Would the Red Wedding have happened if Jaime was still captive?

[John Suburbs]

3 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Yep

Tyrion thought otherwise 

“More than you know, Father,” Tyrion answered quietly. He finished his wine and set the cup aside, thoughtful. A part of him was more pleased than he cared to admit. Another part was remembering the battle upriver, and wondering if he was being sent to hold the left again. “Why me?” he asked, cocking his head to one side. “Why not my uncle? Why not Ser Addam or Ser Flement or Lord Serrett? Why not a … bigger man?”
Lord Tywin rose abruptly. “You are my son.”
That was when he knew. You have given him up for lost, he thought. You bloody bastard, you think Jaime’s good as dead, so I’m all you have left. Tyrion wanted to slap him, to spit in his face, to draw his dagger and cut the heart out of him and see if it was made of old hard gold, the way the smallfolks said. Yet he sat there, silent and still.”

I think Tyrion was quite wrong in this case, just like he was wrong regarding so many of Tywin's other motivations. Tywin does not have Jaime right now, so he's sending Tyrion. But that doesn't mean Tywin has given him up for dead.

[Hugorfonics]

8 hours ago, Lion of the West said:

Because even with Jamie free most senior nobles seems to have captured as opposed to killed and thus there's some heavy decisions on the Blackfish to decide if he wants to get rid of his one bargin chip or save Jamie for the eventual neogiation with the king's representative over Riverrun's fate when, as @Hugorfonics wrote that Brynden risk losing many more family members if he does kill Jamie in revenge.

Word, killing prisoners is, if nothing else, a bad political move

8 hours ago, Lion of the West said:

But then again the Blackfish might to it in order to go down in a blaze of glory, as he seems to have been wanting to do at Riverrun.

Thats possible I supoose. Still, I dont see anyone marching on Riverrun with Jaime in the cellar

6 hours ago, Lion of the West said:

There is only one Sansa Stark for both emotional attachments and political ends.

Word!

Sansas the heir to the kingdom, thats super important, like the only thing that matters important.

6 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

You do understand these are human lives we're talking about here.

So, war sucks. No ones arguing that. Like in the American Revolution, lots of people died. The colonists put their lives into Washington and Philadelphias hands. More people died, and eventually America was created. 

The Riverlands were massacred, nobleleaders of the North were falsely imprisoned and executed. At every step of the way KL sided with the aggressor. Robbs war was in part for vengeance, for the safety of his uncle and grandpa, and his sister. But also for his kingdom. KL made it perfectly clear that it doesnt care about its constituents, thats a good enough reason to put your rebellion into the hands of Stark and Riverrun, imo

[Angel Eyes]

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Word, killing prisoners is, if nothing else, a bad political move

 

Apparently it never occurred to Robb that leaving her with Joffrey wasn't a very good move, since Joffrey had executed Ned against all advice, showing that he couldn't be trusted. Joffrey could have had Sansa beaten to death one day because he felt like it, Robb wouldn't have done a thing, and the purpose of his war would be lost. For wasn't that part of what he was fighting for, to rescue/avenge his father and sisters?

[Nittanian]

https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1160/

Quote

Many feel that Tywin wouldn't have supported Lord Frey in his plans for the "Red Wedding" if Jaime was still captive in Riverrun. Is that an accurate assessment?

"What if" is always a hard question to answer. Jaime's imprisonment might have made Lord Tywin more cautious, but there are no certainties.

 

[Sigella]

On 2/5/2020 at 4:23 AM, Minsc said:

There are other potential heirs besides Jaime or Tyrion.  Securing his grandson's throne does even more for his legacy.

Nah, those grandsons ain't Lannisters. They have value for what they can do for the Lannisters. (Being children of J&C they would lose value even, because makes them Hills or Waters)

On 2/3/2020 at 11:35 PM, Hugorfonics said:

Why the hell not.

You think Brynden would kill Jaime out of spite while his niece, nephew and bannermen are imprisoned at the Twins?

