Ser Scot A Ellison Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 9 minutes ago, sologdin said: not good news. i loathe his politics, but malignancy is absolutely hostis humani generis. Indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldGimletEye Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 16 minutes ago, Fez said: Also, I think the election this far out has the potential to scramble the map a bit more than you'd expect. There's about 20 states that I wouldn't be absolutely shocked to see either side win, depending on how things shake out. There's enough different competing trends happening that I think there's a larger number of potential tipping point states than usual. What other 8-9 states do you think could be in play, besides the conventional dozen or so that are considered "battleground" states? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said: What other 8-9 states do you think could be in play, besides the conventional dozen or so that are considered "battleground" states? There are probably 20 or so states that could flip, if either side wins in a landslide. But it barely matters, like the trivia of Obama winning Indiana in 2008. The only thing that matters are the states that have the potential to be the state that puts a candidate over 270 electoral votes (or 269 votes if you're a Republican). States like MN and ME for the Republicans and TX or GA for the Democrats are never going to be the tipping point, because if you win there you've already won. IMO the list of states that could be the tipping point is short: WI, MI, PA, FL, AZ, NC, NH and ME-2. And even the last three are very unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 12 minutes ago, sologdin said: au contraire. We have different conceptions of fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Just now, Maithanet said: There are probably 20 or so states that could flip, if either side wins in a landslide. But it barely matters Yeah, while there could be up to 20 or so "flippable" states in an extreme case, each campaign is only going to commit any type of substantial resources to about a dozen tops, so those are the states to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sologdin Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 different conceptions of fun maybe we can find common ground in the proposition that a reasonable quantum of irrisory laughter at the limbiciles is warranted because of their ordinary wrongness--but not on account of an extraordinary schadenfreude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 I spend my day-job being "responsible" to my students and constantly striving to demonstrate "objectivity" with my superiors. I don't think it's too much to ask to allow me some tongue-in-cheek dark humor on the random politics discussion board I post on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 54 minutes ago, Ormond said: According to census bureau definitions, Vermont is tied with Maine as the most rural state (61% of the population living in "rural" areas), so it's more than just a "bit" more rural. https://gis-portal.data.census.gov/arcgis/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=7a41374f6b03456e9d138cb014711e01 Also, though Vermont ranks in the middle of the states' rankings for median household income, it's median household income is some thousands dollars below the nation's median household income of $61,000+. The High Street of Bennington will make you cry. If Bennington College wasn't there, one feels the state probably would blow away. But! all those mountains and forests hold it together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldGimletEye Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 I'm just the opposite. I spend most of my time being a goof. I try to mix things up and try to be serious by posting comments on random political discussion boards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Maithanet said: States like MN and ME for the Republicans How dare you!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 So mostly cuz I was interested (and because I'm ahead of schedule covering the material), I decided to do a quick poll in class today of my students' preferences. I told them if you plan on eventually voting for Trump, or third party, or "none of the above," or even not at all, put that down. Tried to mention every possible candidate/3rd party that is running I could think of, even mentioned Howie Hawkins. Figured I'd share the results - out of 29 total: Sanders - 14 Biden - 4 Trump - 4 Yang - 2 Warren - 1 Gabbard - 1 None of the above - 1 Don't know ("but definitely not Biden") - 1 Not voting - 1 About what I expected. Can't believe Warren only got 1 though, and Buttigieg was shut out. 11 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: How dare you!!! ? You're objecting cuz your state isn't actually likely to be competitive for Trump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldGimletEye Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Gonna play team Republican until the very end & seriously Biden should have learned the lesson under Obama that the Republican Party isn't interested in bi-partisanship. Biden wants to be Charlie Brown, hoping someday he'll kick that football. There is a lot of talk about electability. How about naivety? https://www.vox.com/2020/2/3/21120958/ernst-biden-impeachment Quote Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA), who once called for impeaching former President Barack Obama over his decision to make recess appointments, is now claiming that it’s Democrats who’ve actually “lowered the bar” for impeachment. A republican being blatantly hypocritical. I'm shocked. Shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 28 minutes ago, DMC said: About what I expected. Can't believe Warren only got 1 though, and Buttigieg was shut out. Is it possible that while wanting younger candidates, young people don't want someone that's closer in age to them than their parents? Quote ? You're objecting cuz your state isn't actually likely to be competitive for Trump? Just screwing around. 