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CassDarry

Which Targaryen ploy would work?

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Out of the three Return to the Iron Throne plots for the Targaryens, If they all actually came into play which one would succeed? 

Viserys, Arianne, Doran and Dorne.

Daenerys, Dragons, Dothraki and Unsullied.

Aegon, Connington and The Golden Company.

To make all three factions happen, I would say after Jorah stop Viserys stealing the Dragon Eggs he left instead of getting drunk and threatening Dany and Drogo.

Some how Doran gets him to Dorne and that should let Dany get her armies. 

Also Varys knows 2 of the plots at least so who would he side with?

Which one would end up on the Iron Throne it any? 

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Without dragons?? Whomever faced a wrecked Westeros,  as it happened it was Young G. 

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The premise of the scenario is faulty. All three possibilities have their foundations with Varys and Illiryo advancing a Targaryen restoration. It was a single plot, with three possible candidates to them. They're not going to simultaneously advance all three pretenders. It would conflict with their goals.

While they began planning with (f)Aegon early on, once Viserys and Daenerys presented themselves, they were scooped up as more viable candidates with birthrights less open to questioning. When Viserys died, they tried to bring Dany back into their influence, but she effectively escaped their influence/control when she got bogged down in Mereen. Thus they went back to the original plan with (f)Aegon.

If you ask which of the three scenarios, each in a self contained universe, would be most likely to succeed, that would be a different question. Viserys is his own worst enemy, and never showed any sign of being able to overcome that, even with all the help in the world. Dany is possible, though she hasn't been able to untangle herself from Mereen and is quickly losing control of his situation. (F)Aegon is off to a great start, already managing to raise the dragon banner in Westeros, but he may well have bitten off more than he can chew. 

As things stand now, I think (f)Aegon is most likely of the three to get on the Iron Throne, given he's striking when the Lannister regime is in a vulnerable state. If he's able to keep it for long, is another question entirely though.

Edited by Lord Lannister

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I think it depends on if Aegon is legitimate or not.

Obviously it's a pretty accepted theory at this point that Aegon is a false dragon, or possibly a Blackfyre or some other form of bastard/dragonseed/ect.

But presuming that the Pisswater Prince actually existed and there was indeed a baby switch and this can be proven, I think Aegon wins. Dorne might initially back Viserys married to Arianne, but I think that they'd collapse that plot the moment Aegon revealed himself. They're motivated by a desire for revenge and to take back the Throne for Elia, they're not going to try to dethrone her son if he lives, they'd offer their troops to him. Then between the Golden Company and Dorne's untouched armies, they'd take the throne from the exhausted Lannister and bruised Tyrells.

Daenerys is a threat, but I think she's rational enough that if she came to Westeros and saw Aegon on the throne (supported by his Dornish kin who all acknowledge him as Elia's legitimate son) she'd cut her losses and marry him.

If Aegon isn't legitimate, then Daenerys wins.

Viserys isn't even a contender, at most he'd survive just long enough to get a few sons on Arianne and then he'd be thrown from the ramparts. He's simply too incompetent to get anywhere on his own and too crazed to be put up with by men with actual power.

Aegon has a strong start, but what'll end up happening is that he'll founder without the support of any of the Great Houses. Dorne won't support him stealing Elia's name, and the rest of Westeros are tied up supporting other non-Targ claimants. He'd serve to grind down the Lannister/Tyrells a bit more and clear the way for when Dany lands.

Daenerys walks onto the stage late after the other claimants have made a mess of things. f!Aegon would be gone by the time she shows up, and while Viserys might have a few children leftover that's not enough to contend with dragons. Dorne could cause problems for her, but she could get around that by simply claiming to be barren and taking one of Arianne's children as her heirs. That would appease the Dornish pretty neatly.

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3 hours ago, CassDarry said:

Out of the three Return to the Iron Throne plots for the Targaryens, If they all actually came into play which one would succeed? 

Viserys, Arianne, Doran and Dorne.

Daenerys, Dragons, Dothraki and Unsullied.

Aegon, Connington and The Golden Company.

To make all three factions happen, I would say after Jorah stop Viserys stealing the Dragon Eggs he left instead of getting drunk and threatening Dany and Drogo.

Some how Doran gets him to Dorne and that should let Dany get her armies. 

Also Varys knows 2 of the plots at least so who would he side with?

Which one would end up on the Iron Throne it any? 

#1 Could work.  King Viserys, Third of His Name, will have the support of Khal Drogo and his Dothraki.  The Martells will fall in line, as well as the Tyrells and the Greyjoys.

