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Tywin Manderly

US Politics: Nancy's Knock on the Senate Door

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2 hours ago, Ormond said:

Guess I'd have to hear them say that on the show to be sure David remembers that correctly. I don't think most people even know what "third cousin" means (it means you share one set of great-great-grandparents.)

You know I really had to go and find the answer after this discussion and David was totally misleading. The full episode, from 2017, is on You Tube and it’s actually quite fascinating. They traced back both of their families 5 generations. No connections before they lost the thread. Then they did a DNA test and there is a strong DNA connection showing a common ancestor. But I thought they had actually found a common great-great whatever ancestor.

On Larry David’s father’s side (‘no wonder he never talked about them’) David discovered his great-grandfather was a member of the Jewish community of Mobile, Alabama, who owned slaves and fought as a soldier on the Confederate side. Now that shocked the heck out of him!

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51 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

20% is not really great tho, is it?

 

Well, it encompasses the younger portion of the black vote.  And we've been hearing the "well why should we count on a group of voters who turn out unreliably?".  Maybe they just haven't had a candidate they can get behind.  

Also, according to this poll Sanders has a lead over Biden among people if color.  

Quote

Notably, though, Sanders is the candidate who narrowly leads with nonwhite voters, 29% to 26%, over Biden. This might be because of Sanders' strength with younger voters of color and Latinos. But the margins of error with these subgroups are too high to draw any definitive conclusions.

Sanders also leads with younger voters under 45 (37%), progressives (29%), people who live in big cities (28%), voters in the Northeast (27%) and men (27%). Warren is second with progressives (23%).

 

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On 1/7/2020 at 11:37 PM, The Last Storm said:

Hopefully nothing else happens, because, and I don’t enjoy saying this, a response by the US military won’t involve our missles not detonating.

I had to go back and find this rather arrogant response. A CNN reporter was allowed onto the base today to look at the damage caused by the missiles and the living quarters of the US troops were totally bombed out. The Iranians had accurate location information and hit them with precision. That was meant as a message to the US military. The Iranians, of course, warned the Iraq government that an attack was coming and they in turn warned the US military, and troops were evacuated to their bunkers. Without the warnings there would have been a lot of dead Americans.

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11 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I had to go back and find this rather arrogant response. A CNN reporter was allowed onto the base today to look at the damage caused by the missiles and the living quarters of the US troops were totally bombed out. The Iranians had accurate location information and hit them with precision. That was meant as a message to the US military. The Iranians, of course, warned the Iraq government that an attack was coming and they in turn warned the US military, and troops were evacuated to their bunkers. Without the warnings there would have been a lot of dead Americans.

Thank you for taking on the stupidity in the quote you responded to. DD, however, will ignore the message in favor of politics and will assume his gamble worked.

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Biden, Sanders, and Warren.  Old - all of them.  Old people can and do die,  Hence, their choices for Veep become crucial.

 

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23 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I had to go back and find this rather arrogant response. A CNN reporter was allowed onto the base today to look at the damage caused by the missiles and the living quarters of the US troops were totally bombed out. The Iranians had accurate location information and hit them with precision. That was meant as a message to the US military. The Iranians, of course, warned the Iraq government that an attack was coming and they in turn warned the US military, and troops were evacuated to their bunkers. Without the warnings there would have been a lot of dead Americans.

Grateful for the warning. Kind of defeats the purpose though. Like I said it’s good nobody was killed in their response. Would have been nice if the Ukrainian airliner was given a warning as well.

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9 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

Biden, Sanders, and Warren.  Old - all of them.  Old people can and do die,  Hence, their choices for Veep become crucial.

 

I want it to be Stacy Abrams.  Don't know if she'll do it.  

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2 hours ago, Triskele said:

Latest poll of Dem candidate popularity with black voters had Biden at 48%, Bernie at 20%, Warren at 9%, and Pete at 2%.  I didn't realize that Bernie's lead over Warren would be that much.  Maybe I'm just remembering a narrative of "Bernie struggles with black voters" from 2016 and not the corollary of "no, only older black voters."  

This kind of perplexes me, and maybe its just because i’m not from the U.S and am missing some vital context and/or details. What does Biden, or Bernie, offer black voters than Warren does not? I get personal preferences and all but i would have thought the gap would be much narrower if thats all it was. Is there some particular policy (or lack of policy) or something Warren has done to switch Black voters off from her? Or that Biden has done to win them? (I’m assuming, perhaps wrongly, its nothing as simple as Biden being Obama’s VP)

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15 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Thank you for taking on the stupidity in the quote you responded to. DD, however, will ignore the message in favor of politics and will assume his gamble worked.

As a US veteran who comes from a family of service members I don’t think it’s stupid to be happy that we don’t have to respond. If lives were lost I’m not sure if that would be the case.

