NBA Season 2020 - RIP Mamba

[Rhom]

My son wanted to watch Space Jam tonight.  $2 to my Amazonian Overlords later, we’re watching Michael take on the MonStars.

I had forgotten that the NBA treated the lost talent like a virus and players refused to go into the dressing room and the league shut down the season for the “health and safety” of their players.  This may be too soon for me to be watching this...  

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

22 minutes ago, Rhom said:

My son wanted to watch Space Jam tonight.  $2 to my Amazonian Overlords later, we’re watching Michael take on the MonStars.

I had forgotten that the NBA treated the lost talent like a virus and players refused to go into the dressing room and the league shut down the season for the “health and safety” of their players.  This may be too soon for me to be watching this...  

First time?

[Rhom]

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

First time?

First time for him.  My first time in two and a half decades!

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

19 minutes ago, Rhom said:

First time for him.  My first time in two and a half decades!

It's time for the boy.

[DMC]

What kind of Mickey Mouse organization would name their team the Ducks?

[Sir Thursday]

So how do people see the NBA's bubble experiment going? I don't know if they'll manage to keep everything isolated enough to remain COVID-free, and if you do see some cases it may significantly skew the results (eg. if a significant player has to sit out a playoff series).

However, assuming they manage to stay COVID-free, seems like there are quite a few ways this is going to be different:

• There has been some time to recover from the grind of the NBA season. Probably helps older teams more? Maybe also teams that play small?
• No crowds = no home court advantage. Means favoured teams are likely to win more often (you're not going to get weaker teams winning games they wouldn't be expected to on the back of a raucous home crowd).
• Second training camp allows teams with mid-season acquisitions time to get them properly acclimatised that they wouldn't necessarily have had otherwise.
• No travel, which probably benefits teams that play a long way away from everyone else (or I guess those with players who don't handle flying very well either physically or psychologically).
• Limited off court distractions. You always hear about how some NBA players live the party lifestyle...I wonder whether taking that away will make them play better or worse?

So who comes out best out of all that? I'd have thought the Lakers would be primed to benefit (strong team, mostly older, healthy LeBron). Maybe the Rockets too (play small, older team, fairly drastic mid-season trade). Might hurt Utah and Denver who don't get the benefits of altitude? Still seems like the Bucks jugganaut has to be the favourite at this point to me though...

ST

[Maithanet]

27 minutes ago, Sir Thursday said:

So how do people see the NBA's bubble experiment going? I don't know if they'll manage to keep everything isolated enough to remain COVID-free, and if you do see some cases it may significantly skew the results (eg. if a significant player has to sit out a playoff series).

However, assuming they manage to stay COVID-free, seems like there are quite a few ways this is going to be different:

• There has been some time to recover from the grind of the NBA season. Probably helps older teams more? Maybe also teams that play small?
• No crowds = no home court advantage. Means favoured teams are likely to win more often (you're not going to get weaker teams winning games they wouldn't be expected to on the back of a raucous home crowd).
• Second training camp allows teams with mid-season acquisitions time to get them properly acclimatised that they wouldn't necessarily have had otherwise.
• No travel, which probably benefits teams that play a long way away from everyone else (or I guess those with players who don't handle flying very well either physically or psychologically).
• Limited off court distractions. You always hear about how some NBA players live the party lifestyle...I wonder whether taking that away will make them play better or worse?

So who comes out best out of all that? I'd have thought the Lakers would be primed to benefit (strong team, mostly older, healthy LeBron). Maybe the Rockets too (play small, older team, fairly drastic mid-season trade). Might hurt Utah and Denver who don't get the benefits of altitude? Still seems like the Bucks jugganaut has to be the favourite at this point to me though...

ST

I am pretty pessimistic about the bubble experiment.  I think that COVID is going to get in because it's not a true bubble, and having it in Florida of all places was a horrible idea.  If the testing they're doing is fast enough maybe they'll be able to keep it from spreading out of control and just have a few little flare ups.  But we've already had one star on a contending team (Westbrook) come down with the virus, and who knows if he will make a complete recovery in time for the playoffs. 

So best case scenario IMO is that when people get the virus it is contained and it's only players, rather than entire teams, that have to sit out.  This would be another layer of random injury luck, which is always a factor in determining a champion.

But I kinda don't think it's gonna go that well, I expect that some teams are going to lose 4 or 6 or 8 players at the same time, and thus be effectively eliminated by COVID.  And if that happens to the Lakers or Clippers or Bucks, then the championship is kinda invalid.  If it happens to several teams, at some point the NBA is going to have to call the whole thing off. 

I hope I'm being too pessimistic.  The bubble is at least an honest attempt by the NBA to address the COVID problem and keep people safe, which is better than any other team sports league in this country.  So I really hope they can pull it off.  But it's hard to be optimistic about anything right now. 

[Wilbur]

It has been interesting to see the NBA bubble from the inside on JaVale McGee and Matisse Thybulle's video channels.

https://www.youtube.com/c/JaValeMcGee/videos

https://www.youtube.com/c/Matisse/videos

The rest of professional sports NEEDS the NBA bubble to work for them to get back into play.  MLB and the NFL have to be watching this very closely and hoping and praying that it is enough, and that sports can resume.  If it fails, a lot of people are going to be losing some money.

[Fez]

I'm pessimistic about the bubble working out as well. But, assuming it actually does, I think talent shines through the same way it usually does, and a Lakers-Bucks finals is the most likely outcome.

