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Ser Scot A Ellison

Coronavirus (COVID-19)

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1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Did everyone see the huge jump in the total number of cases this evening?  The total went from 45k this morning to 60k this evening.  That’s the biggest jump yet. Anyone know why?

You taking that from the John Hopkins Dashboard?

It uses more data sources than the WHO Dashboard, which is still showing ~45K confirmed cases. A couple of those data sources are from Chinese sites where "suspected cases" are recorded (~16K). The suspected cases are assessed by experienced clinicians at the coal-face. It seems a large number of these have now been taken as confirmed.  

I've been following Dr. John Campbell's YouTube channel for my evidence based analysis of the situation. The case studies are fascinating, albeit worrying. In his latest video update, look to time stamp 18:16 for the breakdown of the latest figures.  
 

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4 minutes ago, ithanos said:

You taking that from the John Hopkins Dashboard?

It uses more data sources than the WHO Dashboard, which is still showing ~45K confirmed cases. A couple of those data sources are from Chinese sites where "suspected cases" are recorded (~16K). The suspected cases are assessed by experienced clinicians at the coal-face. It seems a large number of these have now been taken as confirmed.  

I've been following Dr. John Campbell's YouTube channel for my evidence based analysis of the situation. The case studies are fascinating, albeit worrying. In his latest video update, look to time stamp 18:16 for the breakdown of the latest figures.  
 

Yes that is from the Johns Hopkins dashboard.

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from the BBC  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51482994

Quote

 

There was also a huge increase in the number of cases, with 14,840 people diagnosed with the virus.

Hubei has started using a broader definition to diagnose people - which accounts for most of the rise in cases.

Until Wednesday's increases, the number of people diagnosed in Hubei - where the outbreak emerged - was stabilising.

But the new cases and deaths in the province have pushed the national death toll above 1,350 - with almost 60,000 cases in total.

The province - which accounts for more than 80% of overall Chinese infections - now includes "clinically diagnosed cases" in the number of confirmed cases.

This means it includes those showing symptoms, and having a CT scan showing the infected lung - rather than relying only on the standard nucleic acid tests.

 

 

 

If you change how you count things, expect the results to change.

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10 minutes ago, Pebble thats Stubby said:

from the BBC  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51482994

 

 

If you change how you count things, expect the results to change.

Which is why I asked.  I had noticed the prior flattening out of the trend line.  This was a big change against the prior trend.

Edited by Ser Scot A Ellison

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2 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Did everyone see the huge jump in the total number of cases this evening?  The total went from 45k this morning to 60k this evening.  That’s the biggest jump yet. Anyone know why?

Hubei's explanations seems to be that it has begun including clinical diagnoses in its reporting.    From the size of the jump, it would seem that total deaths now officially attributed to the disease are about 2.5 times higher than deaths among lab-confirmed cases only

My understanding is that the new deaths reported are only those in the last 24 hours.   No correction has been made for the previous underreporting that I had already indicated must be occurring.

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42 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Which is why I asked.  I had noticed the prior flattening out of the trend line.  This was a big change against the prior trend.

The flattening out was also caused by a change in definition.  They decided to stop reporting lab-confirmed cases as confirmed cases, if the patient had shown no symptoms yet.  So there was a drop.  Now, a few days later, they have taken the logical next step, and decided to include patients that show the right symptoms, even if that patient has never been lab-confirmed.  So now, a huge jump.

Edited by Platypus Rex

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The 218 infected, so far, on the Diamond Princess cruise ship off Japan, is a rather chilling indication of how fast this thing can spread in the right, or wrong, circumstances.

And still no confirmed cases in Africa or South America?  This is not, I think, a situation where no news is good news.  

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7 hours ago, A True Kaniggit said:

Olympics start in July yeah? 

If it’s not contained by then, I wonder if Covid -19 will have an affect. 

Don't worry, it'll clear up once it gets warm in April.  Diseases never thrive in warm places, everyone knows that. 

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9 hours ago, A True Kaniggit said:

Olympics start in July yeah? 

If it’s not contained by then, I wonder if Covid -19 will have an affect. 

No, it will not be contained by then.  Yes, it will have an effect on the Olympics.  I'm not sure how it will effect the Olympics, but the yes/no version of this question is pretty easy, IMHO.

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1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Don't worry, it'll clear up once it gets warm in April.  Diseases never thrive in warm places, everyone knows that. 

Well then, it will surely be thriving somewhere in the world.

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3 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Don't worry, it'll clear up once it gets warm in April.  Diseases never thrive in warm places, everyone knows that. 

You broke my sarcasm meter :angry2:.

