Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Impmk2]

4 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

What I mean is that biolabs are places where viruses are studied, using animal specimens.  It is where such viruses are cultivated.  It is where such viruses can mutate.  One of the things that is studied is the ability of the virus to hop species.  And I think it is not unheard of for a sufficiently air-borne virus to hop species without any staff planning, and potentially infect cages and animals that were thought to be sufficiently segregated.  And a virus that has already hopped one species might learn to hop another, without too much additional adaptation or mutation.

As to how the virus might have escaped from the lab and/or came to infect its first human … well, shit happens. 

I hope I'm not supposed to take on faith that such facilities, run by communist bureaucrats, are places where nothing could possibly go wrong.  We've seen our answer to that in China's initial (and ongoing) response to the epidemic.  China is a place where problems are pushed under the rug, not solved and fixed.

I've worked in infectious disease research for the past decade. And no. This just doesn't happen. Not like this.

Animal work is expensive and annoying, quite aside from being very unpleasant to carry out. You avoid it at all costs. You don't go throwing airborne (or any) virus at animals just to see if things can 'hop species'. You heavily segregate and monitor any infected animal. You work to tightly defined hypotheses in an extremely controlled environment.

I'm talking just the stuff where I work - in a PC (physical containment) level 2 facility*. The level 4 containment rules are insane. We're talking shower in / out of work through several airlocks and full body PPE (ie a pressurised suit). The people in those labs do not fuck around because fucking around could potentially kill them. The number of those facilities in any given country is vanishingly small because the cost to operate them is insane.

I don't even want to think about just the admin to get an animal experiment going inside one. No one in their right mind would throw an infectious agent like SARS at any animal unless it was completely isolated. We're talking separate rooms, separate air handling, quite probably seperate entire buildings (hell we do that even at my level). Quite aside from anything else an unplanned infection could completely fuck up a very, very expensive experiment. Everything which comes out is assumed infectious and is first killed (if applicable), disinfected, then put in several layers of containment, then goes through an autoclave, before being incinerated.

Is it impossible for a virus to escape a facility? Sure, nothing is impossible.

Is it far more likely that a virus which has hopped species at least twice before, and is endemic amongst animals in the region has simply mutated and hopped species again? Hell yes.

*we only work on tame stuff like the near pan-resistant klebsiella I'm messing with at the moment.

[Ran]

Conspiracy theories not welcome here, unless they are related to ASoIaF.

[Platypus Rex]

4 minutes ago, Ran said:

Conspiracy theories not welcome here, unless they are related to ASoIaF.

Are you telling me to shut up?  

[Ran]

Just now, Platypus Rex said:

Are you telling me to shut up?  

Yep. 

[sologdin]

but these are anti-communist conspiracy theories, surely there's an exception for unhinged mccarthyist xenophobia?

[Platypus Rex]

47 minutes ago, sologdin said:

but these are anti-communist conspiracy theories, surely there's an exception for unhinged mccarthyist xenophobia?

Touchee.  Brave of you to join the debate, now that no-one can talk back.

[sologdin]

anyone can talk about anything; it has nothing to do with any characteristic of mine personally, which would be an irrational departure from the thesis currently being considered (of the argumentum ad hominem variety). 

i think that it at least as equally plausible as your thesis that trump, because he opined that the coronavirus will go away in the spring, already has the cure, which means that he released it in order to pressure china in his feckless trade war.

[Platypus Rex]

2 minutes ago, sologdin said:

anyone can talk about anything; 

I'm pretty sure Ran just told me otherwise.

2 minutes ago, sologdin said:

i think that it at least as equally plausible as your thesis that trump, because he opined that the coronavirus will go away in the spring, already has the cure, which means that he released it in order to pressure china in his feckless trade war.

Is that my thesis?  I don't recognize it at all.

[sologdin]

that didn't really look like moderation. it was more like conspiracism is unworthy of our attention.  

your thesis is that the coronavirus escaped a lab run by incompetent or malevolent communists.  this is not plausible, as explained numerous times, unless we're living that stephen king novel. my proposed conspiracism is evidenced by a solitary statement from trump--which is more evidence than the chinese biolab thesis possesses.  the trump-virus thesis has the virtue, further, of not being lodged against an official enemy--since, apparently, the utterance is to be evaluated on the basis of the bravery or lack thereof of  the utterer. i am now waiting for trump's SS thugs to beat down my door for outing his nefarious scheme.

