Jump to content
The Wolves

Robb’s War Was The Most Just Of Them All.

Recommended Posts

15 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

No. He only sacks two castles, one of them by the poor Westerlings whose home is described as more ruin than castle.

No. He took several...

“My lords,” he said gravely, “we have had a message from His Grace, with both good news and ill. He has won a great victory in the west, shattering a Lannister army at a place named Oxcross, and has taken several castles as well. He writes us from Ashemark, formerly the stronghold of House Marbrand.”

And this is before the Craig.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Robb did not care about people being raped, murdered and kidnapped. His army made it worse for the people of the Riverlands, not better.

The cook was spared (some said because he'd made the weasel soup), but stocks were hammered together for pretty Pia and the other women who'd shared their favors with Lannister soldiers. Stripped and shaved, they were left in the middle ward beside the bear pit, free for the use of any man who wanted them.

The Northern army were raping just as much as the Westerland army was.

The harvest wasn't burned south o' the river. Course, there's plenty want to take what we got. Wolves one day, Mummers the next. Them that's not looking for food are looking for plunder, or women to rape, and them that's not out for gold or wenches are looking for the bloody Kingslayer.

And they pillage and plunder just like the Westerland army does.

He sent men off to Riverrun to fight but never went himself. Lions sacked his town, then wolves, then sellswords, and his lordship just sat safe behind his walls.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Lem glowered. "Your lion friends ride into some village, take all the food and every coin they find, and call it foraging. The wolves as well, so why not us? No one robbed you, dog. You just been good and foraged."

Robb, just like the majority of the nobility, does not really care about the smallfolk. They are collateral damage to his own ambitions and needs. Framing the argument that Robb went to war because of the injustice that was happening to the people of the Riverlands is factually incorrect.

He wasn't. He was trying to get revenge for his dad. Tywin, Gregor and Kevan were in Harrenhal, with free reign in the Riverlands. The Lords of the Riverlands begged him to attack, he chose to go West to do onto the Westerland smallfolk what Tywin (and his own Northmen) were doing to the Riverland smallfolk.

 

:agree:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Debatable. That seems to be a concoction made up to coerce Edmure into quickly marrying a Frey.

That is actually an interesting idea. I doubt they just came up with this thing as a complete concoction but I'd definitely think that there is no way that Robb actually thought he would lure Tywin west when he set out with his army. For one, he could not know that he would be able to defeat the new Lannister army in the West the way he did - and while this wasn't the case he did indeed have any reason to ensure that Edmure and the Riverlords prevented Tywin from following him or else he risked being caught between two armies.

The general idea of Robb being able to actually lure Tywin into a trap in his own lands is also something that smells a little bit like overconfidence/madness. If they started to believe they could pull off something like that then only after they crushed Stafford as easily as they did at Oxcross.

In any case - the way to actually prevent Edmure from doing what he did would have been to give him specific instruction - which could have been done via raven. The fact that this wasn't done makes it increasingly likely that your interpretation there makes more sense than actually going with the story Robb and the Blackfish tell.

After all, Edmure won a considerable victory and, having finally become Lord of Riverrun, was quite popular with his lords and knights at this point. If they hadn't used this ploy to undercut/destroy his confidence in his own abilities he may have indeed refused to marry a Frey girl to rectify a mistake his dear royal nephew made. But would have instead demanded that Catelyn take some Frey as a second husband, that the Blackfish marry, or that Robb set aside his Westerling wife and keep his marriage contract with the Freys himself.

Another reason why they may have decided to blame Edmure for the situation they were in might have to do with the fact that they were furious and desperate that the Blackwater didn't turn out the way they had hoped - in large part also because Robb decided to go west rather than remain in the Riverlands and be at hand to attack Tywin should he leave Harrenhal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

No. He took several...

“My lords,” he said gravely, “we have had a message from His Grace, with both good news and ill. He has won a great victory in the west, shattering a Lannister army at a place named Oxcross, and has taken several castles as well. He writes us from Ashemark, formerly the stronghold of House Marbrand.”

And this is before the Craig.

And yet all we hear about is the Crag and Ashemark.

"I am not a wolf, no matter what they call me." Robb sounded cross. "Grey Wind killed a man at the Crag, another at Ashemark, and six or seven at Oxcross. If you had seen—"

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thirty-five hundred they were, thirty-five hundred who had been blooded in the Whispering Wood, who had reddened their swords at the Battle of the Camps, at Oxcross, Ashemark, and the Crag, and all through the gold-rich hills of the Lannister west.

 

We get names of mines, but no other castle, no other mention of Houses they have taken the property from.

 

Without siege engines there was no way to storm Casterly Rock, so the Young Wolf was paying the Lannisters back in kind for the devastation they’d inflicted on the riverlands. Lords Karstark and Glover were raiding along the coast, Lady Mormont had captured thousands of cattle and was driving them back toward Riverrun, while the Greatjon had seized the gold mines at Castamere, Nunn’s Deep, and the Pendric Hills. Ser Wendel laughed. “Nothing’s more like to bring a Lannister running than a threat to his gold.”

“How did the king ever take the Tooth?” Ser Perwyn Frey asked his bastard brother. “That’s a hard strong keep, and it commands the hill road.”

“He never took it. He slipped around it in the night. It’s said the direwolf showed him the way, that Grey Wind of his.

 

No mention of other Houses, no other castles taken. A mention that Robb does not have siege equipment, which kind of makes capturing pretty difficult, unless they are ruins like the Crag.

 

The Westerling mines had failed years ago, their best lands had been sold off or lost, and the Crag was more ruin than stronghold. A romantic ruin, though, jutting up so brave above the sea. "I am surprised," Tyrion had to confess. "I thought Robb Stark had better sense."

 

Maybe the letter to Winterfell was mistaken, possibly referring to the Riverland castles retaken but the timeline does not seem to fit with the idea of Robb having took several Westerland castles that soon after Oxcross.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZsY3lcDDtTdBWp1Gx6mfkdtZT6-Gk0kdTGeSC_Dj7WM/edit#gid=8

Arya (Harrenhal) and Bran (Winterfell) hear of Robb's victory at Oxcross days apart. Considering the point of Robb's mission was to take Stafford by surprise, his stealth mission would not mean taking Westerland settlements before he took down Stafford.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, The Jingo said:

 

- The sacking and burning of the Riverlands was reduced but not eliminated after the arrival of the Northern host, because the Northern host defeated Jaime in the West and then had Tywin bottled up defending Harrenhal. Did this totally end the rape of the Riverlands? No. But the difference is that Robb's armies were taking food only as needed, whereas Tywin was deliberately burning as much as possible in reprisal for Cat Tully taking Tyrion prisoner.

That is demonstrably false. Not to be rude, but starting your very, very long reply with something that is not backed up by the books is not a great start.

From the POV of Arya, Brienne and Jaime we hear multiple accounts of how the smallfolk are tormented by Lions and Wolves. Nowhere is it said that the Wolves only took what was needed.

"Would I tell you if I did?" The man spat. "Likely it were wolves' work, or maybe lions, what's the difference? The wife and I found them dead.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Child," said the singer, "put up that sword, and we'll take you to a safe place and get some food in that belly. There are wolves in these parts, and lions, and worse things. No place for a little girl to be wandering alone."

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A man laughed bitterly. "The lions killed Ser Wilbert a year ago. His sons are all off with the Young Wolf, getting fat in the west. You think they give a damn for the likes of us? It was the Mad Huntsman caught these wolves."

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Lem glowered. "Your lion friends ride into some village, take all the food and every coin they find, and call it foraging. The wolves as well, so why not us? No one robbed you, dog. You just been good and foraged."

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Brienne felt obligated to pass along that warning to the farmer and his wife. The man nodded as she told him, but when she was done he spat again and said, "Dogs and wolves and lions, may the Others take them all.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

He sent men off to Riverrun to fight but never went himself. Lions sacked his town, then wolves, then sellswords, and his lordship just sat safe behind his walls.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"And how shall he do that, Your Grace? Will he send a knight to walk the roads with every begging brother? Will he give us men to guard our septas against the wolves and lions?"

 

GRRM is very clear on this. Both armies were a detriment to the Riverlands people. Raping and pillaging as they pleased. The smallfok were the collateral damage in this war of nobles.

Quote

- They already had two armies raping and pillaging. The Lannisters and the Tully loyalists. Robb defeated/contained the first and took control of the second.

Except he did not. Tywin ordered his men to burn the Riverlands after the battle of the Green Fork, not before it. Robb does nothing to counter this.

Where is it claimed the Tully's were raping and pillaging from their own lands?

Quote

- Robb can only help the Riverland smallfolk by winning the war.

No, if the smallfolk were truly a priority he could

  • sue for peace
  • stay in the Riverlands to help properly defend them
  • set aside his crown and join another faction

There are many ways Robb could help the smallfolk, he chooses not to as he has more important priorities.

Quote

- It's disingenuous to pretend as if Robb brought conflict to the Riverlands.

I did not say he brought it, my wording was very clear. I very plainly in  my post, which you have quoted, said he "...by marching to war in the Riverlands, increased the suffering of the Riverland smallfolk. They now had two armies raping and pillaging from them. Robb prolonging the war in the Riverlands..." What is disingenuous is ignoring what I actually wrote and imply I said something else.

