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Tywin Manderly

International Thread 4

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2 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

I'll have to look into specifics. But in 1918 I'm not sure if anything was done. 1% died, didn't it?

It was horrifying.  Read, The Great Influenza by John M. Barry.  In raw numbers it may have killed more people than any other disease in recorded history (percentages were lower but raw numbers were higher).

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8 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

It was horrifying.  Read, The Great Influenza by John M. Barry.  In raw numbers it may have killed more people than any other disease in recorded history (percentages were lower but raw numbers were higher).

A quick check did reveal that quarantines and shutdown of some public services were used back in 1918.

But what if that was tried in the U.S. today?

I'm not sure what would be the reaction if people were told their city was under quarantine and that they couldn't leave, they couldn't go to the mall, they couldn't go to the movies.

Such a shutdown of free motion would of course be violating peoples rights, but it would also be stopping said hypothetical disease from spreading and killing people.

Edited by A True Kaniggit

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52 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

Surprised no one has mentioned that new virus that appeared in China. The Chinese government seems on top of limiting its impact, locking down the originating area.

Makes me wonder what would happen if a novel virus developed in a U.S. city.

The Chinese response of curtailing travel/public services/entertainment will undoubtedly save lives. Would such a thing be allowed in the U.S.?

 

When SARS hit Ontario, nobody was prepared and that was 2003. The hospital I worked at was one of the hardest hit as healthcare workers were inadequately protected from it. Workers were quarantined after being exposed due to not being told of the dangers, leaving the hospital short staffed in the middle of the epidemic. 

Be glad China is doing what it is doing. 

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7 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

On a side note, I’ve always liked how the city is built. It’s layers of rings is very similar to my hometown (Minneapolis). The wealthiest neighborhoods can be right nextdoor to the poorest. Never been a fan of the wealthy walling themselves off despite being a member of three country clubs the day I was born.

Yeah, hmmm, about that...
Let's just say it would have been nice if it lasted.

5 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

That’s one of the must see things on my list when I go to Europe. I’ve got $5,000 set aside to hopefully spend two months there in the summer of 2021 (theoretically a gift to myself for going back to grad school or law school in the fall of 2021).
Currently looking into how I could maybe teach there too.

I'm one of those guys who would advise everyone to stay the fuck away from Paris. Perhaps spend 10 days there for the mandatory selfies and then find someplace in the countryside where the air is breathable, the people nice, and everything isn't overpriced shite (including the food*).
As to the teaching PM me, depending on what you're looking for, I might be able to help.

*ok that one's exaggerating a bit, there are nice places here and there, just not as many as you'd expect

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2 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

You should both read the Book Underland: A Deep Time Journey by Robert MacFarlane.  It has a long chapter discussing the author's exploration of the Paris Catacombs.

I'll try to remember that. A while back I listened to a NPR podcast (I can try and find it if you want) about spelunking, and it was wild. From getting lost in said catacombs to finding abandoned stuff under NYC, I never realized how fascinating it could be even if I have no interest in doing it (I remember exploring famous deep caves in the US with my parents when I was a kid and the feeling of being so deep beneath the surface was terrifying).

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22 hours ago, Rippounet said:

I'm one of those guys who would advise everyone to stay the fuck away from Paris. Perhaps spend 10 days there for the mandatory selfies and then find someplace in the countryside where the air is breathable, the people nice, and everything isn't overpriced shite (including the food*).

Sorry, TBC, My main plan was to fly to Athens then backpack to Rome. After that I'd fly to France or Germany and roam around for a few weeks, assuming I had money to spare.

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On 1/25/2020 at 4:27 AM, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Did the Chinese government quarantine whole cities for the SARS outbreak?

I don't know exactly the timeline for SARS, but it seems China is being more aggressive in trying to quarantine things this time around. As has been speculated, it's fortunate (if a potential pandemic can ever be considered so) that it has happened in a country where the government can exercise draconian control.

Try telling people in a Western city that they can't leave, that all transport hubs are closed, and that they're not allowed to associate in public places - we'd already have a full-blown pandemic on our hands. Not to mention that it's during Chinese New Year...imagine if this all happened during Thanksgiving in the USA (which is peanuts compared to the human migration of CNY).

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Though one minus about it happening in China is their consistent under reporting and cover up of disease outbreaks, a result of the SNAFU principle.