#2 Would work very nicely.  Queen Daenerys will have no need of assistance from within Westeros to take the throne in this scenario.  Ironically, this scenario will guarantee her the support of at least half or more of the lords of Westeros.  The dragons will prove her identity as the Targaryen.  Just about all the Starks, Tully, Arryn, and Baratheon bannermen will flock to the dragon banner.  It's a chance for a promotion after all. 

#3 Is a longest of the longshot.  This is not enough support for Aegon to take the iron throne and keep it.  He will win a few surprise victories but he doesn't have enough on his side.  Doran will need to die for this risky plot to proceed.

Queen Daenerys will have no need of the Dornish army. 

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On ‎1‎/‎12‎/‎2020 at 6:47 PM, Lord Lannister said:

The premise of the scenario is faulty. All three possibilities have their foundations with Varys and Illiryo advancing a Targaryen restoration. It was a single plot, with three possible candidates to them. They're not going to simultaneously advance all three pretenders. It would conflict with their goals.

While they began planning with (f)Aegon early on, once Viserys and Daenerys presented themselves, they were scooped up as more viable candidates with birthrights less open to questioning. When Viserys died, they tried to bring Dany back into their influence, but she effectively escaped their influence/control when she got bogged down in Mereen. Thus they went back to the original plan with (f)Aegon.

If you ask which of the three scenarios, each in a self contained universe, would be most likely to succeed, that would be a different question. Viserys is his own worst enemy, and never showed any sign of being able to overcome that, even with all the help in the world. Dany is possible, though she hasn't been able to untangle herself from Mereen and is quickly losing control of his situation. (F)Aegon is off to a great start, already managing to raise the dragon banner in Westeros, but he may well have bitten off more than he can chew. 

As things stand now, I think (f)Aegon is most likely of the three to get on the Iron Throne, given he's striking when the Lannister regime is in a vulnerable state. If he's able to keep it for long, is another question entirely though.

Viserys and Dorne has no involvement from Varys or Illyrio which we know of yet?

And if Daenerys has escaped Illyrio and Varys's influence/control she may still try to lay claim to the Iron Throne as she still has the Dragons regardless if a (disputed) Aegon or an (unfit I her opinion) Viserys are tying to sit on it or are.

 

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On ‎1‎/‎12‎/‎2020 at 8:17 PM, The Jingo said:

I think it depends on if Aegon is legitimate or not.

Obviously it's a pretty accepted theory at this point that Aegon is a false dragon, or possibly a Blackfyre or some other form of bastard/dragonseed/ect.

But presuming that the Pisswater Prince actually existed and there was indeed a baby switch and this can be proven, I think Aegon wins. Dorne might initially back Viserys married to Arianne, but I think that they'd collapse that plot the moment Aegon revealed himself. They're motivated by a desire for revenge and to take back the Throne for Elia, they're not going to try to dethrone her son if he lives, they'd offer their troops to him. Then between the Golden Company and Dorne's untouched armies, they'd take the throne from the exhausted Lannister and bruised Tyrells.

Daenerys is a threat, but I think she's rational enough that if she came to Westeros and saw Aegon on the throne (supported by his Dornish kin who all acknowledge him as Elia's legitimate son) she'd cut her losses and marry him.

If Aegon isn't legitimate, then Daenerys wins.

Viserys isn't even a contender, at most he'd survive just long enough to get a few sons on Arianne and then he'd be thrown from the ramparts. He's simply too incompetent to get anywhere on his own and too crazed to be put up with by men with actual power.

Aegon has a strong start, but what'll end up happening is that he'll founder without the support of any of the Great Houses. Dorne won't support him stealing Elia's name, and the rest of Westeros are tied up supporting other non-Targ claimants. He'd serve to grind down the Lannister/Tyrells a bit more and clear the way for when Dany lands.

Daenerys walks onto the stage late after the other claimants have made a mess of things. f!Aegon would be gone by the time she shows up, and while Viserys might have a few children leftover that's not enough to contend with dragons. Dorne could cause problems for her, but she could get around that by simply claiming to be barren and taking one of Arianne's children as her heirs. That would appease the Dornish pretty neatly.

I'm working under the impression Aegon is who he says he is in this case even if I don't believe he will turn out to be. Even if I still don't see Visery's conceding Dorne to Aegon, maybe they could arrange an alliance?

Do you not think Doran will be able to control Visery's? He might be able to teach him to be better? Use him as a figure head while Arianne actually rules?

Would coming late be advantageous for Dany with her foreign armies? What if Aegon was still on throne? Pretender or Not the smallfolk and Westeros will still have believers.

