yet they're not described as two fools.
My impression is that they were both worried and that would also justify the help of the King's Guard.

In addition, theorizing at the highest level, if Aerys knew that Lyanna was expecting a child from his heir, I think he would have been very annoyed by the wolves trying to abort a dragon.
Rhaegar may have warned Elia, too.
However, when Brandon arrives at the Red Keep without asking for explanations and threatens Rhaegar, the King was not interested in giving explanations, he just wanted to kill them. 
From here no one can stop the rebellion.
Perhaps the fact that Aerys wanted to kill all of Lyanna's older brothers is because he thought of putting Lyanna and Rhaegar's baby at Winterfell. You know, the Mad King was mad.

(https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/4ni9wv/spoilers_everything_a_timeline_project_roberts/)
I start from this timeline that is reliable in my opinion, in which Harrenhal tourney is held in november and Lyanna is kidnapped at the beginning of january. So the hasty escape could be the result of a night of passion. 

Also, since Lyanna disappeared at the beginning of the year, it seems strange to me that she only got pregnant at the end. 
I don't know how they spent their time in that tower, maybe they composed songs and played hide-and-seek with the knights. 
Instead, another pregnancy would explain why Jon arrived much later and also why Lyanna was unable to leave the Tower as soon as she found out about Brandon's death.

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47 minutes ago, She knows nothing said:

I'm not saying that Jon was born months earlier and I'm not going to theorize about who is the first born child, it just may have been a miscarriage.
This theory wants to understand what Rhaegar and Lyanna thought when they fled in that hasty, silly way.

That was months and months after Harrenhal - GRRM used to say about a year, though it seem to have squeezed down a bit less than that now.

47 minutes ago, She knows nothing said:

Maybe she was already pregnant since Harrenhal or another meeting. At that time, they were all in the Riverlands to organize Brandon's wedding. 
This would "justify" their characters,

There are plenty of existing justifications.

47 minutes ago, She knows nothing said:

it would explain why they were so reckless and did not bother to warn anyone.

Who said they didn't warn anyone?

Brandon clearly found out something, somehow. Rickard doesn't seem to have any surprised or angry response - maybe he knew something more.

47 minutes ago, She knows nothing said:


Maybe if Brandon had known (he had a bad temper), he would have forced Lyanna to abort, because Robert was his friend. Let's remember that he was already angry at the Harrenhal Tourney.

Robert was Ned's friend, not Brandon's.

47 minutes ago, She knows nothing said:


They ran away together when Lyanna's brother Brandon was getting married. Couldn't they wait just another day?

It wasn't the day of the wedding, it was in the time leading up to it.

47 minutes ago, She knows nothing said:


They couldn't choose a worse time to escape, yet they're not described as two fools.

Indeed. Yet so many people rush to judgement, despite knowing almost nothing, and proclaim them reckless idiots. 

47 minutes ago, She knows nothing said:

My impression is that they were both worried and that would also justify the help of the King's Guard.

How so? Its not the KsG job to protect Lyanna. But two of them were assigned to Rhaegar, and later another sent to find him and get him back to KL.

47 minutes ago, She knows nothing said:

In addition, theorizing at the highest level, if Aerys knew that Lyanna was expecting a child from his heir, I think he would have been very annoyed by the wolves trying to abort a dragon.
Rhaegar may have warned Elia, too.
However, when Brandon arrives at the Red Keep without asking for explanations and threatens Rhaegar, the King was not interested in giving explanations, he just wanted to kill them. 

Mad King gonna mad. Brandon was the only truly idiotic one here.

47 minutes ago, She knows nothing said:

From here no one can stop the rebellion.
Perhaps the fact that Aerys wanted to kill all of Lyanna's older brothers is because he thought of putting Lyanna and Rhaegar's baby at Winterfell. You know, the Mad King was mad.

(https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/4ni9wv/spoilers_everything_a_timeline_project_roberts/)
I start from this timeline that is reliable in my opinion, in which Harrenhal tourney is held in november and Lyanna is kidnapped at the beginning of january. So the hasty escape could be the result of a night of passion. 

