Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[horangi]

17 hours ago, Zorral said:

BUT! no problems here, no matter that what is left of the CDC (trump fired most of the agency two years ago and never replaced them) says the opposeite of what the trumpistas told us today, that the virus is totally contained and there will be no more cases in the USA. Still We Must Take Billions from federal programs such as those that help low income households with winter heating bills to fight the virus!  We are SO frackin' GRrrrrrrr8!  (And we get ALL THE MONEY, especially your money.)

 

Zorral- while I understand the frustration, there is certainly a lot to be critical about across the board.  You'd be more effective in your argument if you fact checked your statements before posting them.  The president did not fire most of the CDC, and despite the rhetoric, the enacted budget has been stable over time with the final spent budgets fluctuating a bit from year to year.  Remember its congress that sets both the FTE (Full Time Employee) count and budget.  For example here are the final CDC budgets and end of year FTE counts for the last few years:

FY2016 Budget $12,171,545,000   FTEs 11,421

FY2017 Budget $12,100,226,000 FTEs 11519

FY2018 Budget $ 12,641,699,000   FTEs 11,336 (looks like about an extra 480 million was dedicated to build a new BSL-4 lab)

FY2019 Budget $ 12,093,936,000 FTEs 10,865

FY2020 Budget $12,787,506,000 FTEs 10865 (enacted not final)

(https://www.cdc.gov/budget/fy2020/congressional-justification.html

Most of the discussions you hear on the news are about political appointee positions not being filled (since they almost all resign at change of administration), but there are only about 4000 of the positions out of a 2.2 million person work force across the entire USG.

[Frey family reunion]

All right serious question here.  I have a cruise scheduled to sail out of Rome and make a number of stops in Italy, Croatia and Greece for the second half of May.  Seriously considering cancelling it, even though I would lose half the money on the cruise and all of my plane fare and hotel stays in Rome.

Not sure if I’m over reacting or not.  Talk me down.

[Sophelia]

30 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Seriously considering cancelling it, even though I would lose half the money on the cruise and all of my plane fare and hotel stays in Rome.

Not sure if I’m over reacting or not.  Talk me down.

Is there a specific date by which you can't cancel to get half the money back?

[Frey family reunion]

11 minutes ago, Sophelia said:

Is there a specific date by which you can't cancel to get half the money back?

March 18

[Sophelia]

Just now, Frey family reunion said:

March 18

Don;t cancel it now then, reappraise on March 17th to make a more informed judgement 

[Ran]

 

Just now, Sophelia said:

Don;t cancel it now then, reappraise on March 17th to make a more informed judgement 

Agreed. 

On top of that, I'd only be concerned about the cruise part -- being on a ship with people packed into close quarters is not an ideal situation when there's something like this going on. But take the half you get back and fund extra hotel days and enjoy Rome and its environs instead, so not all is lost. 

[Sophelia]

The other reason for waiting rather than cancelling yet is that if it things get officially bad in the locations you are scheduled to, you might have your flights/cruise cancelled/altered by the operator and not lose out.

[Gertrude]

9 minutes ago, Muaddibs_Tapeworm said:

Fewer people have died from the Corona virus outside of China than have died choking on their food in the same period of time. You gonna stop eating?

That’s a little disingenuous, no? If the virus can be contained or if there was solid news that it’s on the decline or stabilized, then it doesn’t seem like a risk to alter big plans over. But that’s not the situation and what they are trying to figure out. It’s impossible to predict the future, but if the Olympics are contemplating canceling the event, I think it’s entirely reasonable to contemplate cancelling a vacation. I’d absolutely rethink my behavior if I thought I was at risk of contracting it, or worse, contracting and spreading it from a purely selfish / voluntary action. It would suck personally, no doubt. I’m not saying taking a vacation is selfish, not at all! I think you guys get what I mean though.

[Frey family reunion]

18 minutes ago, Sophelia said:

The other reason for waiting rather than cancelling yet is that if it things get officially bad in the locations you are scheduled to, you might have your flights/cruise cancelled/altered by the operator and not lose out.

That's kind of what I hope happens, but my guess is the cruise line won't cancel it until they absolutely have to, which will probably be after my March 18 deadline. 

I'm just having a hard time getting my head around just how serious this thing is, and if I'm overreacting or not.  I probably wouldn't think about cancelling a cruise in the Caribbean for example, but the recent cases coming out of Italy definitely has me concerned.  All of my stops are in southern Italy but still... 