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4 minutes ago, HelenaExMachina said:

This kind of perplexes me, and maybe its just because i’m not from the U.S and am missing some vital context and/or details. What does Biden, or Bernie, offer black voters than Warren does not? I get personal preferences and all but i would have thought the gap would be much narrower if thats all it was. Is there some particular policy (or lack of policy) or something Warren has done to switch Black voters off from her? Or that Biden has done to win them? (I’m assuming, perhaps wrongly, its nothing as simple as Biden being Obama’s VP)

Name recognition, and leftist stance.  Biden has the South and older voters, he was Obama's VP, and Sanders' campaign reached out to the youth vote, which is probabaly left of Sanders.  He's the least worst option, for the young left.  Warren's policies are fine but she's a northeastern Republican turned liberal.  I'm sure black voters would turn out in Hillary Clinton 2016 numbers or better for all three of them.  But Sanders and Biden are ahead because they offer either familiarity and reliability (Biden) or someone who is listening to concerns and offers a new path for the future (Sanders).

Edited by larrytheimp
Policy has zero to do with it

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3 minutes ago, The Last Storm said:

As a US veteran who comes from a family of service members I don’t think it’s stupid to be happy that we don’t have to respond. If lives were lost I’m not sure if that would be the case.

I think you missed the point. It's the dammed arrogance of saying 'there won't be undonated missiles'. Americans regularly have undetonated missiles. And as for the Ukrainian airline, you guys also have a long history of killing your own soldiers, your allies' soldiers, and thousands of innocent citizens. I don't care how many members of your family have been in the military, you guys kill a lot of people indiscriminately. 

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1 minute ago, Fragile Bird said:

I think you missed the point. It's the dammed arrogance of saying 'there won't be undonated missiles'. Americans regularly have undetonated missiles. And as for the Ukrainian airline, you guys also have a long history of killing your own soldiers, your allies' soldiers, and thousands of innocent citizens. I don't care how many members of your family have been in the military, you guys kill a lot of people indiscriminately. 

Indeed. There’s not a country in the world that has a top military that hasn’t made horrible mistakes that has resulted in innocents killed. As far as the Iranian airliner, I believe it was flying over an active war zone at the time is was tragically shot down. 

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15 minutes ago, HelenaExMachina said:

What does Biden, or Bernie, offer black voters than Warren does not?

What Larry said.  Sanders benefits from familiarity as well.

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13 minutes ago, The Last Storm said:

As a US veteran who comes from a family of service members I don’t think it’s stupid to be happy that we don’t have to respond. If lives were lost I’m not sure if that would be the case.

Then as a vet, you should know that you seriously mischaracterized the Iranian response, that the missiles you implied were duds were actually probably intercepted by surface-to-air missiles rather than failed to explode (e.g. your "ours will actually" explode comment) and that the Iranian response was meant to send a signal that they could have killed or injured hundreds of U.S. troops but refrained from doing so.

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And at least according to that link Biden's support also comes from the "best chance to beat Trump" calculus in addition to the Obama VP factor.  

I know I've seen a few other pieces kicking around a la "Dem voters are really into trying to pick who will be best to beat Trump but aren't sure who it is" which very much describes my anxiety-addled self.  

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5 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Then as a vet, you should know that you seriously mischaracterized the Iranian response, that the missiles you implied were duds were actually probably intercepted by surface-to-air missiles rather than failed to explode (e.g. your "ours will actually" explode comment) and that the Iranian response was meant to send a signal that they could have killed or injured hundreds of U.S. troops but refrained from doing so.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/01/08/reports-of-failed-missiles-satellite-photos-emerge-after-irans-tuesday-attack/amp/

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17 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Name recognition, and leftist stance.  Biden has the South and older voters, he was Obama's VP, and Sanders' campaign reached out to the youth vote, which is probabaly left of Sanders.  He's the least worst option, for the young left.  Warren's policies are fine but she's a northeastern Republican turned liberal.  I'm sure black voters would turn out in Hillary Clinton 2016 numbers or better for all three of them.  But Sanders and Biden are ahead because they offer either familiarity and reliability (Biden) or someone who is listening to concerns and offers a new path for the future (Sanders).

 

3 minutes ago, DMC said:

What Larry said.  Sanders benefits from familiarity as well.

Thanks, that is very helpful for me. Bit disappointing how far familiarity/name recognition alone seems to get you (i do not like Biden as a candidate at all, and i’m lukewarm on Bernie)

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7 minutes ago, HelenaExMachina said:

Bit disappointing how far familiarity/name recognition alone seems to get you

I think it makes some sense if you approach it from the perspective of it takes a long time for black voters to trust/be comfortable with a candidate.

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