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Where did Elia fit in the Lyanna-Rhaegar relationship?


Alyn Oakenfist

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15 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

The Harrenhal tourney and the birth had to have occurred within two months.  Harrenhal's tourney occurred during the False Spring.  The False Spring lasted less than two months, then  winter unexpectadly returned shortly before the start of the new year. 

And Rhaegar left Elia and their child behind and rode out with his six companions at the start of the new year:

Of course the other possibility is that Elia gave birth to Aegon prior to the Harrenhal tourney.    That seems doubtful for a number of reasons.  First Elia nearly lost her life in childbirth, so it seems unlikely that she would have travelled to the Harrenhal tourney soon after that birth (of course it's never stated how long she was bedridden after Aegon's birth, we only know she was bedridden for half a year after her daughter's birth.  The other issue is that Aegon was supposed to still be an infant when he was killed in the Sack.  If she gave birth too long prior to Harrenhal, then it's really pushing the envelope to say that Aegon would still be an infant at the time of the Sack.

So the vision was either within two months after Harrenhal or sometime before Harrenhal.

Elia had just nearly died giving birth to Aegon, do you really think she’s going to think about Harrenhal even 2 months ago after she survives death? Also some parents usually don’t argue in front of their children. This was a small window in their lives but doesn’t necessarily show they were fond of each other.

 Besides if she was heavily pregnant during Harrenhal, I doubt they would allow for her to leave Dragonstone as it would be a risk. Most likely GRRM was not paying attention to the timeline.

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11 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

The Harrenhal tourney and the birth had to have occurred within two months.  Harrenhal's tourney occurred during the False Spring.  The False Spring lasted less than two months, then  winter unexpectadly returned shortly before the start of the new year. 

This is not precise. Yes, we know the False Spring as such lasted less than two turns, but this doesn't mean that some time didn't pass between the end of the False Spring and the return of winter with vengeance - and, more importantly, it doesn't tell us how long it took until winter to create long icicles in KL or froze the Blackwater shut. Even if the temperature dropped from sunny spring to deep winter in couple of days it would have taken weeks for as broad and fast flowing a river as the Blackwater to completely freeze over. To me it looks like winter returned in November or so, giving the weather time to work its havoc on the place. Check the comparisons - we have snowy weather in the North, the Riverlands, and even KL for some time now in the books, yet there is no talk about the great rivers being frozen over.

'With the coming of the new year' is also not precise - could be around the actual beginning of the new year, could be at some point in the first month of the new year. We don't know. Just as it is not clear when exactly Rhaegar left during the month his father had the pyromancers burn wildfire atop the walls - right at the beginning or sometime during the month? We don't know.

We also have no indication that Elia's pregancy was visible yet at Harrenhal, or that she was about to give birth. Could be a time line issue on George's part, of course, him not caring/realizing that Elia must have been pretty pregnant during the tourney, but I don't think that's the case.

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44 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

This is not precise.

It may not be terribly precise but it seems pretty clear that the false spring took less than two months and it ended shortly before the new year.  A "false spring" means that winter had never actually ended.  They had less than two months of warm weather in the midst of a winter.

So the wiggle room we have is how much time is "shortly before" the new year and what is meant by "coming of the new year".  Because that would be the time period in addition to the "less than two turns" after the Harrenhal tourney that Rhaegar left Elia and his son to begin his journey.  So if you assume that Elia gave birth to Aegon after Harrenhal, then this is the time period it had to have occurred in.  

 

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46 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

We also have no indication that Elia's pregancy was visible yet at Harrenhal, or that she was about to give birth. Could be a time line issue on George's part, of course, him not caring/realizing that Elia must have been pretty pregnant during the tourney, but I don't think that's the case.

But we have no indication that she wasn't visibly pregnant either do we?  

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21 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

It may not be terribly precise but it seems pretty clear that the false spring took less than two months and it ended shortly before the new year.  A "false spring" means that winter had never actually ended.  They had less than two months of warm weather in the midst of a winter.

We cannot assume winter is always winter in Westeros. Yes, the period they called 'the False Spring' took less than two months, but Lord Walter would have never announced this great tourney back in 280 AC if winter had had the Realm so much in its grip that pretty much nobody could afford to go a tourney - much less actually feed the people assembled.

In that sense, this winter must have been both pretty short and very mild, and it stands to reason that they would have had mild winter weather (at least in the Harrenhal region and further south) from late 280 until the False Spring of 281 AC. Like the North does have its summer snows it stands to reason that the southern Reach and Dorne have their 'winter harvests' (from crops the they plant and grow in mild winters) or at least 'summery winter days'. After all, George has confirmed that it snows 'almost never' in Dorne and Oldtown (and rarely at Highgarden).

And it is just a fact of physics that giant icicles don't appear overnight nor do great (and very fast flowing) rivers completely freeze over just because it is below freezing for a couple of days.

In fact, chances are not that bad that winter, after its return with a vengeance, didn't target all of Westeros equally. We see winter slowly progressing from north to sout in the main series, meaning it may have taken days or even weeks before it started to snow in KL whereas the North and the Riverlands may have been freezing cold long before that.

21 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

So the wiggle room we have is how much time is "shortly before" the new year and what is meant by "coming of the new year".  Because that would be the time period in addition to the "less than two turns" after the Harrenhal tourney that Rhaegar left Elia and his son to begin his journey.  So if you assume that Elia gave birth to Aegon after Harrenhal, then this is the time period it had to have occurred in. 

I know that the wiggle room is not necessarily that big, but it is there. Like it is with the birthdays of the various princes late in a particular year. We know that Jacaerys and Lucerys and Aegon III were all born late in their particular year of birth, but we cannot pin down the week or even the months of their birth.

It is also not clear when in the False Spring Harrenhal occurred - could have been in the first moon or the second.

36 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

But we have no indication that she wasn't visibly pregnant either do we?  

No, but I'd imagine that the author would have mentioned that when all the smiles died. It would have been much more humiliating for Elia if she was visibly pregnant and about to give birth to Rhaegar's second child.

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