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Robb’s War Was The Most Just Of Them All.


The Wolves

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8 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

We won't agree in the end, I won't change your mine and you wont change mine either, but if you are willing to assume the possibility for me already is a progress.

How is it progress when that has always been my opinion. That the text is unclear. Every time we've had this debate I have always had the position that the several castles line did not make sense. If anything, going over the quotes with you, makes it far more plausible that it was the Riverland castles than the Westerland castles.

If anything I feel it was progress. When I said to you it may have been the Riverland castles you were convinced only two were taken and I had to show you the quotes from the books that more than two were taken.

You moving on seems like progress.

 

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Gold is always important,

What gold? Robb did not come back with gold.

Mines have to be mined, they don't have gold just lying around. Robb stopped production.

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the cattle stealling will starve the smallfolks of the Westerlands and feed the smallfolks of the Riverlands,

When did the livestock go to the smallfolk of the Riverlands? It went to the nobility, likely to feed their armies.

We hear from a lot of smallfolk in the Riverlands, none are talking about how Robb was feeding them.

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is also a payback moment, showing that Robb, noble as he is, is also capable of evil acts on war and also force injustice to some extend.

Which is what this thread was about. Thanks for backing up what I and others have said.

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The castle that were taken are not mentioned by name, but they are mentioned on Luwin's letter.

Possibly, or it is also possible that he was talking about the Riverland castles.

It is also possible that he was mistaking the names of the mines for castles (clearly there is both a Castamere castle and mine).

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Except that Robb is never portrait as inept on his military actions.

I'm not sure your point here? Robb is not some kind of god who can't be wrong.

Great commanders can make flawed plans. Alternatively there was no plan at all and he was manipulating Edmure like he manipulated his own mother in the same chapter.

He has bagged me neat as a hare in a snare. I seem to have already forgiven him. Mixed with her annoyance was a rueful admiration; the scene had been staged with the cunning worthy of a master mummer . . . or a king.

The issue here is that you seem to have Robb and the Blackfish on some bizarre pedestal where they can't be bending the truth to Edmure and they can't be wrong about a plan's success.

Robb being wrong now and again does not mean he is inept. No one has ever made that claim. This might be your issue here, that there is little nuance in your takes; that someone is either great or inept and there is no inbetween.

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If anything all his plans worked perfect or were made even better in the end.

He had no plan to get past the Golden Tooth. It was blind luck.

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Robb didn't need siege equipment to take the Crag or Ashmark, why would he need it to take the Golden Tooth that is a small castle by GRRM own words?

Small has nothing to do with how strong a castle is. Riverrun is small.

We know from the source material that the Golden Tooth is a strong castle

How did the king ever take the Tooth? That's a hard strong keep, and it commands the hill road.

The Crag is far from that

The Westerling mines had failed years ago, their best lands had been sold off or lost, and the Crag was more ruin than stronghold. A romantic ruin, though, jutting up so brave above the sea

 

Now given you think seem to have originally have been of the idea that the Crag and the Golden Tooth are similar and these quotes from the books say otherwise, have you at all changed your position?

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The army under Daven are the survivors of Oxcross,

No, they were a mixture of the men from Lannisport and with Forley Prester at the Golden Tooth.

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they were poorly trained,

We don't that. The men at the Golden Tooth don't appear to have been that, and a lot could have been done in the months between Oxcross and Daven's entry to the Riverlands.

Do you have a quote in AFFC that calls Daven's host untrained?

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not age fitting less than 2k,

Well yeah. Why would they need more? The war is pretty much over, the majority of the Lannister army at Kings Landing were sent home.

A large host was not needed, especially not with most of the Riverlands subdued.

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mounths after Robb left the west, by the time of the confrontation between Robb and Tywin they were scatered and cleary not presented a significant threat.

eh? How is that clear? Some quotes from the books making this 'clear' would be nice.

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They were a inefective force there at Oxcross,

The one from Lannisport were (though not the ones with Forley Prester) but that was some time ago. Armies can be trained,

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and they would be inefective again,

No. They were untrained, unarmed and attacked in the middle of the night when they had no reason to know that a foreign army was in the West.

Hugely different circumstances.

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but if you count this unready rabble as a reserve than sure,

Well yeah, I do. Just like you do in the North.

You ignored this question last time, but does Robb have reserves in the North after his 18k army left?

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Tywin does has a little tiny bit of reserve.

Finally. Progress at last.

 

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Several nobles were captured or killed at Oxcross such as Lord Brax, Crackhall, Jast and Vikery

And? The nobles who were killed and captured at the Battle of the Green Fork still had reserves in their lands, right?

