International Thread 4

[broken one]

On 9/28/2020 at 9:40 AM, Gorn said:

Azerbaijan and Armenia just went to war over Nagorno-Karabakh, or rather continued the war which was frozen (with minor flare-ups) for the last 26 years:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/28/dozens-dead-as-armenia-azerbaijan-clashes-continue

Clear picture about what is going on is hard to get, since both sides are spreading propaganda about their incredible successes, and there doesn't seem to be any independent reporters or observers on the scene. Azerbaijan made some progress and suffered some casualties in men and armor, while Armenians are suffering casualties from Azerbaijani drones.

Seems Armenians are loosing. The wave of drones had silenced Armenian anti aircraft systems and Azerbaijan started to send helicopters. Maybe this time the sad saga will end.

[Paxter]

8 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2020/10/evo-morales-interview-bolivia-mas-election

I do hope Bolivia manages to wrestle control from the extreme right.

I don't see how the extreme right could win absent blatant fraud (which I guess, yeah, they are capable of). Mesa is not from the extreme right and he will almost certainly poll second. 

Looking at the polling, it's going to be a close race. Arce is currently in the 30s...if he can't avoid a second round then it might be difficult for him, particularly as the current government has tried its best to make campaigning difficult for MAS. Anez dropping out seems to have helped Mesa slightly (now polling mid to late 20s). 

 

[Varysblackfyre321]

On 10/8/2020 at 10:38 AM, Paxter said:

I don't see how the extreme right could win absent blatant fraud (which I guess, yeah, they are capable of). Mesa is not from the extreme right and he will almost certainly poll second. 

Looking at the polling, it's going to be a close race. Arce is currently in the 30s...if he can't avoid a second round then it might be difficult for him, particularly as the current government has tried its best to make campaigning difficult for MAS. Anez dropping out seems to have helped Mesa slightly (now polling mid to late 20s). 

 

He hasn't really condemned the coup or Anez for all her crimes.

And she probably dropped out in hopes of getting him a boost. I don't think she’d do that if she didn't think he’d play ball with fascists.

 

[Varysblackfyre321]

@Paxter

Like there's a reason why the right is generally pulling Arce; https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/bolivia-flirts-with-the-return-of-evo-11602446639

It's not because they care about Democracy,

[Varysblackfyre321]

Greece’s Golden Dawn leaders sentenced to 13 years in jail

https://amp.ft.com/content/b2903dee-cd5f-403e-913e-f6d9ab5e9caa

Really should have been a lot longer. 

[The Anti-Targ]

It's quite surreal. We're 2 days out from our election and the leaders of our two biggest political parties are bickering about whether obesity is or isn't solely a personal responsibility issue. I mean obesity is a significant health problem, and should not be ignored, but for right now there may be some more important issues to be talking about, whichever side of the personal responsibility divide you fall on.

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

It's quite surreal. We're 2 days out from our election and the leaders of our two biggest political parties are bickering about whether obesity is or isn't solely a personal responsibility issue. I mean obesity is a significant health problem, and should not be ignored, but for right now there may be some more important issues to be talking about, whichever side of the personal responsibility divide you fall on.

Who are you referring to?

[Winterfell is Burning]

So, yesterday, a senator here in Brazil was caught by the Federal police with money hidden in his butt. No, that's not a metaphor for anything.  Just something that happened.

[Toth]

3 minutes ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

So, yesterday, a senator here in Brazil was caught by the Federal police with money hidden in his butt. No, that's not a metaphor for anything.  Just something that happened.

Was it at least a coin roll?

[Winterfell is Burning]

6 minutes ago, Toth said:

Was it at least a coin roll?

LOL! Also, I forgot to say he sits in the Senate ethics committee- though it's unclear yet whether he ever sat there with money in his butt.

[The Anti-Targ]

16 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Who are you referring to?

The leaders of National and Labour.

[Varysblackfyre321]

15 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

The leaders of National and Labour.

Ah thanks for clarifying.

[The Anti-Targ]

Nearly 50% of eligible voters have voted and election day is tomorrow. A friend who is working as an area manager for the elections said counting of the advanced voting ballots will commence tomorrow morning, but reporting of the results won't happen until polling closes. But with 50% of ballots already cast I would think the election will be pretty much called the minute polls close, and the post poll closure counting will just refine the numbers a bit. My assumption is that left-leaning voters will have tended to vote before election day, and right-leaning voters will vote on the day. So probably the immediate result being reported will be biased towards the left parties and that the right parties will  get an increased vote share as the night goes on. I won't be glued to any media while the count is happening, I'll n o doubt get regular alerts on my phone and keep tabs on it that way.

That may contrast somewhat from the US election in a couple of week's time where the winner may not be known for some time.