Robb marching South did prolong the war, did increase the suffering of the Riverland people. That is simply a fact.

Quote

 

So given Tywin's willingness to just massacres thousands of people for a minor slight, no one has any real guarantee that if the North surrendered the tyranny would stop.

Thousands? Where is the thousands from? Thousands only became a number after Robb got involved, not before.

And where is it mentioned that Robb marched or got involved in the war because of this? You are creating motive that does not exist in the books.

Quote

30k assaulting 20k in a defended position is asking for mass casualties and a probable defeat.

Again, reread what I said. I was very clear, they would not need to assault Harrenhal to stop the Lannisters coming and going as they pleased.

Quote

And again, Robb doesn't actually gain anything from besieging Harrenhal without assault.

He does. He gets to stop the Westerland marauders coming and going as they please, he puts and end to their attack on the smallfolk. He also gets to slow down Tywin when Kings Landing is attacked, as well as catching him from behind while he is in battle.

He can gain a lot. Again, I really don't want to be rude, but many of your comments is in absolutes when clearly they are not absoloute positions.

Quote

But I'm not really sure this argument matters to begin with. You say Robb should have defended the smallfolk from Tywin.

No I don't. Please don't invent arguments I never initiated. Reread the thread please.

Others pointed out that Robb was motivated by the suffering of the smallfolk and was actively trying to help them, I pointed out that not only is that never claimed or suggested in the actual books but Robb getting involved hurt the smallfolk.

Robb can do as he pleases as far as I'm concerned. I'm just pointing out what the books actually said, rather than the head cannon many seem to have.

Quote

 

 

- Well of course he stayed in the west. He had literally no reason to march back east.

He had a lot of reason. The Riverlands was still being assaulted and later he hears of how his homeland was now under attack.

Robb had a lot of reasons to leave both after Oxcross and after the Crag. He delays.

Again, not to be rude, but for your own arguments to look better stop using absolutes or saying 'literally' about things were there are multiple options, even if some of those options might seem weak to you.

Quote

By staying in the west his men feed off the supplies of the west rather than Riverlands, he can burn the West and make it less able to support a war effort,

Did it?

Quote

 

he can bait Tywin to come west and seek a battle of annihilation on Robb's terms.

Robb has a 4k army. Tywin's 20k plus whatever reserves he can call from the Golden Tooth, Lannisport and other Westerland settlements are not going to be annihilated in their own lands by a much, much smaller army.

 

Quote

 

Going east would get him what? "Oh well let's just pillage the Riverlands for supplies again while we sit around twiddling our thumbs and waiting for Tywin to get bored in Harrenhal."

Again, not sure what your argument is here?

The discussion is about Robb helping the smallfolk. Some have claimed he did, my position is that he did not. I'm not sure why you keep on trying to move goalposts.

Quote

- Robb can't do anything about the North.

He can and he does. He eventually makes the right call to march back home. He really should have done that as soon as he heard, rather than get married and relax for some more time.

Quote

 

He acknowledges outright that if he marches back North he won't be able to convince people to march back south,

Does he? Can you quote him on this? I think it may be possible you are confusing this with Robb's statement about not being able to get the Riverlords to march North with him.

And how does that change anything? He still has to march North.

Quote

 

and so he'd have to give up on the Riverlands entirely and probably give up Arya and Sansa for dead. Retreat to the North is a last ditch strategy that should only be done when facing overwhelming and unbeatable odds in the South.

He's not done much for the Riverlands. Tywin won on the Blackwater, he has an 80k army on the Riverlands doorstep and Robb does nothing. He remains longer at the Crag, he sends no word of strategy to Roose or Edmure about what they should do. Radio silence!

 

Quote

- You don't think it could have been a bit of both? Ned was the one that taught his children to see his subjects as 'children' and to go to bed every night afraid for their welfare. Robb Stark can simultaneously care about the smallfolk while also exhibiting a noble's sensibilities and simply valuing his sisters more. In the feudal mind the men that are fighting for him have no right to refuse, because they're sworn to defend House Stark.

How does this separate the Starks from the other Houses?

My argument is that, on the whole, they are all pretty much the same. Some slightly better, some slightly worse. But by and large the smallfolk come way, way behind the nobilities wants and whims.

Quote

No, after Oxcross Tywin's is the last Westerland army and the reserves are running dry. But Robb still doesn't have a strategic or tactical reason to move back east.

No, we know of reserves at both Lannisport and the Golden Tooth. Daven meets up with Jaime in AFFC with such a host

Quote

I included these because they are related, even if you're a wee confused.

Okay, so the canon sequence of events is basically:

1) Littlefinger offers a Lannister-Tyrell alliance to Mace by promising Joffrey to Margaery.

2) Stannis moves to attack King's Landing.

3) Tywin hears of this and retreats from the Battle of the Fords to march to the city.

4) Stannis attacks the city, Tywin and the Tyrells link up at the Blackwater Rush.

5) Tywin reinforces the city, drives out Stannis. Wins the Blackwater and saves the Lannister war effort.

The Freys and the Boltons don't actually turn traitor until after the Blackwater.

Yes. I'm still confused about your point.

Quote

So what I'm saying is if Robb had done what you suggested by besieging Harrenhal and attacking Tywin when he tried to go reinforce King's Landing the Northern host would have been destroyed by the Lannister-Tyrell army (30k vs 70-90k),

Harrenhal and the Blackwater Rush are some distance apart and the Tyrells unable to cross. Robb would not be fighting both host, he'd be fighting one.

Should the Tyrells go to Harrenhal instead of Kings Landing then Kings Landing falls.

Quote

 

but Stannis would have had enough time to win the Blackwater and kill Joffrey/Tommen/ect.

So Robb gets the revenge that he wanted and can sue for peace against a fairly weak King.

Quote

With the Lannister claimants dead, the Lannister-Tyrell alliance is dead since they don't have a prince to marry to Margaery. The Lannister cause is also dead, since Tywin can't wage war to win a throne for a dead boy. The North/Riverlands loses since the army is destroyed and has to kneel to Stannis, but it's not a total loss.

Tommen was at Rosby, Margaery in Dorne. There was only one Lannister claimant in Kings Landing.

 

Quote

 

You assertion now is predicated on the assumption that Robb was outright lying about a strategically viable plan.

Seems either he was or he just badly, badly misjudged his chances of victory.

Quote

Unless you intend to march through hills and mountains, it is accepted that there are only three ways to get into the Westerlands.

Possibly.

Quote

 

You march along the River Road past the Golden Tooth, or you march along the Goldroad past Deep Den, or else you detour way out of the way to take the Ocean Road past Crakehall. Any movement outside this requires that you essentially offroad it.

Robb's army only made it past the Tooth because Grey Wind found a narrow goat track through the mountains.

Which means the Golden Tooth is held by Tywin's army. Forely Prester and his remnants from Jamie's army were garrisoned there.

Robb skipped past it because he could not take it.

Quote

And Tywin's knowledge of his homeland doesn't make the strategy less valid. Geography is geography. Robb claims he planned to take a good defensive position on the Goldroad, and if Tywin didn't take that bait then Robb would just retreat and circle around pillaging while he did. The idea was basically "fight him here or else just lead him on a chase". That's not a bad plan when you outright know at the time of making this plan that Tywin must also contend with Robert's brothers who might take the chance to storm King's Landing.

But Tywin only moves West because Stannis was trying to take Storm's End, a seige that, without shadowbaby, should take Stannis at least half a year. This is both according to  Tyrion, Stannis and the author himself.

"Both of them." Storm's End was strong, it should have been able to hold out for half a year or more . . . time enough for his father to finish with Robb Stark. "How did this happen?"

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Estermont will favor settling down to starve them out, as Tyrell and Redwyne once tried with me. That might take a year, but old mules are patient.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Storm's End is a hugely formidable castle, and should have been able to hold out much longer, as it did during Robert's Rebellion when Stannis was inside rather than outside. And both Tyrion and Tywin knew that Stannis was a methodical commander rather than a daring one, and therefore would be unlikely to leave an enemy stronghold untaken in his rear.

So Robb could not have planned for this. He could not have known that Stannis had a deus ex machina that would get him Storm's End in a night, rather than the expected half a year.  This is a gaping black hole in the validity of Robb's plan.

Quote

You are both right and wrong. Given Robb has had weeks to get over the disappointment, he's not likely to be all that angry at Edmure once he arrives. He probably plays it up to convince Edmure to marry a Frey to improve the war situation, as well as deflecting attention from the amateur mistake Robb made in not telling Edmure about the long term strategic plan.

But he is angry, when they are in private he is pretty clear on his anger.

"Your Grace," Robb corrected, icy. "You took me for your king, Uncle. Or have you forgotten that as well?"

In front of all the other Riverland commanders, who all backed Edmure's plan up, Robb is nothing bus supportive of Edmure. When he and the Blackfish get Edmure alone they are able to tag team him. It is a classic ambush tactic, the type Robb used on his mother and what he regularly did in battle.

Quote

This is not proof that there was no plan at all to begin with, which would be odd given that we already have a couple of examples of Robb displaying relative battlefield cunning.

There may have been a plan, a severely flawed plan pretty much doomed to failure, but that 'plan' was ruined by Robb himself when he got himself injured taking the Crag as Tywin was on his way West.

Edmure likely saved Robb's life by stopping Tywin.