[Platypus Rex]

18 minutes ago, sologdin said:

that didn't really look like moderation. it was more like conspiracism is unworthy of our attention.  

It was moderation.    I know more about it than you do.

Quote

your thesis is that the coronavirus escaped a lab run by incompetent or malevolent communists. 

My thesis is that I don't know how the coronavirus originated.   There are no hard facts.  Only theories.

Feel free to argue that one particular possible origin is completely implausible.  It has already been made 100% clear to me that I may not argue back

[Aemon Stark]

Please stop using the term “airborne” in relation to COVID-19. That is a very specific type of infection transmission limited to things like active pulmonary TB, measles, and chicken pox. 

[Aemon Stark]

31 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

It was moderation.    I know more about it than you do.

My thesis is that I don't know how the coronavirus originated.   There are no hard facts.  Only theories.

Feel free to argue that one particular possible origin is completely implausible.  It has already been made 100% clear to me that I may not argue back

I don’t think you are able to distinguish between theories and (conspiratorial) speculation. 

[Platypus Rex]

1 hour ago, Aemon Stark said:

Please stop using the term “airborne” in relation to COVID-19. That is a very specific type of infection transmission limited to things like active pulmonary TB, measles, and chicken pox. 

The common wisdom regarding flu-like illnesses is that they are transmitted primarily by airborne droplets, which, because they are heavy, do not typically travel far.  In addition, there is some evidence (and I am still speaking of the regular flu) that airborne transmission by way of lighter particles may also occur in some cases.

As for the new flu, I'm not sure anyone is entirely sure the extent to which "true" airborne transmission is possible or impossible.  But the common wisdom, that airborne droplets are the main mode of transmission, is being applied.

But whatever you call it, the fact remains that there are 450+ cases on the Diamond Princess.

[Larry of the Lawn]

15 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

The common wisdom regarding flu-like illnesses is that they are transmitted primarily by airborne droplets, which, because they are heavy, do not typically travel far.  In addition, there is some evidence (and I am still speaking of the regular flu) that airborne transmission by way of lighter particles may also occur in some cases.

As for the new flu, I'm not sure anyone is entirely sure the extent to which "true" airborne transmission is possible or impossible.  But the common wisdom, that airborne droplets are the main mode of transmission, is being applied.

But whatever you call it, the fact remains that there are 450+ cases on the Diamond Princess.

Damn, too bad that out of all the people who post on this forum, there isn't a doctor who could weigh in on this 

[Aemon Stark]

42 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

The common wisdom regarding flu-like illnesses is that they are transmitted primarily by airborne droplets, which, because they are heavy, do not typically travel far.  In addition, there is some evidence (and I am still speaking of the regular flu) that airborne transmission by way of lighter particles may also occur in some cases.

As for the new flu, I'm not sure anyone is entirely sure the extent to which "true" airborne transmission is possible or impossible.  But the common wisdom, that airborne droplets are the main mode of transmission, is being applied.

But whatever you call it, the fact remains that there are 450+ cases on the Diamond Princess.

Influenza is spread via droplets, which are "airborne" only insofar as they are launched into the air by coughing or sneezing on someone in the immediate vicinity. It is NOT spread via airborne transmission, which is why we NEVER isolated people with influenza in negative pressure rooms, unlike TB, measles, varicella, etc. 

25 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Damn, too bad that out of all the people who post on this forum, there isn't a doctor who could weigh in on this 

[ithanos]

We're lucky that SARS-CoV (2003) and MERS-CoV (2012) are largely contained, but the likelyhood that Covid-2019 will become endemic within China, and possibly within several other countries, is increasing every day. Nature wins this round. The effort in China, especially by their dedicated medical professionals who are taking a heavy toll within their ranks, is only buying the rest of the world time. Time to prepare healthcare systems, time to wait for an effective vaccine to be developed.