I'll probably wait until March 16 and hope either that this thing starts to die down or the Cruise line does the right thing and cancel it or let us reschedule.

[Frey family reunion]

32 minutes ago, Ran said:

 

Agreed. 

On top of that, I'd only be concerned about the cruise part -- being on a ship with people packed into close quarters is not an ideal situation when there's something like this going on. But take the half you get back and fund extra hotel days and enjoy Rome and its environs instead, so not all is lost. 

Yea being stuck on a quarantined cruise ship doesn't really sound appealing.  I also don't find the idea of of being on a ship with latex gloves and surgical masks on and being afraid of touching anything or getting too close to anyone very relaxing.

ETA: I've been to Italy before and I had a blast, so that's probably not too bad a back up plan.

[Jeor]

1 minute ago, Frey family reunion said:

I'll probably wait until March 16 and hope either that this thing starts to die down or the Cruise line does the right thing and cancel it or let us reschedule.

Yes, I think the golden rule with cancellations is to wait until the last possible moment when you can get your money back (or some money, anyway). You've still got three weeks until that day and who knows what the situation is going to be like then, and it gives you a chance for the cruise line to cancel and have to refund your whole money anyway.

[RhaenysBee]

Oh there’s a thread for this, thank goodness. 

I don’t want to underrate and marginalize the seriousness of this epidemic, but I’m losing my mind over the hysteria around it. 
Sure, be safe and careful, don’t travel to the epicenters, cancel imminent trips, wash your hands regularly, avoid crowds in confined places, I would do all that, I am doing all that. 
But my lord, hand sanitizers are out of stock in drugstores, non-perishable food aisles are emptier than in the 70s, the soonest grocery delivery appointments start from next Tuesday. All because people are stocking up on canned food, and medicine like there’s a zombie apocalypse coming. 
We don’t even have infected people within the country, for crying out loud. Yet. (Because we will most certainly wait to close down borders until we do - even though we are very much practiced at it.) And even when we do, the city will never be put under lockdown, our economy would crash within days. People will still be obligated to go to work, what kind of Hollywood scenario does the common opinion expect to unfold? 
The lack of rationality is truly truly baffling to me. I know the headlines build on scaremongering and shock value, and I know the media coverage is biased and over dramatic. But have we all forgotten how to think? We have all studied maths and heard the term “probability”, can’t we just look at the numbers and calm down? Practice caution and apply preventative measures while maintaining reasonability and common sense? 
I would certainly not want to be affected by the virus directly or indirectly, that’s only obvious. But the scariest part in all this is the lengths fear and human stupidity can take us. And I don’t even dare to imagine where it would all lead if someone sometime decided to take advantage of that. 
/rant 

why I’m sorry about the outburst. 

[Gertrude]

 

7 minutes ago, Muaddibs_Tapeworm said:

All I can say is I wouldn't cancel a vacation over it, and I really don't think it's as serious as most media outlets would have us believe. 

I get it, but I think a healthy dose of fear is not uncalled for. Not panic, but just getting people to rethink their routine and prepare for worst case scenarios is not a bad thing.

You emphasize the deaths in China, but it has spread, and will continue to be spread by people who have the same attitude you have - not enough risk to alter my behavior. Personally I kind of liken it to anti-vaxxers. My personal beliefs outweigh the health of the herd. I tend to think the opposite.

I don’t mean that people should barricade themselves in their houses and hunker down, but traveling to a known outbreak area, which Italy is, is not unreasonable and is a responsible line of thinking.

[Frey family reunion]

10 minutes ago, RhaenysBee said:

I don’t want to underrate and marginalize the seriousness of this epidemic, but I’m losing my mind over the hysteria around it. 

That’s why I asked the question, because I know I’m fairly susceptible to media fueled hysteria, especially when it involves this type of thing.  I brought the issue of cancelling the cruise up with my wife several weeks ago, and she kind of laughed it off.  She’s not laughing as much anymore. 

[A True Kaniggit]

47 minutes ago, Muaddibs_Tapeworm said:

Fewer people have died from the Corona virus outside of China than have died choking on their food in the same period of time. You gonna stop eating?

Ugh. I don't like comparisons like this.

It's like that silly saying, "more people get hit by lightning than get attacked by sharks".