Quote

Neither of them would have known about the Tyrell army at this time, but Edmure's mistake still cost them the war.

They both know about the Tyrells when Robb, privatly, confronts him.

Blaming Edmure makes zero sense when Robb could not possibly know if the Tyrells would have went along without Tywin.

Quote

There is a difference between Tywin being stalled in one spot for several days,

Three days.

Quote

 

and Tywin marching several days without opposition.

The Golden Tooth could have sent word to him, the messangers could have reached him in time. You and I, are in the same positon as Robb here, we have no idea what could have happened. So blaming Edmure seems wrong.

Quote

 

And I'm not saying Robb planned for the Blackwater to happen when it did. I'm saying that Robb had a plan,

Lay out the plan. And all the moving parts.

Quote

 

and that if Edmure had been less brave it would have succeeded in general to draw Tywin to the west.

According to the author and Tyrion Tywin only moves West because of the seige of Storm's End. No seiege, no Tywin risking the capital. Yet another flaw in this plan.

Quote

 

 

Robb outright tells Edmure that he had a spot along the Goldroad where he had hoped to ambush Tywin and defeat him.

And?

Robb is not psychic. Even if he found land that Tywin or none of his men were familar with in the Westerlands he'd have no way of knowing their knowledge about it.

I don't know where you are from, but I imagine there are some places in your local neigbourhood that you are not familair with. I. a stranger to where you live, am not going to have any idea of which places you are familar with. Robb's plan was flawed.

Quote

Where are you getting this 4000 number from? That was the size of Robb's cavalry at the Whispering Wood, not what he took west.

From Cat.

Thirty-five hundred they were, thirty-five hundred who had been blooded in the Whispering Wood, who had reddened their swords at the Battle of the Camps, at Oxcross, Ashemark, and the Crag, and all through the gold-rich hills of the Lannister west.

Add in the Freys, minus the casualties they had taken in the battles and those that stayed at Riverrun, we get around 4k.

Quote

There is no guarantee that Tywin actually knows the Westerlands.

There is not. But Robb's plan only makes sense if he knows the blindspots Tywin and his men have about their own homeland. Otherwise it is just wishful thinking.

Quote

He rules it, but how often has he actually governed it? How often did he take the time to go out and explore it and live among it? Because you can't assume simply because he's Lord of Casterly Rock that he knows the land, whereas we at least know Robb knows it since he's been marching through it inspecting it for places to ambush Tywin from.

How would he know though? There are not going to be signs saying the Westerland army is not familair with this land.

Quote

Considering that Riverrun is at the western edge of the Riverlands, "hold Riverrun and guard the rear" probably means more along the lines of hold the actual castle and delay Tywin if he tries to move into the actual Westerlands.

It could have meant that. The point is Edmure did not think it meant that, the Riverlords, some who never agree with each other, thought it meant that.

If the instructions were unclear that is not the fault of the subordinate, but the fault of the one who gave the instructions.

Quote

 

OF course it was solid!

Disagree.

Quote

In isolation, Tywin is holed up at Harrenhal.

No. This may be semantics at play here, but in the British language holed up means to be hiding from someone. Tywin was not doing that, he picked Harrenhal because of its location, because it was in a position to be close to Kings Landing as well as Riverrun.

Tywin was free to come and go as he pleased.

Quote

 

Robb can assault it while living off the Riverlands, or he can move west and live off of Tywin's lands. Doing the second means they can sack and pillage (possibly even enough gold to hire sellswords). Doing the second also means that Tywin must either abandon Harrenhal (a well fortified position) to pursue Robb (leaving King's Landing open to attack from Renly/Stannis) or sit and guard the way to King's Landing (leaving his army to melt away like snow as his lords abandon him and take their armies home to defend their own lands).

Ultimatly he did the latter as Robb was not in a position to threaten the major Westerland settlements.

Quote

He did. It wasn't entirely his fault, but we know Edmure was more aggressive than he should have been - he was more aggressive than he usually would have been - in military matters because he was ashamed of being defeated so easily by Jaime.

Where is Edmure described as being more aggressive as he should have been?

 

Edited by Bernie Mac

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/21/2020 at 7:17 PM, The Wolves said:

They all had their reasons for the wars that they fought but I think Robb out of them all had the most just reason. He out of all of them cared about his people more than Stannis, Greyjoy, and certainly the Lannisters. 
 

This is only true when you compare him to Stannis, Greyjoy, and the Lannisters.  However, his reasons for going to war is far from the most justified.  That honor, the honor of having the most just reason for going to war belong to Daenerys.  She fought to help a people whom she owed nothing to.  Robb cannot say the same.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

And yet all we hear about is the Crag and Ashemark.

 

Do we really need it though? The letter is clear: "several castles" and this is before the Craig.

 

5 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Without siege engines there was no way to storm Casterly Rock, so the Young Wolf was paying the Lannisters back in kind for the devastation they’d inflicted on the riverlands. Lords Karstark and Glover were raiding along the coast, Lady Mormont had captured thousands of cattle and was driving them back toward Riverrun, while the Greatjon had seized the gold mines at Castamere, Nunn’s Deep, and the Pendric Hills. Ser Wendel laughed. “Nothing’s more like to bring a Lannister running than a threat to his gold.”

 

This quote does not name Ashmard and the Craig either, why would it name other castles then?

5 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

No mention of other Houses, no other castles taken. A mention that Robb does not have siege equipment, which kind of makes capturing pretty difficult, unless they are ruins like the Crag.

 

Ashmark was a ruin, the Craig was just had a weak garrison, like many other castles probably were. In Tywin's army we already see signs of a rabble, and Oxcross was cleary a army not ready to march or battle, the manpower and reserves of the Westerlands were dry, you just don't want to accept the text that is clear, Robb took several castles in the West

 

5 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Arya (Harrenhal) and Bran (Winterfell) hear of Robb's victory at Oxcross days apart. Considering the point of Robb's mission was to take Stafford by surprise, his stealth mission would not mean taking Westerland settlements before he took down Stafford.

.He cleary took them after Oxcross. 

 

3 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Robb has a 4k army. Tywin's 20k plus whatever reserves he can call from the Golden Tooth, Lannisport and other Westerland settlements are not going to be annihilated in their own lands by a much, much smaller army.

 

We don't hear number for Robb's army. Only during the Whispering woods that were 6000k and after the campaing in the West he return to the Twins with 3.5k after losing the Karstarks, The Freys, and the mercenary that he tooked from Tywin payroll remained in the West for pillage and sack.

Tywin does not have reserves, this was the whole point of Oxcross, there is no man power left.

And number do play a significant part on warfare but they are not everything...

In The battle of Hodow in 1694, 400 polish defeated a army of 25k crimean forces. In Battle Of Hemmingstedt in 1500 4k danish peasants beat 10k elite force of the HRE. At Vaslui Stefan the great with a army of 40k beat a army of 120k turks.In all those battles the decise factor was the terrain. 

We already saw Robb defeating larger armies at the Battle of the camps, and probably at Oxcross too, taking advantage of the terrain, why is so hard to belive that he can also beat Tywin under the conditions that he set up ?

 

Edited by Arthur Peres

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Do we really need it though? The letter is clear: "several castles" and this is before the Craig.

Yeah, we kind of do if we want to say with any kind of certainty.

As I said, it may mean the castles retook in the Riverlands, it might be a simple miscommunication or it may be several castles that are never mentioned while mines are or it could even be that the names of the mines were given and they were presumed to be castles.

We don't know, there is a question mark hovering over it. It is strange that we hear about both Ashemark and Crag multiple times, but nothing of any other House's castle being taken. That on its own might be nothing, but then we also have the explicit detaiils about Robb's lack of seige equipment and how early in Robb's campaign this is.

36 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

This quote does not name Ashmard and the Craig either, why would it name other castles then?

Why would it mention the Crag? That does not happen till later in the book. We don' know if Ashemark has happened yet at this juncture either, or of if it happened but news had arrived about it.

36 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Ashmark was a ruin, the Craig was just had a weak garrison,

No, the Crag was both half ruin and weakly garrisoned.

Ashemark is an unknown. Another genuine question mark. Addam Marbrand does not seem to cut up about it. No Marbrands are mentioned amongst Robb's prisoners in the Appendix.

36 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

like many other castles probably were.

In the richest realm? I suppose they could be minor Lords or Knights, in a similar position to the Westerlings.

36 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

In Tywin's army we already see signs of a rabble,

Not in Tywin's army. Tywin's army is as professional, if not more so, than any other factions.

36 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

and Oxcross was cleary a army not ready to march or battle,

True. It was an army mostly of green boys from Lannisport, untrained and unarmed.

36 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

the manpower and reserves of the Westerlands were dry,

We really don't know that. But not sure what that has to do with the garrisons of castles.

36 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

you just don't want to accept the text that is clear,

It's not though, there is a question mark over it. You might be right, you might be wrong, we don't have enough information to say.

36 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

Robb took several castles in the West

Name the castles or the Houses that lost their castles then.

36 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

.He cleary took them after Oxcross. 

So why does no one mention this?

Why mention the mines, the livestock, but not these other castles?

 

36 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

We don't hear number for Robb's army.

We do. Cat gives the number of 3,500. We can assume the Freys that were with Robb, some stayed at Riverrun, bumped this up to around 4k.