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Thanks for the clarification but how do you see it playing a major factor in the chase or battle

Tywin has access to each and every castle, he has access to the best way to communicate in the West and he has better understanding of the Westerlands lands than a foreign army.

These reserves can harry, put up road blocks and generally slow down Robb's movements. A pretty common tactic to invading armies throughout history.

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None taken. Care to support your argmuent with some example of a military situation that he got wrong?

The defence of Winterfell was a huge blunder. Allowing Roose to command the majority of his force was another.

His plan for the Golden Tooth was saved by a hail mary. Another blunder saved by his magical pet direwolf.

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He never claimed that he had more cavalry than Tywin, he says that they were all horse, while Tywin's army was  manly foot and therefore they would travel fast and could safely lead Tywin on a marry chase,

Unless you know, Tywin split his force. Then boom, Tywin has both more men and more horse.

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please read his quote again, you are getting the facts wrong.

I'm not getting anything wrong. Please read what I have actually said.

Armies can split.

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We will keep repeating again and again what we said before...

As long as we are both happy doing so, what is the problem.

I think laying out the facts of how weak Robb's 'plan' was is something that is worthy of being repeated and again.

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Numbers are not everything,

No one has claimed that they are. You do realize you keep on saying this but I have not once said numbers are everything.

This kind of speaks of how weak your position is on this one, that every time we go over this your first point is to suggest I have said something that I never have just so your argument looks like it has got something right.

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Robb has better and magical scouts,

Not better. You claimed that the Blackfish was the best scout in Westeros, when I asked you to back this up you ignored my request.

He does have one magical direwolf, that is true. Does his plan incorporate that in any way? What you and I are arguing is about Robb's plan? Is his plan dependent on his magical direwolf?

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Robb is the one choosing the terrain that was greatly on his favor,

But he's not. He has no way of deciding the terrain.

He also has no way of knowing what the Westerland men know about that terrain.

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Tywin's "reserves" were a bunch of uselles mounths to feed,

No. The greenboys at Lannisport may have been but the actual defenders of Lannisport are the best trained in the realm, the ones at the Golden Tooth were also not, the garrisons at the many other castles also likely were not.

 

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he army already showed sighs of rabble such as his van on the GF.

We've gone over this and you ignored it.

And yet there was sense in what they said. This host her son had assembled was not a standing army such as the Free Cities were accustomed to maintain, nor a force of guardsmen paid in coin. Most of them were smallfolk: crofters, fieldhands, fishermen, sheepherders, the sons of innkeeps and traders and tanners, leavened with a smattering of sellswords and freeriders hungry for plunder.

 

Robb had far, far more 'rabble' in his 18k than the hundred or so that Tywin had in his. That is just how medieval armies were formed.

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I agree that Robb could not stop the Tyrells from joining the Crown, but this is not what we are arguing here.

In part, it is. Robb blaming Edmure for the Blackwater is beyond a joke because Robb had zero control over the Tyrells. For all Robb knows Tywin could have entered the Westerlands and nothing changed  (except Robb, given the text suggests he was bed ridden at the Crag at the time).

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Because Tyrion was never wrong about Robb before right? 

Woah! Did you read what I actually wrote? You claimed I was arguing with the text and I pointed out that

  1. I was not, as we have two differing points of view on the matter
  2. That my opinion was based primarily on the information we have on the matter

Never claimed that Tyrion can't be wrong, just pointing out that a character saying something does not mean they are correct.

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The Lannisters have a history of underastimating Robb,

Yes. And Tywin was aware of that. How many times do you think Robb is likely to be underestimated?

Tywin doubled (maybe tripled, I can't remember) his scouts after that.

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Robb and the Blackfish do not have such a history with Tywin.

Did they see the Red Wedding coming?

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Valid point, but the Freys are feed, while Stannis's knights are starving. 

So you are just going to move the goal posts. Concede your point but continue arguing.

 

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Maester Luwin sent Alebelly away and closed his door. "My lords," he said gravely, "we have had a message from His Grace, with both good news and ill. He has won a great victory in the west, shattering a Lannister army at a place named Oxcross, and has taken several castles as well. He writes us from Ashemark, formerly the stronghold of House Marbrand." (ACOK Bran V)

My reading has been that George is referencing events in the westerlands in this excerpt, not in the riverlands. George is just using Robb's letter to explain to the reader that Robb is having some success while off-page in the west, and then he gives a few more examples of Robb's continued success in ACOK Catelyn V. Although this is the first mention of Ashemark in ASOIAF, George may have chosen it because readers might remember Addam Marbrand from AGOT (and Addam is reintroduced a few chapters later in ACOK Arya VIII). The AGOT appendix lists the Marbrands as being a principal house of the west, so George is showing that Robb's campaign is hurting one of Tywin's stronger bannermen. I've assumed that the other, unnamed castles belonged to lesser lords / landed knights who aren't particularly relevant. The Map of the South from ACOK is pretty barebones in places, so George might not have even decided for himself where exactly Robb achieved his victories. George once said, "Simply because someone isn't mentioned doesn't mean they are not there", so I've assumed that goes for locations as well. 