Yeah, because lighting can hit anywhere, while sharks are in the ocean. Drop 7 billion people in whitetip infested waters and see what happens.

The two things don't connect at all.

[Gertrude]

14 minutes ago, RhaenysBee said:

But my lord, hand sanitizers are out of stock in drugstores, non-perishable food aisles are emptier than in the 70s, the soonest grocery delivery appointments start from next Tuesday. All because people are stocking up on canned food, and medicine like there’s a zombie apocalypse coming. 

The lack of rationality is truly truly baffling to me. I know the headlines build on scaremongering and shock value, and I know the media coverage is biased and over dramatic. But have we all forgotten how to think? 

This happens every time the news predicts a heavier than normal snowfall, it’s not new behavior. I agree with the general thrust of your post - practice caution but don’t go crazy - but that’s kind of not the world we live in and never have. Individual people can be rational and logical, but people en masse usually are not.

And perhaps I’m not watching the right outlets because I’m not seeing The hysteria. I see some reporting, but it seems less urgent than the reporting on SARS if my memory serves. Which it probably isn’t.

[RhaenysBee]

3 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

That’s why I asked the question, because I know I’m fairly susceptible to media fueled hysteria, especially when it involves this type of thing.  I brought the issue of cancelling the cruise up with my wife several weeks ago, and she kind of laughed it off.  She’s not laughing as much anymore. 

I must admit I didn’t read back on the thread before posting, I made up for that now. I agree with the advice you were given, wait till the last day you can cancel and cancel then, if things will not have smoothed out by that time. 
 

2 minutes ago, Gertrude said:

This happens every time the news predicts a heavier than normal snowfall, it’s not new behavior. I agree with the general thrust of your post - practice caution but don’t go crazy - but that’s kind of not the world we live in and never have. Individual people can be rational and logical, but people en masse usually are not.

we don’t get much (or any, really) snow here, so that’s not a pattern I have encountered. Then again, I do see your point and agree. People en masse will always be gullible and irrational. It’s probably the extent and the abruptness that frustrates me. 

[williamjm]

1 minute ago, Gertrude said:

I don’t mean that people should barricade themselves in their houses and hunker down, but traveling to a known outbreak area, which Italy is, is not unreasonable and is a responsible line of thinking.

A couple of my colleagues from the US were in our office today and they had been planning to go on to Bonn tomorrow for a couple of days of meetings, but they decided to cut their trip short and fly back the US early. It did feel to me like a possible over-reaction since Germany isn't one of the big virus hotspots (although there was some mention of a potential case in Cologne on the news today), but I think they might have been more worried about travel restrictions preventing them returning home rather than the actual virus itself. I can understand that being stuck in a hotel for a couple of weeks doesn't sound very appealing.

Of course, it's a bit different cancelling an unexciting and not particularly important business trip at no cost to yourself than it is cancelling a holiday you've paid for and have been looking forward to.

[HexMachina]

2 hours ago, Ran said:

 

Agreed. 

On top of that, I'd only be concerned about the cruise part -- being on a ship with people packed into close quarters is not an ideal situation when there's something like this going on. But take the half you get back and fund extra hotel days and enjoy Rome and its environs instead, so not all is lost. 

Agreed but with the caveat to keep an eye on the situation in Italy re: lockdowns and restrictions

[Fez]

Well, looks like we've now got the first case of unknown transmission here in the US too. So expect more cases in the next few days.

I was one of the folks early on who didn't take this too seriously; and I still think the right move is to not get overly concerned. At the same time though, I do think some amount of caution is warranted. Unless there's a huge number of unreported cases (which is entirely possible, to be fair), it looks like the fatality rate for COVID-19 is about 2%, which is way, way higher than the flu. If this turns into a pandemic, and its looking increasingly likely that it may, a 2% fatality rate worldwide is around 150 million deaths. And even if the fatality rate is quite a bit lower, it'd still be millions dying.

Even if you think the risk of that is still quite low, the scope of that problem is vast enough that a bit of prudence is worth taking. Personally, I would monitor the extent of things if I had travel plans going anywhere near any outbreaks, and consider making changes. I wouldn't start stocking up on non-perishable goods for a possible mandatory home quarantine just yet; but there's a difference between understanding the potential seriousness of the situation and engaging in hysteria or fear-mongering.