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6 hours ago, CassDarry said:

I'm working under the impression Aegon is who he says he is in this case even if I don't believe he will turn out to be. Even if I still don't see Visery's conceding Dorne to Aegon, maybe they could arrange an alliance?

Do you not think Doran will be able to control Visery's? He might be able to teach him to be better? Use him as a figure head while Arianne actually rules?

Would coming late be advantageous for Dany with her foreign armies? What if Aegon was still on throne? Pretender or Not the smallfolk and Westeros will still have believers.

Viserys' opinion is irrelevant. If Aegon is who he says he is, and Doran wants to put Elia's blood on the Throne, then they will do it. And that's exactly what I think Dorne would do. It doesn't seem in either Doran's or Oberyn's character to murder Elia's son just to put Arianne on the throne. Not when Elia and her children's murder in the first place is what motivates the grudge, and not when it functionally would make no difference (A pure Targaryen with a Martell wife or a half-Martell ruling directly - in both cases the monarch is still named Targaryen, but siding with Viserys requires they become kinslayers).

Viserys can scream his head off all he likes but he has no money, no army, and no connections. He'll either put a lid or it or the Martells will kill him.

Daenerys has to come as early as possible. She's a woman competing with two male claimants (a difficult scenario in the best of times) for the Iron Throne (the Westerosi hate the idea of a female ruling monarch since Rhaenyra and the Dance). The longer she waits, the greater the chance that Viserys/Aegon will win the minds and hearts of the people.

Aegon if legitimate has it quite easy, since regardless of what Robert says Rhaegar and Elia were both well-loved. He would also if legit have first claim on the spears of Dorne, as well as the service of any of the other Targaryen loyalists that weren't purged.

This also doesn't take into account that even if all other factors were equal, Aegon marches at the head of relatively respectable Dornishmen and the famously professional Golden Company. Daenerys comes with a horde of raping Dothraki savages, a few thousand Eunuchs she literally purchased (even if she says she 'freed' them), and a whole host of other sorcerers, perverts, heathens, and various degenerates from the armpits of Essos.

Her optics are exponentially worse than his on all fronts. Literally the only advantage she has is her dragons.

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On 1/15/2020 at 3:32 AM, The Jingo said:

Viserys can scream his head off all he likes but he has no money, no army, and no connections. He'll either put a lid or it or the Martells will kill him.

 

If Viserys puts “a lid on it” What role do you see him have, peacefully? Presumably he’ll be heir to begin with, would he be a Prince of Dragonstone? And if Aegon has a son? What would he be then?

If he doesn’t put a lid on it, Do you not think he could cause enough doubt over Aegon being legitimate? And if Dorne agree Connington is just using a Dragon Seed with sell swords would they fight or try to make a deal?

 

Do you see any way Aegon and Viserys co-exist or does one have to die?

 

Do you see three of them able o form an alliance? E.g. Dany married Aegon and name Viserys and Arianne children as heirs? Potentially 3 dragon riders? 

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On 1/15/2020 at 3:32 AM, The Jingo said:

Daenerys comes with a horde of raping Dothraki savages, a few thousand Eunuchs she literally purchased (even if she says she 'freed' them), and a whole host of other sorcerers, perverts, heathens, and various degenerates from the armpits of Essos.

Funniest assessment of Dany’s Army I’ve ever read haha

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On 1/12/2020 at 12:46 PM, CassDarry said:

Out of the three Return to the Iron Throne plots for the Targaryens, If they all actually came into play which one would succeed? 

Viserys, Arianne, Doran and Dorne.

Daenerys, Dragons, Dothraki and Unsullied.

Aegon, Connington and The Golden Company.

To make all three factions happen, I would say after Jorah stop Viserys stealing the Dragon Eggs he left instead of getting drunk and threatening Dany and Drogo.

Some how Doran gets him to Dorne and that should let Dany get her armies. 

Also Varys knows 2 of the plots at least so who would he side with?

Which one would end up on the Iron Throne it any? 

Daenerys + Dragons + Dothraki + Unsullied = Awesome

This plot has the greatest chance. Best for Daenerys to wait and let the Others do the work of thinning the opposition. Arrive in Spring and she will only have to deal with the Starks who sided with the Others.  

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On 1/15/2020 at 12:32 AM, The Jingo said:

Daenerys comes with a horde of raping Dothraki savages, a few thousand Eunuchs she literally purchased (even if she says she 'freed' them), and a whole host of other sorcerers, perverts, heathens, and various degenerates from the armpits of Essos.

