Rugby: A New Dawn

[ljkeane]

Penalty shootout in the Munster Toulouse quarterfinal!

ETA: And Toulouse win it. I think they probably deserve to go through. Munster played well, and Toulouse overplayed a bit but Munster really got the rub of the green from the officials at the breakdown which was a real boost for them. If you add in having to play away Toulouse have probably earned their place in the next round.

Edited May 7, 2022 by ljkeane

[Iskaral Pust]

I watched Leinster vs Toulouse with a week delay because it clashed with the FA Cup final.  Toulouse must be sick of Irish teams after only beating Ulster by a single point over two legs, and needing extra time and penalties to defeat Munster.  They must have been apprehensive about facing Leinster considering they are much stronger than the other two atm.

Leinster were pretty dominant for most of the game, and Toulouse were fortunate that a stupid error by Gibson-Park gifted them a try early on, because otherwise they were struggling to score at all in the first 60 minutes.  Leinster’s ball handling and offloads have got sharper as the season progressed, which allows them to make more line breaks without relying on power collisions.  I thought Gibson-Park, Sexton, Lowe, Henshaw, Ringrose and VanDerFlier were the standout performers, but the team performance is at a very high level with everyone knowing the system.

But it seems like this competition is playing too late into summer.  The weather was too warm for a match like that, and it noticeably sapped both teams after 60 minutes, leading to more errors and less quality.  That gave Toulouse some opportunity to harness their powerful pack and push a maul to a second try (the only time the generated any real scoring jeopardy all match) but it also meant that their defense that had improved a lot from minutes 40-60 began to open up again from fatigue and got punished.  Holding the final on May 28th in France means even hotter weather.

[ljkeane]

18 hours ago, Iskaral Pust said:

But it seems like this competition is playing too late into summer.  The weather was too warm for a match like that, and it noticeably sapped both teams after 60 minutes, leading to more errors and less quality.  That gave Toulouse some opportunity to harness their powerful pack and push a maul to a second try (the only time the generated any real scoring jeopardy all match) but it also meant that their defense that had improved a lot from minutes 40-60 began to open up again from fatigue and got punished.  Holding the final on May 28th in France means even hotter weather.

Slightly strange tactics from Toulouse in that game I thought. They were pretty clearly trying to keep the game unstructured and deny Leinster clean lineout ball in particular to launch their patterns of play off. I can sort of see why Toulouse would do that in general because they'd expect the talent in their backline to come out on top but they just ended up handing Leinster a lot of good counterattacking ball and tiring out their big pack.

I'm not sure it mattered too much in the end though because Leinster look pretty comfortably the strongest team in Europe this year. There's (unsuprisinngly) a lot of crossover between how Leinster and Ireland play and their looking a very polished unit at the moment with their up tempo rucking style really clicking.

Hopefully it's a good final at the weekend though.

[Iskaral Pust]

This thread keeps disappearing.

Leinster’s great season fell apart at the end (just as Liverpool’s did, unfortunately, a double disappointment for me).  The Heineken cup final result was spoiled for me before I watched it.  Disappointing to lose to a very late try but that’s the risk when defending very deep for the final ten minutes against a more powerful team.  I didn’t watch the game after the result was spoiled but perhaps part of the problem was that Leinster didn’t score any tries despite racking up huge numbers of them all season.  Penalties alone may not have been enough cushion.

And then they lost the URC semi-final too.

They played some very entertaining and attacking rugby all season.  I really enjoyed watching them, even if they didn’t get the trophies they probably deserved.

I wonder though if Sexton will continue beyond the WC.  His skill in passing close to the line will be very difficult to replace.

[ljkeane]

18 minutes ago, Iskaral Pust said:

I wonder though if Sexton will continue beyond the WC.  His skill in passing close to the line will be very difficult to replace.

He's said he's going to retire after the World Cup. I don't know if he just means for Ireland but I'd guess he probably means for Leinster too.

Leinster losing the Champions Cup final was a fairly big surprise but I suppose it shouldn't have been given they lost to La Rochelle the year before. I really did think they'd kicked on to another level this season that La Rochelle wouldn't be able to match though. La Rochelle did a good job off messing up Leinster's rucking game and, yeah, I think Leinster got too sucked into a 'take the points' mindset and let La Rochelle stay in touch then pull past them at the end.

I didn't watch the URC game but to come away from such a good season with no trophies will be massively disappointing for Leinster. All South African final in the end.