Lyanna is not kidnapped at the beginning of January. Rhaegar went on a long journey at the start of January, which ultimately ended with him in the Riverlands supposedly abducting Lyanna. That could have been months later - the crowding indicates a multi-stop trip going to a variety of place and only ending in the Riverlands after quite a lot of travel.

47 minutes ago, She knows nothing said:

Also, since Lyanna disappeared at the beginning of the year, it seems strange to me that she only got pregnant at the end. 

Well, your explanation is above. She didn't get pregnant at the beginning of the year. 

47 minutes ago, She knows nothing said:


I don't know how they spent their time in that tower, maybe they composed songs and played hide-and-seek with the knights. 
Instead, another pregnancy would explain why Jon arrived much later and also why Lyanna was unable to leave the Tower as soon as she found out about Brandon's death.

There's not enough time for another pregnancy. The entire war only lasted about a year.

There's no reason to assume R+L spent the entire time they were in hiding at the ToJ - perhaps they did, perhaps they didn't.

 

I think they 'disappeared' when they left because they expected that all sides would be upset with them - Aerys and Rickard both. That would give Aerys and Rickard something to come together over, to agree on. And they need to remain in hiding because they need a significant amount of time before they 'come out together' in order for them being a pair to be acceptable.

The main problem is that being in hiding in remote and inaccessible locations means they only get news of events much too late to respond - when they hear things weeks or more after events, and have further weeks of travel to get back to a situation where they can influence events, things have often moved on two to three levels before they can possibly do anything about it.

I think Brandon's irrational and self-defeating response threw an enormous spanner in the works - you can't plan for that level of gross stupidity. And things spiraled way out of control, way too fast, probably before they even heard about them. 

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12 hours ago, corbon said:

Lyanna is not kidnapped at the beginning of January. Rhaegar went on a long journey at the start of January, which ultimately ended with him in the Riverlands supposedly abducting Lyanna. That could have been months later - the crowding indicates a multi-stop trip going to a variety of place and only ending in the Riverlands after quite a lot of travel. 

Lyanna disappeared "with the beginning of the new year" cit. It means she disappeared in January, if not the first days of the month, anyway soon.
Rhaegar was in Dragonstone and Dragonstone is very close to the Riverlands.

I'm uncertain about this theory, but I'm convinced the timeline is right.

About Harrenhal ...

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As warm winds blew from the south, lords and knights from throughout the Seven Kingdoms made their way toward Harrenhal.

 
 
 
 
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At the tourney's opening ceremonies, King Aerys made a great public show of Ser Jaime Lannister's investiture as a Sworn Brother of his Kingsguard. The young knight said his vows before the royal pavilion, kneeling on the green grass in his white armor as half the lords of the realm looked on.

So according to this quote, there ware warm winds when the Seven Kingdoms knights set out on their way to the tourney. So the tourney was held IN the False Spring of 281, which precisely brought warm wind to Westeros.

When was the False Spring?

 
 
 
 
Quote

The False Spring of 281 AC lasted less than two turns. As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance. On the last day of the year, snow began to fall upon King's Landing.

False Spring lasted less than two turns = less than two months.

Winter returns only the last day of the year with a vengeance (the snow), so the False Spring was from November to December. So Harrenhal's tourney was in November.
I know some pregnant women can hide their belly for four, five months.

As I said, I'm not convinced of this theory because of Lyanna's personality, but the timeline does not deny this possibility.
 

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16 hours ago, corbon said:

I think Brandon's irrational and self-defeating response threw an enormous spanner in the works - you can't plan for that level of gross stupidity. And things spiraled way out of control, way too fast, probably before they even heard about them. 

Because clearly you hear about your baby sister being  kidnapped and  you must be level headed and  you're an idiot etc etc.

Poor  Brandon, he loved his sister too much to act calmly, poor  Brandon he didn't know about any plans, if there was one, which wouldn't end up well anyway those two may have.

