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Ser Scot A Ellison

Coronavirus (COVID-19)

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+3,694 lab confirmed cases today, brings China's lab-confirmed case count to 28,018

+73 deaths today brings China's lab-confirmed death count to 563.

Outside of China, we had 19 new cases today, and no new deaths.

Total case count is 28,266; total death count is 565.

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China has ordered Wuhan officials to start rounding up the infected and placing them in quarantine facilities.  The New York Times is calling them "camps", and maybe that's not so inaccurate, since they are hardly likely to be hospitals, in any ordinary sense.  It looks grim for the sick, who I would guess probably have more chance of recovery if left at home.

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8 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

China has ordered Wuhan officials to start rounding up the infected and placing them in quarantine facilities.  The New York Times is calling them "camps", and maybe that's not so inaccurate, since they are hardly likely to be hospitals, in any ordinary sense.  It looks grim for the sick, who I would guess probably have more chance of recovery if left at home.

Home treatment isn't good enough when the disease progresses to a certain stage.  You can't take of yourself at that point, and having friends or family over to take care of you just ends up spreading the disease further.  The camps aren't ideal, but it's better than dying at home and spreading the disease.

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15 hours ago, Mudguard said:

Home treatment isn't good enough when the disease progresses to a certain stage.  You can't take of yourself at that point, and having friends or family over to take care of you just ends up spreading the disease further.  The camps aren't ideal, but it's better than dying at home and spreading the disease.

The only part of this post which is on point are the last 4 words.  Yes, the purpose of these mass facilities, or camps, it to contain the disease.  Not for any other purpose.

Hospital treatment is better than home treatment in many cases.  But it is rare, to the point of inconceivable, that home treatment is not better than being thrown into a concentration camp.  The main reason they are being thrown into such camps is because real hospital facilities are unavailable.  (And also, perhaps, because the authorities want to reopen the city, and want to get the infected out of the way).

People are being thrown into these facilities not because their disease has progressed to the point where they need serious treatment.  Rather, it is because they are infected.   Or because they are suspected of being infected.  Or because they have a temperature.  Or because they have been in close contact with any of the above.

I would guess that the only care they are likely to receive in such facilities will be from the close relatives who are thrown in along with them.

Note that not all that are thrown in will be actually infected.  But they are sure to get infected once they are there.

 

 

Edited by Platypus Rex

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56 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

The only part of this post which is on point are the last 4 words.  Yes, the purpose of these mass facilities, or camps, it to contain the disease.  Not for any other purpose.

Hospital treatment is better than home treatment in many cases.  But it is rare, to the point of inconceivable, that home treatment is not better than being thrown into a concentration camp.  The main reason they are being thrown into such camps is because real hospital facilities are unavailable.  (And also, perhaps, because the authorities want to reopen the city, and want to get the infected out of the way).

People are being thrown into these facilities not because their disease has progressed to the point where they need serious treatment.  Rather, it is because they are infected.   Or because they are suspected of being infected.  Or because they have a temperature.  Or because they have been in close contact with any of the above.

I would guess that the only care they are likely to receive in such facilities will be from the close relatives who are thrown in along with them.

Note that not all that are thrown in will be actually infected.  But they are sure to get infected once they are there.

 

 

Your post is filled with speculation.  Can you provide a citation from a reputable news source that back up all these allegations?

The New York Times published an article that stated (limited clicks):

Quote

A senior Chinese official has ordered the authorities in the city of Wuhan to immediately round up all residents who have been infected with the coronavirus and place them in isolation, quarantine or designated hospitals.

Sun Chunlan, a vice premier tasked with leading the central government’s response to the outbreak that is centered in Wuhan, said city investigators should go to each home to check the temperatures of every resident and interview infected patients’ close contacts.

“Set up a 24-hour duty system. During these wartime conditions, there must be no deserters, or they will be nailed to the pillar of historical shame forever,” Ms. Sun said.

The city’s authorities have raced to meet these instructions by setting up makeshift mass quarantine shelters this week. The shelters are meant for coronavirus patients with milder symptoms, the government has said. But concerns are growing about whether the centers, which will house thousands of people in large spaces, will be able to provide even basic care to patients and protect against the risk of further infection.

According to this article, only people infected with coronavirus are placed into these quarantine camps, which supposedly are for patients with milder symptoms.  Since these camps are so new, it's unclear how well they will be operated.  But some of your claims, like the assertion that the only treatment people will receive is from close relatives that are thrown into camp with them, is ridiculous.  

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2 hours ago, Mudguard said:

Your post is filled with speculation.  Can you provide a citation from a reputable news source that back up all these allegations?

1st bold:   is in parentheses, and prefaced by "perhaps".  After mentioning one motive, I mentioned another possible motive.  It is based on the fact that no city can survive indefinitely while in permanent lockdown.  There must be enormous pressure on the city to reopen.