:lmao:  That was a hilarious description, think it was a rip off, not a purchase

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On 1/12/2020 at 11:46 AM, CassDarry said:

Out of the three Return to the Iron Throne plots for the Targaryens, If they all actually came into play which one would succeed? 

Viserys, Arianne, Doran and Dorne.

Daenerys, Dragons, Dothraki and Unsullied.

Aegon, Connington and The Golden Company.

To make all three factions happen, I would say after Jorah stop Viserys stealing the Dragon Eggs he left instead of getting drunk and threatening Dany and Drogo.

Some how Doran gets him to Dorne and that should let Dany get her armies. 

Also Varys knows 2 of the plots at least so who would he side with?

Which one would end up on the Iron Throne it any? 

Aegon/Connington have the best chance with the information we have been given. They have an army, are starting to court allies, and Aegon has the birthright if he truly is who he thinks he is. On top of that he has been trained from a young age to rule and be just. 

Daeny comes in second for me on this scenario, even if she has the highest ceiling due to her dragons. Only because she has to free herself from the Dothraki, consolidate power, and then decide to go all the way to Westeros. All of which she hasn't done yet on page, hence the #2 ranking here. 

Viserys never has a chance. Even if he were the only Targ left and he makes it to Dorne I don't see him inspiring enough loyalty and respect to come close to being the leader of a Dorne-ish backed alliance, let alone a leader of any army. I feel his hubris and ego would constantly get in the way of his larger goals of ruling. Viserys is very punchable and I think the people of Westeros would agree if they got a feel for him. 

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10 hours ago, CassDarry said:

 

If Viserys puts “a lid on it” What role do you see him have, peacefully? Presumably he’ll be heir to begin with, would he be a Prince of Dragonstone? And if Aegon has a son? What would he be then?

If he doesn’t put a lid on it, Do you not think he could cause enough doubt over Aegon being legitimate? And if Dorne agree Connington is just using a Dragon Seed with sell swords would they fight or try to make a deal?

 

Do you see any way Aegon and Viserys co-exist or does one have to die?

 

Do you see three of them able o form an alliance? E.g. Dany married Aegon and name Viserys and Arianne children as heirs? Potentially 3 dragon riders? 

I think that Dornish support of Aegon would be enough to act as proof of his legitimacy, especially when the Dornish have in their possession the other male line heir of the dynasty. The very simple fact is that it doesn't seem like any lord would seriously consider doing something like bypassing the possibility of putting their own blood on the throne in order to hand it over to a bastard that is besmirching the sacrifices of a beloved sister. Supporting Aegon only makes sense for Dorne to do if he's either actually Elia's son, or else they make him marry a Martell.

As for Viserys, if he went around screaming he's the king then he'd just get locked up in a Maidenvault type place until Arianne gets a few children from him and then he'd die in his sleep or something.

If Dorne feel that Connington is just using a dragonseed they'd speak to Connington and gain his allegiance. Jon loved Rhaegar. Why would he pass up on supporting Rhaegar's own brother or sister by blood just to put a bastard on the Iron Throne? No, Jon must believe that Aegon is actually Rhaegar's son. If the Dorne can tell that Aegon is just a dragonseed then they'd try to convince Joncon of that.

Aegon and Viserys can coexist as long as one steps aside for the other. If Aegon is legitimate then Dorne would make Viserys step aside, and it's up to Viserys how graceful he'd be about that.

An alliance is predicated on Egg being legitimate. If he wasn't, the Dornish would find a way to kill him for the insult to Elia. If he was legit, Viserys would be his heir but only after Aegon's eventual sons. There's no reason to disinherit Aegon's sons in exchange for Viserys and his line. That just introduces stability in order to put the Martell blood Aegon already has on the throne. Dany is also a wildcard but she might be willing to swallow her pride to marry Aegon.

The final setup would probably be something like Aegon marries Daenerys, his sons are his heirs in the usual fashion. His firstborn daughter is married to the firstborn son of Viserys and Arianne. If Aegon dies without sons of his own the throne passes to Viserys and his sons. They may also decide to betroth a daughter of Viserys and Arianne to Aegon's son to appeal to Viserys' pride and strengthen the Dornish blood in the crown, but this is not guaranteed.

 

10 hours ago, CassDarry said:

Funniest assessment of Dany’s Army I’ve ever read haha

 

7 hours ago, TedBear said:

:lmao:  That was a hilarious description, think it was a rip off, not a purchase

It was a bit tongue in cheek I admit, but I do think the point is valid.

Daenerys has a lot of former slaves in her army. She has people she free who wanted to follow her, and then she has the Unsullied who she freed and who still follow her. We know this as an audience for how it turns out, but the Westerosi don't have the luck of possessing an objective point of observation.