36 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Only during the Whispering woods that were 6000k and after the campaing in the West he return to the Twins with 3.5k after losing the Karstarks, The Freys, and the mercenary that he tooked from Tywin payroll remained in the West for pillage and sack.

Karstarks started out at 300 before the Battle of the Camps, Riverrun and Oxcross. Robb's initial 4,700 cavalry (sans Freys and Karstarks) was down to 3,500 (well more like 3,400 when you factor in Edmure's host and the Westerlings), so around 25% casualties. So we can assume that the Karstarks after Oxcross was around 250 and the Freys was around 750.

So 4,500, give or take, with Robb after Oxcross and before he angered the Freys.

36 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

Tywin does not have reserves,

Yes, he does. For one the portion of the 4k that retreated with Forely Prester from Riverrun to the Golden Tooth. For another the remnants of the army at Oxcross that retreated back to Lannisport.

36 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

this was the whole point of Oxcross, there is no man power left.

That was not the point. But yes, there were reserves. Look at the Crag, despite it being a home of an almost destitute House and despite it being taken by storm (which would mean casualties) the Westerlings still brought 50 knights and soliders to Robb's cause. Preumably some stayed behing.

If the Westerlings, a pretty low ranking House, had a garrison of a conservative 100, then we can assume the other Houses, the actual rich Houses or Houses near borders, would have even greater number of men.

36 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

And number do play a significant part on warfare but they are not everything...

But they are hugely important when dealing with armies of similar training and equipement. The North does not have an advantage in either over Tywin on this one.

36 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

In The battle of Hodow in 1694, 400 polish defeated a army of 25k crimean forces.

So what you are saying is that a home army was able to defeat a foreign army, were the home side was able to use their greater knowledge of the territory to defend their position. 

Though really, a battle with artillery and guns is not really a fair comparison to this.

36 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

In Battle Of Hemmingstedt in 1500 4k danish peasants beat 10k elite force of the HRE.

You are badly setting up each side here. It was not 10k elite, as 5k of the army were conscripted commoners(not elite). Also it was not really Danish peasants, they seem to have been a group of relatively rich commoners with military ability and a long tradition of independence. Also they were able to exploit the local terrain to great effect as well as the invading armies willingness to place itself in a very bad tactical situation.

Once again, the home side was victorious and once again we are talking about a battle with artillery and guns.

36 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

At Vaslui Stefan the great with a army of 40k beat a army of 120k turks.In all those battles the decise factor was the terrain. 

Yes, in all of those battles the home side won. This idea that an outside army, similarly equipped and trained (and that is being generous) would beat the much larger home side is statistically improbable.

These examples help my argument, not yours.

36 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

We already saw Robb defeating larger armies at the Battle of the camps,

We actually don't, it is unclear the army sizes. What we do see is the home side( plus North) be victorious against the outsiders. What we also see is the superior equipped side (Robb's knights vs the Lannister foot) be victorious.

36 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

and probably at Oxcross too,

We have no idea the numbers, only that the Green boys were mostly untrained and unarmed and attacked at night.

36 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

taking advantage of the terrain,

Yes. They found a secret entrance into the West and pounced on an army who had no idea Robb could get into the West undetected.

Tywin knows that Robb is in the West.

36 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

why is so hard to belive that he can also beat Tywin under the conditions that he set up ?

What conditions has he set up?

And we've had this conversation dozens of times. It is possible that Robb could win, but hugely unlikely given the odds.

Every time we have this conversation I ask you to reverse the situation. Would Tywin, with 4,500 men, beat Ned and a 20k plus army, in the North? You always seem to ignore this point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

As I said, it may mean the castles retook in the Riverlands, it might be a simple miscommunication or it may be several castles that are never mentioned while mines are or it could even be that the names of the mines were given and they were presumed to be castles.

 We don't know, there is a question mark hovering over it. It is strange that we hear about both Ashemark and Crag multiple times, but nothing of any other House's castle being taken. That on its own might be nothing, but then we also have the explicit detaiils about Robb's lack of seige equipment and how early in Robb's campaign this is.

It does not make sense to be about the Riverlands, Robb is already being refered as King, with houses comming to swear to Bran, the news of Robb freeing the Riverlands have already happened, the only castle Tywin holds there is HH and maybe Darry.

We hear very little of the Craig and even less about Ashmark. The Craig is brough more because the Westerlings played a major factor, other castles were not relevant for the story or for the war.

2 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

 Ashemark is an unknown. Another genuine question mark. Addam Marbrand does not seem to cut up about it. No Marbrands are mentioned amongst Robb's prisoners in the Appendix.

Probably fleed the castle after hearing that Robb was comming for them, or a minor mistake by GRRM. It wouldn't change much as we see other lords like Jast being released later on.

2 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

We do. Cat gives the number of 3,500. We can assume the Freys that were with Robb, some stayed at Riverrun, bumped this up to around 4k.

These are the numbers at the Twins after Robb had lost the Freys and the Karstarks, and the mercenary company from Tyrosh remained in the west according to GRRM.

The Frey cavalry that was with Robb in the West was about 1k and they commander was Black walder, the ones that leave Robb in Riverrun were under Perwyn and Martyn Frey. 

Robb had 6k in the Whispering Woods:

And if it comes to that, she wondered, will thirty be enough? Will six thousand be enough?

2 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

 So 4,500, give or take, with Robb after Oxcross and before he angered the Freys.

Maybe, but everywhere that I looked for, gived the number around 6k, but again, is never said in the books.

2 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Yes, he does. For one the portion of the 4k that retreated with Forely Prester from Riverrun to the Golden Tooth. For another the remnants of the army at Oxcross that retreated back to Lannisport.

A good part of those men were at Oxcross and either scarred or butchered acording to GRRM.

First; did Ser Forley Prester send any part of his 4000 men at the Golden Tooth to Ser Stafford Lannister at Oxcross, in order to augment his host? Or were they all kept at the Tooth by Prester?

That's much too big a garrison for a small castle like the Tooth, so I expect that he sent many of them down to Ser Stafford. Blooded veterans to help train the raw green levies... of course, that didn't work out too well..

 

2 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

 If the Westerlings, a pretty low ranking House, had a garrison of a conservative 100, then we can assume the other Houses, the actual rich Houses or Houses near borders, would have even greater number of men.

We have no idea how big was the garrison of the Craig. Harrenhal was guarded by 300, a 100 for the craig sounds too much, we should not toss numbers in the wind, the only think we know is that the castle was poorly defended.

Tywin has no reserves, the army at Oxcross was a rag tag trying to get ready, and on Tywin's army we already saw signs of a rabble in his van:

the vanguard was made up of the sweepings of the west: mounted archers in leather jerkins, a swarming mass of undisciplined freeriders and sellswords, fieldhands on plow horses armed with scythes and their fathers’ rusted swords, half-trained boys from the stews of Lannisport

Robb brought with him 20k from the north and when other houses like the Umbers try to form another army they are grey beards or green boys. Tywin drafted 35k just at the start, and then god knows how many more into Stafford host. is pretty clear that he was scrapping the barrel.

2 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

But they are hugely important when dealing with armies of similar training and equipement. The North does not have an advantage in either over Tywin on this one.

Agree, but the terrain in on their favor.

2 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

So what you are saying is that a home army was able to defeat a foreign army, were the home side was able to use their greater knowledge of the territory to defend their position. 

No. I'm saying that the army that choose the battle field was able to negate the huge numbers and beat the bigger army comming at them...

2 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Yes, in all of those battles the home side won. This idea that an outside army, similarly equipped and trained (and that is being generous) would beat the much larger home side is statistically improbable.

 

The home side was the one choosing the place... but I can always go for invaders getting the momento and using the terrains to their advantage, Richard lion heart did this in Jaffa.

2 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Yes. They found a secret entrance into the West and pounced on an army who had no idea Robb could get into the West undetected.

 

I was thinking more about the battle of the camps there where he used the river to stop each camp on helping the other and inflicted 8k casualities, but sure, the fact that Robb is able with his magic wolf to scout the area better than Tywin's bannerman gives him a huge edge on planning his campaing.

 

2 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

What conditions has he set up?

 

The terrain.

2 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

And we've had this conversation dozens of times. It is possible that Robb could win, but hugely unlikely given the odds.

Every time we have this conversation I ask you to reverse the situation. Would Tywin, with 4,500 men, beat Ned and a 20k plus army, in the North? You always seem to ignore this point.

Depends on how the books frame it.

For example I do belive that Stannis will win the battle of the Ice, on Roose's home turf with a much lower quality army.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

It does not make sense to be about the Riverlands, Robb is already being refered as King, with houses comming to swear to Bran, the news of Robb freeing the Riverlands have already happened, the only castle Tywin holds there is HH and maybe Darry.

He took a number of castles at the start of the war, such as the Blackwoods castle,

"Your father and I have been marching on each in turn," Ser Kevan said. "With Lord Blackwood gone, Raventree fell at once, and Lady Whent yielded Harrenhal for want of men to defend it. Ser Gregor burnt out the Pipers and the Brackens …"

and the Riverlanders retook them in the aftermath of Riverrun.

They've scattered like quail, each man trying to protect his own, and it's folly, Cat, folly. Jonos Bracken was wounded in the fighting amidst the ruins of his castle, and his nephew Hendry slain. Tytos Blackwood's swept the Lannisters off his lands, but they took every cow and pig and speck of grain and left him nothing to defend but Raventree Hall and a scorched desert. Darry men recaptured their lord's keep but held it less than a fortnight before Gregor Clegane descended on them and put the whole garrison to the sword, even their lord."