As I see it, the massive top down lock down measures they are now carrying out seems, given the facts as known, to be a slight over reaction; so far it appears that the only people to have died were already immune compromised by other illnesses. It might be that the Chinese Government:

  •  is still smarting from or just wants to learn the lessons of the SARS outbreak.
  •  is assuming that this outbreak is worse than the people on the ground are reporting and is being over cautious to compensate.
  •  knows something about it that they have not made public. (Incidentally they have apparently announced today that they now believe that people with it are infectious before any symptoms show, which is going to make it far harder to contain.)

 

Edited by A wilding

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7.7 point earthquake, northeast Jamaica, southwest Cuba, rippling down to Miami.  One of the aftershocks was 6.8?  Due to the nature of the quake, a strike, not an uplift, tsunami seems unlikely, thank goodness!  No reported loss of life or injuries.  This happened about 2:30 PM EST US time.

 

 

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On 1/26/2020 at 12:12 PM, A wilding said:

Though one minus about it happening in China is their consistent under reporting and cover up of disease outbreaks, a result of the SNAFU principle.

As I see it, the massive top down lock down measures they are now carrying out seems, given the facts as known, to be a slight over reaction; so far it appears that the only people to have died were already immune compromised by other illnesses. 

I doubt its an over-reaction.  Hopefully we will dodge the bullet yet again, like we did (more or less) with SARS and MERS.  But there is no reason to be complacent.   Already there are many signs that it may end up being a lot worse.

Edited by Platypus Rex

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On 1/24/2020 at 11:20 AM, A True Kaniggit said:

A quick check did reveal that quarantines and shutdown of some public services were used back in 1918.

But what if that was tried in the U.S. today?

I'm not sure what would be the reaction if people were told their city was under quarantine and that they couldn't leave, they couldn't go to the mall, they couldn't go to the movies.

Such a shutdown of free motion would of course be violating peoples rights, but it would also be stopping said hypothetical disease from spreading and killing people.

State of emergency powers in most countries allow for all sorts of rights violations. So if it came down to it I imagine almost every country would have the legal powers in place to shut down shopping malls and other places of mass gatherings. I just hope that legislation also has compensation mechanisms so that people don't have to also cope with having no money because they haven't been allowed to go to work for an extended period of time.

21 minutes ago, Zorral said:

7.7 point earthquake, northeast Jamaica, southwest Cuba, rippling down to Miami.  One of the aftershocks was 6.8?  Due to the nature of the quake, a strike, not an uplift, tsunami seems unlikely, thank goodness!  No reported loss of life or injuries.  This happened about 2:30 PM EST US time.

 

 

Thanks for the update. I'd read that there was a tsunami warning abut hadn't read any update on it. I assumed no news was good news, since an actual tsunami causing any substantial damage would be plastered over the news, but good to have some definitive info.

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So the Trump administration released their Israel/Palestine peace plan today, it seems to DOA, which is good since it's a pretty terrible plan, the Palestinians weren't involved at all and Abbas has rejected it. Bibi and Gantz both like it. Netanyahu was also formally indicted today after losing his immunity to prosecution.

Edited by dornishpen

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9 minutes ago, dornishpen said:

So the Trump administration released their Israel/Palestine peace plan today, it seems to DOA, which is good since it's a pretty terrible plan, the Palestinians weren't involved at all and Abbas has rejected it. Bibi and Gantz both like it. Netanyahu was also formally indicted today after losing his immunity to prosecution.

Woo.

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Such a load of bullshit promoting something as peace plan that has not involved any discussions as all with one side of the problem. The proper name for a unilateral peace plan is a pacification plan. Even that word is being extremely charitable.

I can understand how people of limited intellect can conflate the two words, they both start with "p" after all.

Edited by The Anti-Targ

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I don't think this plan would pacify anything. Anyway since the Palestinians rejected it it's a non-starter. It's a terrible plan.

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8 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

State of emergency powers in most countries allow for all sorts of rights violations. So if it came down to it I imagine almost every country would have the legal powers in place to shut down shopping malls and other places of mass gatherings.

For the sake of discussion... I don't know if "violations" is the best word. A deadly epidemic is one of the few cases where it's almost universally recognized that the common good trumps individual rights. It's a good starting point to think about the famous theory of "natural rights" we hear so much about.

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