International Thread 4

[Mindwalker]

Oh, the AfD and afaik all the other fascist/ populist parties in Europe have loved Trump from the start!

[Varysblackfyre321]

57 minutes ago, Prue said:

Incidentally, those right-wing neo-nazi protesters who tried to storm the Reichstag in Berlin yesterday waved Reichskriegsflaggen (Imperial War Flags) and American Flags. I guess they see a kindred ideology represented by the current US administration... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/29/berlin-braces-for-anti-coronavirus-protest-against-covid-19-restrictions

But twitter mobs, and racism is totes over, in regards to nonwhites, and the biggest threats to democracy are Sock justice warriors who’d get a man fired for being racist.

Kidding.

 

[The Anti-Targ]

This looks very bad. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/climate-and-people/investigation-african-migrants-left-die-saudi-arabias-hellish/

Quote

Investigation: African migrants 'left to die' in Saudi Arabia’s hellish Covid detention centres 

'The guards just throw the bodies out back as if it was trash,' said one

Saudi Arabia, one of the wealthiest countries on earth, is keeping hundreds if not thousands of African migrants locked in heinous conditions reminiscent of Libya’s slave camps as part of a drive to stop the spread of Covid-19, an investigation by The Sunday Telegraph has found. 

Graphic mobile phone images sent to the newspaper by migrants held inside the detention centres show dozens of emaciated men crippled by the Arabian heat lying shirtless in tightly packed rows in small rooms with barred windows. 

I hope this gets picked up and investigated by more in the media. Protesting masks seems like the height of privilege in the face of news like this.

 

[Mladen]

https://balkaninsight.com/2020/08/30/live-blog-montenegro-elections-2020/

After thirty years, the rule of one of the last European dictators has finally came to an end. From communist to nationalist and now pro-European democrat, Milo Djukanovic ruled Montenegro with iron fist supported by what EU and USA officials call "endemic corruption" in a country that descended from democratic to "hybrid system" (per Freedom House). For so long, Western countries closed their eyes to what has been happening in Montenegro, but finally the people rose, It is a narrow victory and Djukanovic will never dignify anyone of admitting a defeat. 

The air is much clearer in Montenegro today. And we can hope Western officials will support the end of 30-year-long rule of one man and help the new government in reforms that will ultimately lead country where it belongs, to EU.

[The Anti-Targ]

And just to continue the year of things going to shit. Last week we had cyber attacks that took down our stock exchange. Now I'm hearing that there may be attempted cyber attacks on govt systems. Who knows from whom or where? There has been no info in the media about who / where the attacks on the stock exchange came from. Our spy agencies are probably keeping that information close to the chest, but I imagine they have a pretty good idea.

[Week]

On 8/20/2020 at 8:48 AM, Heartofice said:

The trend is to paint Putin as some evil mastermind, but when looking at the stories behind these poisonings you often see tales of incompetence and poor communication, often not appearing to be especially well planned. Who knows who ordered what and when.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/world/europe/navalny-poison-novichok.html?action=click&module=Latest&pgtype=Homepage

Quote

The Russian opposition leader Aleksei A. Navalny, currently under treatment in a German hospital, was poisoned with a deadly nerve agent from the Novichok family, the German government said on Wednesday.

Citing what it called “unequivocal evidence,” Berlin demanded an explanation from Moscow in a case that seems bound to raise tensions once more between Russia and the West.

Novichok, a Soviet-era weapon invented for military use, was used against Sergei V. Skripal, a former Soviet spy, and his daughter in a 2018 attack in Salisbury, England, that the British government attributed to Russia’s military intelligence arm, the G.R.U.

At the time of the Skripal poisoning, experts said that the stockpile of Novichok was tightly guarded, and expressed doubts that the substance would be used by anyone other than a state-sponsored agent.

Who knows who ordered the tightly guarded nerve agent to be used against an opposition leader? 

[Heartofice]

16 minutes ago, Week said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/world/europe/navalny-poison-novichok.html?action=click&module=Latest&pgtype=Homepage

Who knows who ordered the tightly guarded nerve agent to be used against an opposition leader? 

I was never in any sort of denial that Putin would have ordered such attack, more than likely he did, it is consistent with his past actions. My point was merely that while he might order things I don’t think he is in quite the level of control of events that we assume he is. There appears to be a level of chaos that we don’t get to see, and Putin likes that we all think he’s some sort of puppet master.

[Week]

1 hour ago, Heartofice said:

I was never in any sort of denial that Putin would have ordered such attack, more than likely he did, it is consistent with his past actions. My point was merely that while he might order things I don’t think he is in quite the level of control of events that we assume he is. There appears to be a level of chaos that we don’t get to see, and Putin likes that we all think he’s some sort of puppet master.

He certainly did. If you have no sort of denial then your certainty ought to be stronger than "more than likely". 

What is your point? What level of control are you parsing here? He ordered the assassination attempt put didn't pick out the outfit that the assassin wore? All that matters is the order of assassination of a political rival with a nerve agent (presumably, access would require approval or it is perhaps a blanket approved MO for all of these assassination attempts).

[broken one]

nobody questions his responsibility, but as the moment is badly chosen some suggest he is not in (absolute) control of FSS .

[Loge]

12 hours ago, broken one said:

nobody questions his responsibility, but as the moment is badly chosen some suggest he is not in (absolute) control of FSS .

Why would the moment be poorly chosen?

