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What will happen to Stannis in next book


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21 hours ago, Elegant Woes said:

Stannis will lose the batttle for Winterfell. I have no prove for this, beyond the fact that him winning against Ramsay means that the Starks will be secondary characters in their own tale. I mean where is the triumph in that? Reclaiming Winterfell should be done by Stark main characters, not an outsider like Stannis. 

The factions inside Winterfell could try and wrestle the castle away from the Boltons, and even if Winterfell falls to them, it doesn't mean we're done with Roose or Ramsay. 

There's some good foreshadowing in ADwD of a fight between Ramsay's bitches and the direwolves.

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1 hour ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

The factions inside Winterfell could try and wrestle the castle away from the Boltons, and even if Winterfell falls to them, it doesn't mean we're done with Roose or Ramsay. 

There's some good foreshadowing in ADwD of a fight between Ramsay's bitches and the direwolves.

And the George told the show-runners to keep that in mind while planning out their show (which they ultimately did nothing with).

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Speaking of Direwolves vs Dogs foreshadowing. In Jon's very first chapter a black dog tries to pick a fight with Ghost. I would say that this is a foreshadow of a fight between Jon and Ramsay taking place. A battle between Bastards. Now that's one I would love to see. 

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4 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

The factions inside Winterfell could try and wrestle the castle away from the Boltons, and even if Winterfell falls to them, it doesn't mean we're done with Roose or Ramsay. 

There's some good foreshadowing in ADwD of a fight between Ramsay's bitches and the direwolves.

I agree.

This is why I think Ramsay will survive The Winds of Winter and will live on to menace the Starks and the rest of the North in A Dream of Spring.

I also think that Davos and Rickon (or maybe just Rickon) will be a prisoner of the Dreadfort and that Arya will actually get to meet her proxy-husband and/or his father, Lord Bolton

Whichever Bolton survives Winds, I expect them to cause problems for the Starks (perhaps even killing Rickon), maybe try to strike a deal with the Others in Dream before being cut down by Arya.

Since I think Jon will be mostly busy with Daenerys, Aegon, Tyrion and other southern players in Dream, I think it will be mainly Sansa, Arya, Bran and maybe Theon who will be having to deal with the Lord of the Dreadfort.

Back on topic though....

I think Stannis will win the battle (or rather survive) but I think Stannis is doomed either way. Sansa and the Valemen will show up at some point to pull the rug out from under him, Aegon has already been confirmed to take Storm's End, Dragonstone has already fallen (but to whom...?), Shireen and Selyse will die at some point and then Jon and/or Bran will show up at some point after.

Stannis will be so low on men, morale, support and supplies that he'll be forced to retreat like he did back in A Clash of Kings. Except he will fall back on the Nightfort instead of Dragonstone and he will be mostly alone. Long story short (it's a little tinfoily) … I think Stannis is going to become an Other and will be the face of the Others' invasion of Westeros. I think he will be slayed at Brienne or Daenerys or, you know, both at some point. If Brienne kills him, it'll be at the Nightfort before he is then resurrected and converted (I think the Black Gate at the Nightfort is going to be super important to the Others). If Daenerys kills him, it'll be a twisty retelling of Robert vs. Rhaegar on the banks of the Trident.

I used to think Stannis was not going to survive Winds. Now, I think he'll present quite the problem long after Dream has begun.

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6 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

There were actually lots of people talking about that lake being punched full of holes, all sort of at the same time. I know Cantuse elaborated a whole theory around it, but the lake being used as a trap was widely discussed, and by many people. 

I know, :)and BryndenBFish was in the thick of it, as he is also one of the people who wrote essays on Stannis' military expertise and that he's not as rigid as many readers suppose. There was however a lot of discussion at the time of naysayers claiming that Freys surely would realize they're riding onto ice instead of land, and therefore never explore far onto it, not enough to have them nearly all destroyed. Cantuse's work dealt with such arguments thoroughly.

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On 1/9/2020 at 12:34 PM, kissdbyfire said:

There were actually lots of people talking about that lake being punched full of holes, all sort of at the same time. I know Cantuse elaborated a whole theory around it, but the lake being used as a trap was widely discussed, and by many people. 

Yeah, I think this drew the attention of many as they read, including myself. It is interesting reading the similar takes on the idea. 

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23 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I know, :)and BryndenBFish was in the thick of it, as he is also one of the people who wrote essays on Stannis' military expertise and that he's not as rigid as many readers suppose. There was however a lot of discussion at the time of naysayers claiming that Freys surely would realize they're riding onto ice instead of land, and therefore never explore far onto it, not enough to have them nearly all destroyed. Cantuse's work dealt with such arguments thoroughly.