So it may well be that these are several castles that were being talked about as they changed sides once again. These would all be victories for Robb.

Again, I'm just saying it is a possibility, just like the castles in the Westerlands is a possibility. There is a question mark over it.

I'm not sure what you want from this exchange? To declare that your opinion is correct and all other is wrong? I'm sorry dude I can't do that with this case as the line is open to interpretation given the other information we have and the lack of mentions of other castles.  I've been very clear on this, you might be right, you might be wrong.

Quote

We hear very little of the Craig and even less about Ashmark.

But we do hear about them multiple times.

Thirty-five hundred they were, thirty-five hundred who had been blooded in the Whispering Wood, who had reddened their swords at the Battle of the Camps, at Oxcross, Ashemark, and the Crag, and all through the gold-rich hills of the Lannister west

Never a mention about any other castle or House who has lost their lands to Robb.

Quote

 

The Craig is brough more because the Westerlings played a major factor, other castles were not relevant for the story or for the war.

Sorry, have to do this as it is The Crag.

How were they not relevant but Ashemark was? The mines of Nunn's Deep, Pendric Hills and Castamere were but actual castles were not?

No mention from Robb or the people in the Riverlands about these other Westerland castles. Specific mention of Robb being  in a difficult position to take castles due to no siege equipment.

Quote

Probably fleed the castle after hearing that Robb was comming for them, or a minor mistake by GRRM. It wouldn't change much as we see other lords like Jast being released later on.

But the whole point, this early in the campaign, was that no one knew Robb was in the Westerlands. The reason Oxcross was the success it was is because Robb was thought of having no way into the West.

Also, and this is a major flaw in your idea here, is that Castles are what people fled to, not what they fled from. People in villages and other smaller settlements would flee to castles when enemy armies were in the region.

Hearing about an enemy army on horseback and then deciding to flee one castle to another is an actual bad idea.

Quote

These are the numbers at the Twins after Robb had lost the Freys and the Karstarks, and the mercenary company from Tyrosh remained in the west according to GRRM.

Yes, I've gone over the numbers with you. They include those numbers in the 3,500 sans casualties.

What mercenary company? The Tyroshi was one man, not a company. GRRM refers to him as one man who was leading Jaime's freeriders, not an actual Tyroshu sellsword company.

He also does not say they remained in the West, he is unclear where they are, they could still be with Robb or deserted.

 

Quote

The Frey cavalry that was with Robb in the West was about 1k and they commander was Black walder, the ones that leave Robb in Riverrun were under Perwyn and Martyn Frey. 

No, the Frey cavalry before the Battle of the Whispering Wood and the Battle of the Camps was about 1,000. Obviously, like Robb's 5,000 cavalry, there would have been casualties from these two battles.

After that the majority went with Robb West, but a small contingent stayed at Riverrun, we see this when Cat notices the Frey's leaving Riverrun in anger when, unbeknownst to Cat at the time, when they hear of Robb's marriage.

Of the Freys who went with Robb there would have been casualties at Oxcross, so overall a rough estimation, going over the losses Robb lost to his army, would give us an estimate of around 750 Freys with Robb after Oxcross.

Quote

Robb had 6k in the Whispering Woods:

And if it comes to that, she wondered, will thirty be enough? Will six thousand be enough?

He did. I said as much in the post you quoted. 5k Northmen, 1k Freys.

Robb's 5k Northmen was whittled down to under 3,500 Northmen by the time he arrived back at the Twins. He lost around 25% of his force from battle of the Camps, Oxcross and Whispering Wood. I included the Karstarks in this estimation as, infact the estimate I gave was pretty conservative.

Quote

Maybe, but everywhere that I looked for, gived the number around 6k, but again, is never said in the books.

We can work it out given we know Robb and the Frey's start number, Robb's end number, the Karstark's start number and end number (Zero with Robb by the time of their desertion), as well as other figures such as the Westerlings added to Robb's numbers and the Freys who remained at home.

Roughly, give or take, Robb will have had around 4,5k in the West after Oxcross.

Quote

A good part of those men were at Oxcross and either scarred or butchered acording to GRRM.

First; did Ser Forley Prester send any part of his 4000 men at the Golden Tooth to Ser Stafford Lannister at Oxcross, in order to augment his host? Or were they all kept at the Tooth by Prester?

That's much too big a garrison for a small castle like the Tooth, so I expect that he sent many of them down to Ser Stafford. Blooded veterans to help train the raw green levies... of course, that didn't work out too well..

 

Yes, but not all. I really don't want to be rude, but I was pretty clear with what I said 'portion of the 4k'.

I'm well aware of that quote, why did you think I simply did not write 4k if I was not already aware of that quote?

 

Quote

We have no idea how big was the garrison of the Craig.

We have a little idea. Robb comes back with 50 Westerling soldiers, we know that Westerling men died in that assault. We can also be reasonably sure that some men chose to stay home rather than abandon their home and families.

I was being conservative with 100.

Quote

 

Harrenhal was guarded by 300, a 100 for the craig sounds too much, we should not toss numbers in the wind, the only think we know is that the castle was poorly defended.

How does it sound too much? We know for a fact that Robb brings 50 Westerland men to Riverrun.

"Dare I ask how many swords come with your bride, Robb?"
"Fifty. A dozen knights." His voice was glum, as well it might be.
 
And we know men died in the Storming of the Crag, Robb talks about how Greywind killed a child. It not unreasonable to think that some men also stayed behind.
Quote

Tywin has no reserves,

You keep on saying this, making an absolute statement with nothing to back this up.

Quote

 

the army at Oxcross was a rag tag trying to get ready, and on Tywin's army we already saw signs of a rabble in his van:

the vanguard was made up of the sweepings of the west: mounted archers in leather jerkins, a swarming mass of undisciplined freeriders and sellswords, fieldhands on plow horses armed with scythes and their fathers’ rusted swords, half-trained boys from the stews of Lannisport

Sorry, but you have no idea what you are talking about here. Every army has such men. Robb's 18k had more men like this than Tywin's 20k

And yet there was sense in what they said. This host her son had assembled was not a standing army such as the Free Cities were accustomed to maintain, nor a force of guardsmen paid in coin. Most of them were smallfolk: crofters, fieldhands, fishermen, sheepherders, the sons of innkeeps and traders and tanners, leavened with a smattering of sellswords and freeriders hungry for plunder. When their lords called, they came … but not forever.

And yet we no Robb had reserves. Why are you not being consistent?

 

Quote

 

Agree, but the terrain in on their favor.

How do that know that?

In each of your examples the home side won because they knew the terrain better. Twyin is the home side, Robb is the outsider.

Now I am not saying there does not exist such terrain in the West that Tywin and none of his army, scouts and other advisors don't know about, but unless Robb is a telepath he has no way of knowing which lands fall into this criteria.

Quote

No. I'm saying that the army that choose the battle field was able to negate the huge numbers and beat the bigger army comming at them...

The home army dealing with army that was strangers to that land. Those examples you gave favour Tywin, not Robb.

Quote

The home side was the one choosing the place... but I can always go for invaders getting the momento and using the terrains to their advantage, Richard lion heart did this in Jaffa.

How was the Sultan of Egypt the home side in that battle?

And I really don't understand your point here. Time and time again I have said that the odds were hugely in Tywin's favour. I have never said that Robb could not win, just that it was unlikely.

You trying to look for examples when the smaller army means little, these are exceptions, not the rule. You will eventually stumble on some examples that actually fit your narrative, you've yet to do so thus far, will not change the point I made.

Quote

I was thinking more about the battle of the camps there where he used the river to stop each camp on helping the other and inflicted 8k casualities,

We don't know how many casualties he inflicted. It could be 8k, but we know of the 4k that left without battle and we know some made it back to Tywin.

But yes, Robb, with Riverlands on side, like the Blackfish, Mallisters and Freys, will have better understanding of the terrain than the outside Westerland army.

 

Quote

 

but sure, the fact that Robb is able with his magic wolf to scout the area better than Tywin's bannerman gives him a huge edge on planning his campaing.

How?

For terrain to work to one sides advantage one side needs to know what the other side does not. Robb has no way of knowing what the Lannister side does and does not know about their own terrain.

The terrain only really works against foreign invaders, not so much the home side. This makes it an unrealistic plan.

 

Quote

 

The terrain.

He's not set them up though. It is impossible for him to set them up, what he has done is a hail mary.

Quote

Depends on how the books frame it.

No. We are talking about the plan itself. GRRM can make anything work, it is a fictional universe of his creation.

What we are talking about is the 'plan' Robb had where he was going to defeat an enemy (or even dictate what they could and could not do)

 

  • In their own territory
  • Much larger than his army
  • With more Cavalry
  • and greater access to supplies
  • and greater access to reserve forces
  • and greater access to less time-consuming camps

So the plan itself is heavily against Robb. That is what I am talking about. Obviously the author can doe what he pleases in his fictional universe, he could have Hot Pie single handedly beat the Lannister and Tyrell army in the field if he wanted to.

GRRM making a long shot plan work is not the issue here. We are talking about the plan itself and the plan, given all the information we have, looks awful.