If you don't want people to act stupidely, don't kidnapp their sisters, because otherwise you get exactly that response, their action was even more stupid and  self defeating than anything Brandon may ever do, Brandon was blind by rage, what excuse they had??  What they expected the reaction to "Rhaegar haa kidnapped Lyanna" would be??

Btw, we know nothing on Rickard stance on that, when he's calles his son and heir is about to die for treason and  we only know that he offered himself to fight for Brandon, nothing else.

 

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Btw, is practically impossible Lyanna was pregnant at Harrenhall.

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3 hours ago, Marysa Blackfyre said:

Lyanna disappeared "with the beginning of the new year" cit. It means she disappeared in January, if not the first days of the month, anyway soon.
Rhaegar was in Dragonstone and Dragonstone is very close to the Riverlands.

I'm uncertain about this theory, but I'm convinced the timeline is right.

Quote

With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands.

At the start of January Rhaegar began a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the Riverlands. Where Lyanna was supposedly abducted. She is not abducted at the start of his journey, but at the end. 
The phrase "ultimately lead him back to the riverlands" indicates that the journey was a long and indirect one. It could be months, could have gone to Dorne and the Westlands first, could even have been to the Riverlands and away multiple times. We just don't know where he went and how long it took. All we know is that it was long and indirect, and at the end of it, he was in teh Riverlands where he supposedly abducted Lyanna.

3 hours ago, Marysa Blackfyre said:

About Harrenhal ...

So according to this quote, there ware warm winds when the Seven Kingdoms knights set out on their way to the tourney. So the tourney was held IN the False Spring of 281, which precisely brought warm wind to Westeros.

When was the False Spring?

False Spring lasted less than two turns = less than two months.

Winter returns only the last day of the year with a vengeance (the snow), so the False Spring was from November to December. So Harrenhal's tourney was in November.
I know some pregnant women can hide their belly for four, five months.

As I said, I'm not convinced of this theory because of Lyanna's personality, but the timeline does not deny this possibility.
 

There are other issues with this timing for the tourney, to do with Elia's presence, her difficult pregnancy, when Aegon was born and conceived, when Elia was captured by the Kingswood brotherhood and more. Suffice it to say that we cannot be confidant of the timing because there is conflicting information.

But even in your own timing you've missed that the cold winds hammered KL for a month.

16 minutes ago, frenin said:

Because clearly you hear about your baby sister being  kidnapped and  you must be level headed and  you're an idiot etc etc.

Poor  Brandon, he loved his sister too much to act calmly, poor  Brandon he didn't know about any plans, if there was one, which wouldn't end up well anyway those two may have.

If you don't want people to act stupidely, don't kidnapp their sisters, because otherwise you get exactly that response, their action was even more stupid and  self defeating than anything Brandon may ever do, Brandon was blind by rage, what excuse they had??  What they expected the reaction to "Rhaegar haa kidnapped Lyanna" would be??

Anger is not unexpected. And Brandon is the wild wolf.
But riding into the keep of the Mad King calling for his heir to "come out and die" is a special kinda stupid. There's just no possibility of any positive outcome. None. Zero. Nil.
And its not like Brandon did it on the spur of the moment - it must have taken days for he and his friends to have gotten to the Red Keep after they learned whatever they learned.

Trying some mad plan to steal her back, and getting killed (or killing Rhaegar) doing it - now thats the sort of response I could respect, and to some extent expect as a possiblility.
Hence not telling anyone where they were, I suspect.

16 minutes ago, frenin said:

Btw, we know nothing on Rickard stance on that, when he's calles his son and heir is about to die for treason and  we only know that he offered himself to fight for Brandon, nothing else.

Exactly. Lyanna is never even mentioned, that we know of - not even by Brandon, let alone Rickard. Curious that.

16 minutes ago, frenin said:

Btw, is practically impossible Lyanna was pregnant at Harrenhall.

Agreed.

