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Ser Scot A Ellison

Coronavirus (COVID-19)

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7 minutes ago, Pebble thats Stubby said:

If i jump from a tall building, am i airborn in Rex's lay sense?  Or am I just falling and soon to be a splat?

You're demonstrating a profound sense of bravery:

 

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27 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

It is totally arbitrary to claim the dictionary definition is "wrong".

Let me make you an offer.  From now on, whenever I use the word "airborne", I will do my very best to say precisely in what sense I am using it.  For instance, if I mean the lay sense, I may say "airborne (in the lay sense)".  If I mean the technical sense, I may say "airborne (in the technical sense)".  You in turn, as long as my meaning is clear, will cease this ridiculous campaign to control other people's language on this issue.  Is that not fair?

If you're going to discuss a novel coronavirus, it's best to stick to appropriate technical terms. Otherwise I have no idea what you're doing here apart from trolling. If you have something new to contribute to this discussion, by all means do so. Otherwise I'd request this line of argument end here and now (cue mods). 

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27 minutes ago, Pebble thats Stubby said:

If i jump from a tall building, am i airborn in Rex's lay sense?  Or am I just falling and soon to be a splat?

I believe the answer is yes and yes.

@Platypus Rex The mantra I am trying to live by is: don't be a dick. I fail frequently, but also try to improve little by little, day by day. I think it's a pretty good mantra and I would recommend it to anyone who wants to improve the quality of their social interactions.

Edited by The Anti-Targ

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20 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

And on a much happier note, Russian television has been broadcasting the news that Covid-19 was actually created in American laboratories and unleashed against the Chinese as part of Trump’s trade war.

They are broadcasting those theories in China as well, I hear.

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Back on topic.

From a recent Chinese paper http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51, it seems my age range has a 1.3% case fatality rate, and age appears to be a very significant factor for fatality, being very low right up until the 49/50 mark, and then increasing substantially from there. 8% case fatality rate at 70. 14% at 80+.

Males 2.8% case fatality, females 1.7% case fatality. Interesting if it's actually a biological thing or lifestyle differences among the sexes in the population studied (being almost entirely Chinese people from Hubei / Wuhan).

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5 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Males 2.8% case fatality, females 1.7% case fatality. Interesting if it's actually a biological thing or lifestyle differences among the sexes in the population studied (being almost entirely Chinese people from Hubei / Wuhan).

An explanation I've seen, and of course it is only a hypothesis at this point, is that in China, relatively more males are smokers, when compared to females.  And of course, this disease targets the respiratory system.

Edited by Platypus Rex

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2 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

An explanation I've seen, and of course it is only a hypothesis at this point, is that in China, relatively fewer males smoke, and relatively few females smoke.

I think you mean relatively more males smoke? That does make a some sense if true. Smoking would be an exacerbating factor in a severe respiratory disease

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1 minute ago, The Anti-Targ said:

 

I think you mean relatively more males smoke? 

Yes.  I tried to edit, but not fast enough.

Edited by Platypus Rex

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4 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Hmmm I don't remember me claiming that everyone on the ship would be infected if it was airborne spread. I am sufficiently expert to know that nothing is 100% when it comes to diseases. In fact the rate of infection on the Diamond Princess is evidence for airborne spread.

I'm not shifting goal posts. The FMD example was to illustrate that airborne as opposed to droplet spread has potential for a much greater transmission range.

I thought I detected the hint of an argument that if the virus it were airborne, it would be more contagious than it has been shown to be.  

If that's not what you were hinting at, then fine.  

The virus is clearly very contagious.  This invites the suspicion that some level of aersol or airborne (narrow sense) transmission may be involved.   That at least is one factor that might help explain it.

The Chinese propaganda line has been that this new virus is like the flu in most respects, and to suggest otherwise is racist, evil, and anti-China.  They are heavily pushing the "only droplet" angle, which, as Dr. Milton noted, would normally be interpreted to mean spread by the larger droplets (which travel only about six feet) and not by aerosols.  But fewer and fewer people believe they are telling us the whole story, especially after the Diamond Princess fiasco.

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22 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

In the case of the Diamond Princess, if the virus was airborne then locking yourself in your cabin would not be toally protective because the AC system could be spreading it everywhere on the ship and evacuation of the ship would be the only option. But in the case of droplet spread, locking yourself in the cabin is an effective protection, so long as you aren't locked in with someone who is shedding the virus.

Adding to what I said before, in response to this:

The strategy employed in the Diamond Princess case was apparently influenced by China's "droplets only" representation of the virus, complete with flu analogies.  Officials figured that precautions suitable against the flu would also prevent transmission of COVID 19.  So they thought they could tell people to stay in their rooms, and quarantine them aboard ship, with a few basic precautions.  This was a disaster, and I believe some officials involved have said, in effect, we won't try THAT again.

Which does not necessarily mean it isn't droplets, or mainly droplets.  But somehow, some way, the disease was more contagious than the Chinese led people to believe.   Which should not be a surprise.  Coverup and damage control, for the sake of Chinese economic interests, has been the policy from the start.