A couple of good semifinals in the Premiership this weekend. Northampton in particular really should have won at Welford Road after playing some great rugby but, literally, let too many chances slip through their fingers.

Watching a bit of Super Rugby no surprises to see the Crusaders in the final but it is interesting to see the Blues playing Tuivasa-Sheck at 12. I thought he'd definitely be in the outside backs after converting from league but he could be a real weapon in midfield for the All Blacks.

[Which Tyler]

https://fb.watch/dIDNc_nd5_/

[Which Tyler]

First half agains the BaaBaas must be Farrell's best performance in the 12 shirt for England

[ljkeane]

Extremely ropey performance from England. Yeah, they were missing a few players who'll likely be starters in Australia but shipping 50 points to a Barbarians side down to 14 for the majority of the game doesn't exactly inspire confidence for the forthcoming tour.

A few finals yesterday.

In the Super Rugby final the Crusaders just squeezed the life out of the Blues. It didn't help that the Blues lineout was absolutely abysmal.

The Premiership final was a bit of an arm wrestle but I quite enjoyed it. It's not often you see Sarries losing out in a tight battle but it's real credit to the team Borthwick has put together at Leicester that they were able to pull off the win, just about, even with losing probably their best player in Ford.

I didn't see the URC final but the Stormers are the first South African winners of the URC/Pro whatever/ Celtic or Magners league.

[Iskaral Pust]

On 6/12/2022 at 10:45 AM, ljkeane said:

A couple of good semifinals in the Premiership this weekend. Northampton in particular really should have won at Welford Road after playing some great rugby but, literally, let too many chances slip through their fingers.

I caught up on this match during workouts over this weekend.  Skosan’s three knock-ons in try-scoring opportunities really cost them the match, not to mention some other sloppy turnovers that put them under defensive pressure a few times.  Then the late yellow card (slightly harsh? definitely a penalty but not much force to the head/neck for a card) allowed Leicester to wrap it up.

I don’t know if my Peacock subscription will include the international test matches this summer, so I may be just watching odd games from the Gallagher Premiership and the Champions Cup as I workout for the next few months.

From my limited viewing so far, it seems like the PL teams play with a pretty similar tactical set-up that isn’t very enterprising or skillful.  I’m surprised there isn’t greater variation and experimentation.  But I’ve only watched a dozen or so matches from this season so far.

[ljkeane]

8 hours ago, Iskaral Pust said:

From my limited viewing so far, it seems like the PL teams play with a pretty similar tactical set-up that isn’t very enterprising or skillful.  I’m surprised there isn’t greater variation and experimentation.  But I’ve only watched a dozen or so matches from this season so far.

Not sure I'd agree with that. Northampton and Irish are fairly enterprising, Quins are probably the most attacking side in European rugby. Sarries and Leicester are pretty territory focused but that's not unusual in modern rugby and they aren't bad once they get into the attacking zone, they aren't as one note as Saracens of old. Exeter are a bit weird in how conservative they are once they get into the 22, and I don't think it works with the new rules, but they're alright outside of the 22. Sale are the only really turgid side tactically for me (Bath are just shit, it's nothing to do with tactics).

Anyway, the England squad for Australia. No real surprises. Billy Vunipola back in with Dombrant and Simmonds injured but he's probably earned it anyway. Care gets a recall with Youngs presumably not wanting to tour. Centre and tighthead look like real problem areas.

[ljkeane]

Not the best of starts to the summer for the Northern Hemisphere.

Ireland will be very disappointed with their performance. They were on top for large parts of the game but they've moved along way past being happy with playing well for periods against the All Blacks but ultimately losing by 20 odd points.

Ireland really should have been a couple of scores up after the first 20, then after going behind they tried to force things too much when they really didn't need to which lead to the second New Zealand try. Really sharp play from Barrett and Smith gave New Zealand two more quick tries and the game was pretty much over.

That feels like a real chance missed for Ireland and I think they need to come away with at least one win from this tour.

By comparison England's loss was even worse. Honestly I thought England were going to get pumped going into the game so for them to be so on top for most of the game was a pleasant surprise. After being that on top though this was a game they really should have won by about 20 points. Coming out of that first half at 6-6 was absolutely ridiculous and then, with a man advantage, they let the Wallabies stay in the match by not going for the kill and then fell apart at the key moments.

From the Australian perspective the spirit to stay in the fight and ultimately come away with a win will be encouraging but how often they were losing the collisions in the forwards would be a concern. I wouldn't be surprised to see some changes in the pack for the next game.

