NFL Playoffs: Hindsight Is 20/20 For Bad Coaching Decisions

[Maithanet]

2 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

I don't think anyone will outduel Mahomes, but I do think that he'll be a bigger factor in the win. And in that aforementioned win, while Henry ran for a ton Tannehill was basically instrumental in getting big plays, right? 

I didn't see the game, but I assume so.  My point is just that I'm skeptical that a mixing more Tannehill into the game plan is going to help the Titans win.  The Chiefs defense isn't great, but they are getting healthy and playing their best ball now.  They did a respectable job against Watson and Hopkins - 17 points for the day not counting the two special teams TDs KC gave away. 

[Jaime L]

31 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I think that Henry is more just the face of the Titans win streak, rather than the actual cause.  Henry ran all over the Patriots and they still only scored 14 points, and needed the Titans defense to pitch a second half shutout to preserve the win.  Henry ran for almost 200 yards against the Ravens, but the Titans won because the defense got 3 turnovers, 4 stops of 4th down and handed the offense a bunch of short fields.  That is both unsustainable and very much not in Henry's control.  I would even go so far as to say that in BOTH the playoff wins there was a single dropped pass (Edelman in the 4th, Mark Andrews tipped int), that if caught, the Titans probably lose the game. 

I'm not saying Henry isn't a big part of them winning, but that's because the Titans have built an offense around feeding him the ball.  I think if you substitute any other top 5 back in Henry's spot and the result is more or less the same. 

I think if the Titans played the Ravens 10 times the Titans win no more than two of them.  Possibly only one.  But they only play once, and the Titans won it. 

He's definitely getting extra attention as the face of the Titans because of his size, freakishness and immaculate style. But while this is a team effort, he's legit doing John Riggins shit out there on equally heavy workloads. 

Forgot the precise stat, but he's largely doing this against 8 man boxes. Titans can't block everyone the defense is throwing at Henry and he's still gashing them. As Kal said the whole goal is to shorten the game against superior competition and Henry's freakishness allows them to do this even against 8 men boxes, even as they go 70/30 rushing/passing splits. 

Yeah maybe another top 5 RB could do this but it's not something I'm remotely positive of. Not sure who would be able to match 30+ carries, 180+ yards in 3 straight games, all must-wins. A smaller back would slow (or break) down or get stuffed too often to make this work. Feels like it takes the absolute perfect defense to keep Henry from falling forward for 5.  

[Kalbear]

Huh. Looking at DVOA I might be partially right. KC's defense is good against the pass (6th) and atrocious against the run (29th). The Titans are good against the run (10th) and bad against the pass (21st). So the TItans probably will lean on Henry quite a bit, but they'll also likely not be able to do as well at stopping Mahomes as they would Brady or Jackson. 

[Maithanet]

14 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Huh. Looking at DVOA I might be partially right. KC's defense is good against the pass (6th) and atrocious against the run (29th). The Titans are good against the run (10th) and bad against the pass (21st). So the TItans probably will lean on Henry quite a bit, but they'll also likely not be able to do as well at stopping Mahomes as they would Brady or Jackson. 

Henry is very likely to have another 150+ yard game.  The question is just whether you can score enough points with Henry to keep up with Mahomes.  I'm fairly sure that you cannot, but we'll find out. 

[Jaime L]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Henry is very likely to have another 150+ yard game.  The question is just whether you can score enough points with Henry to keep up with Mahomes.  I'm fairly sure that you cannot, but we'll find out. 

 

[aceluby]

I think people are really underestimating Tannehill here, guy has a 117 passer rating for the season.  His postseason has been lackluster mainly because of the game flow more than anything, but he's shown time and time again that he can beat teams, especially with teams stacking the box to beat Henry and AJ Brown in single coverage against much smaller guys.

[l2 0 5 5]

Read through the prior pages and didn't see anything on Cowher getting the HoF nod from the Mountain That Walks. I don't think he belongs, tbh. One SB win, one SB lost, 149 career wins, and .623 win pct. An excellent career, no doubt, but I feel like there's a number of other guys that have similar stats, and this is only going to set a precedent for them to get in. Off the top of my head there's Dungy, Sean Peyton, Vermeil, Pete Carroll, and Tomlin is already on Cowher's doorstep (just 16 fewer wins, higher win pct). Off stats, which what else are you judging this off of, McCarthy is 24 wins off, and surely he can reach 149 with a handful of mediocre seasons with the Cowboys. Once again, awesome numbers, but is that hof worthy? I think the chasm between hof worthy and good-great is shrinking. I also think the hof wants to make the enshrinement ceremony a spectacle every year. I get that. It's once a year and they want fans to visit and what better way to do that then to nominate as many players/coaches as possible. Not going to get the same turnout with 2 nominations. 

Also, and I say this semi-seriously, congrats to @Mexal and @Nictarion on Joe Burrow. 

[briantw]

Luke Kuechly retires at 28.  Crazy.  