Life within China will go on and people will return to their working lives, eventually. I work with several manufacturing partners in southern China (though none in Hubei). These past weeks I have kept contact with office and engineering staff who have been working remotely from their homes. The factories however, are only just ramping back up for production starting from this week. That's a 2 week delay from the usual return after Chinese New Year. The economic impact of such delays is explored here.

Those returning to work from Hubei province (if they've been able to travel) have been told to keep isolated for a further 2 weeks. How factories will manage this I don't know. The mood I sense from my contacts is cautious weary. Note: most mid to large sized factories in China host their workforce in apartment dormitories often ajoining the main factory complex. Complexes I've dealt with over the years have supported on-site workforces ranging in the hundreds up to 20,000. 

[Platypus Rex]

3 hours ago, Aemon Stark said:

Influenza is spread via droplets, which are "airborne" only insofar as they are launched into the air by coughing or sneezing on someone in the immediate vicinity.

Airborne means "carried by the air".  Airborne droplets are not the most dangerous way to be airborne.  But they are airborne, in the normal sense of the word.   Ordinary words have ordinary meanings, and I, being a layman, reserve the right to use words according to their ordinary meaning.  Ordinary flu is (primarily) spread by airborne droplets.  Secondarily, it is spread by infected surfaces.  But in addition, there is some evidence that it, or some strains of it, can be spread in other airborne ways:

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/influenza-might-spread-air-study-finds-n839166

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/320690

Quote

It is NOT spread via airborne transmission, which is why we NEVER isolated people with influenza in negative pressure rooms, unlike TB, measles, varicella, etc. 

I expressed no opinions on appropriate precautions.  That depends on a number of factors.  Obviously, not all airborne transmission risks are created equal.

And of course the New Wuhan Flu, however similar it may be to ordinary flu in some says, may differ in a variety of ways which are yet to be determined.

[Platypus Rex]

20 minutes ago, ithanos said:

The effort in China, especially by their dedicated medical professionals who are taking a heavy toll within their ranks, is only buying the rest of the world time. 

I feel bad for these people.  Some are getting sick and others, I hear, are having nervous breakdowns.  I hope they get well rewarded.

[maarsen]

6 minutes ago, Platypus Rex said:

Airborne means "carried by the air".  Airborne droplets are not the most dangerous way to be airborne.  But they are airborne, in the normal sense of the word.   Ordinary words have ordinary meanings, and I, being a layman, reserve the right to use words according to their ordinary meaning.  Ordinary flu is (primarily) spread by airborne droplets.  Secondarily, it is spread by infected surfaces.  But in addition, there is some evidence that it, or some strains of it, can be spread in other airborne ways:

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/influenza-might-spread-air-study-finds-n839166

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/320690

I expressed no opinions on appropriate precautions.  That depends on a number of factors.  Obviously, not all airborne transmission risks are created equal.

And of course the New Wuhan Flu, however similar it may be to ordinary flu in some says, may differ in a variety of ways which are yet to be determined.

Airborne, droplets or contact are the 3 ways in which pathogens are spread. Each has a different level of personal protective equipment required, as any hodpital worker can tell you. Your definition of what airborne means is useless and wrong. You just keep digging yourself deeper and deeper into nonsense.

[Platypus Rex]

9 hours ago, maarsen said:

Airborne, droplets or contact are the 3 ways in which pathogens are spread. Each has a different level of personal protective equipment required, as any hodpital worker can tell you. Your definition of what airborne means is useless and wrong. You just keep digging yourself deeper and deeper into nonsense.

I was not trying to tell you what type of protective equipment to use.  I was merely using the term "airborne" according to its ordinary English meaning.  And if you search for the phrase "airborne droplets" you will find that I'm not the only one using ordinary words according to ordinary English definitions.  Even persons in specific specialties will often revert to ordinary meanings when talking to laymen.

People in specific fields often develop variant or narrower definitions as "terms of art" of their professions.  These not only differ from the meanings of ordinary English, but also from the meanings found in other professions.   They are not right or wrong, just different.

I'm just using ordinary English.  I was not trying to speak Hospitalese, or medical jargon.  And I'm pretty sure I made my meaning clear.