2nd & 4th bold:  Is based on the obvious fact that the officials being sent around to find the sick will not be armed with non-existent 100% infallible infection insta-detectors.  Test kits are unavailable, and in any event take time.  Those conducting the roundup are armed with thermometers.  And they are conducting interviews focused on close contacts.  I do not know, nor do I claim to know, how exactly they will determine who is and who is not infected, but they certainly will not be using infallible methods.  Every sentence I wrote beginning with the word "Or …" represents a possible criterion that they may or may not use to determine who is "infected".

And if you have been following the plight of the sick being treated at home in Wuhan, by family members, you already know that they have long been told that they cannot get tested because of the lack of available test kits.  It is these people who are about to all get rounded up.

3rd bold:   Is a sentence beginning with the word "I would guess …"  I never presented it as hard fact.  It is based on my awareness of concentrations camps and other mass institutions.  These things never seem to work out, and are always turning into hell-holes, no matter how benevolent the motives for their creation..  It is also based on the fact that health care services, in actual hospitals, are already overwhelmed.

Quote

I can't follow this link, but I have the print version of Amy Qin's February 7 article, entitled (in the print version):  "Beijing Imposes Extreme Measure on Wuhan, Warehousing Patients":

Qin's article does not discuss Beijing's instructions to round up the "infected", but rather their instructions to round up the "sick".  That is the word she repeatedly uses:

"... ordering house-to-house searches, rounding up the sick, and warehousing them in enormous quarantine centers."

"... the sick being herded into makeshift quarantine camps, with minimal medical care …"

Here's one sentence that uses the term "infected", but note the methods used to determine who is "infected":

"... Ms Sun ordered medical workers to mobilize into round-the-clock shifts to visit each home in Wuhan, check the temperature of all residents, and interview close contacts of any infected patients."

Quote

According to this article, only people infected with coronavirus are placed into these quarantine camps, which supposedly are for patients with milder symptoms. 

I found no such claim in the print version of Qin's article.  However, it is clear that people with "mild symptoms" will be among those rounded up, because they cannot be allowed to stay in the community.  The article quotes Wang Chen regarding the purpose of the makeshift facilities:

"If a large number of patients with mild symptoms live at home, or if suspected patients roam around in the community, they will become the main source to spread the virus …"

So there you have it.  The purpose of the facility is to house -- not just patients with mild symptoms --  but also "suspected patients".  Because they cannot be allowed to roam around in the community.  But nothing was said about patients with severe symptoms NOT going there.  Presumably, they cannot be allowed to roam the community either.  And there is no room left at the hospitals.

Quote

Since these camps are so new, it's unclear how well they will be operated. 

Concentration camps tend to get worse over time.  But if you read to the end of the article, you must know that conditions are already being described as horrific.

The article quotes a Wuhan resident with relatives at the center, who posted on Weibo, citing "power failures and problems with heating, saying people had to 'shiver in their sleep'"; and that "'Doctors and nurses were not seen to be taking note of symptoms and distributing medicine,...'".

Did you read that part?

Quote

But some of your claims, like the assertion that the only treatment people will receive is from close relatives that are thrown into camp with them, is ridiculous.  

This statement was preceded by the qualifiers "I would guess" and "likely".

I'm not the only one thinking such ridiculous things.  If you read Qin's NYT article, you may have noticed that Dr. William Schaffner is also very concerned about it.  "'What happens to the people who are sick?', he asked,  'Do they receive care, and at what level?'"   Shortly thereafter, other experts are speculating about the spread of disease under such conditions. 

See also the quote from the Wuhan resident above.  And that's just what it's like now.  What do you think it's going to be like after they FINISH rounding up everyone they want to round up.

No big surprise really.  These mass concentration camps never seem to turn out well … not even when they are not run by communists.

Edited by Platypus Rex

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A few years ago my family contracted a strange illness from insect bites while camping in southern California, I even had a thread about it.  God bless all the coronavirus patients.  

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There's always scumbags that use things like this virus as an opportunity to make money.

This is the N95 mask.

If things get really scary in the country you live in, this is the mask you should wear out in public, it's like 10 times better at filtering airborne elements than a regular surgical mask.

If you notice, Amazon proper is sold out. It's only 3rd party sellers now. That's because speculators are buying them all up to be able to sell at higher prices.

At most you should only pay $3.00 for a single one of these. Before the Coronavirus you could fins them for $1 a piece in places. Now you mostly see them in bulk and when you do the math it's like $5 each for the more reasonable ones.

Anyway, just friendly advice, if you are out and see these in a store for a good price, pick up a couple. If the Coronavirus passes, it's still good to just have around in your disaster preparedness kit because if not this time, then next time may be the really bad outbreak.