Might be more spiteful if they got slaughtered though.

On 2/4/2020 at 8:12 AM, Alyn Oakenfist said:

You forget that Tywin's no 1 obsession is legacy. I don't think he would risk being left with only Tyrion as heir just so he doesn't lose a couple thousand men.

This is exactly my thinking.

[Ivan Tsarevich]

On 2/3/2020 at 9:32 PM, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Like what was Cat thinking? That Jaime would be so grateful to release the girls. Even if she thought that, she must have known that Jaime was only a glorified bodyguard. Was she banking on either Tyrion or Tywin. She must have known that both of them were far to smart to willingly give away such a strong bargaining chip, like she did.

I ended up taking a look at this, so if the OP is not too bothered (are you, @Angel Eyes?), might as well post it.

Cat hears from Ser Cleos Frey that Tyrion swore to exchange Jaime for the girls (though I saw no such a vow taking place when reading the scene), and recalls how he denied owning that dagger. ACoK, Catelyn VI.

Spoiler

She waited until evening before going to pay her call upon Ser Cleos Frey, reasoning that the longer she delayed, the drunker he was likely to be. As she entered the tower cell, Ser Cleos stumbled to his knees. "My lady, I knew naught of any escape. The Imp said a Lannister must needs have a Lannister escort, on my oath as a knight—"

"Arise, ser." Catelyn seated herself. "I know no grandson of Walder Frey would be an oathbreaker." Unless it served his purpose. "You brought peace terms, my brother said."

"I did." Ser Cleos lurched to his feet. She was pleased to see how unsteady he was.

"Tell me," she commanded, and he did.

When he was done, Catelyn sat frowning. Edmure had been right, these were no terms at all, except . . . "Lannister will exchange Arya and Sansa for his brother?"

"Yes. He sat on the Iron Throne and swore it."

"Before witnesses?"

"Before all the court, my lady. And the gods as well. I said as much to Ser Edmure, but he told me it was not possible, that His Grace Robb would never consent."

"He told you true." She could not even say that Robb was wrong. Arya and Sansa were children. The Kingslayer, alive and free, was as dangerous as any man in the realm. That road led nowhere. "Did you see my girls? Are they treated well?"

Ser Cleos hesitated. "I . . . yes, they seemed . . ."

He is fumbling for a lie, Catelyn realized, but the wine has fuddled his wits. "Ser Cleos," she said coolly, "you forfeited the protection of your peace banner when your men played us false. Lie to me, and you'll hang from the walls beside them. Believe that. I shall ask you once more—did you see my daughters?"

His brow was damp with sweat. "I saw Sansa at the court, the day Tyrion told me his terms. She looked most beautiful, my lady. Perhaps a, a bit wan. Drawn, as it were."

Sansa, but not Arya. That might mean anything. Arya had always been harder to tame. Perhaps Cersei was reluctant to parade her in open court for fear of what she might say or do. They might have her locked safely out of sight. Or they might have killed her. Catelyn shoved the thought away. "His terms, you said . . . yet Cersei is Queen Regent."

"Tyrion spoke for both of them. The queen was not there. She was indisposed that day, I was told."

"Curious." Catelyn thought back to that terrible trek through the Mountains of the Moon, and the way Tyrion Lannister had somehow seduced that sellsword from her service to his own. The dwarf is too clever by half. She could not imagine how he had survived the high road after Lysa had sent him from the Vale, yet it did not surprise her. He had no part in Ned's murder, at the least. And he came to my defense when the clansmen attacked us. If I could trust his word . . .

She opened her hands to look down at the scars across her fingers. His dagger's marks, she reminded herself. His dagger, in the hand of the killer he paid to open Bran's throat. Though the dwarf denied it, to be sure. Even after Lysa locked him in one of her sky cells and threatened him with her moon door, he had still denied it. "He lied," she said, rising abruptly. "The Lannisters are liars every one, and the dwarf is the worst of them. The killer was armed with his own knife."

