Qhorin Halfhand was Ser Arthur Dayne - Revisited.

[three-eyed monkey]

On 2/6/2020 at 9:27 PM, The Green Bard said:

 Hey, you and I agree on a lot, we just disagree on the relative probability of the final conclusion here.  I’ll buy you a shot of Jameson if you turn out to be right!  

On 2/6/2020 at 9:27 PM, The Green Bard said:

You also choose to interpret Qhorin’s praise and criticism of Mance in the worst light possible to minimize my argument.

No, I'm just taking the full quote. and there's more that Qhorin says about Mance that doesn't really fit with Mance being Arthur, like him being born of wildling raiders and when he forswore his oath he was only going back to the wild. That fits with what Mance says about himself being as low born as a man can be. Add to that Qhorin saying that Mance never learned to obey. I just don't think Mance fits with being Arthur.

On 2/6/2020 at 9:27 PM, The Green Bard said:

Who would be more apt to be critical of a man who is undisciplined or who does “not bend easily” (yes Dayne and Mance said very similar phrases about knees as well) to authority than a man’s former lord commander.

It was Qhorin and Dayne who said the line about knees bending easily. But my main point here is that an undisciplined, never anointed, low born Arthur who never learned to obey is nothing like the character Jaime, Barristan, and Jon Connington recall.

On 2/6/2020 at 9:27 PM, The Green Bard said:

 I am not a huge supporter of the Oswell = Oswell theory myself but (devil’s advocate) once you consider house Whent as being the seat of Harrenhal,  the same place that brought you house Strong, that really screwed with both sides in the Dance, it starts to make a bit more sense.  
 His “sons” would clearly actually be his nephews, those same ones who jousted at the Harrenhal tourney.  Being supportive of the man who holds the title to Harrenhal would make some sense if you want it back.   Just wait until he holds it in truth, not just in name, then engineer an opportunity to double-cross him.  I also thought the were in the disputed lands, not the Crownlandd, but whatever.   Like I said, I am not a huge supporter of that one.  

I don't buy it. His use of the same first name seems a little silly to me in such a scenario.

On 2/6/2020 at 9:27 PM, The Green Bard said:

As to Dustin, the full blown theory has not been published yet, is certainly tinfoil, but may be interesting.   

Only really tinfoil in a Lord Dustin was clearly a faceless man, hence fleeing to Braavos sort of way. He did change a letter of his first name and was clearly smarter than Oswell.

On 2/6/2020 at 10:01 PM, The Green Bard said:

As I said before, I am one of relative probability, and I think the probability of Dayne surviving to be quite high.

Agreed.

On 2/6/2020 at 10:01 PM, The Green Bard said:

If he does, I think it follows that some of the rest did too.  

I don't think that is necessarily so. I think Ser Arthur being snared in Howland's net and Ned offering him the block or the black is very plausible. If the other kingsguard survived too, and indeed Lord Dustin, then a different dynamic would have been in place at the end of the battle at the tower and that would have to be explained.

[The Green Bard]

2 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

first name and was clearly smarter than Oswell.

Lol.  I can’t help but agree with that!  
 

What I meant though, is that without Dayne surviving, the probability for the rest is nil.  As soon as he does, it is now at least debatable as non-zero.  

And I just remembered another reason for a Whent to be with Baelish... their blood ties to Sansa.   
 

3 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Qhorin and Dayne who said the line about knees bending easily

You’re right that Qhorin said it, but he said it about Mance.  Logically, he could be echoing his own words or echoing the words of the man who was the subject of the conversation.  I think the Jaime dilemma (forsaking of one vow for another) and our little glimpse into Ser Arys give us reason to believe the King’s guard to be much more dynamic in their motivations, so, to me it is not a stretch for Dayne to follow either Mance’s or Qhorin’s path.  It really comes down to my buying in to the half hand fitting Hightower.