Quote

For example I do belive that Stannis will win the battle of the Ice, on Roose's home turf with a much lower quality army.

The armies, as I understand it, are not that far apart. Stannis' own men are meant to be of a decent quality while the other parts of his Northern host are off a lesser quality, however the same is true for many of the Frey's and some of Roose's forces.

That is a far more even split battle than Robb's plan. And on top of that we have the fact that some of Roose's forces, such as the Manderlys, may well switch sides.

 

 

Edited by Bernie Mac

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Again, I'm just saying it is a possibility, just like the castles in the Westerlands is a possibility. There is a question mark over it.

 

That's probably the closest I could make you agree with me, but fine, let's leave like that.

12 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Sorry, have to do this as it is The Crag.

How were they not relevant but Ashemark was? The mines of Nunn's Deep, Pendric Hills and Castamere were but actual castles were not?

No mention from Robb or the people in the Riverlands about these other Westerland castles. Specific mention of Robb being  in a difficult position to take castles due to no siege equipment.

No problem, English is not my first language so I will make some mistakes, hope you can forgive them.

Unless Robb takes Casterly rock or Lannisport it would not change the course of the war. This is what a mean, not that would be pointless, it would just not be a game changing. The Crag was a game changing because Robb f# up.

Robb says that he couldn't take the Rock or Lannisport, but he never says anything about other castles... his initial plan was to take the Golden Tooth, like Theo explained to Balon.

12 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

How does it sound too much? We know for a fact that Robb brings 50 Westerland men to Riverrun.

 "Dare I ask how many swords come with your bride, Robb?"
"Fifty. A dozen knights." His voice was glum, as well it might be.
 
And we know men died in the Storming of the Crag, Robb talks about how Greywind killed a child. It not unreasonable to think that some men also stayed behind.

If Riverrun that is a fortress, and Harenhall that is a monster are guarded by 200 and 300, the Crag being guarded by 100 seems too much for me, even more when Robb says that it was poorly protected.

12 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

We don't know how many casualties he inflicted. It could be 8k, but we know of the 4k that left without battle and we know some made it back to Tywin.

But yes, Robb, with Riverlands on side, like the Blackfish, Mallisters and Freys, will have better understanding of the terrain than the outside Westerland army.

The knowloge of the terrain was the same. Blackfish knew that Jaime would be forced to split his forces between the rivers to siege Riverrun. Blackfish even says that is the right way to siege the castle but that would be their undoing, Kevan also said the same.

The plan worked because Jaime was reckless chasing some small raids and Tywin send the wrong information to Jaime about Robb's position.

12 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

The home army dealing with army that was strangers to that land. Those examples you gave favour Tywin, not Robb.

All the examples the army that choose the terrain won, sure they were the defenders, but the one rushing and chasing is Tywin, not Robb.

12 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

What we are talking about is the 'plan' Robb had where he was going to defeat an enemy (or even dictate what they could and could not do)

  •  In their own territory
  • Much larger than his army
  • With more Cavalry
  • and greater access to supplies
  • and greater access to reserve forces
  • and greater access to less time-consuming camps

So the plan itself is heavily against Robb. That is what I am talking about. Obviously the author can doe what he pleases in his fictional universe, he could have Hot Pie single handedly beat the Lannister and Tyrell army in the field if he wanted to.

GRRM making a long shot plan work is not the issue here. We are talking about the plan itself and the plan, given all the information we have, looks awful.

Quote

Robb already found paths that were not know to the Lannisters, Blackfish is the best scouter presented in the books and the Young Wolf has a magic direwolf capable of finding secret passages.

I've already said this, but again, numbers are not everything.

Tywin also has more mouths to feed, it would take longer to gather supplies and 

Tywin has no reserves, his reserve was destroyed at Oxcross, and they were already "green boys and the sweeping of lannisport"

I don't know what you means by "greater access to less time-consuming camps". If you are implying that Tywin will move faster than Robb you are going against what the Blackfish says.

The plan is framed as Robb's chance to beat Tywin and Edmure ruined, that's how the books potrait them, we got no character debating if this was viable or that it would fail. Edmure is constatly pushed as a incompetent commander and Blackfish is constatly pushed as some legendary warrior.

12 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

How do that know that?

Because Blackfish tells us that, and is the only information that we have: 

“We were all horsed,” Ser Brynden said. “The Lannister host was mainly foot. We planned to run Lord Tywin a merry chase up and down the coast, then slip behind him to take up a strong defensive position athwart the gold road, at a place my scouts had found where the ground would have been greatly in our favor. If he had come at us there, he would have paid a grievous price. But if he did not attack, he would have been trapped in the west, a thousand leagues from where he needed to be. All the while we would have lived off his land, instead of him living off ours.”

You are fighting against the books.

12 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

The armies, as I understand it, are not that far apart. Stannis' own men are meant to be of a decent quality while the other parts of his Northern host are off a lesser quality, however the same is true for many of the Frey's and some of Roose's forces.

That is a far more even split battle than Robb's plan. And on top of that we have the fact that some of Roose's forces, such as the Manderlys, may well switch sides.

The numbers are more even, but Stannis knights are cleary potrait as unfit in the north, with the mountain clans doing much better during the march. Stannis army is also starving, freezing, facing desertion and so on. If this was a real battle I would bet on Roose 9 out 10 times, but that is not how the books frame it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

That's probably the closest I could make you agree with me, but fine, let's leave like that.

?

I'm not sure your point, I've not changed my position at all on that one. That is exactly my point to begin with.

12 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

 

Unless Robb takes Casterly rock or Lannisport it would not change the course of the war. This is what a mean, not that would be pointless,

How would it be pointless to be told about them? But not pointless to be told about the various mines or even the sheep being taken?

 

Quote

it would just not be a game changing. The Crag was a game changing because Robb f# up.

The Crag was mentioned frequently before news of Robb's marriage.

We get multiple mentions of both Ashemark and the Crag. No other Westerland castle is mentioned. Seems strange, no?

Quote

Robb says that he couldn't take the Rock or Lannisport, but he never says anything about other castles... his initial plan was to take the Golden Tooth, like Theo explained to Balon.

Brilliant. This is my entire point.

Robb had a plan to take the Golden Tooth with only around 5k knights and no siege equipment. Some of Robb's plans are hugely flawed.

Even if he was able to take the Golden Tooth he'd have severely weakened himself and alerted the rest of the Westerlands, including Stafford's army, to his entrance into the Westerlands.

My entire point of this exchange is to highlight how Robb's other plan was unlikely to be successful. He sometimes makes poor plans.

Quote

If Riverrun that is a fortress, and Harenhall that is a monster are guarded by 200 and 300, the Crag being guarded by 100 seems too much for me, even more when Robb says that it was poorly protected.

Let us go over again.

  • I quoted the part of the text that showed that Robb brought back 50 Westerland soldiers to Riverrun
  • How many Westerland men do you think died in the taking of the Crag?
  • How many Westerland men do you think remained to stay with their families and/or protect their castle?

 

Quote

The knowloge of the terrain was the same.

How can it be the same? The Westerland army are outsides, Jaime is an outsider.

The Blackfish is going to have a superior understanding of the Riverrun lands than anyone in Jaime's party. As will the Mallisters and Freys.

Quote

 

Blackfish knew that Jaime would be forced to split his forces between the rivers to siege Riverrun. Blackfish even says that is the right way to siege the castle but that would be their undoing, Kevan also said the same.

Right, the Blackfish, from Riverrun, uses his knowledge of the land to the advantage against a foreign army.

Quote

The plan worked because Jaime was reckless chasing some small raids

It worked for a number of reasons, one of them being the Blackfish' understanding of the castle and surrounding territory than Jaime's army and scouts.

 

Quote

and Tywin send the wrong information to Jaime about Robb's position.

That is an invention on your part, right?

Jaime is in command of his own army with his own scouts. He should not be reliant on his father 50 miles away to be telling him where threats are coming from.

Quote

All the examples the army that choose the terrain won, sure they were the defenders,

Exactly. Poor examples as in this case Tywin's army are the defenders.

Quote

 

but the one rushing and chasing is Tywin, not Robb.

'Rushing'? That is an invention on your part, right?

Quote

Robb already found paths that were not know to the Lannisters,

Yes. One path.

Quote

Blackfish is the best scouter presented in the books

No, he is not. We've been over this. He's a great scout, no one has presented him as the best in the books.

Quote

 

and the Young Wolf has a magic direwolf capable of finding secret passages.

One magic path.

But again, you are ignoring my point. Robb has no way of knowing which territory in the West is familiar and unfamilair with the Westerland host.

Quote

I've already said this, but again, numbers are not everything.

No one has claimed they are. Can you quote where I have said they are everything?

I have said they are important. Do you deny this?

Quote

Tywin also has more mouths to feed, it would take longer to gather supplies

He has access to every castle, every holdfast and their pantries. It will take shorter for Tywin to feed his army than Robb's.

Quote

 

and  Tywin has no reserves,

Except he has. Even at the poor Westerlings, one of the weaker Houses in the West, has reserves.

You keep on saying he has no reserves, the books disagree with you. The army that Daven Lannister brings to Riverrun in AFFC exists in your copies, right?

Quote

 

his reserve was destroyed at Oxcross,

No, the reserves of Lannisport were defeated at Oxcross.