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58 minutes ago, corbon said:

Anger is not unexpected. And Brandon is the wild wolf.
But riding into the keep of the Mad King calling for his heir to "come out and die" is a special kinda stupid. There's just no possibility of any positive outcome. None. Zero. Nil.
And its not like Brandon did it on the spur of the moment - it must have taken days for he and his friends to have gotten to the Red Keep after they learned whatever they learned.

Trying some mad plan to steal her back, and getting killed (or killing Rhaegar) doing it - now thats the sort of response I could respect, and to some extent expect as a possiblility.
Hence not telling anyone where they were, I suspect.

Riding to the Red Keep and shouting for Rhaegar's head after days of riding with your sister in your head would make  wonders in one's mind and you don't even have to be as wild as Brandon to act as rash, i'll forgive the man if he thought his sister was in danger and his reaction is quite predictable anyway, the likelier answer would've been for the Baratheons or Starks to falling over KL with an army, but yet again, Brandon had already fallen in Aerys hand.

If they didn't talk no one where they were, it's probably that someone started looking where his family was, creating all sorts of shitshows and spilling a good deal of blood while at.

 

1 hour ago, corbon said:

Exactly. Lyanna is never even mentioned, that we know of - not even by Brandon, let alone Rickard. Curious that.

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Should be that a biased source who is remembering something that happening 15 years ago and focusing only in those who interest him, not Lyanna, could brief somethings and go directly to the juicy part??

Brandon could've shouted for his sister and Jaime only focused in the come out and die part and from Rickard we only know his actions when he was getting ready to defend his son's life, the idea that they didn't do it because a drunk Jaime says so is... 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, frenin said:

Riding to the Red Keep and shouting for Rhaegar's head after days of riding with your sister in your head would make  wonders in one's mind and you don't even have to be as wild as Brandon to act as rash, i'll forgive the man if he thought his sister was in danger and his reaction is quite predictable anyway, the likelier answer would've been for the Baratheons or Starks to falling over KL with an army, but yet again, Brandon had already fallen in Aerys hand.

If they didn't talk no one where they were, it's probably that someone started looking where his family was, creating all sorts of shitshows and spilling a good deal of blood while at.

I have difficult understanding how anyone can be that stupid.
What possible use is it riding to the Red Keep and shouting for Rhaegar to come out and die? Is there any was that that cold have a useful outcome?
Neither Rhaegar nor Lyanna were even there. So its pretty dumb for a start. But even if they were, thats not an approach that can have any useful way forward.
Being wild and furious is not an excuse for that level of stupidity. Not after days of riding. 

5 minutes ago, frenin said:

Should be that a biased source who is remembering something that happening 15 years ago and focusing only in those who interest him, not Lyanna, could brief somethings and go directly to the juicy part??

Brandon could've shouted for his sister and Jaime only focused in the come out and die part and from Rickard we only know his actions when he was getting ready to defend his son's life, the idea that they didn't do it because a drunk Jaime says so is... 

Yes, these options are possible, though I think it very unlikely, given all that followed, that Jaime would forget or leave out such important details.
I don't see Jaime as being biased at all, but he can have his own focus.

We can only go off the information we have though. We'll revise when we get more information.

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45 minutes ago, corbon said:

I have difficult understanding how anyone can be that stupid.
What possible use is it riding to the Red Keep and shouting for Rhaegar to come out and die? Is there any was that that cold have a useful outcome?
Neither Rhaegar nor Lyanna were even there. So its pretty dumb for a start. But even if they were, thats not an approach that can have any useful way forward.
Being wild and furious is not an excuse for that level of stupidity. Not after days of riding. 

Oh the idea was stupid, but the idea was spurred for the thought of his sister being kidnapped, that you don't expect no one to act rash in that syance, and certainly someone famous for his rashness, is pretty stupid to begin with how they thought her family would act?? To where did they believe the Starks would take their fury??  One has to be in a situation similar before believing one could act with a cool head.

I don't think he thought they weren't there, he went when he thought they were.

It's a pretty damn excuse, especially after days of riding thinking your sister is kidnapped.