[broken one]

12 hours ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

So, yesterday, a senator here in Brazil was caught by the Federal police with money hidden in his butt. No, that's not a metaphor for anything.  Just something that happened.

What's the currency? It must have been golden dragons or he has very capacious butt.

[felice]

On 10/16/2020 at 3:13 PM, The Anti-Targ said:

My assumption is that left-leaning voters will have tended to vote before election day, and right-leaning voters will vote on the day. So probably the immediate result being reported will be biased towards the left parties and that the right parties will  get an increased vote share as the night goes on.

I hope you're right! On current numbers, the nominally left competent-but-do-nothing Labour party is easily going to be able to govern on their own, leaving the Greens without any leverage to push for actual left wing policies.

[The Anti-Targ]

3 hours ago, felice said:

I hope you're right! On current numbers, the nominally left competent-but-do-nothing Labour party is easily going to be able to govern on their own, leaving the Greens without any leverage to push for actual left wing policies.

I was right, but not right enough to prevent Labour getting a majority of seats. But right enough to prevent Labour getting >50% of the vote share.

National took a pounding. Down 17.5% from the last election and only 7.5% of that broke right to ACT.

I wonder if Labour will trow out an olive branch to the Maori Party and offer a minister outside of Cabinet role for Associate Maori Affairs. If the maori Party wants to increase vote share it needs to show it can work with the Labour Party, and not just be the Maori wing of the National party, per RBPL's favourite saying about them. I wonder too if the Greens will be thrown a bone and given some associate minister portfolios outside cabinet.

Labour should shore up coalition partners because I would put money on there being defections within a year, and they could get close to losing their majority.

Interesting the polls were bascially in the margin for error pretty much across the board, but the margin broke in favor of Labour, 3% above the last few polls for Labour, 3-4% below the last few polls for National, Act pretty much on the money and Greens also about 1.5% above the polling.

[felice]

7 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I wonder too if the Greens will be thrown a bone and given some associate minister portfolios outside cabinet.

I think it would be better for them to act as opposition, so they can be free to criticise Labour from the left. That could help them more in the long run than being unneeded junior partners in an unimpressive government.

7.7% of the vote being wasted really sucks. None of the affected parties are ones I actually wanted to see in parliament, but the 5% threshold is still profoundly undemocratic.

[DireWolfSpirit]

Congratulations New Zealand-

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5f8ad724c5b67da85d1e7725

[kiko]

11 hours ago, felice said:

I think it would be better for them to act as opposition, so they can be free to criticise Labour from the left. That could help them more in the long run than being unneeded junior partners in an unimpressive government.

7.7% of the vote being wasted really sucks. None of the affected parties are ones I actually wanted to see in parliament, but the 5% threshold is still profoundly undemocratic.

It is only undemocratic if you don't understand where it is coming from. It was one of the reasons that the Weimar republic failed.

As long as nobody stops those splinter parties from working outside of parliament, I don't see the problem. Does  NZ also pay them election costs compensation if they are above a much lower threshold? In Germany it is 1%, I think, so those parties can have a voice without having a seat in parliament.

[The Anti-Targ]

13 hours ago, felice said:

I think it would be better for them to act as opposition, so they can be free to criticise Labour from the left. That could help them more in the long run than being unneeded junior partners in an unimpressive government.

7.7% of the vote being wasted really sucks. None of the affected parties are ones I actually wanted to see in parliament, but the 5% threshold is still profoundly undemocratic.

I dislike MMP as a system, I prefer STV and that's what I voted for in the referendum back in...1992? IMO the thinking voter mostly voted for STV, MMP was just the system all the political parties pushed for, aside from the ones who wanted to keep FPTP, and so a lot of people didn't think too much about it and followed their preferred party's instructions.

Honestly that sniping from the left outside govt seems motivated by cunning political gamesmanship. If they think environment and climate change are as urgent as they say then there isn't time to play games and hope for a bigger vote share and Labour to lose their absolute majority at the next election. In three years all those Nat to Labour voters might swing back to Nat and deliver a National-lead govt. Greens might steal votes from Labour's left, but that won't to a damned bit of good if the left is out in 3 years. And believe me a landslide one way can turn to a landslide the opposite way within 3 years, my Dad was the beneficiary of one and the victim of the next. And even in the 2014 election every pundit was saying that National had guaranteed itself a 4th term, but then John Key got bored, and Jacindamania caused enough of a tremor to flip the 2017 election.

480K special votes (that's a lot! 16% of the electorate) and combined that makes an 82.5% turnout. The Greens tend to do well with special votes so they could gain some seats, and that big of a vote block still to be counted means Labour could lose it's absolute majority, though more likely their majority will drop from 64 seats to 62 or 63.