[broken one]

1 hour ago, Loge said:

Why would the moment be poorly chosen?

because two things combined - poisoning the dissident and possible need to intervene in belarus - would be harder to swallow for western Putinverstehers than made separately

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Putinversteher

[Loge]

1 hour ago, broken one said:

because two things combined - poisoning the dissident and possible need to intervene in belarus - would be harder to swallow for western Putinverstehers than made separately

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Putinversteher

I don't see why. They don't seem to find anything he does objectionable.

[broken one]

2 hours ago, Loge said:

I don't see why. They don't seem to find anything he does objectionable.

Ive read recently that "Germany is loosing patience", whatever it means. I guess Merkel would like to have Nordstream 2 done but she is not Schroeder. Moreover - afaik she is going to finish her chancelorship soon. I think there are some politicians in CDU/CSU who could possibly change the course, or maybe even cancell the project, so it is not in Putins interest to intensify bad vibes.

On 8/31/2020 at 3:19 AM, Mladen said:

ultimately lead country where it belongs, to EU.

Well, good luck. I used to think the same about Poland, today I am not so sure about where it belongs. I do not follow the accession process of Montenegro, but I think after Polish-Hungarian display the Westerners may not be so enthusiastic anymore.

[broken one]

On 8/31/2020 at 3:19 AM, Mladen said:

ultimately lead country where it belongs, to EU.

Well, good luck. I used to think the same about Poland, today I am not so sure about where it belongs. I do not follow the accession process of Montenegro, but I think after Polish-Hungarian display the Westerners may not be so enthusiastic anymore.

[broken one]

On 9/3/2020 at 11:14 AM, Loge said:

Why would the moment be poorly chosen?

Look what Lukaszenka has just said - poisoning Navalny is Polish-German hoax, made up to prevent Russian intervention in Belarus XD Seems the moment was poorly chosen

[Horza]

A military grade nerve agent and the full court denials points either at the apex or its tightest and closest associates. I do think the timing is weird but I guess either the administration is more paranoid about Navalny-Belarus-Khabarovsk than I imagine or Navalny’s investigations crossed a line with a Kadyrov or Prigozhin-level untouchable.

 

—-

While we’re on Belarus, Luka just swapped out his fiercely autonomy-minded KGB chief for a guy with a good working relationship with the FSB. Just one of the ways in which Lukas weakness is an opportunity for Moscow.

[Rippounet]

20 hours ago, broken one said:

nobody questions his responsibility, but as the moment is badly chosen some suggest he is not in (absolute) control of FSS .

The alternative being that Putin doesn't give a fuck about optics, public opinion, or whatever. He's the richest man in the world, a popular autocrat, and he knows most European nations will never actually move against him, not as long as he supplies Europe with gas and other resources at least.
In fact, sloppy assassinations could very well be part of his image strategy since they show he is not to be fucked with.
I remember reading that people tend to overestimate Putin's intelligence, that he is really just a thug who lacks any kind of subtlety. His personal history and demeanor support that imho.

[rotting sea cow]

3 hours ago, Rippounet said:

The alternative being that Putin doesn't give a fuck about optics, public opinion, or whatever. He's the richest man in the world, a popular autocrat, and he knows most European nations will never actually move against him, not as long as he supplies Europe with gas and other resources at least.
In fact, sloppy assassinations could very well be part of his image strategy since they show he is not to be fucked with.

Yes, I was reaching to the same conclusion because I couldn't wrap my head about it.

1) As in the Skripal poisoning, it failed to kill the target. WTF? Isn't Novichok supposed to be a very deadly agent?

2) Using the same poison as in the Skripal case is a confession they did both, which Russia so far has denied.

3) There are certainly better ways to get rid of an enemy than sloppy poisonings. From a COVID-19 infection to Chechen's mafia thugs.

4) They tell me that Navalny was hardly a threat within Russia despite all claims from the media.

So, this thing is a message. The target didn't matter, neither the outcome.

 

[broken one]

14 hours ago, Rippounet said:

The alternative being that Putin doesn't give a fuck about optics, public opinion, or whatever. He's the richest man in the world, a popular autocrat, and he knows most European nations will never actually move against him, not as long as he supplies Europe with gas and other resources at least.
In fact, sloppy assassinations could very well be part of his image strategy since they show he is not to be fucked with.
I remember reading that people tend to overestimate Putin's intelligence, that he is really just a thug who lacks any kind of subtlety. His personal history and demeanor support that imho.

I know very well he generally does not give a fuck and who he is, Russia has been theme of the day in Poland since 1989, but 'not giving a fuck' is scalable thing. I do not expect anyone to "move against him", to stop feeding him would be enough and I can imagine this happening in foreseeable future. I do not even try to estimate his intelligence.

[Loge]

13 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Yes, I was reaching to the same conclusion because I couldn't wrap my head about it.

1) As in the Skripal poisoning, it failed to kill the target. WTF? Isn't Novichok supposed to be a very deadly agent?

2) Using the same poison as in the Skripal case is a confession they did both, which Russia so far has denied.

3) There are certainly better ways to get rid of an enemy than sloppy poisonings. From a COVID-19 infection to Chechen's mafia thugs.

4) They tell me that Navalny was hardly a threat within Russia despite all claims from the media.

So, this thing is a message. The target didn't matter, neither the outcome.

 

It isn't necessarily a failure. That depends on the objective. One can assume that it wasn't petty revenge. Navalny survived but he is has been neutralised for now. And who knows if he ever makes a full recovery or how long that will take. What probably wasn't planned is him being moved to Germany. That has obviously complicated things. But from the fact that he was assassinated and the timing, one can assume that Putin deemed him more dangerous than the Western press gives him credit for. A somewhat botched poisoning also sends out a message to Putin's opponents as it makes sure everybody knows what happened (while the Kremlin can still deny it).