Ser Cleos stared. "I know nothing of any—"

"You know nothing," she agreed, sweeping from the cell.

She later confirms Tyrion's story from Jaime, before setting him free. ACoK, Catelyn VII.

Spoiler

Her hand was at the door pull when he said, "Lady Stark." She turned, waited. "Things go to rust in this damp," Jaime went on. "Even a man's courtesies. Stay, and you shall have your answers . . . for a price."

He has no shame. "Captives do not set prices."

"Oh, you'll find mine modest enough. Your turnkey tells me nothing but vile lies, and he cannot even keep them straight. One day he says Cersei has been flayed, and the next it's my father. Answer my questions and I'll answer yours."

"Truthfully?"

"Oh, it's truth you want? Be careful, my lady. Tyrion says that people often claim to hunger for truth, but seldom like the taste when it's served up."

"I am strong enough to hear anything you care to say."

"As you will, then. But first, if you'd be so kind . . . the wine. My throat is raw."

Catelyn hung the lamp from the door and moved the cup and flagon closer. Jaime sloshed the wine around his mouth before he swallowed. "Sour and vile," he said, "but it will do." He put his back to the wall, drew his knees up to his chest, and stared at her. "Your first question, Lady Catelyn?"

Not knowing how long this game might continue, Catelyn wasted no time. "Are you Joffrey's father?"

"You would never ask unless you knew the answer."

"I want it from your own lips."

He shrugged. "Joffrey is mine. As are the rest of Cersei's brood, I suppose."

"You admit to being your sister's lover?"

"I've always loved my sister, and you owe me two answers. Do all my kin still live?"

"Ser Stafford Lannister was slain at Oxcross, I am told."

Jaime was unmoved. "Uncle Dolt, my sister called him. It's Cersei and Tyrion who concern me. As well as my lord father."

"They live, all three." But not long, if the gods are good.

Jaime drank some more wine. "Ask your next."

Catelyn wondered if he would dare answer her next question with anything but a lie. "How did my son Bran come to fall?"

"I flung him from a window."

The easy way he said it took her voice away for an instant. If I had a knife, I would kill him now, she thought, until she remembered the girls. Her throat constricted as she said, "You were a knight, sworn to defend the weak and innocent."

"He was weak enough, but perhaps not so innocent. He was spying on us."

"Bran would not spy."

"Then blame those precious gods of yours, who brought the boy to our window and gave him a glimpse of something he was never meant to see."

"Blame the gods?" she said, incredulous. "Yours was the hand that threw him. You meant for him to die."

His chains chinked softly. "I seldom fling children from towers to improve their health. Yes, I meant for him to die."

"And when he did not, you knew your danger was worse than ever, so you gave your catspaw a bag of silver to make certain Bran would never wake."

"Did I now?" Jaime lifted his cup and took a long swallow. "I won't deny we talked of it, but you were with the boy day and night, your maester and Lord Eddard attended him frequently, and there were guards, even those damned direwolves . . . it would have required cutting my way through half of Winterfell. And why bother, when the boy seemed like to die of his own accord?"

"If you lie to me, this session is at an end." Catelyn held out her hands, to show him her fingers and palms. "The man who came to slit Bran's throat gave me these scars. You swear you had no part in sending him?"

"On my honor as a Lannister."

"Your honor as a Lannister is worth less than this." She kicked over the waste pail. Foul-smelling brown ooze crept across the floor of the cell, soaking into the straw.

Jaime Lannister backed away from the spill as far as his chains would allow. "I may indeed have shit for honor, I won't deny it, but I have never yet hired anyone to do my killing. Believe what you will, Lady Stark, but if I had wanted your Bran dead I would have slain him myself."

Gods be merciful, he's telling the truth. "If you did not send the killer, your sister did."

"If so, I'd know. Cersei keeps no secrets from me."

"Then it was the Imp."

"Tyrion is as innocent as your Bran. He wasn't climbing around outside of anyone's window, spying."