One big question mark though (besides all the different ways the bubble could fail), is whether recovery from the virus impacts any players. Westbrook has/had the virus, and it seems likely that Harden did/does too. They're the biggest confirmed names, but there's overall there's been something like 30 total players who've tested positive. So far it seems like every professional athlete that has had it has recovered without lasting damage (though Rudy Gobert did say a couple weeks ago that he still couldn't smell or taste things properly), but none of them have done anything quite as exhausting as playoff basketball. If Westbrook's lung capacity is even 1% worse than it was before, that could be all the difference in a key moment.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Sir Thursday said:

 

• No crowds = no home court advantage. Means favoured teams are likely to win more often (you're not going to get weaker teams winning games they wouldn't be expected to on the back of a raucous home crowd).

So who comes out best out of all that? I'd have thought the Lakers would be primed to benefit (strong team, mostly older, healthy LeBron). Maybe the Rockets too (play small, older team, fairly drastic mid-season trade). Might hurt Utah and Denver who don't get the benefits of altitude? Still seems like the Bucks jugganaut has to be the favourite at this point to me though...

ST

I think the team that clearly benefits the most from the bubble, assuming it works, is the Clippers. Kawhi is going to need to load amange for the rest of his career as it appears is leg injury is chronic. This break is a huge boost for him. But even more importantly than that, the Lakers and the Clippers inevitably were going to have to cross paths in the playoffs, and when that happened, every game would be a home game for the Lakers. That's gone now.

[Maithanet]

If the playoffs are played and reasonably representative of the best teams, I expect the Clippers will win.  James+Brow is only slightly better than Kawhi/George, and beyond that, the Clippers are a far superior squad (particularly with the Lakers losing two guards recently). 

I expect either team to beat the Bucks, because Milwaukee just isn't battle tested enough to win a Finals yet.

[Proudfeet]

Yeah, if the Disney staff are still going in and out, someones going to get infected and its going to spread. Maybe it can be contained with their procedures and personal protective equipment and not spread even if someone does test positive, but its a big ask. There's already been some hiccups in that some players broke quarantine or something. With all the people involved, there are just so many chances for things to go wrong.

I'm just hoping Portland makes this exciting and steal the eighth seed. Maybe give the Lakers a scare as well.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

3 hours ago, Maithanet said:

I expect either team to beat the Bucks, because Milwaukee just isn't battle tested enough to win a Finals yet.

Both teams also have a player that can cancel Giannis out, and the Bucks can't do the same to either teams' second star. 

[Sir Thursday]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

Both teams also have a player that can cancel Giannis out, and the Bucks can't do the same to either teams' second star. 

I think Milwaukee have plenty to handle the star pairings. The Bucks' defense is suffocating - you just can't score at the basket against them with their combination of Lopii at the rim and Giannis on the weakside. I think even someone like LeBron is going to struggle to get to the rim against them. To crack them open you either need a good mid-range game (Kawhi can make this work for the Clips but don't really see anyone on the Lakers with that sort of game) or someone who can make their 3s at the 5 spot (and neither of the LA teams have that in their locker).

To me Milwaukee are the favourites. They got a bunch of tough playoff experience even if they didn't make it to the finals, and they're a better team than they were last year. Nobody's stopping them from the East as far as I can see. Philly have taken a step back, Boston need another year together, and the Raptors and Heat I don't think will translate to the post-season. I feel like the Clippers have the best shot to take the Bucks down, but it's a toss up whether they'll be able to get out of the West to square up with them.

I still hold out hope that the Rockets will throw a spanner in all the other teams' plans and get their small ball going now that they finally don't have to deal with the Warriors any more. They looked really good after Westbrook's initial settling in period. The Capela trade means they're a bit of a wildcard too with their unorthodox style. I'm worried Westbrook and Harden might have lingering effects from COVID and not be at their best, but if they are I see them having a good shot at doing some damage. I just hope they don't draw Denver - Rockets have owned them for years but that's because Capela was the ideal opposing centre for Jokic. Don't know if they'll have the same edge without him...

ST

[BigFatCoward]

21 hours ago, Maithanet said:

If the playoffs are played and reasonably representative of the best teams, I expect the Clippers will win.  James+Brow is only slightly better than Kawhi/George, and beyond that, the Clippers are a far superior squad (particularly with the Lakers losing two guards recently). 

I expect either team to beat the Bucks, because Milwaukee just isn't battle tested enough to win a Finals yet.

Apart from lebron and kawhi is anybody on a contender battle tested? 

Surely having the best player, by a distance, is the thing that most often decides championships. 

[Maithanet]

34 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Apart from lebron and kawhi is anybody on a contender battle tested? 

Surely having the best player, by a distance, is the thing that most often decides championships. 

"Battle tested" matters the most for your best players.  I'd definitely say Kawhi and George are battle tested. Paul George has been the best player on multiple deep playoff runs.  Beverly, Morris, and Williams have all been around and are comfortable as playoff role players.  

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Psh, none of those guys have the championship presence that JaVale McGee brings. 

[Sir Thursday]

23 hours ago, Maithanet said:

"Battle tested" matters the most for your best players.  I'd definitely say Kawhi and George are battle tested. Paul George has been the best player on multiple deep playoff runs.  Beverly, Morris, and Williams have all been around and are comfortable as playoff role players.  

I agree that playoff experience is important, but I don't see how the Bucks don't have enough of it. They've made the playoffs the last three years, including a trip to the conference finals last year. It's not like they're completely new to the bright lights! And there's a very obvious recent counter-example to the whole "battle tested" thing - the Golden State Warriors made the playoffs for the first time in forever in 2013, and by 2015 they were good enough to win it all. None of the top players on that team had been to a conference finals before that year. Like the Warriors that season, the Bucks have the best record in the league and the best player in the league. I can't look past them as favourites here.

ST

[Rhom]

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Interesting, it sounds like Glen Taylor is really going to sell the Wolves pretty soon, and KG is trying to buy the team. I always feel bad shitting on Taylor because he did so many positive things most people wouldn't have during the recession, but he has been a horrific owner. It's time to move on.