 

 

53 minutes ago, corbon said:

Yes, these options are possible, though I think it very unlikely, given all that followed, that Jaime would forget or leave out such important details.
I don't see Jaime as being biased at all, but he can have his own focus.

We can only go off the information we have though. We'll revise when we get more information.

Why not?? We know that Jaime left out such details, the first thing that he says about Rickard is that he demanded a trial by combat and then goes on about telling us, how he died. Not before saying that the accused faced a bogus trial.

I don't think that Jaime is, very, biased, but he certainly don't give a damn about Lyanna nor Lyanna was any relevant to the outcome, since their fates were sealed as long as Brandon was arrested.

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6 hours ago, Marysa Blackfyre said:

.As I said, I'm not convinced of this theory because of Lyanna's personality, but the timeline does not deny this possibility.
 

 It kind of does, since we have no clues whatsoever pointing to Lyanna having two children, for starters. And asspulls  really, really aren’t Martin’s way of telling a story. The other aspect that must be considered when looking at timelines in general, and specifically irt R+L=J is that... this is what Martin does. And brilliantly, I might add. He gives readers enough clues to piece puzzles together, but he always, always leaves it just open-ended enough to create room for speculation. Until he is good and ready to reveal the whole mystery, of course. 

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I too think it highly unlikely that Lyanna was pregnant when she and Rhaegar run off. We don't know exactly when this event occurs, but it is months after the tourney and well after the turning of the new year into 282. It is likely Lyanna's close companions, which every high born lady must have, would know if she was pregnant.  At any rate, if she was by some miracle pregnant from a tryst at Harrenhal, we know that child was not Jon. He is far too young to have been conceived then. Jon was conceived some time in early 283, not in the last months of 281.

As to why Rhaegar ran off together when they did, I think the answer is simple. Her impending marriage to Robert was to happen shortly, and if she wanted out of it she need act quickly. I've made my thoughts on how this happens clear many times before, so some may find them repetitive and wearisome, but let me say again I think this action was a rescue from that unwanted marriage. Not lovers running off together. Becoming lovers likely happens later.

I also think there is nothing to show Brandon rides to the Red Keep to avenge his sister's honor. Indeed he says nothing about his sister, either demanding he be able to see her or to take her back to her family. He rides to King's Landing to demand a duel. I would suggest that he does so thinking he can repeat the demand Lord Baratheon once made to Aegon V Targaryen and for the same reason. The Targaryens have interfered in a marriage contract. It is the  defense of the Lord's right to make such pacts and have them honored that angers him. In the same way Lord Baratheon  was angry in the past, and Lord Frey would be in the future. Unfortunately for Brandon, his companions, and Lord Rickard they all mistake Aerys's idea of justice for Egg's. 

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2 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

 It kind of does, since we have no clues whatsoever pointing to Lyanna having two children, for starters. And asspulls  really, really aren’t Martin’s way of telling a story. The other aspect that must be considered when looking at timelines in general, and specifically irt R+L=J is that... this is what Martin does. And brilliantly, I might add. He gives readers enough clues to piece puzzles together, but he always, always leaves it just open-ended enough to create room for speculation. Until he is good and ready to reveal the whole mystery, of course. 

Look, I said that I don't agree with this theory. Just don't because of the timeline. But that's all, I don't agree just like you.

5 hours ago, frenin said:

What they expected the reaction to "Rhaegar haa kidnapped Lyanna" would be?? 

By the way, I still don't understand how it's possible that someone told Brandon "Lyanna was kidnapped by Rhaegar".
To know that she had been kidnapped by Rhaegar they must have seen Lyanna with Rhaegar's knights.
Didn't they also see that she wasn't rebelling or screaming? Didn't they see that she was riding with them spontaneously?

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1 hour ago, Marysa Blackfyre said:

By the way, I still don't understand how it's possible that someone told Brandon "Lyanna was kidnapped by Rhaegar".
To know that she had been kidnapped by Rhaegar they must have seen Lyanna with Rhaegar's knights.
 Didn't they also see that she wasn't rebelling or screaming? Didn't they see that she was riding with them spontaneously?

