When and how Howland Reed will show up?

[sweetsunray]

On 12/12/2019 at 7:16 PM, Mooncalf said:

My problem with Howland being the Mad Mouse is, what took him so long. Rescuing the daughter of your best friend is a nice quest, but she's been in captivity for a long time now. Honestly, for all anyone knew Sansa could've gotten executed anytime after Ned's imprisonment til she escaped on a whim. It seemed very likely before Tyrion showed up. Then Illyen Payne would've killed her if the Tyrells/Tywin didn't drive Stannis off. Joffery also made it very clear he was going to rape her soon in ASOS. Even in the Vale, Sansa came close to Lysa killing her. If Howland was gonna rescue her, he would've started the journey as soon as word got to him that Ned was imprisoned, especially with Tywin focused on Rob's army. Then he could have been in King's Landing sometime in ACOK. Not saying she's safe in the Vale now. Littlefinger will kill/rape her just as easily as Joffery could have. But he would've showed up near King's Landing sooner to come to Sansa's aid, not after she's been taken away.

Well, according to the Mad Mouse he was at the Battle of the Blackwater. And if that is true, then it seems that if the Mad Mouse is indeed HR, he already attempted to seek an opportunity to rescue her from KL, but apparently and logically was unable to.

And for HR to journey towards the Vale, HR would require certain information to reach his ears to go there. At the very least he went in search for Sansa as soon as Brienne did or even before her.

Most of the examples you bring up as threats and "why wasn't he there!" within the red keep are non-issues. You cannot demand HR to get inside the castle and attend Joffrey's wedding.

[sweetsunray]

On 12/12/2019 at 7:58 PM, Mithras said:

After Winterfell is liberated and Bran is restored to the seat in TWoW, he will send a raven to Howland to bring Ned's bones for proper burial. That is how he will be introduced, though I think his appearance might be left to ADoS.

You cannot send a raven to Greywater Watch, as it is a moving castle, and thus not a fixed "home" for ravens to "home in on".

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Howland Reed is not Mad Mouse. That is quite the wishful thinking. If you think Sansa will have a good time in TWoW, you are in for a big surprise.

I back the Mad Mouse being HR potentially. I also still back my proposal that there will be a deadly avalanche that will kill great many characters at the Gates of the Moon, as well as the Burned Men leading many united mountain clans into an attack onto the Bloody Gate (harmed because of the avalanche, rock slides, or potential earthquake). So, there's no reason whatsoever to claim that people who suspect MM = HR also believe Sansa will be having a good time in tWoW.

@Blue-Eyed Wolf who made an extensive proposal on the identity of the three hedge knights that LF hires also believes disastrous events (such as my proposed avalanche) will occur in the Vale.

There are but a few conclusions to disastrous events at the Gates of the Moon: either Sansa is kidnapped by Mountain Clans, MM et all extract her or she escapes all by herself. We can rule out the latter. The first still requires an extraction team to take her from the Mountain Clans for her plot to move forward. MM was on the surface set up to be someone hunting Sansa for Cersei's promised coin, but Brienne's POV is unreliable for she has difficulty reading people. Instead, MM and co seem the likeliest candidates to extract Sansa either from the Gates of the Moon or from the Mountain Clans and get her to John Royce (and his forces) whom George neatly kept out whatever disasters will befall towards the end of the tourney (or right after).

[sweetsunray]

On 12/12/2019 at 10:12 PM, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Howland Reed has nothing to do with Sansa. Howland Reed has to do with the Long Night and old gods and the green men and greenseers.

Ah, so he hasn't been on a quest to save a missing Stark daughter before?

[Alexis-something-Rose]

19 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Ah, so he hasn't been on a quest to save a missing Stark daughter before?

He knew that missing daughter. He doesn't know this one. Howland had history with Lyanna. 

I just don't think Howland Reed is the Mad Mouse or the High Sparrow or anyone else. 

[sweetsunray]

1 minute ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

He knew that missing daughter. He doesn't know this one. Howland had history with Lyanna. 

I just don't think Howland Reed is the Mad Mouse or the High Sparrow or anyone else. 

He has a history with that missing daughter's father. Whether or not you believe MM = HR, doesn't make your argument "how he has no connection to Sansa" a good one.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

45 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

He has a history with that missing daughter's father. Whether or not you believe MM = HR, doesn't make your argument "how he has no connection to Sansa" a good one.

Fair enough. 