Daenerys can claim that she set the Unsullied free, but the average Westerosi peasant or lord has no proof of that. All the know is that she admits to 'buying' them through trickery, and they're been following her around conquering cities for her.

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On 1/14/2020 at 7:32 PM, The Jingo said:

Her optics are exponentially worse than his on all fronts. Literally the only advantage she has is her dragons.

I'm wondering who will be Dorne this time and tell her to fuck off.

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On 1/17/2020 at 4:05 PM, Moiraine Sedai said:

Daenerys + Dragons + Dothraki + Unsullied = Awesome

This plot has the greatest chance. Best for Daenerys to wait and let the Others do the work of thinning the opposition. Arrive in Spring and she will only have to deal with the Starks who sided with the Others.  

Starks side with the Others?

If Dany does that, won’t she just be seen as a foreign invader? She’s never set foot in Westeros. Only born on Dragonstone and then whisked away to Essos. Then all her followers are from Essos or Dragons. But I suppose if she saves everyone from the Others she could be accepted.

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On 1/17/2020 at 6:37 PM, Lord Daedrunk said:

Aegon/Connington have the best chance with the information we have been given. They have an army, are starting to court allies, and Aegon has the birthright if he truly is who he thinks he is. On top of that he has been trained from a young age to rule and be just. 

Problem with Aegon and Jon with the Golden Company(apart from that the GC are mercenaries and descendants-opposite to Aegon and Jon) 

Is that if they don’t win support or gain allies, they don’t have enough soldiers to hold the castles they have taken and carry on at this rate. As far as what’s been released the Golden Company still hasn’t fully arrived and they have split up a lot; Guarding their landing site with Gorys, holding Rain House with Laswell Peake, Crows Nest with Ser Tristan Rivers, a garrison at Greenstone, Mistwood under Young John Mudd, Griffins Roost and then Storms End.

If there are other Targaryen claimants that might dilute their support not only of genuine Loyalists but Lannister-Baratheon enemies .

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On 1/17/2020 at 6:37 PM, Lord Daedrunk said:

Viserys never has a chance. Even if he were the only Targ left and he makes it to Dorne I don't see him inspiring enough loyalty and respect to come close to being the leader of a Dorne-ish backed alliance, let alone a leader of any army. I feel his hubris and ego would constantly get in the way of his larger goals of ruling. Viserys is very punchable and I think the people of Westeros would agree if they got a feel for him. 

You don’t see Doran or any other Martells. (One would presume Oberyn would still be alive if Viserys came to claim Arianne in aGoT) calming him, educating him, training him and helping him to be a better ruler?

Viserys last joy went when he had to sell his mothers crown maybe his claim being taken seriously or just being in Westeros calm him. Maybe just having a plan for him getting the throne would be enough?

Plus I believe Doran and Dorne aren’t below using Viserys as a figurehead to cause a rebellion just to get revenge for Elia, Aegon and Rhaenys.

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On 1/18/2020 at 2:13 AM, The Jingo said:

The final setup would probably be something like Aegon marries Daenerys, his sons are his heirs in the usual fashion. His firstborn daughter is married to the firstborn son of Viserys and Arianne. If Aegon dies without sons of his own the throne passes to Viserys and his sons. They may also decide to betroth a daughter of Viserys and Arianne to Aegon's son to appeal to Viserys' pride and strengthen the Dornish blood in the crown, but this is not guaranteed.

Isn’t Dany not barren? Would Aegon accept a marriage if she is? 

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On 1/12/2020 at 12:46 PM, CassDarry said:

Out of the three Return to the Iron Throne plots for the Targaryens, If they all actually came into play which one would succeed? 

Viserys, Arianne, Doran and Dorne.

Daenerys, Dragons, Dothraki and Unsullied.

Aegon, Connington and The Golden Company.

To make all three factions happen, I would say after Jorah stop Viserys stealing the Dragon Eggs he left instead of getting drunk and threatening Dany and Drogo.

Some how Doran gets him to Dorne and that should let Dany get her armies. 

Also Varys knows 2 of the plots at least so who would he side with?

Which one would end up on the Iron Throne it any? 

Daenerys has the most powerful team.  She has enough resources on her own. I would take her side.  Viserys and Arianne is not going to work unless Khal Drogo follows through on his deal and do what he agreed.  Which he will but it could be the Ice Age comes before he's ready.  Aegon and Connington can only work if enough of the houses throw in with them.  It's still unlikely to work as long as the Tyrells support the Lannisters.  

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