Perhaps because she was indeed kidnapped,;)

When you see a minor going with adults she shouldn't be with, you tend to fear the wirst and after Haarrenhall is quite easy see why everyone who saaw the scene believed it was a kidnapp.

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4 hours ago, Marysa Blackfyre said:

By the way, I still don't understand how it's possible that someone told Brandon "Lyanna was kidnapped by Rhaegar".
To know that she had been kidnapped by Rhaegar they must have seen Lyanna with Rhaegar's knights.
Didn't they also see that she wasn't rebelling or screaming? Didn't they see that she was riding with them spontaneously?

I certainly agree it is likely there were witnesses to Lyanna going away with Rhaegar. As I pointed out, it would be extremely uncommon for a high born maid to be traveling unescorted through the Riverlands. While it is barely possible Lyanna ran away on her own and met Rhaegar and company in a secluded place where people would not know who she left with, but that doesn't conform with anything we know. First, we know that Brandon and his company are told on his way back to Riverrun for his wedding about the "kidnapping."  It is likely that it is precisely those members of Lyanna's escort that tell him of the event. Those people surely would consist of Stark guardsmen, or the guardsmen of Stark allies, and a female companion such as we see later in the person of Septa Mordane. Not her specifically, but someone fulfilling that role.

We are also told from the Targaryen account as told to us by Dany that Rhaegar carried his "northern girl" away by sword point, and Daenerys wishes Daario would sweep in and do the same to save her from a unwanted marriage.

I strongly suspect it was Stark guardsmen (Martyn Cassel perhaps?) who were held at bay by those sword points and it was also they who knowing where Brandon was rode in haste to tell him of the kidnapping and which direction Rhaegar and his party fled with Lyanna.

Why didn't they tell Brandon that it appeared as if Lyanna went willingly? I suspect they did, but Brandon already knew that was the case.

Why do people suppose that only Ned knew of Lyanna's objections to Robert? She reads as a young woman who had no problem of telling people what she thought and willing to fight for what she thought. If she was willing to object to Ned, I think she was certainly willing to tell her other brothers and her father about her objections. Furthermore, It seems likely that any attraction Lyanna held for Rhaegar was noticed by all of her brothers at Harrenhal. The problem being it is also likely that Rickard, Brandon, and Ned all thought it was Lyanna's duty to go through with the marriage pact to Robert even over her objections. It was a matter of family honor to do as Rickard said and marry Robert. I believe only Benjen supported Lyanna in this matter, and he was too young and the third son beside to matter much in such discussions.

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8 hours ago, frenin said:

Perhaps because she was indeed kidnapped,;)

When you see a minor going with adults she shouldn't be with, you tend to fear the wirst and after Haarrenhall is quite easy see why everyone who saaw the scene believed it was a kidnapp.

We remember that Lyanna was obstinate and rebellious.
How can you see her there stuck and think of a kidnapping?

Maybe it's my imagination problem.

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8 minutes ago, Marysa Blackfyre said:

We remember that Lyanna was obstinate and rebellious.
How can you see her there stuck and think of a kidnapping?

Maybe it's my imagination problem.

Because those wouldn't know Lyanna, nor we even know if she was kidnapped or not,

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5 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Why didn't they tell Brandon that it appeared as if Lyanna went willingly? I suspect they did, but Brandon already knew that was the case.

Are you saying Brandon didn't care if it was a kidnapping or not?
It seems realistic.
Some time ago I read a theory that someone would deliberately lie so that Brandon would die.
Could it be Littlefinger's work? We know he was supposed to be in the Vale, but I doubt he was comfortable while Brandon was marrying Catelyn.
Maybe he was following them, maybe he saw Lyanna run away and took the opportunity, saying to someone, "Tell Brandon that Lyanna was kidnapped by Rhaegar". It may have been the first of his subterfuges, but since he was still young it wasn't about the Throne yet, maybe it was just a desire to send Brandon away and stop him from marrying Catelyn.