 

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According to CNN-

A total of 722 people had died from the virus and 34,546 were infected in mainland China by the end of Friday,

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9 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

2nd & 4th boldIs based on the obvious fact that the officials being sent around to find the sick will not be armed with non-existent 100% infallible infection insta-detectors.  Test kits are unavailable, and in any event take time.  Those conducting the roundup are armed with thermometers.  And they are conducting interviews focused on close contacts.  I do not know, nor do I claim to know, how exactly they will determine who is and who is not infected, but they certainly will not be using infallible methods.  Every sentence I wrote beginning with the word "Or …" represents a possible criterion that they may or may not use to determine who is "infected".

And if you have been following the plight of the sick being treated at home in Wuhan, by family members, you already know that they have long been told that they cannot get tested because of the lack of available test kits.  It is these people who are about to all get rounded up.

 

Since much of your speculation is based on your speculation that China is unable to test for coronavirus, I'm just going to focus on this point.  Currently, it is very simple to test for coronavirus.  The assay is based on decades old technology (qPCR/RT-PCR) that I used in the lab over 20 years ago, and it wasn't even new when I used it.  However, to develop the qPCR assay, you need to know what the target is so that you can synthesize the appropriate primer set (a trivial process once the target has been identified), which has been known for months now.  Sure, at the beginning, there was no easy assay and confirmation of coronavirus detection was difficult, but that is no longer an issue.  The test is not instantaneous; it will take hours to process and test the sample, and it requires a qPCR machine.  The limit for test processing capacity is the number of machines and number of lab technicians.  Recently, a 10,000 sample per day lab was set up in Wuhan to test for coronavirus.  

Quote

The Chinese medical technology firm BGI Group said it has opened a lab in Wuhan, where the outbreak is centered, that can test 10,000 samples a day to diagnose the coronavirus there.

They take a person's temperature as a quick screen to determine whether a sample should be acquired and sent for testing.  You are very mistaken if you really believe taking a person's temperature is the assay they are using to determine coronavirus infection.  If you don't have a temperature and otherwise are not at high risk, there is no reason to test the person using the qPCR assay.  If the person does have a temperature or otherwise is considered high risk, they can acquire a sample and send it to a lab for testing.  Results of the qPCR assay should be available within a day or so.  There is no reason to send tens of thousands of noninfected people into the quarantine camps to be placed in close proximity to the infected when such a simple assay can determine when a person is infected.

In the US, the authorities are closely monitoring hundreds of people who were in close contact with the 12 infected patients in the US, so over 20 close contacts per infected on average.  In Wuhan and the surrounding region, there are over 30,000 confirmed infected.  Even if you just try to throw 3 close contacts per infected into the camps, you need about 100,000 beds.  Obviously, that's infeasible.  

They are identifying thousands of confirmed infected every day right now.  These new quarantine camps will be quickly filled up with confirmed infected.  To do what you are claiming, they need to be building camps for hundreds of thousands of people, not tens of thousands.

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China Struggles to Contain Virus - BBC News

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8Vyy5iAoXM

This piece contains footage, apparently of quarantine squads dragging off Chinese citizens.  The BBC, in their ignorance, calls them "suspected" virus patients.  But we know this is wrong.  We have the direct assurance of none other than @Mudguard himself, that every single one of them has been lab-confirmed.  Thanks @Mudguard

Edited by Platypus Rex

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In other news, Hubei province has released its official update for Saturday, Feb. 8.

There are some citizens of Hubei province who allegedly suspect that that the real figures are vastly higher than the official figures.  But never mind that.  Anyone spreading such rumors is a traitor who deserves to be dragged off  by the authorities.  Not that the too-tolerant authorities would ever do such a thing.  No doubt, if any critics of the authorities get dragged off, it is because their infected status has been lab-confirmed.  Ask @Mudguard

So lets get on to discussing the official figures.  Note that these figures only for Hubei, not for all of China.

Confirmed Cases:  27,100

Suspected Cases:  23,638.  Of these, 12,918 are "centrally isolated" (that is, in some mass quarantine facility).

Close Contacts Traced:  123,827.  Of these, 70,434 are "under medical observation" (whatever that means).

It is not stated whether any of the "confirmed" cases are also "centrally isolated".

As usual, mortality is reported for the "confirmed" cases, but not for the "suspected" cases, nor those "under medical observation".

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-02/09/c_138767497.htm

Sadly, it appears that the officials of Hubei province may now be in deep trouble.  By claiming that 12,918 persons had been thrown into quarantine, without first obtaining a lab-confirmation, they have spread false rumors, causing damage to the great Nation of China,  Obviously, they should have checked with the great @Mudguard before releasing these figures.  

