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Ser Scot A Ellison

Coronavirus (COVID-19)

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After reading up on what happened on that cruise ship, and the CDC officials getting overruled, and pretty much everything else, I've realized that I have enormous respect for Max Brooks. Almost everything that's happened so far is a 1-for-1 recreation of the opening chapters of World War Z; except that its a respiratory illness instead of zombies.

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2 hours ago, Fez said:

After reading up on what happened on that cruise ship, and the CDC officials getting overruled, and pretty much everything else, I've realized that I have enormous respect for Max Brooks. Almost everything that's happened so far is a 1-for-1 recreation of the opening chapters of World War Z; except that its a respiratory illness instead of zombies.

Well the first case just hit Israel, should we assume that an alliance with the Palestinians is just around the corner?  

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4 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Well the first case just hit Israel, should we assume that an alliance with the Palestinians is just around the corner?  

The most unrealistic part of the book, even moreso than there being a zombie plague. Think Brooks' was letting his biases get the better of him there.

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On 2/19/2020 at 7:05 PM, Pebble thats Stubby said:

If i jump from a tall building, am i airborn in Rex's lay sense?  Or am I just falling and soon to be a splat?

Call me Platypus.  The lay definition I supplied was "carried by the air".  So I'll leave you to answer your own question.

On 2/19/2020 at 7:32 PM, The Anti-Targ said:

I believe the answer is yes and yes.

Is that what you think?  All this talk about vertical falls and going "splat" suggests to me that you (and others) are confusing the word "droplets" with the word "drops".

Someone above claimed that droplets are called droplets because they drop.  This, of course, is not true.  Droplets are called droplets because they are tiny (in this context, VERY tiny) particles of water, Whether they drop or not depends on circumstances.  The larger respiratory droplets do tend to drop, but they not "go splat".  Rather they will float slowly to ground and settle there, provided that the surrounding air is still enough to permit that.  Otherwise, they will move around, carried by the air.

Anyhow, here is an article for you that discusses the matter:

Fernstrom & Goldblatt, "Aerobiology and Its Role in the Transmission of Infections Diseases", Journal of Pathogens (January 13, 2013).

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3556854/

Here's a choice quote:

"One of the challenges facing practitioners, particularly in an enclosed building, is that even large-sized droplets can remain suspended in air for long periods [17]. The reason is that droplets settle out of air onto a surface at a velocity dictated by their mass [17]. If the upward velocity of the air in which they circulate exceeds this velocity, they remain airborne. Hence, droplet aerosols up to 100 μm diameter have been shown to remain suspended in air for prolonged periods when the velocity of air moving throughout a room exceeds the terminal settling velocity of the particle [17]."

Note the researchers' use of the word "airborne".   This is the lay meaning of airborne "carried by the air".  It cannot be the technical meaning of "airborne", because that applies only to the smaller droplets and/or aerosols.

And it is not as though the researchers are unaware of the technical meaning.  In fact, they supplied it earlier in the article, when they defined "droplet" and "airborne" transmission.  When they supplied these terms, they used scare quotes, a common way of signaling that a common word is being used in accordance with a special and uncommon meaning.  They then add the following specifics:

"The World Health Organization uses a particle diameter of 5 μm to delineate between airborne (≤5 μm) and droplet (>5 μm) transmission [17, 24, 25]."

Yet the droplet they just described as "airborne", in the other quote, is 20 times larger in diameter, and 8000 times more massive.  I guess they are not slaves to technical definitions, and feel free to revert to standard usage, as long as their meaning is clear.  Well, I have the same right.

Edited by Platypus Rex

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This is exploding in South Korea.   Looks like we have another major outbreak on our hands.  Certain other countries cannot be too far behind.

Is it also exploding in North Korea?  Officially no, but South Korean media is reporting that anonymous sources say there have been coronavirus fatalities in the North.

Edited by Platypus Rex

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On 2/19/2020 at 7:59 PM, The Anti-Targ said:

I think you mean relatively more males smoke? That does make a some sense if true. Smoking would be an exacerbating factor in a severe respiratory disease

Another explanation I've seen, in todays New York Times, is that women simply have better immune systems for dealing with this type of problem.  However, they pay a price for it in greater vulnerability to autoimmune diseases.

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Other South Korean reports are saying bodies are being burned in North Korea.

Anyway this droplet vs airborne thing can be well put to bed now, because official sources (incl the Chinese I think) have confirmed airborne spread. So if you are in a contiguous airspace as someone(s) who is(are) infectious then you have a high chance of being exposed. It's not guaranteed you will become infected because there's only a % chance you will be in contact with the virus, and you also need to pick up an invective dose. Don't know what those numbers are at the moment though. Very hard to work out infective dose without experimental exposure, and I don;t think any ethics board anywhere in the world would approve such an experiment.