"Then why did the assassin have his dagger?"

"What dagger was this?"

"It was so long," she said, holding her hands apart, "plain, but finely made, with a blade of Valyrian steel and a dragonbone hilt. Your brother won it from Lord Baelish at the tourney on Prince Joffrey's name day."

Lannister poured, drank, poured, and stared into his wine cup. "This wine seems to be improving as I drink it. Imagine that. I seem to remember that dagger, now that you describe it. Won it, you say? How?"

"Wagering on you when you tilted against the Knight of Flowers." Yet when she heard her own words Catelyn knew she had gotten it wrong. "No . . . was it the other way?"

"Tyrion always backed me in the lists," Jaime said, "but that day Ser Loras unhorsed me. A mischance, I took the boy too lightly, but no matter. Whatever my brother wagered, he lost . . . but that dagger did change hands, I recall it now. Robert showed it to me that night at the feast. His Grace loved to salt my wounds, especially when drunk. And when was he not drunk?"

Tyrion Lannister had said much the same thing as they rode through the Mountains of the Moon, Catelyn remembered. She had refused to believe him. Petyr had sworn otherwise, Petyr who had been almost a brother, Petyr who loved her so much he fought a duel for her hand . . . and yet if Jaime and Tyrion told the same tale, what did that mean? The brothers had not seen each other since departing Winterfell more than a year ago. "Are you trying to deceive me?" Somewhere there was a trap here.

"I've admitted to shoving your precious urchin out a window, what would it gain me to lie about this knife?" He tossed down another cup of wine. "Believe what you will, I'm past caring what people say of me. And it's my turn. Have Robert's brothers taken the field?"

Thus she loses her personal reason, the Littlefinger's lie about the ownership of the dagger, (nevermind the ongoing hostilities and the trickery Tyrion recently employed during the negotiations) to distrust Tyrion, whom Jaime also believes Cat is setting her hope in. ASoS, Jaime I.

Spoiler

They'd all done a deal of vowing back in that cell, Jaime most of all. That was Lady Catelyn's price for loosing him. She had laid the point of the big wench's sword against his heart and said, "Swear that you will never again take up arms against Stark nor Tully. Swear that you will compel your brother to honor his pledge to return my daughters safe and unharmed. Swear on your honor as a knight, on your honor as a Lannister, on your honor as a Sworn Brother of the Kingsguard. Swear it by your sister's life, and your father's, and your son's, by the old gods and the new, and I'll send you back to your sister. Refuse, and I will have your blood." He remembered the prick of the steel through his rags as she twisted the point of the sword.

I wonder what the High Septon would have to say about the sanctity of oaths sworn while dead drunk, chained to a wall, with a sword pressed to your chest? Not that Jaime was truly concerned about that fat fraud, or the gods he claimed to serve. He remembered the pail Lady Catelyn had kicked over in his cell. A strange woman, to trust her girls to a man with shit for honor. Though she was trusting him as little as she dared. She is putting her hope in Tyrion, not in me. "Perhaps she is not so stupid after all," he said aloud.

In the next chapter (ASoS, Catelyn I) Jaime's thoughts are confirmed either by Cat's inner narration or outside narrator, I don't know what to call it. Cat also reiterates the publicity of the oath Tyrion made. Do note that Edmure does not attack Tyrion's trustworthiness, despite having a good reason to do so. Instead he counters by mentioning Tyrion's health, which admittedly kind of does render the former irrelevant.

Spoiler

"No right," Edmure repeated. "He was Robb's captive, your king's captive, and Robb charged me to keep him safe."

"Brienne will keep him safe. She swore it on her sword."

"That woman?"

"She will deliver Jaime to King's Landing, and bring Arya and Sansa back to us safely."

"Cersei will never give them up."

"Not Cersei. Tyrion. He swore it, in open court. And the Kingslayer swore it as well."

"Jaime's word is worthless. As for the Imp, it's said he took an axe in the head during the battle. He'll be dead before your Brienne reaches King's Landing, if she ever does."