"We have some time yet before we must face them. This lot will be sellswords, freeriders, and green boys from the stews of Lannisport. Ser Stafford must see that they are armed and drilled before he dare risk battle . ."

There is no mention of them being raised from other regions of the West. Stafford, unlike Rodrik, does not wait for half a year to raise his host.

They retreated back to Lannisport, not entirely destroyed.

"Our cousin Ser Daven is reforming the remnants of his late father's army at Lannisport."

So yet more reserves, and this is just from the Lannisport region.

Quote

 

and they were already "green boys and the sweeping of lannisport"

Yes, exactly. Just one city, not the entire West. There is also no indication that Stafford took with him the pikemen of Lannisport with him

GRRM: "...and the City Watch of Lannisport is well trained as well... much better than their counterparts in Oldtown and King's Landing"

So yet more reserves in the West to be called upon.

Quote

I don't know what you means by "greater access to less time-consuming camps".

I mean he has access to every castle, every town, every holdfast in the Westerlands.

Quote

 

If you are implying that Tywin will move faster than Robb you are going against what the Blackfish says.

No offence, but the Blackfish can be wrong. Common sense dictates he is on this one.

I mean we know he was wrong automatically when he claimed he had more cavalry than Tywin as we know, from, Tyrion, that Tywin had over 7k horsed.

Quote

The plan is framed as Robb's chance to beat Tywin and Edmure ruined,

The plan sounds poor given the information we have.

  • Tywin has more men
  • Tywin's side will be far more familiar with the terrtitority
  • Tywin's side has more cavarly
  • Tywin's side will have access to every settlement in the West, plus their pantries
  • Tywin's side will be able to pick up the reserves of the West, such as the men at Lannisport and Golden Tooth
  • Robb has no way of stopping Tywin turning around
  • Robb has no way of doing anything about the Tyrells joining the Crown's side

All evidence points to Robb being wrong. Now maybe he was genuine in his belief, maybe he needed Edmure to believe that he was at fault, either his plan ___WITH ALL THE INFORMATION WE HAVE__ makes Robb's plan look unlikely to succeed.

Your entire argument seems to be under the assumption that Robb can't be wrong. We know that he can.

Quote

 

that's how the books potrait them, we got no character debating if this was viable or that it would fail. Edmure is constatly pushed as a incompetent commander and Blackfish is constatly pushed as some legendary warrior.

Huge exaggeration on both.

 

Quote

Because Blackfish tells us that, and is the only information that we have: 

No, we have plenty of information.

Quote

 

You are fighting against the books.

No, I am not.

"Both of them." Storm's End was strong, it should have been able to hold out for half a year or more . . . time enough for his father to finish with Robb Stark.

One character says Robb would win, another says Tywin would have won. How am I fighting against the books?

And I'm not basing my opinion on what one character believes, I am basing it on the evidence.

Quote

 

The numbers are more even, but Stannis knights are cleary potrait as unfit in the north,

More unfit than the Freys? Come on!

Stannis warriors in the North are seen as better than most of the Frey men Roose was given.

 

Edited by Bernie Mac

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

I'm not sure your point, I've not changed my position at all on that one. That is exactly my point to begin with.

We won't agree in the end, I won't change your mine and you wont change mine either, but if you are willing to assume the possibility for me already is a progress.

8 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

How would it be pointless to be told about them? But not pointless to be told about the various mines or even the sheep being taken?

 

Gold is always important, the cattle stealling will starve the smallfolks of the Westerlands and feed the smallfolks of the Riverlands, is also a payback moment, showing that Robb, noble as he is, is also capable of evil acts on war and also force injustice to some extend. The castle that were taken are not mentioned by name, but they are mentioned on Luwin's letter.

8 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Brilliant. This is my entire point.

Robb had a plan to take the Golden Tooth with only around 5k knights and no siege equipment. Some of Robb's plans are hugely flawed.

 Even if he was able to take the Golden Tooth he'd have severely weakened himself and alerted the rest of the Westerlands, including Stafford's army, to his entrance into the Westerlands.

My entire point of this exchange is to highlight how Robb's other plan was unlikely to be successful. He sometimes makes poor plans.

Except that Robb is never portrait as inept on his military actions. If anything all his plans worked perfect or were made even better in the end. Robb didn't need siege equipment to take the Crag or Ashmark, why would he need it to take the Golden Tooth that is a small castle by GRRM own words?

 

8 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Except he has. Even at the poor Westerlings, one of the weaker Houses in the West, has reserves.

You keep on saying he has no reserves, the books disagree with you. The army that Daven Lannister brings to Riverrun in AFFC exists in your copies, right?

The army under Daven are the survivors of Oxcross, they were poorly trained, not age fitting less than 2k, mounths after Robb left the west, by the time of the confrontation between Robb and Tywin they were scatered and cleary not presented a significant threat.

They were a inefective force there at Oxcross, and they would be inefective again, but if you count this unready rabble as a reserve than sure, Tywin does has a little tiny bit of reserve.

8 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

There is no mention of them being raised from other regions of the West. Stafford, unlike Rodrik, does not wait for half a year to raise his host.

They retreated back to Lannisport, not entirely destroyed.

"Our cousin Ser Daven is reforming the remnants of his late father's army at Lannisport."

So yet more reserves, and this is just from the Lannisport region.

Several nobles were captured or killed at Oxcross such as Lord Brax, Crackhall, Jast and Vikery

 

8 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

I mean he has access to every castle, every town, every holdfast in the Westerlands.

Thanks for the clarification but how do you see it playing a major factor in the chase or battle

 

8 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

No offence, but the Blackfish can be wrong. Common sense dictates he is on this one.

I mean we know he was wrong automatically when he claimed he had more cavalry than Tywin as we know, from, Tyrion, that Tywin had over 7k horsed.

None taken. Care to support your argmuent with some example of a military situation that he got wrong?

He never claimed that he had more cavalry than Tywin, he says that they were all horse, while Tywin's army was  manly foot and therefore they would travel fast and could safely lead Tywin on a marry chase, please read his quote again, you are getting the facts wrong.

8 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

The plan sounds poor given the information we have.

  • Tywin has more men
  • Tywin's side will be far more familiar with the terrtitority
  • Tywin's side has more cavarly
  • Tywin's side will have access to every settlement in the West, plus their pantries
  • Tywin's side will be able to pick up the reserves of the West, such as the men at Lannisport and Golden Tooth
  • Robb has no way of stopping Tywin turning around
  • Robb has no way of doing anything about the Tyrells joining the Crown's side

All evidence points to Robb being wrong. Now maybe he was genuine in his belief, maybe he needed Edmure to believe that he was at fault, either his plan ___WITH ALL THE INFORMATION WE HAVE__ makes Robb's plan look unlikely to succeed.

Your entire argument seems to be under the assumption that Robb can't be wrong. We know that he can.

We will keep repeating again and again what we said before...

Numbers are not everything, Robb has better and magical scouts, Robb is the one choosing the terrain that was greatly on his favor, Tywin's "reserves" were a bunch of uselles mounths to feed, he army already showed sighs of rabble such as his van on the GF.

I agree that Robb could not stop the Tyrells from joining the Crown, but this is not what we are arguing here.

8 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

"Both of them." Storm's End was strong, it should have been able to hold out for half a year or more . . . time enough for his father to finish with Robb Stark.

One character says Robb would win, another says Tywin would have won. How am I fighting against the books?

And I'm not basing my opinion on what one character believes, I am basing it on the evidence.

Because Tyrion was never wrong about Robb before right? 

It seemed to him that Robb Stark had given them a golden chance. Let the boy wait at Riverrun dreaming of an easy peace. Tyrion would reply with terms of his own, giving the King in the North just enough of what he wanted to keep him hopeful. Let Ser Cleos wear out his bony Frey rump riding to and fro with offers and counters. All the while, their cousin Ser Stafford would be training and arming the new host he’d raised at Casterly Rock. Once he was ready, he and Lord Tywin could smash the Tullys and Starks between them.

The Lannisters have a history of underastimating Robb, Robb and the Blackfish do not have such a history with Tywin.

8 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

More unfit than the Freys? Come on!

Stannis warriors in the North are seen as better than most of the Frey men Roose was given.

Valid point, but the Freys are feed, while Stannis's knights are starving. 

To quote Napoleon

"An army's effectiveness depends on its size, training, experience and morale and morale is worth more than any of the other factors combined".

And Roose also has warriors from the north.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

That is an invention on your part, right?

Jaime is in command of his own army with his own scouts. He should not be reliant on his father 50 miles away to be telling him where threats are coming from.

No, Tywin does sends word to Jaime before marching against Robb.

“The boy may hang back or lose his courage when he sees our numbers,” Lord Tywin replied. “The sooner the Starks are broken, the sooner I shall be free to deal with Stannis Baratheon. Tell the drummers to beat assembly, and send word to Jaime that I am marching against Robb Stark.”

8 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Huge exaggeration on both.

 

Not really, the Blackfish from his introduction to flasbacks is always regarded as famous knight,.

"Tully had a craggy face, deeply lined and windburnt beneath a shock of stiff grey hair, but Jaime could still see the great knight who once enthralled a squire with tales of the Ninepenny Kings."

Edmure on the other hand is always potrait as inept.

“Ser Edmure has sent men to every village and holdfast within a day’s ride of the border,” Ser Karyl explained. “The next raider will not have such an easy time of it.”

