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Tywin Manderly

UK Politics: Unboldy Go There Where No Country Has Gone Before

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45 minutes ago, Tywin Manderly said:

What would it take for the UK to rejoin the EU? 

Probably a disastrous economic crash

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5 minutes ago, Maltaran said:

Probably a disastrous economic crash



Yeah, leaving the EU will inevitabely eventually lead to rejoining it. 

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4 hours ago, Maltaran said:

Probably a disastrous economic crash

That's what you guys are praying for, right?

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8 hours ago, Tywin Manderly said:

What would it take for the UK to rejoin the EU? 

about 15-20 years - assuming the EU will still have us

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People rarely go back on such decisions.

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19 minutes ago, SeanF said:

People rarely go back on such decisions.

If you can leave for no sound reason, you can rejoin if there is a pressing economic requirement to do so (assuming they will have us). 

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3 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

That's what you guys are praying for, right?

Why would you say that? We think its inevitable, but nobody actively wants to be fucked. 

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31 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Why would you say that? We think its inevitable, but nobody actively wants to be fucked. 

It's the only way they've got left to paint remainers as the bad guys.

It's completely wrong headed, but there you go

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I assume once the ramifications of Brexit get ugly there will be a slow drip to a pro-EU movement.

Of course, having done Brexit in the first place, I can't imagine they'll get concessions like the pound again.

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Once everyone realises the sky hasn’t fallen in I doubt there will be much chatter about it.

Also who knows what form the EU will take in the future. Everyone recognises that it needs a big reform, but the general direction of travel is only going to be closer integration. I would consider rejoining a reformed, looser version of the EU, but certainly can’t see that happening.

The Euro is going to be a massive issue for them for the next few years and they will need to make changes to make that work. Another crash could kill it off and that would really put the cat amongst the pigeons.

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1 hour ago, BigFatCoward said:

If you can leave for no sound reason, you can rejoin if there is a pressing economic requirement to do so (assuming they will have us). 

Inertia is a very powerful force.  With hindsight, one can see that eurosceptics got quite lucky.  The big step changes in making leave possible were firstly, the ERM fiasco.  That killed off any realistic prospect that we would join the single currency.  And, secondly, the financial crash of 2008-09, which discredited the status quo.  Had we joined the Euro, Brexit would have been effectively impossible, and people will usually tolerate the status quo, even if they don't like it much.

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32 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Inertia is a very powerful force.  With hindsight, one can see that eurosceptics got quite lucky.  The big step changes in making leave possible were firstly, the ERM fiasco.  That killed off any realistic prospect that we would join the single currency.  And, secondly, the financial crash of 2008-09, which discredited the status quo.  Had we joined the Euro, Brexit would have been effectively impossible, and people will usually tolerate the status quo, even if they don't like it much.

Had Britain joined the Euro, 2008-2009 would have been far worse, potentially leading to a forced Brexit a decade earlier, and Tony Blair being lynched.

This Brexit was the product of David Cameron making a promise he never thought he'd need to keep.

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10 hours ago, Tywin Manderly said:

What would it take for the UK to rejoin the EU? 

A government willing to offer a referendum on it. Now that we’ve decided referendums is how this is done, that’s the only way back in. So I’d say, minimum 30-40 years but probably never? I can’t see a government even 50 years from now looking at the last 3 years and saying “yea, let’s go for a bit of that again”.

Maaaaybe if things got so blatantly worse that it became a viable pledge in a manifesto for one of the parties and they subsequently won, but I can’t see it. The actual truth of whether we’re better or worse off will get buried under a sea of bullshit from here on out, so it’ll never be clear to the public how things have turned out, particularly with something like this where the truth would be quite complex even without the bullshit.

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11 hours ago, Tywin Manderly said:

What would it take for the UK to rejoin the EU? 

20 years?

2 hours ago, SeanF said:

People rarely go back on such decisions.

Hence the 20 years. It is only viable when the generations that didn't want to leave are a majority.

Edited by Seli

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All the lies about leavers

Quote

Our leaving is the result of a collective decision, taken by a majority of its people, about the destiny of their national community — or what most consider to be their home. And this decision, contrary to the liberal view of citizens as autonomous individuals who are mainly driven by self-interest, was never rooted in transactional considerations about money.

Nor was it focused on individuals. Rather, it was anchored in a collective and sincere concern about the wider group, about the nation, and in profound questions about identity, culture and tradition. Who are we? What kind of nation are we? What holds us together? Where do we want to go, together, in the future?

 

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I like how that article basically admits that Brexit was fundamentally about nationalist identity politics, but tries to paint that as a good thing.

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The UK won't rejoin the EU, but parts of it probably will. 

Brexit is painted (by leavers) as being about British identity and UK independence, but when pressed, they inevitably talk about English identity, insofar as such a thing exists. None of them will talk about the logical disconnect between insisting that they want to defend one close union of unequal partners by leaving another one. The entire discussion has ignored Scottish, Welsh and Irish issues - at least up to the point when it was literally forced to acknowledge the last. And Leavers, when pressed, have largely put leaving above even the existence of the UK as a continued entity.

So what this has really been about, is English nationalism and the belief in English exceptionalism. One need only watch any speech by Johnson to see that made plain. England will try to hang on to the other nations, and probably will hang on to Wales. Northern Ireland is now in a process of reunification with the Republic and will inevitably leave, and become formally part of the EU. Scotland could go either way, depending how things pan out. I hope for rejoining the EU as an independent country, but there's no doubt the UK government (of whatever party) will do whatever it can to prevent that, by fair means or not. That one will be messy.

But will England ever rejoin the EU? Maybe. The old don't live forever, and the young don't believe in English exceptionalism, by and large. 

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