Another bit of info from Dr Campbell's youtube is that apparently a person is most contagious at 3-5 days post infection, which is before most people are symptomatic or any more symptomatic than feeling a bit off colour. So that makes 14-day quarantine in an atmospherically isolated accomodation very important. It also means people with suspected exposure who are not sympromatic, if they are being evacuated to their home country / town should be going on charter transport with no unexposed members of the public and all crew wearing proper protective gear. And each person probably also wearing a proper face mask until they get into isolation.

China is somewhat able to control spread because the people are used to having restricted freedom. I wonder how things will go down when the disease starts spreading in freedom-loving countries. Most people will be sensible and isolate themselves, but will everyone?

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If it turns in to a pandemic, how quickly will it develop? I see its in Iran as well. And what is the result from that? Guess countries have to make sure that the society stays functioning:(

Another question: I have an option on a vacation in egypt for 6 days (in a ressort) at the end of march. When i get back i start a new job.  Would be kind of crappy to miss your first days because of quarantaine.... 

 

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I'm curious and concerned if it has started to spread in North Korea. I would have thought that it would have been one of the countries least likely to be affected given its rather closed off status and its dictatorship allowing tighter control over the population. Are these cases confirmed yet does anyone know? I know confirming this kind of thing for NK is going to be difficult. I've had a quick look and articles are scarce on anything really

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2 minutes ago, HelenaExMachina said:

one of the countries least likely to be affected given its rather closed off status and its dictatorship allowing tighter control over the population.

There is very regular commerce between China and North Korea, both legal and illegal. I'm not terribly surprised.

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16 hours ago, Isabel said:

If it turns in to a pandemic, how quickly will it develop? I see its in Iran as well. And what is the result from that? Guess countries have to make sure that the society stays functioning:(

Another question: I have an option on a vacation in egypt for 6 days (in a ressort) at the end of march. When i get back i start a new job.  Would be kind of crappy to miss your first days because of quarantaine.... 

Let's put it this way:  43 days ago, the first death occurred.  At the time, this virus was newly discovered, and, as far as anyone knew, largely confined to Wuhan, China.

Now, there have been 2500 deaths, and there are now uncontrolled outbreaks in South Korea, Iran, Italy, and maybe Japan as well.

Looking ahead to the end of March, plus 6 days after that, is looking 43 days into the future, give or take

No-one at this point can tell you if you should go to Egypt or not.  But nobody knows what the situation will look like then.  You might not even have a choice. 

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7 hours ago, HelenaExMachina said:

I'm curious and concerned if it has started to spread in North Korea. I would have thought that it would have been one of the countries least likely to be affected given its rather closed off status and its dictatorship allowing tighter control over the population. Are these cases confirmed yet does anyone know? I know confirming this kind of thing for NK is going to be difficult. I've had a quick look and articles are scarce on anything really

Here's the most detailed article I have been able to find so far.  

https://www.thedailybeast.com/north-koreas-secret-coronavirus-crisis-is-crazy-scary?ref=scroll

Bottom line is that we don't really know; because they don't want us to know.  But it would be incredible if the virus had not entered the country.  Their isolation from most of the world only emphasizes the extent that they are dependent on trade and interaction with China.

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One other point that it worth noting.  Someone please check my math but I’m showing the death rate up to 3%.  Is that something to worry about?

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2 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

One other point that it worth noting.  Someone please check my math but I’m showing the death rate up to 3%.  Is that something to worry about?

Its not good, of course.  But it's not unexpected either.  It is merely what I tried to explain on January 29 in the International Thread.   

Then, the case fatality rate was 2.2%, but only 4% of the cases were closed cases (dead or recovered).  The case fatality rate was so low because the majority of the patients who were going to die had not had a chance to die yet.

Now, nearly a third of the cases are closed cases (dead or recovered).  Therefore a greater proportion of the patients who were going to die,  have actually died.  So the CFR has risen to 3.1%

It was always evident that the CFR was going to end up being higher than 2.2%.  And its not going to stop at 3.1% either.

Currently, of the completed cases, 10% have died.  But this too is distorted, this time in favor of higher mortality.  It takes a shorter time for a person to die of the disease than it takes for him to get over the hump and get better.  So the recovered cases are lagging behind the deaths.  As time goes on, the CFR of "completed cases" will continue to go down, as it has been doing.