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Not to defend the orange moron, but there is apparently some actual reasons to think that the virus will not spread as well in warm weather.  Apparently the kind of virus carrying droplets created when an infected person coughs or sneezes that are an important route for person to person transmission stay suspended in air longer in cold, dry weather.  At least this has been observed with other corona viruses.  This is from NPR .  Additionally, I've heard that the virus enters the body more easily through runny, inflamed nasal passages, which are more common in cold months, though I don't have a link on hand to support this.  As the article I linked to also mentions, we have only been aware of this virus for a couple of months.  We simply don't know if what is known of other corona viruses will prove true of this one. 

Of course, our idiotic leader gets a nuanced briefing that mentions that there is a possibility that warming weather slow down the spread of the virus, and, because lacks any ability to comprehend complexity or even basic scientific concepts, latches on to that as comforting fact, rather than educated speculation.  If this disease becomes epidemic in this country, his stupidity has the potential to make a bad situation much, much worse.

 

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In an interview with someone senior from the CDC, the suggestion was made that this outbreak will go on for more than a year and might becaome a permanent addition to the list of respiratory diseases. And that they simply don't understand it yet, it's too early. And they would like to be on the ground in China, but (unclear why) they have not been allowed. Was that a political decision? "People at higher levels are in the CDC are dealing with that".

Edited by Fragile Bird

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1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

In an interview with someone senior from the CDC, the suggestion was made that this outbreak will go on for more than a year and might becaome a permanent addition to the list of respiratory diseases. And that they simply don't understand it yet, it's too early. And they would like to be on the ground in China, but (unclear why) they have not been allowed. Was that a political decision? "People at higher levels are in the CDC are dealing with that".

You never know.  Years ago I knew a guy who had a teaching job lined up in China. Sold his house and everything. Then about  a month before the move the Chinese government changed its mind with no explanation. Guy was a little peeved. 

Edited by A True Kaniggit

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On 2/13/2020 at 3:19 PM, ithanos said:

You taking that from the John Hopkins Dashboard?

It uses more data sources than the WHO Dashboard, which is still showing ~45K confirmed cases. A couple of those data sources are from Chinese sites where "suspected cases" are recorded (~16K). The suspected cases are assessed by experienced clinicians at the coal-face. It seems a large number of these have now been taken as confirmed.  

I've been following Dr. John Campbell's YouTube channel for my evidence based analysis of the situation. The case studies are fascinating, albeit worrying. In his latest video update, look to time stamp 18:16 for the breakdown of the latest figures.  
 

What's concerning is at 3:10. Recovered, asymptomatic carriers. It seems that if patients are in care they are kept in hospital until they are no longer carriers. But if anyone does not need medical care and becomes symptom free and continues to shed virus for a period of time that's a multiplier effect. The definition for recovered includes no longer shedding virus. At only a bit over 5,000 classed as recovered so far that suggest there are a pretty large number of people who tick the first 2 recovered boxes but haven't yet ticked the 2  x virus free test box.

It's a bit of a worry. If there are people who got infected in January still classed as unrecovered only because they are waiting for 2 clear tests that could have significant implications for the course of the disease globally.

11 hours ago, davos said:

Not to defend the orange moron, but there is apparently some actual reasons to think that the virus will not spread as well in warm weather.  Apparently the kind of virus carrying droplets created when an infected person coughs or sneezes that are an important route for person to person transmission stay suspended in air longer in cold, dry weather.  At least this has been observed with other corona viruses.  This is from NPR .  Additionally, I've heard that the virus enters the body more easily through runny, inflamed nasal passages, which are more common in cold months, though I don't have a link on hand to support this.  As the article I linked to also mentions, we have only been aware of this virus for a couple of months.  We simply don't know if what is known of other corona viruses will prove true of this one. 
 

 

The first one accords with basic physics. cold air is denser than warm. Therefore small particulates (droplets and even airborne virus particles) will experience less air resistance to the pull of gravity and hence will fall out of the air and onto surfaces quicker. Though virus is likely to still be viable on the surfaces on which they land. But it is easier to wash your hands than to not breathe.

As to the second point it's pretty well established that infection that enters through mucous membranes have a much easier time of it when the membrane barrier is damaged by injury or inflammation. In winter that's chapping from cold dry air getting up the nose. But of course in spring and summer lots of people suffer from seasonal allergies which have a similar effect, though that's a smaller proportion of people than those who get damaged mucous membranes from cold weather. Also being cold makes you vulnerable, so if you are regularly cold enough to start shivering in the winter then you are making yourself vulnerable. And people who live in poorly insulated homes and can't afford to keep their heaters running, and probably are not well nourished either, and probably have damp homes with mold growing have a long list of risk factors applicable to them that go away in summer (except for the presence of mold and poor nutrition.