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14 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Can't remember who linked him initially, but here is Dr Campbell explaining as a man of few words why it's stupid to think this virus is a man made bioweapon at about 5 minutes.

For the record, nobody on this thread, and certainly not me, suggested it was a bioweapon, or man made.  I won't repeat the opinion I did express, because Ran, in his wisdom, has forbidden it.

14 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

He is speculating that it could be being spread in the air because of the Diamond Princess situation. As it's a heavy virus it won't spread far in the air, but if the ship's AC system is pushing it around, then limited airborne spread is a possibility. So that's not great.

Welcome to the Rebellion!  Between you, me, and Dr. Campbell, we may eventually be able to get all the YOU'RE NOT ALLOWED TO SAY AIRBORNE agitators to give up.

TIME magazine just ran an article on how the virus is spread, which seems to follow the China line, hook, line and sinker, comparing it to the flu, and implying no difference in it's transmission.  It's starting to look rather irresponsible after the Diamond Princess fiasco.  But China has alot of influence, financial and otherwise, and this is the line they push.

Mr. Campbell also mentions the Westerdam, at the end of the video.  This is another example of irresponsible behavior, in this case by Cambodian leaders, in order to appease China's eagerness to downplay the seriousness of the virus.  People will likely die because of it.  Dr. Campbell calls it a "mess-up", after saying he'd use stronger language if he wasn't on video.

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1 hour ago, Platypus Rex said:

Adding to what I said before, in response to this:

The strategy employed in the Diamond Princess case was apparently influenced by China's "droplets only" representation of the virus, complete with flu analogies.  Officials figured that precautions suitable against the flu would also prevent transmission of COVID 19.  So they thought they could tell people to stay in their rooms, and quarantine them aboard ship, with a few basic precautions.  This was a disaster, and I believe some officials involved have said, in effect, we won't try THAT again.

Which does not necessarily mean it isn't droplets, or mainly droplets.  But somehow, some way, the disease was more contagious than the Chinese led people to believe.   Which should not be a surprise.  Coverup and damage control, for the sake of Chinese economic interests, has been the policy from the start.

You really don't know much about infection control. Droplets can easily move around the entire ship. In a hospital why do you think all staff, service and medical are required to be trained in infection control procedures? People in quarantine need to be fed, and have access to  washrooms. Someone needs to deliver those meals and such. Unless one is well trained in infection control, the staff are bringing those droplets everywhere. Touching your mask, touching a contaminated surface such as a plate or a tray, not knowing how to remove a mask, gown or gloves safely, all spread contamination. Without anything being airborne. 

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28 minutes ago, maarsen said:

You really don't know much about infection control.

I think maybe Sologdin would like to give you a lesson in civility.  Unless he has a double standard.

Quote

Droplets can easily move around the entire ship. In a hospital why do you think all staff, service and medical are required to be trained in infection control procedures? People in quarantine need to be fed, and have access to  washrooms. Someone needs to deliver those meals and such. Unless one is well trained in infection control, the staff are bringing those droplets everywhere. Touching your mask, touching a contaminated surface such as a plate or a tray, not knowing how to remove a mask, gown or gloves safely, all spread contamination. Without anything being airborne. 

Thank you for the lecture.  I agree that droplets could account for the Diamond Princess situation.  In fact, I already said as much.  Maybe you missed that part.

Edited by Platypus Rex

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8 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

They are broadcasting those theories in China as well, I hear.

I live in China. My wife, who is Chinese, states that the Trump trade war speculation is nothing more than a conspiracy theory here as well. It is not being broadcast as news.

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2 hours ago, Teng Ai Hui said:

I live in China. My wife, who is Chinese, states that the Trump trade war speculation is nothing more than a conspiracy theory here as well. It is not being broadcast as news.

I think maybe what I heard is that they were being spread on Chinese social media and not being censored by the authorities (who DO censor OTHER theories).  

The official line is that it originated in the Seafood Market.

When the LANCET published an article casting doubt on the Seafood Market theory (without presenting an alternate theory), China organized a petition of protest to the Lancet.

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you might link the lancet bit referenced. what i found goes the other direction.
 

maybe Sologdin would like to give you a lesson in civility.  Unless he has a double standard.

 this snark replicates, rather than cures, the defect that i had noted previously. 

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On 2/20/2020 at 1:20 PM, sologdin said:

you might link the lancet bit referenced.

This is the part of the article that raised eyebrows:

https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/cms/attachment/546071dc-7624-4b68-b52f-99c39a531962/gr1.jpg

It is from:

Huang, et al., "Clinical Features of Patients with Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China", THE LANCET (January 24, 2020).

If you don't see what it is about this chart that raised doubts and eyebrows, that's fine.  The issue is not that important to me.  I'm just responding to your request.

 

Quote

what i found goes the other direction.

If I'm not mistaken, that looks like the China-organized letter to the LANCET.

Edited by Platypus Rex

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On Feb 11, Dr. Tedros, the Director-General of W.H.O., describes the new coronavirus as "airborne".  See 38:30 mark of the following video:

 

 

 

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