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16 minutes ago, Nittanian said:

My reading has been that George is referencing events in the westerlands in this excerpt, not in the riverlands. George is just using Robb's letter to explain to the reader that Robb is having some success while off-page in the west, and then he gives a few more examples of Robb's continued success in ACOK Catelyn V. Although this is the first mention of Ashemark in ASOIAF, George may have chosen it because readers might remember Addam Marbrand from AGOT (and Addam is reintroduced a few chapters later in ACOK Arya VIII). The AGOT appendix lists the Marbrands as being a principal house of the west, so George is showing that Robb's campaign is hurting one of Tywin's stronger bannermen. I've assumed that the other, unnamed castles belonged to lesser lords / landed knights who aren't particularly relevant. The Map of the South from ACOK is pretty barebones in places, so George might not have even decided for himself where exactly Robb achieved his victories. George once said, "Simply because someone isn't mentioned doesn't mean they are not there", so I've assumed that goes for locations as well. 

To our present understanding it seems that Robb only took Ashemark and the Crag of the more important, named castles. There may have been quite a few smaller castles and keeps and what not, but those clearly were not important enough to be mentioned anywhere.

What is odd, though, in this entire scenario is Robb's complete lack of Marbrand or any other Western hostages aside from the Westerlings, if I remember correctly. If he truly took a castle he should have taken some hostages, like the Golden Company do when they take Griffin's Roost and Mistwood. This indicates either that George didn't develop this plot much or that there was not much to the taking of those castles, with the noble denizens being able to remove themselves before they could be captured. Robb refusing to take hostages would be very odd.

Overall, it seems that @Bernie Mac paints the more accurate picture here - regardless how many castles Robb took, the provisions and food he captured he would have taken from the smallfolk or from farms managed by the smallfolk since most castles in Westeros that we know of are not just giant stables. There is some lifestock there, but not all that much - that's kept in the adjacent farms, villages, and towns. Even in as large a castle as Winterfell there is no talk about there being much (or rather: any) cattle housed within the confines of the castle walls.

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3 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

To our present understanding it seems that Robb only took Ashemark and the Crag of the more important, named castles. There may have been quite a few smaller castles and keeps and what not, but those clearly were not important enough to be mentioned anywhere.

What is odd, though, in this entire scenario is Robb's complete lack of Marbrand or any other Western hostages aside from the Westerlings, if I remember correctly. If he truly took a castle he should have taken some hostages, like the Golden Company do when they take Griffin's Roost and Mistwood. This indicates either that George didn't develop this plot much or that there was not much to the taking of those castles, with the noble denizens being able to remove themselves before they could be captured. Robb refusing to take hostages would be very odd.

Yep, I agree with all of that. Lord Damon Marbrand isn't mentioned aside from the ASOS Appendix; maybe he was on campaign with Tywin? Willem Frey, a son of the Lannister-aligned Ser Cleos, served as a page at Ashemark, so George could have included him as well.

I wonder how Maege Mormont sends the cattle back to Riverrun, since the Golden Tooth guards the River Road and Deep Den guards the Goldroad. Maybe the Tumblestone valley?

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7 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

 

What is odd, though, in this entire scenario is Robb's complete lack of Marbrand or any other Western hostages aside from the Westerlings, if I remember correctly. If he truly took a castle he should have taken some hostages, like the Golden Company do when they take Griffin's Roost and Mistwood. This indicates either that George didn't develop this plot much or that there was not much to the taking of those castles, with the noble denizens being able to remove themselves before they could be captured. Robb refusing to take hostages would be very odd.

 

Yeah, it has always puzzled me. The appendix of ASOS lists the Westerland nobles

https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/A_Storm_of_Swords-Appendix#House_Lannister

And it is clear about the hostages Robb has taken, such as Jast captured at Oxcross, yet Lord Marbrand is not mentioned as a hostage, just as the Lord of Ashemark.

His son Addam Marbrand does not seem concerned that his father or any of his relatives are in danger. It is possible that the Marbrands have multiple castles(perhaps they gained Tarbeck Hall) or simply relocated to the Westerland capital.