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16 hours ago, frenin said:

Oh the idea was stupid, but the idea was spurred for the thought of his sister being kidnapped, that you don't expect no one to act rash in that syance, and certainly someone famous for his rashness, is pretty stupid to begin with how they thought her family would act?? To where did they believe the Starks would take their fury??  One has to be in a situation similar before believing one could act with a cool head.

I don't think he thought they weren't there, he went when he thought they were.

It's a pretty damn excuse, especially after days of riding thinking your sister is kidnapped

Having days to ponder, and friends to talk this through, really doesn't support the idea of a rash, or spur-of-the-moment decision. By Ned's account, Brandon wasn't stupid and always knew what to do, so I assume there are factors we don't know about yet.

And cool-headed or not, the most natural reaction for someone worried about a kidnapped sibling is enquiring about her. If Jaime reported Brandon yelling "return my sister at once or die", I wouldn't question Brandon's motivation (and knowledge if the whole thing may have been consensual or not). 

 

16 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I also think there is nothing to show Brandon rides to the Red Keep to avenge his sister's honor. Indeed he says nothing about his sister, either demanding he be able to see her or to take her back to her family. He rides to King's Landing to demand a duel.

That is indeed consistent with his actions as well as character (what little we know about). However, I wouldn't rule out avenging the dishonour to his sister as well as family - back at HH, he nearly got to a fistfight with Rhaegar for exactly that reason.

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16 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Having days to ponder, and friends to talk this through, really doesn't support the idea of a rash, or spur-of-the-moment decision. By Ned's account, Brandon wasn't stupid and always knew what to do, so I assume there are factors we don't know about yet.

And cool-headed or not, the most natural reaction for someone worried about a kidnapped sibling is enquiring about her. If Jaime reported Brandon yelling "return my sister at once or die", I wouldn't question Brandon's motivation (and knowledge if the whole thing may have been consensual or not)

It does tho, the more they rode the more time he had a¡to think about that, the angrier he'd get, sometimes time is even worse and we son't even know his friends, they all follow him to that mad quest didn't they??

Or asking for the head of the offender, that's also a pretty natural behaviour and as i said we don't know if he did and Jaime is just ommiting it.

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There is actually justification in the story that some folks in Winterfell believed that Jon was conceived during the Harrenhal tourney.  We just have to add these two Winterfell rumors together to come to that conclusion:

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Ned would not speak of the mother, not so much as a word, but a castle has no secrets, and Catelyn heard her maids repeating tales they heard from the lips of her husbands soldiers.  They whispered of Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, deadliest of the seven knights of Aerys' Kingsguard, and of how their young lord had slain him in single combat.  And they told how afterward Ned had carried Ser Arthur's sword back to the beatiful young sister who awaited him in a castle called Starfall on the shores of the Summer Sea.  The Lady Ashara Dayne, tall and fair with haunting violet eyes.

But the rumors apparently also included the fact that Ned's relationship began and ended at Harrenhal:

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"Aye, he told me.  Lady Ashara Dayne.  It's an old tale, that one.  I heard it once at Winterfell, when I was no older than you are now."  He took a hold of her bridle firmly and turned her horse around.  "I doubt there's any truth to it.  But if there is, what of it? When Ned met this Dornish lady, his brother Brandon was still alive, and it was him betrothed to Lady Catrelyn, so there's no stain on your father's honor.  There's nought like a tourney to make the blood run hot, so maybe some words were whispered in a tent of a night, who can say?  Words or kisses, maybe more, but where's the harm in that?  Spring had come, or so they thought, and neither one of them was pledged."

So perhaps the the maids and soldiers of Winterfell believed that Ned conceived Jon at Harrenhal, despite the fact that it would make him a good bit older than Robb.

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10 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I certainly agree it is likely there were witnesses to Lyanna going away with Rhaegar. As I pointed out, it would be extremely uncommon for a high born maid to be traveling unescorted through the Riverlands.

Yet on her trip down to King's Landing Arya was roaming around the Riverlands on her own quite frequently.

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