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13 hours ago, davos said:

Not to defend the orange moron, but there is apparently some actual reasons to think that the virus will not spread as well in warm weather.  Apparently the kind of virus carrying droplets created when an infected person coughs or sneezes that are an important route for person to person transmission stay suspended in air longer in cold, dry weather.  At least this has been observed with other corona viruses.  This is from NPR .  Additionally, I've heard that the virus enters the body more easily through runny, inflamed nasal passages, which are more common in cold months, though I don't have a link on hand to support this.  As the article I linked to also mentions, we have only been aware of this virus for a couple of months.  We simply don't know if what is known of other corona viruses will prove true of this one. 

Of course, our idiotic leader gets a nuanced briefing that mentions that there is a possibility that warming weather slow down the spread of the virus, and, because lacks any ability to comprehend complexity or even basic scientific concepts, latches on to that as comforting fact, rather than educated speculation.  If this disease becomes epidemic in this country, his stupidity has the potential to make a bad situation much, much worse.

 

Yeah, I did not even pick up on the "stupid-because-Trump-said-it" knee-jerkism.  I thought everyone was more or less familiar with the concept of flu-season.

I don't think warm weather will stop the disease.  But it could slow it down, and give the northern hemisphere a reprieve while it is exploding in the southern hemisphere.

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44 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

Yeah, I did not even pick up on the "stupid-because-Trump-said-it" knee-jerkism.  I thought everyone was more or less familiar with the concept of flu-season.

I don't think warm weather will stop the disease.  But it could slow it down, and give the northern hemisphere a reprieve while it is exploding in the southern hemisphere.

If Trump had come out and said "as it gets warmer flu season will be over and hopefully we should get this contained", I wouldn't have commented on it.  But what Trump said was much much dumber, and contradicted by the opinion of every health professional across the world.  When the President says something so stupid, he deserves to be called out.  Because the world has two hemispheres, warmer weather only slows, rather than stops the spread of coronavirus and it is looking more and more likely this disease will not be contained at all. 

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9 hours ago, Maithanet said:

If Trump had come out and said "as it gets warmer flu season will be over and hopefully we should get this contained", I wouldn't have commented on it.  But what Trump said was much much dumber, and contradicted by the opinion of every health professional across the world.  When the President says something so stupid, he deserves to be called out. 

Well, I'm not sure what exactly you think he said that was so stupid.  Maybe you saw a remark I missed.  But I'll just give my own take on it based on what I saw, from the 2 sets of remarks I read.

The 3 basic things I got out of it were (1) Xi told me he expected to lick this by April; (2) hopefully, he will; and (3) lots of praise, confidence, and support for Xi.

Obviously I agree with (2).  I too hope this will be beaten by April (though I don't think it will be)  I suppose Trump is telling the truth about (1) as well, since Xi has not contradicted him.  The part that I suspect is pure bullshit is (3).   I very much doubt that Xi deserves any praise or confidence at all.  And the only reason he might deserve support is that a major epidemic is probably not the best time for a commie civil war, or other internal political upheaval.  But that's diplomacy for you.  It means giving all kinds of praise to people who don't really deserve it.

The situation as I understand it is this.  Xi is in political peril, due the coronavirus situation.  Ironically, he has probably made his situation worse by prioritizing politics over human lives.  But that does not mean the leopard has changed his spots.  No doubt he is continuing to prioritize politics over human lives.  And he may well feel that he must indeed get the situation in hand by April, or at least pretend that he will, to buy himself some time.

The CDC and the WHO have been trying to get access to China so they can study the virus situation, offering assistance to Xi in exchange for this access.  AFAIK they have so far gotten minimal cooperation from Xi, who is determined to keep an ultra-tight control over information coming out of China. 

I see Trump's remarks as his way of telling Xi "Look, man, I'm not trying to embarrass you politically.  We really just want to work together with you to fight the virus."  It's a sort of peace offering; telling the bastard what he wants to hear. 

The WHO has also been making some statements that seem more aimed at the buttering of Xi's backside than they are aimed at a strict regard for the truth.  I would guess the motive is the same in both cases:  They want Xi's cooperation in fighting this epidemic.

Quote

Because the world has two hemispheres, warmer weather only slows, rather than stops the spread of coronavirus and it is looking more and more likely this disease will not be contained at all. 

I doubt it will be contained.  I've been saying that, more or less, since before this thread started.

Edited by Platypus Rex

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I doubt it will be contained.  I've been saying that, more or less, since before this thread started.

I agree.  I would go so far to say as to say that containment has failed.  Given that we are being told that this virus has a observed incubation period of up to 2 weeks, I fully expect that sometime next week we will start seeing a lot more cases popping up around the world, with some areas starting to become new outbreaks.  Given the number of cases in the Wuhan area, I really have a hard time imagining that even with the steps that have been taken both by the Chinese and by other governments to prevent spread to their countries, that enough undetected cases didn't slip through the cracks to destroy any hope of keeping it regional.  The question is how much will the warmer weather in the northern hemisphere, as discussed up-thread, impact its spread.   I tend to think that this will not be something that goes away after its initial  outbreak but will be with us as a significant problem for a while.

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