[Jaime L]

3 hours ago, l2 0 5 5 said:

Read through the prior pages and didn't see anything on Cowher getting the HoF nod from the Mountain That Walks. I don't think he belongs, tbh. One SB win, one SB lost, 149 career wins, and .623 win pct. An excellent career, no doubt, but I feel like there's a number of other guys that have similar stats, and this is only going to set a precedent for them to get in. Off the top of my head there's Dungy, Sean Peyton, Vermeil, Pete Carroll, and Tomlin is already on Cowher's doorstep (just 16 fewer wins, higher win pct). Off stats, which what else are you judging this off of, McCarthy is 24 wins off, and surely he can reach 149 with a handful of mediocre seasons with the Cowboys. Once again, awesome numbers, but is that hof worthy? I think the chasm between hof worthy and good-great is shrinking. I also think the hof wants to make the enshrinement ceremony a spectacle every year. I get that. It's once a year and they want fans to visit and what better way to do that then to nominate as many players/coaches as possible. Not going to get the same turnout with 2 nominations. 

Also, and I say this semi-seriously, congrats to @Mexal and @Nictarion on Joe Burrow. 

Yeah, Cowher was a good coach but he was like Schottenheimer or Reid,. would consistently win a ton in the regular season but was defined by his postseason failures for his whole coaching career... until pulling out an unexpected SB win at the tail end in 2005. Jake Plummer did him a solid by beating the Pats for him. And you're right, that gives him a near identical case to Dungy, Payton, Vermeil, Carroll and Tomlin. Amazing all those guys had their hearts ripped out by Belichick (except Payton.) Hard to say why any of them should be out now if he's in. I'd put Schottenheimer in above all those guys, BTW. 

Very happy for the board's long suffering Bengals fans. Burrow looks like the safest bet since Luck. 

 

[DMC]

25 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

Burrow looks like the safest bet since Luck. 

Famous last words.

[Maithanet]

1 minute ago, Triskele said:

And lightyears cooler than Luck to boot.

How could you say that?  Burrow didn't even fight in the civil war.

[Rhom]

10 hours ago, Maithanet said:

How could you say that?  Burrow didn't even fight in the civil war.

Is that account still doing anything?

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

13 hours ago, briantw said:

Luke Kuechly retires at 28.  Crazy.  

He’s just listening to Lynch’s advice. Gotta take care of your mentals.

[grozeng]

Sorry if this has been posted already but I have been away for the board for a bit.

I just heard Belicheck hired AJ Hinch as the Pats, new Special Teams Coach.  Said they need more people like him around and he understands the "Patriot's Way" and shares the Patriot's values.

 

(is this too soon)

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

I can't believe you heathens let this thread fall to the second page on the eve of Conference Championship weekend.

Anyways, I got the Titans and the Niners. I hope I'm wrong on both picks.

[DireWolfSpirit]

I don't think there's anything unclear or muddled about A.Rodgers legacy,  he's first ballot Canton inductee period.

9 hours ago, Triskele said:

Rodgers and his sort of unclear legacy

Anyone that has tricked themselves into believing Aaron isn't up to another SB run because he's now in his late 30's, should remember he's threw 51 tds with only 6 interceptions over these last two seasons and is still capable of precision passes, two minute offense and can put a pass any where needed and as far downfield as his receivers can muster themselves open.

I will not be surprised at all if A.Rodgers pulls an Elwayesque feat and leads these Packers to another SB win like the ALLTIMER he clearly is.

NFL records

• 102.4 passer rating, career
• 122.5 passer rating, season (2011)
• 4.33:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, career
• 1.5 lowest interception percentage, career
• 0.3 lowest interception percentage, season (2018)
• 402 consecutive passes without an interception

[DanteGabriel]

Rodgers is an all timer, but if he leads the Packers to the Super Bowl it'll be more like First Act Elway where he almost singlehandedly dragged an inferior roster over the hump with athleticism and playmaking. Not like Second Act Elway, efficiently running an offense built around rushing. Rodgers will have to be the best player on the field and go into hero mode to beat the Niners (unless the Niners fuck up a lot).

[DireWolfSpirit]

4 hours ago, Triskele said:

No doubt about the HOF.  I think where the legacy gets a bit weird or unconventional is people trying to reconcile only one SB appearance with "I swear that's the best QB I've seen with my eyes" or however one puts it.  

I'm saying I believe it's soon to be two SB appearances. 

[The Mother of The Others]

After their win last week the Niners sent their cheerleaders out to distract the TV audience.   It's the sort of thing I ask for more of during the regular season.  Better to see them than constant replays of the play I just watched, for sure.  But in the post season?   Dazzling us with cheerleaders indicates they didn't want people asking them about the Green Bay matchup.  It showed their lack of confidence going against a team they dismantled earlier in the season, which is easy to understand.  Beating the crap out of someone is a bad omen.  Obviously The Pack were holding back in that loss, too, purposely not giving the Niners a look at any of their good stuff, all to give themselves an edge tomorrow.  Because Rogers sees all the way down the field- - months into the future- - and takes it all into consideration before throwing an incompletion.

[Maithanet]

I watched the kc-ten highlights from thier regular season game.  Two things stood out:

- The Titans were the luckier team.  The Chiefs had some weird special teams miscues late, kc dropped an easy int that might have been 6, and the Titans got a very good fumble bounce which allowed a 50 yard fumble return td.

- However, their offense didn't start really leaning on Henry until the second half.  Once they did that, the game was much more competitive.  They won't make that mistake in the playoffs.