The "true" CFR will end up being lower than 10%, but higher than 3.1%.

Edited by Platypus Rex

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1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

What about the cases that passed undetected because symptoms were too mild to the person to worry about? 

As with the flu, or SARS or any other illness, such persons will (usually) not be counted as "cases" and therefore will not be part of any "case fatality rate".  They may (however) spread the disease undetected, which is bad news, not good news.

The case fatality rate on the Diamond Princess will probably end up being lower than the CFR as a whole, precisely because of how aggressive authorities have been in testing everyone on board.  The case rate on the Diamond Princess will contain a greater proportion of mild or asymptomatic cases that would not normally be counted as "cases".

In Iran, the case fatality rate is currently high - nearly one in 5.  This is presumably because Iran has not been as aggressive in tracking down cases as have been the health authorities in more-developed nations.  It seems they did not detect ANY cases until they began to see an epidemic of people dying of pneumonia.  And of course, this is the tip of a vast iceberg of infected people with milder symptoms.  This is more typical of what will happen when the disease hits the Third World.

China has already stopped counting asymptomatic cases as "cases".  Once containment has failed, there is no longer much point.  And within China, at least, it seems that containment has failed.

But it is a consoling thought, I suppose, that if you personally are exposed to the disease, as I guess we all eventually will be, your chances of survival are probably pretty good.  The disease is spreading rapidly and silently through undetected infections and exposures, but immunity and resistance to the disease are spreading rapidly and silently as well by the same means.

The CFR tends to reflect your chances of survival after diagnosis.  Until then, hopefully, what you don't know maybe will not hurt you too badly.

Edited by Platypus Rex

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I understood from news reports that the outbreak in South Korea is almost all among members of a religious cult. The members live together in a community, worship together, work together and eat together, which is why so many got infected so quickly. South Korean authorities apparently moved quickly to quarantined the whole pack of them.

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13 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

As with the flu, or SARS or any other illness, such persons will (usually) not be counted as "cases" and therefore will not be part of any "case fatality rate".  They may (however) spread the disease undetected, which is bad news, not good news.

Sure, but my point is going whether should we allow the panic to spread. For that we need accurate information about expected fatality rate, symptoms, complications, prevention, most vulnerable populations, etc. Let's say if a colleague got the virus, what should I expect (a young healthy male) as the most probable outcome. 

I'm just coming out from a very bad flu. Is this going to be worse?

 

13 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

China has already stopped counting asymptomatic cases as "cases".  Once containment has failed, there is no longer much point.  And within China, at least, it seems that containment has failed.

This touches another point. I guess with the outbreaks in S. Korea, Iran and Italy we can kiss goodbye to containment. This thing is going to spread no matter what. The question, what will the response of governments to this. Currently, I'm more worried about getting myself in a prolonged lock-down situation than from getting the virus.

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30 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Sure, but my point is going whether should we allow the panic to spread. For that we need accurate information about expected fatality rate, symptoms, complications, prevention, most vulnerable populations, etc. Let's say if a colleague got the virus, what should I expect (a young healthy male) as the most probable outcome. 

I'm just coming out from a very bad flu. Is this going to be worse?

 

This touches another point. I guess with the outbreaks in S. Korea, Iran and Italy we can kiss goodbye to containment. This thing is going to spread no matter what. The question, what will the response of governments to this. Currently, I'm more worried about getting myself in a prolonged lock-down situation than from getting the virus.

You said you've just recovered from a very bad flu.  

Real Flu is nasty.  normally takes about 2 weeks and for most of that you are in bed feeling rather pathetic,  mussels aching, feeling cold, shivering while running a fever.  often with often with a cough headache, sometimes with stuffed/runny nose sometimes puking.   With the Flu you can't really function, most colds people can function for most if not all the illness.

Flu is so much worse than a cold.

A Bad Flu you will normally be end up in hospital.  if you did not end up in hospital or nearly ended up there, I don't think you had a really bad flu. (not the way I define it)

 

With the COVID-19     some people have no symptoms and are just infectious.   In most young (not child) healthy people its relatively mild nose/throat cough and fever.  in more sever cases you can get breathing problems and develop Pneumonia.

from what I've read  being a Adult under 40 with no conditions then you will most likely be ok and not too badly effected probably not any worse than your recent Flu you had, possibly milder.  after 40 the curve starts to increase and typical symptoms are worse.

If you are an Asthmatic, Diabetic pensioner with hypertension  you're mostly screwed.

 

 

That being said,  anybody can be unlucky and die from it.  just like the flu.  but young healthy Adult and the odd should be in your favour.

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