Pah! to the naysayers. GRRM paid a lot of attention to the ice being weak, no more fish *, and the maps/direction of the village, tower and Winterfell. I mean, come  on :lol:

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It was not that long ago, certainly within 5 years, that GRRM said he was inspired to change the course of a major character whose fate impacted I think 4 other characters.  I liked Stannis for this fate change a lot.   I think we all expect Stannis to die.   This is what's happened to all 5 original kings except Stannis.   No one really expects the North to support Stannis in any meaningful way under any circumstances...but what if we're wrong?  Stannis has both heirs to the Iron Islands as well as (Jeyne Poole) Arya and the backing of the Iron Bank.  Seems to me that Stannis has a great deal of support here and it should not be underestimated.   In Theon 1 (TWOW) we get a glimpse at the legendary commander who beat the Iron Islands back and withstood a very long siege.   His iron will has been demonstrated time and time again.   He hasn't got the relatively new counsel of either Davos or Melisandre.   He's somewhat sequestered in the Crofters Village as Asha reports he's off gazing into his fires frequently.   Essentially, I think he's on his own here.  The only thing I'm unsure about is whether he's actually seeing anything in the fires or if this is how he blows Mel off.  He wouldn't need to blow Mel off without her present and his competence as a commander independent of Mel is well established.   True, he is a bit of a fish out of water, but he's aware of how valuable Theon and Asha are to him and the North.  I believe he's about to finish the Karstarks off, likely gaining the support of Alyce and her Thenns.  They are not particularly close enough to get to Stannis in time to help with the attack on Winterfell, but they may be useful to Stannis afterward.   The Bolton forces are likely to lose their Freys and many Manderleys in the 1st strike against Stannis.   The Umbers present are likely to be severely diminished as well as many of Stannis own troops.  It is the key players in this that interests me...What of Roose and Ramsay and Wyman and Mance?  Will Asha be given some agency to lead her own (tiny) forces for Stannis?  She certainly seems willing to try.  What part will Theon actually play in foiling the Boltons?   Surely he is the key to accessing Winterfell for the final attack.  No, I don't see Stannis dying right away.   I see a lot of reduction in forces on all sides and perhaps a rally around some victor, be it Stannis or Rickon or both.  I think Rickon is crucial to Stannis' original plan to install Jon as the Lord of Winterfell and I think there is a lot more story to Stannis after the Battle of Ice.   The others are coming eventually and Stannis has declared himself savior of the realm.  He will live to fight the Others.   

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I totally agree with @Curled Finger's point about Stannis being without his advizors and how this is most likely to bring the best out of him, strategy wise.

In Davos' chapter of the battle of the Blackwater, we learn that Stannis made mistakes in who he gave command to this ship or that, or even command of the fleet. After Renly's death, Stannis has it all: fleet, horse, men. He had the numbers, and despite the mistakes made by his appointed fleet commander and the losses caused by Tyrion's trick with the boom and Cersei's idea to use wildfire, he stil managed to get his numbers at the walls of KL. If Tywin and the Tyrells hadn't shown up, KL would have fallen to Stannis... at a great cost of lives, but he would have won.

Anyhow, he relied on numbers to attack KL and to get the numbers he had to please uptrumped lords who were more in it for themselves and of questionable loyalty and who had little to no tactical insight by giving them commanding positions (you know the Mace Tyrell-types), which led to losses of livesof men who would have continued to fight rather than break otherwise.

After the battle of the Blackwater he may have lost a great number of lords and knights who switched sides AGAIN (from Renly to Stannis to Lannisters), but they were never truly HIS men anyway. He goes North at least with those who are indeed loyal to him, no matter what. Without Mel and without Davos, he's forced to fall back mostly on his own mind and wit. And it's a good thing.

After all, what was his main incentive to resort to sorcery to kill Renly? Mel's vision that she saw Stannis lose to Renly. Except, it wasn't Renly, but Garlan in Renly's armor. Without her vision, Stannis might have used an entirely different tactic and strategy. And while Davos is an admirable Hand when it comes to advice on what is right and wrong, he's not a good military commander on land.

Basically, George made it so that both Davos and Stannis are back in their positions during Robert's Rebellion: Stannis has to hold out, while his men are starving, against a bigger but foolish force; meanwhile Davos was first reduced back to finding allies for Stannis as he did early on in aCoK, and now a smuggler.

And we can see that Stannis is catching on. Massey and Horpe represent the two types of men he has at his disposal. Massey might be loyal, but he's vain, always seeking ooprotunity to gain a castle and status. He fights for "glory" in the belief that glory will get him a castle and status in reward. Horpe though fights because he loves to fight. Suggs is another such man. They're pros so to speak. And it is Massey that Stannis sends off to Castle Black and Braavos, while he keeps Suggs and Horpe by his fighting side, along with the Northeners who are also willing to die, not just for glory, but because they believe dying while fighting for a cause is better than dying outside on some mountain path. (BTW while Stannis doesn't know it yet, Manderly also acts with the same motive: he doesn't expect to survive, but he'll take down as many enemies he can with him)

It's a survival of the fittest, not physically, but mentally... to those who will "weather" any circumstance and survive or die taking an exponential number of enemies with them. It was so at Storm's End during Robert's Rebellion. It is so again at the Crofter's village.

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