[ljkeane]

Heh, another side I thought were going to get battered were Wales and, fair play to them, they've come within a whisker of getting an extremely creditable draw even in the face of a few harsh looking yellow cards. Why are they kicking the ball back to the Springboks two men down with 20 seconds to go though? Bizarre lack of composure.

[ljkeane]

Eddie Jones is such a dick. Pretty much the only bright spot from Saturday for England was Henry Arundell's excellent cameo at the end leading to the wide spread expectation he would definitely be in the starting team. So of course Jones has made three changes to the backline and none of them are to bring in Arundell.

Tupou back fit is probably the headline news for the Wallabies. I'm a little surprised Samu hasn't been promoted off the bench.

I'm also a little surprised Sexton's playing on Saturday for Ireland after failing a HIA last week. I was under the impression that was now an automatic 12 days off? Mack Hansen back in's probably a good call. Earls didn't do anything wrong but Hansen was a real game breaker for Ireland in the Six Nations.

The South Africa - Wales game will be interesting with the Springboks making 14 changes after scraping a win last week. Some of those are normally first choice players in Pollard and Pieter-Steph Du Toit while Esterhuizen and Gelant might be the form players in their positions but, still, it's a big call.

[ljkeane]

Real bounce back day for the Northern Hemisphere sides so far. Ireland picked up their first ever win in New Zealand, England managed to level up the series in Australia and Wales, despite looking second best for about 78 minutes of the game this time, picked up a win in South Africa. All three series level going into the last game, should be good next week.

A bit of a strange game in Dunedin. Ireland were all over the All Blacks until the cards started coming out but then they lost control before they regathered themselves to finally kill off the game. Although, to be fair, they really should have had a penalty try to go with the second yellow. Their quick rucking style really is excellent and it's clear New Zealand really can't live with it when Ireland really hit their stride.

England were better against Australia this morning but there's still a lot of questions for me. There was clearly a bit of an emphasis on coming away with points from the attacking third this week and I suppose it's worked in the end but you can't help but feel they should be scoring more tries. The forwards were very good in the loose but the back line's really not taking advantage.

The South Africa Wales game was extremely scrappy but I doubt Wales will care. To be fair to them they did win it with pretty much the one bit of attacking quality in the game.

ETA: And Scotland made it a Northern Hemisphere clean sweep which must be a first. The scoreline didn't really reflect the balance of the game, which was actually quite close, but Scotland took their chances and the Pumas didn't.

It should be a really good Saturday of rugby next week with all four series set for a final game decider.

Edited July 10, 2022 by ljkeane

[Padraig]

Hopefully Ireland will show more composure if they end up with an extra player again.  Not the first time that has happened.  But still, one game away from history!

[Iskaral Pust]

Ireland peaking too early again.  We stumble at the QF if every world cup.

[Which Tyler]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/rugby-union/2022/07/15/raeburn-shield-ireland-defend-one-mans-labour-love-against-new/

[ithanos]

Unprecedented weekend of rugby, with 4 series on the line. If we look at what it takes to go deep in the RWC, you can afford to drop a game in the pool stages and then string together an unbeaten run of 4-5 games, like South Africa showed in 2019. With that in mind, even though the Southern Hemisphere teams have home advantage, I'd give a lot of weight to the momentum the Northern Hemisphere teams are carrying into these deciders. Still, I can't see any clear favourites in any of these games.

[Which Tyler]

 

[ljkeane]

Speaking of HIAs I did a baseline test with our physio at training this week. I think I failed without actually being concussed, which doesn't feel like a great sign.

Great win for Ireland this morning to become only the third side ever to win a three match series away in New Zealand. I really thought New Zealand would fly out of the blocks this week but Ireland were all over them in the first half. Ireland's phase play really is excellent and the All Blacks certainly look unable to deal with it. I suppose New Zealand might feel a little aggrieved that Porter didn't get a red card after the similar incident last week but, honestly, Ireland just look the better team.

Less impressive win in a pretty scrappy game for England. The pack have started to look good though and after a poor start from Care Van Poortvliet looked excellent again. If England can sort their midfield out (a fairly big if) there at least looks the basis of something there.

There wasn't a huge amount between the sides though. From the Wallabies perspective if they can get a little more front foot ball from their pack, stick Cooper back in at 10 they might back themselves to come away with a win if you ran the series again.