2016 was legitly shocking though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: Is it possible that while wanting younger candidates, young people don't want someone that's closer in age to them than their parents? Heh. I'd say the young support for Sanders suggests young voters prefer candidates closer in age to their grandparents than their parents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 57 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said: Gonna play team Republican until the very end & seriously Biden should have learned the lesson under Obama that the Republican Party isn't interested in bi-partisanship. Biden wants to be Charlie Brown, hoping someday he'll kick that football. There is a lot of talk about electability. How about naivety? https://www.vox.com/2020/2/3/21120958/ernst-biden-impeachment A republican being blatantly hypocritical. I'm shocked. Shocked. Why do people keep accusing Republicans of being Hypocritical? To be hypocritical means you have to be aware that your behavior / statements / attitudes are hypocritical. I don't think these people are that aware. So what's the right term for that? Oblivious, deluded? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 hours ago, Maithanet said: There are probably 20 or so states that could flip, if either side wins in a landslide. But it barely matters, like the trivia of Obama winning Indiana in 2008. The only thing that matters are the states that have the potential to be the state that puts a candidate over 270 electoral votes (or 269 votes if you're a Republican). States like MN and ME for the Republicans and TX or GA for the Democrats are never going to be the tipping point, because if you win there you've already won. IMO the list of states that could be the tipping point is short: WI, MI, PA, FL, AZ, NC, NH and ME-2. And even the last three are very unlikely. Disagree. I think Minnesota or Maine could absolutely be the tipping point state. I think a map like this, with Minnesota being the closest state, is entirely. Clinton only won Minnesota by 1.5%, I could see a Democratic nominee having PA and MI snap back more than and win a quickly-moving-left Arizona by a decent margin, but have Minnesota still be razor thin. I could see any of the following be the tipping point state and not be completely shocked: IA, WI, MI, OH, PA FL, and ME-2- The states Trump flipped. Some, like Ohio and Iowa, flipped by a lot. But I don't think can be ruled out as the tipping point state. What if in the map above, Arizona didn't flipped, and something else needs too. The Democratic nominee actually runs really well in the rust belt, but all the voter purges rule out Wisconsin flipping, and its Ohio as the next one that comes back? It's not that likely, but I wouldn't be shocked either. NH, MN, ME, NV, and CO- The states that Clinton won by less than 5%. I could see a Democratic nominee flipping back what they need too from the list above, but something goes wrong elsewhere. There's poor turnout in Nevada, or more rural whites than expected show up in New Hampshire. etc. And it's razor thin either way. It cannot be ruled out. AZ, NC, NE-2- The states Trump won by less than 5% (excluding the flipped ones already mentioned). Arizona is the easy to see tipping point. But I wouldn't rule out the other two. UT- If there's a third party candidate again, I could see a Democrat winning the state with 35% of the vote. Trump only got 45% there in 2016. It'd be a hell of a thing, but again, I wouldn't entirely rule it out. GA and TX- These would be the full realignment tipping point states. Where the Democratic nominee craters even more with non-college whites, but Trump does even worse with suburban women. I could see a map where Democrats only take back a single rust belt state from Trump, either Michigan or Pennsylvania. But they do take back Arizona, that still means one more state needed. Either of these states could be the one. Again, I consider it possible. Beyond these, I could see Virginia turnout cratering with Sanders or Warren as the nominee and it being extremely close. And there's a few other Democratic states I could see things getting funky, like Delaware, where something goes wrong even though the nominee did what they needed to in enough battlegrounds to otherwise win. Again, these aren't all equally likely, but this far out, I wouldn't categorically rule out any of them as the tipping point state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Interesting that here the public radio station is currently hosting a call-in show for the caucus people -- and Bernie is coming in #1, Warren following, and Biden far behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 11 minutes ago, Fez said: UT- If there's a third party candidate again, I could see a Democrat winning the state with 35% of the vote. Trump only got 45% there in 2016. It'd be a hell of a thing, but again, I wouldn't entirely rule it out. GA and TX I think these are both very (very) unlikely scenarios. Other than that, you mentioned 13 states and a Nebraska district. So, yeah, about a dozen states in which resources will be committed. I'd also put Virginia ahead of the above 3, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freshwater Spartan Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 4 hours ago, Fez said: New Morning Consult polling has Bloomberg running best against Trump, at +7; Biden and Sanders are both at +4; Warren and Buttegieg are both at +1. This isn't the first poll with Bloomberg showing what the power of essentially unlimited resources can get you. And since my sole criteria is still who has the best shot at beating Trump, I'm getting real close to declaring myself a Bloomberg supporter in the primary. They also did a national primary poll, which found Bloomberg tied with Warren for third place at 14%, Biden had 28% and Sanders 24%. Buttegieg was down to 6%. Myself and Mrs. Spartan were just talking about the same thing. I think it's increasingly likely that I will be voting for Bloomberg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Ouch. Damn, biden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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