But your right, hostages from the Marbrands, second or third cousins of Tywin, would be high on the list of targets.

 

1 hour ago, Nittanian said:

My reading has been that George is referencing events in the westerlands in this excerpt, not in the riverlands. George is just using Robb's letter to explain to the reader that Robb is having some success while off-page in the west, and then he gives a few more examples of Robb's continued success in ACOK Catelyn V.

The quote on its own is how I initially read it. But the lack of any mentions of them elsewhere, the fact that it was so early in Robb's campaign (and he had to keep his presence secret before Oxcross, so no taking of castles before then) as well as the Riverlanders pointing out that Robb has no siege equipment does present it with question marks.

It is possible that they were similar Castles to the ruinous and poorly defended Crag, but it is also possible it was talking about the Robb's forces retaking the Bracken, Blackwood, Piper and other Riverland castles which also happened pretty early after the battles of Riverrun/Green Fork.

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3 minutes ago, Nittanian said:

Yep, I agree with all of that. Lord Damon Marbrand isn't mentioned aside from the ASOS Appendix; maybe he was on campaign with Tywin? Willem Frey, a son of the Lannister-aligned Ser Cleos, served as a page at Ashemark, so George could have included him as well.

I expect that Lord Damon was not at home. But some family - women, old people, children - must have been there in any case. And even in the unlikely scenario of there being no (male) family being left behind there would have been some noble castellan who would be a not-that-irrelevant hostage in his own right. I'd expect that Willem Frey as Lord Damon's squire would be with his lordly master wherever he was.

The Marbrands are one of the most important houses of the Westerlands, especially due to their recent marriages and connections with the Lannisters of Casterly Rock. Tywin's mother was Jeyne Marbrand, his brother Tygett was married to Darlessa Marbrand, possibly a first cousin of Tygett's, and we can be reasonably certain that Ser Addam Marbrand became this close a friend of Jaime's because of their kinship. Depending on his age, Lord Damon himself could be Tywin's first cousin (being the son of a brother of his mother) or first cousin once removed.

Marbrand hostages could thus become valuable bargaining chips to put more pressure on Tywin.

3 minutes ago, Nittanian said:

I wonder how Maege Mormont sends the cattle back to Riverrun, since the Golden Tooth guards the River Road and Deep Den guards the Goldroad. Maybe the Tumblestone valley?

One imagines that there are other ways to get in the West and to the Riverlands. The hills of the West are not the Mountains of the Moon (and even there there must be more passes in and out of the mountains than just the high road).

6 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

His son Addam Marbrand does not seem concerned that his father or any of his relatives are in danger. It is possible that the Marbrands have multiple castles(perhaps they gained Tarbeck Hall) or simply relocated to the Westerland capital.

It might indeed be that they are at Casterly Rock. It is a huge castle, and if Darlessa is still alive, and the sister of Lord Damon and aunt of Ser Addam then it is not impossible at all that they hang out there often enough. Damon could have been involved in the Oxcross battle and been able to get away.

They could also be in Lannisport. And speaking about where people are in relation to the West - I found it always odd that Dorna Swyft as Kevan's wife would live in Lannisport. Doesn't Kevan live with Tywin at the Rock? Does this mean Kevan and his wife live at separate homes?

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On 1/23/2020 at 11:24 PM, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Her very house words are Family, Duty, Honor. Family first, as it should be. She is not duty bound to a King that potentially played a part in two attempts on her sons life & she would have to be a fool to bring this to him, given the information she has. 

It isn't a matter of the assassin getting off, the assassin is dead. It is a matter of endangering the rest of her family, if she brings this to the very people she believes have committed the crime. 

She was more concerned about the person who sent the assassin.  And yes, she has an obligation to bring the matter to Robert.  She had a responsibility to handle the matter in such a way as to protect the small folk.  

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1 hour ago, Aline de Gavrillac said:

She was more concerned about the person who sent the assassin.  And yes, she has an obligation to bring the matter to Robert.  She had a responsibility to handle the matter in such a way as to protect the small folk.  

She is under no such obligation. As I said, her very house words dictate family comes first. Secondly to say she is obligated to go to Robert is essentially saying she is obligated to put her duty to the Crown ahead of her family, which is bs. No matter what society dictates, no matter what the King & Queen expect of her, the right to protect yourself & your loved ones isn't something that can be overrode by any law or duty, regardless of the times. 

Also, I said she was investigating the assassin, the poster I quoted said she was investigating Bran's fall. She had no reason to believe going to Robert would protect the smallfolk & quite a bit of reason to believe it would harm them. 

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