Howland Reed didn't even march to war with Robb and he sends his children up to Winterfell only because of Jojen's dream. Why in the world would he go fetch Sansa all the way in King's Landing? Robb didn't tell him to. Robb had very clear commands for him and none of them involved getting Sansa.

[sweetsunray]

3 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Fair enough. 

Howland Reed didn't even march to war with Robb ... Robb had very clear commands for him and none of them involved getting Sansa.

Because HR and his crannogmen are wasted as foot soldiers. Their warfare is far more fitting for guerilla and stealth. 

As for Robb's commands. They were the following:

1. To make the lives of Lannisters miserable if they dared to cross the KR through the Neck. Lannisters never got more North than Darry.
2. Robb sent a message with Galbart and Maege to inform HR of his plan to retake Moat Cailin from the Ironborn. Robb died before ever being able to put that plan into action.

Now we do know that the crannogmen did target the ironborn at Moat Cailin as many had already died from the poisoned arrows when Theon pays them a visit. But where does it say that HR has to personally supervize it? I don't recall such order.

3 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

and he sends his children up to Winterfell only because of Jojen's dream.

Yes, he does. Jojen has a green dream, and HR pays heed to it. It means that HR pays a mind to the Old Gods and their magic. Why do you think Sansa would excluded from that? Because she lost Lady? Because she sang the song of the Mother in aCoK? She's getting very into weirwoods and Old Gods at the Vale, except at the Eyrie they don't grow (but there's a weirwood chair)

HR also talks to trees. Are you so certain that HR hasn't been receiving word from the Old Gods, like say the Isle of Faces? And are you so certain that they wouldn't give a shit about Sansa? The GoHH has two green dreams of her after all.

3 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Why in the world would he go fetch Sansa all the way in King's Landing? Robb didn't tell him to.

Because HR may have gotten a warning about her via the trees, and his crannogmen can pincushion ironborn and Lannisters without him personally supervizing it.

[Blue-Eyed Wolf]

19 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Because HR may have gotten a warning about her via the trees, and his crannogmen can pincushion ironborn and Lannisters without him personally supervizing it

Jumping in after a long time away.   Yeah, there is Jyana Reed, Howland's wife, listed in the appendix.  Some lords do trust their lady wives to handle defense in their absence.  Ned trusts Catelyn to call the banners for him, be his voice in the North, and effectively rule Winterfell until his return.  Meera has martial skills, which indicates the crannogmen are pretty comfortable with women as fighters.  Who's to say Mrs. Reed wasn't up in a tree plunking poisoned arrows into the enemy too? 

The task of bottlenecking Ironborn and Lannisters in the Neck is not an arena of conflict with major dramatic importance.  It's sufficient that Theon can just tell us that it's happened off-page after the fact.  This makes perfect sense to use a currently off-page character like Jyana to be in charge of something like that.  I think we can safely assume they probably have other leaders in their ranks too.   When it comes to HR, I gotta say for a character who is:

• central to the core story's secrets
• has an established history and deep friendship with Ned's generation
• was a key witness to the events of the Tourney of Harrenhal
• saved Ned's life at the Tower of Joy by helping defeat Arthur Freakin' Dane, the greatest swordsman of his day.
• is shown to be not the average crannogman for leaving the Neck, going on his own adventures, and fighting alongside the Starks during RR.   
• probably experienced grief and guilt by failing to rescue his friend Lyana, who I would argue was the Stark he felt the most emotional attachment to (KotLT).
•  is an Isle of Faces-trained magician no less.

leaving him just hanging out in the Neck for 5 books is a super lame-ass waste of a really interesting and important character, his knowledge, and his skillset.  This is not the guy who would put his only children on the line to help Ned's sons and sit on his ass while Ned's daughters are in danger.  He's not going to sit around and wait for any potential orders to arrive by messenger.  And Robb isn't going to use guerilla fighters on the field anyway.  It is literally in his characterization that he does not stay home where it's safe.  He marches to his own drummer and goes where the action is, as shown in his backstory.  Learned all the magic from his people?  Well, gotta go spend a year at Green Man University to learn more.  What's that over there?  Big people throwing a tourney? Cool, gotta go check it out.  When war comes, he adapts to fighting alongside the big people when crannogmen are supposed to be at a severe disadvantage.  Dollars to donuts, when GRRM reveals HR, we'll learn he was NOT parked in the Neck all this time doing boring off-page stuff.  Badass, worthy-of-his-talents stuff, yes.  Boring, anyone-else-can-do stuff, no.