And that may be precisely what Lord Tywin wants, Ned thought to himself, to bleed off strength from Riverrun, goad the boy into scattering his swords. His wife’s brother was young, and more gallant than wise. He would try to hold every inch of his soil, to defend every man, woman, and child who named him lord, and Tywin Lannister was shrewd enough to know that

 

Is it my fault that your fool brother lost his battle before we could march? I am told the Kingslayer went through him like an axe through ripe cheese

 

Only my sweet brother would crowd all these useless mouths into a castle that might soon be under siege.

 

You owe His Grace your thanks for his forbearance. He played out that mummer’s farce in the Great Hall so as not to shame you before your own people. Had it been me I would have flayed you for your stupidity rather than praising this folly of the fords.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

Not really, the Blackfish from his introduction to flasbacks is always regarded as famous knight,.

"Tully had a craggy face, deeply lined and windburnt beneath a shock of stiff grey hair, but Jaime could still see the great knight who once enthralled a squire with tales of the Ninepenny Kings."

Edmure on the other hand is always potrait as inept.

“Ser Edmure has sent men to every village and holdfast within a day’s ride of the border,” Ser Karyl explained. “The next raider will not have such an easy time of it.”

And that may be precisely what Lord Tywin wants, Ned thought to himself, to bleed off strength from Riverrun, goad the boy into scattering his swords. His wife’s brother was young, and more gallant than wise. He would try to hold every inch of his soil, to defend every man, woman, and child who named him lord, and Tywin Lannister was shrewd enough to know that

Is it my fault that your fool brother lost his battle before we could march? I am told the Kingslayer went through him like an axe through ripe cheese

Only my sweet brother would crowd all these useless mouths into a castle that might soon be under siege.

You owe His Grace your thanks for his forbearance. He played out that mummer’s farce in the Great Hall so as not to shame you before your own people. Had it been me I would have flayed you for your stupidity rather than praising this folly of the fords.

Those quotes hammer home the fact that Edmure, while not being exactly the greatest military mind, does his best to actually protect his people, the smallfolk of the Riverlands, which he sees as his duty as the (future) Lord of Riverrun.

Brynden Tully and Robb Stark don't care much about any of that. In fact, @Bernie Mac very well documented it that the actual Riverlanders - the common people - see the Northern army of Robb Stark as much as invaders and parasites as the lions from the West. Robb never was any king of theirs. If they had a king it was our (late) Good King Robert, the one still acknowledged by the Brotherhood without Banners. And it is pretty obvious why they hold this view - both Lannister and Stark men in the Riverlands lived off the lands of the Rivermen. They stole their food - cattle, pigs, and grain. And none of them would have liked that one bit - even those who were positively inclined towards the Tullys and technically understood why the Starks were there.

In fact, if you turn to the one report on the War of the Ninepenny Kings we have from a commoner source (the story of Septon Meribald) does very much imply that this war was a shit show for the common people fighting in it - something that certainly reflects badly on the ultimate commanders of the army from the Riverlands, Hoster and Brynden Tully.

Sure, part of the reason why things were this bad would have been due to the fact that they were invading foreign territory, didn't know much about the terrain, had to fight multiple battles on many islands before Maelys the Monstrous was finally slain, etc.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Those quotes hammer home the fact that Edmure, while not being exactly the greatest military mind, does his best to actually protect his people, the smallfolk of the Riverlands, which he sees as his duty as the (future) Lord of Riverrun.

Brynden Tully and Robb Stark don't care much about any of that. In fact, @Bernie Mac very well documented it that the actual Riverlanders - the common people - see the Northern army of Robb Stark as much as invaders and parasites as the lions from the West. Robb never was any king of theirs. If they had a king it was our (late) Good King Robert, the one still acknowledged by the Brotherhood without Banners. And it is pretty obvious why they hold this view - both Lannister and Stark men in the Riverlands lived off the lands of the Rivermen. They stole their food - cattle, pigs, and grain. And none of them would have liked that one bit - even those who were positively inclined towards the Tullys and technically understood why the Starks were there.

In fact, if you turn to the one report on the War of the Ninepenny Kings we have from a commoner source (the story of Septon Meribald) does very much imply that this war was a shit show for the common people fighting in it - something that certainly reflects badly on the ultimate commanders of the army from the Riverlands, Hoster and Brynden Tully.

Sure, part of the reason why things were this bad would have been due to the fact that they were invading foreign territory, didn't know much about the terrain, had to fight multiple battles on many islands before Maelys the Monstrous was finally slain, etc.

I expect that foraging was much the same on both sides, but there was a lot more arson, murder, and rape, on the part of the Lannisters (although, those acts were also perpetrated by Northmen).  Unpleasant those it is, the Riverlands are probably fertile enough to cope with foraging. 

My suspicion is that Hoster Tully was rather an unpleasant man. He had no qualms about torching the villages of a lord who defied him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, SeanF said:

I expect that foraging was much the same on both sides, but there was a lot more arson, murder, and rape, on the part of the Lannisters (although, those acts were also perpetrated by Northmen).  Unpleasant those it is, the Riverlands are probably fertile enough to cope with foraging. 

Well, once the Bloody Mummers became 'Northmen' 'King Robb' had his very own bloody dogs without ever realizing it. The smallfolk they raped and killed and stole from won't give a damn that 'King Robb' likely never knew nor authorized things like that.

And I wouldn't downplay the part of the Northmen in all this - Robb's own army was pretty small and left for the West very early in ACoK - the people from whom we learn about the ways the wolves behaved are almost exclusively Arya chapters who never ended up being in regions of the Riverlands where Robb's army ever marched through.

It doesn't seem as if Roose Bolton and any of the lords in his army were particularly nice doing their foraging (even before Hoat switched sides). And neither was the army under Tallhart and Glover attacking Duskendale, one assumes.

And things would have gotten even worse after Rickard Karstark sent some of his men to hunt for Jaime in the Riverlands and after the Karstark men abandoned Robb after he had executed their lord. Those men leaving Riverrun seemed to have turned mostly to banditry, likely being still a plague in the Riverlands if the outlaws and Tarly didn't put most of them down.

6 minutes ago, SeanF said:

My suspicion is that Hoster Tully was rather an unpleasant man. He had no qualms about torching the villages of a lord who defied him.

Sure, that much is a given - although the Tullys not being nice overlords is understandable considering their apparent weak hold on the Riverlands in general. They cannot show any weakness if a more than a few of their own bannermen have larger lands than they directly control, can field more men, or are controlling more wealth than they are.

But settling such differences at the cost of poor villagers is definitely shitty.

And this is part of the reason why I expect a huge chunk of the Riverlands to declare for Aegon - after ther Crownlands the Riverlands should be the region where the Targaryens have the most support, both among the smallfolk and the (lesser) nobility.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, SeanF said:

I expect that foraging was much the same on both sides, but there was a lot more arson, murder, and rape, on the part of the Lannisters (although, those acts were also perpetrated by Northmen).  Unpleasant those it is, the Riverlands are probably fertile enough to cope with foraging. 

My suspicion is that Hoster Tully was rather an unpleasant man. He had no qualms about torching the villages of a lord who defied him.

As Duke-equivalents with the unenviable position of being both near-peers of their nominal subordinate houses and with those said houses freely forming links to other Duke-equivalents (and even the Royal house), I'm sympathetic. The Tully's are possibly only ever one really bad generation away from losing it; House Lannister could survive Tywin's dad, House Tully probably couldn't. They have to take that sort off thing deathly seriously once it gets to that point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, SeanF said:

I expect that foraging was much the same on both sides, but there was a lot more arson, murder, and rape, on the part of the Lannisters (although, those acts were also perpetrated by Northmen). 

I don't know about that, from everything we have read from the smallfolk talking about it, they equate the two.

The residents of Harrenhal even say they preferred it under Tywin to Roose and we see a literal rape camp set up in the middle of the castle by Robb's faction.

Consider our sources, Brienne, Arya and Jaime get their information from people in the Riverlands who don't know who they are. The only POV who gives a one sided account of the atrocities in the Riverlands is Cat, who is fed her information by other people on Robb's side. Cat's vision of the war is more likely going to have the taint of propaganda than the vision the smallfolk have experience.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

No, Tywin does sends word to Jaime before marching against Robb.

Woah there.

I pointed out that Jaime would not be reliant on his father to tell him where Robb was. Tywin letting his son know his own position does not change that.

Are you really under the impression that Jaime did not have his own scouts? And was not expected to know himself of potential threats? Yes or No please.

7 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

Not really, the Blackfish from his introduction to flasbacks is always regarded as famous knight,.

Yes. I have not disputed that.  I disputed legendary and incompetent, none of your quotes suggest that.

Barristan, Dayne, Jaime, Robert are legendary warriors. The Blackfish, as great as he is, is not seen to be in their company.

Similarly, Edmure is not seen as incompetent as you suggest, for one the other Riverlords would not have praised him on his plan against Tywin if that was the case.

All I said is that you exaggerated what you said, your quotes kind of show this to be true. Ned does not think of Edmure as incompetent, he calls him more gallant than wise, which is not exactly an uncommon description in their era.

Just to be clear, I don't think someone is either incompetent, or legendary, there is far more nuance to a subject than that. Perhaps you might think there are only two possibilities and that is why we disagree, but I'm just letting you know my stance.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×