They also should have considered that the total numbers for Suspected Cases and Close Contacts is almost 150,000, which far exceeds the 10,000 per day testing capacity as reported by the great @Mudguard.  It would take at least 15 days to test all such people.  Indeed, it would take longer, as more cases are constantly appearing, and some will have to be given priority.

 

Edited by Platypus Rex

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On 2/7/2020 at 8:56 PM, drawkcabi said:

There's always scumbags that use things like this virus as an opportunity to make money.

This is the N95 mask.

If things get really scary in the country you live in, this is the mask you should wear out in public, it's like 10 times better at filtering airborne elements than a regular surgical mask.

If you notice, Amazon proper is sold out. It's only 3rd party sellers now. That's because speculators are buying them all up to be able to sell at higher prices.

At most you should only pay $3.00 for a single one of these. Before the Coronavirus you could fins them for $1 a piece in places. Now you mostly see them in bulk and when you do the math it's like $5 each for the more reasonable ones.

Anyway, just friendly advice, if you are out and see these in a store for a good price, pick up a couple. If the Coronavirus passes, it's still good to just have around in your disaster preparedness kit because if not this time, then next time may be the really bad outbreak.

 

This is called "the law of supply and demand".  People like you are buying up these masks.  Therefore the price is going up.

In my opinion, ordinary citizens should not be buying up these masks, unless they intend to spend a lot of time risking their lives caring for the infected.  If not, they should leave the masks for the health-care workers who are taking these risks.

There is no point complaining that the people selling these masks are being selfish for charging what others are willing to pay.  The unselfish ones are probably stockpiling them for or donation to the health-care workers in infected areas who are going to need them.

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https://www.scpr.org/programs/bbc-newshour/2020/02/07/77351/

There's a link on the site by which one can hear streaming the entire story -- this is the most informative of anything I've seen or heard about the situation of masks, etc.  In the meantime what I read everywhere and hear is that masks generally are of no use whatsoever.  One needs something of the level of hazmat for that to be the case.

Quote

 

Fri February 07

The Director-General of the World Health Organisation, Tedros Adhanom, says there is a chronic shortage of personal protective equipment. Mike Bowen, the executive vice president of Prestige Ameritech - largest manufacturer of surgical masks and respirators in America, says his warnings about the danger of concentrating global production in China has fallen on deaf ears. Also in the programme: The White House press secretary defends President Trump's tone and language in the wake of being acquitted by the US Senate; and the ten thousandth episode of the world's longest-running television soap opera - Coronation Street - has been broadcast in the UK. (Photo: Workers in a factory of medical masks and jumpsuits in Nantong, Jiangsu province. China is facing a shortage of medical masks and other protective gear as people are called upon to wear masks to contain the novel coronavirus spread. Credit: EPA/Xu Congjun)

 

 

 

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On 2/7/2020 at 6:40 PM, Mudguard said:

Your post is filled with speculation.  Can you provide a citation from a reputable news source that back up all these allegations?

The New York Times published an article that stated (limited clicks):

According to this article, only people infected with coronavirus are placed into these quarantine camps, which supposedly are for patients with milder symptoms.  Since these camps are so new, it's unclear how well they will be operated.  But some of your claims, like the assertion that the only treatment people will receive is from close relatives that are thrown into camp with them, is ridiculous.  

Walter Durranty from the New York Times got a Pulitzer for his reporting about communist regimes.  I believe the NYT to be every bit as credible here.

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7 hours ago, mcbigski said:

Walter Durranty from the New York Times got a Pulitzer for his reporting about communist regimes.  I believe the NYT to be every bit as credible here.

The NYT article may be credible, but Mudguard is not.  The NYT article, which I have read, did not say what Mudguard claims it says.

Since the article itself is not accessible without an account, I will quote THE GUARDIAN's accurate summary:

"Authorities in Wuhan city have started going door to door checking temperatures and rounding up suspected coronavirus patients for forcible quarantine in stadiums and exhibition centers that are serving as warehouses for the sick, the New York Times reported."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/07/wuhan-facing-wartime-conditions-as-china-tries-to-contain-coronavirus

Nowhere did the NYT article claim that only lab-confirmed cases were going into these quarantine centers.  Indeed, there is no clear indication, anywhere in the article, that any lab-confirmed cases are going in the quarantine center.

Hubei province reported yesterday that over 12,000 suspected cases had been "centrally isolated".

Edited by Platypus Rex

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The virus has the potential to globally disrupt manufacturing since things like autos now are reliant on a global supply chain and any one critical part from China that is unavailable can shut down assembly lines in several countries.

The coronavirus crisis could shut auto plants around the world

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/09/business/china-coronavirus-global-auto-industry-impact/index.html

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Did everyone see the huge jump in the total number of cases this evening?  The total went from 45k this morning to 60k this evening.  That’s the biggest jump yet. Anyone know why?

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