"Dead?" Could the gods truly be so merciless? She had made Jaime swear a hundred oaths, but it was his brother's promise she had pinned her hopes on.

Edmure was blind to her distress. "Jaime was my charge, and I mean to have him back. I've sent ravens—"

"Ravens to whom? How many?"

"Three," he said, "so the message will be certain to reach Lord Bolton. By river or road, the way from Riverrun to King's Landing must needs take them close by Harrenhal."

"Harrenhal." The very word seemed to darken the room. Horror thickened her voice as she said, "Edmure, do you know what you have done?"

"Have no fear, I left your part out. I wrote that Jaime had escaped, and offered a thousand dragons for his recapture."

Worse and worse, Catelyn thought in despair. My brother is a fool. Unbidden, unwanted, tears filled her eyes. "If this was an escape," she said softly, "and not an exchange of hostages, why should the Lannisters give my daughters to Brienne?"

However, one might think that Catelyn had already made her choice to free Jaime before confirming Tyrion's dagger story. She has heard the news of Bran and Rickon earlier in the chapter (ACoK, Catelyn VII)

Spoiler

"There was another bird this morning." Catelyn did not know why she said it. "The maester woke me at once. That was dutiful, but not kind. Not kind at all." She had not meant to tell Brienne. No one knew but her and Maester Vyman, and she had meant to keep it that way until . . . until . . .

Until what? Foolish woman, will holding it secret in your heart make it any less true? If you never tell, never speak of it, will it become only a dream, less than a dream, a nightmare half-remembered? Oh, if only the gods would be so good.

"Is it news of King's Landing?" asked Brienne.

"Would that it was. The bird came from Castle Cerwyn, from Ser Rodrik, my castellan." Dark wings, dark words. "He has gathered what power he could and is marching on Winterfell, to take the castle back." How unimportant all that sounded now. "But he said . . . he wrote . . . he told me, he . . ."

"My lady, what is it? Is it some news of your sons?"

Such a simple question that was; would that the answer could be as simple. When Catelyn tried to speak, the words caught in her throat. "I have no sons but Robb." She managed those terrible words without a sob, and for that much she was glad.

Brienne looked at her with horror. "My lady?"

"Bran and Rickon tried to escape, but were taken at a mill on the Acorn Water. Theon Greyjoy has mounted their heads on the walls of Winterfell. Theon Greyjoy, who ate at my table since he was a boy of ten." I have said it, gods forgive me. I have said it and made it true.

and asks Brienne to come with her to the dungeons, having already sent wine to Jaime.

Spoiler

She stared at her scarred hands, opened and closed them, then slowly raised her eyes. "I've sent him wine."

"Wine?" Brienne was lost. "Robb? Or . . . Theon Greyjoy?"

"The Kingslayer." The ploy had served her well with Cleos Frey. I hope you're thirsty, Jaime. I hope your throat is dry and tight. "I would like you to come with me."

"I am yours to command, my lady."

"Good." Catelyn rose abruptly. "Stay, finish your meal in peace. I will send for you later. At midnight."

"So late, my lady?"

"The dungeons are windowless. One hour is much like another down there, and for me, all hours are midnight."

At her fathers solar, she thinks she has to do her duty.

Spoiler

Catelyn never noticed when the singing ended. Hours had passed, yet it seemed only a heartbeat before Brienne was at the door. "My lady," she announced softly. "Midnight has come."

Midnight has come, Father, she thought, and I must do my duty. She let go of his hand.

But in the Jaime's cell she is actually about to abandon whatever plans she has already made. She wants answers, and as it seems that she can't get them, she's leaving.

Spoiler

Catelyn shouldered aside the heavy wood-and-iron door and stepped into foul darkness. This was the bowels of Riverrun, and smelled the part. Old straw crackled underfoot. The walls were discolored with patches of nitre. Through the stone, she could hear the faint rush of the Tumblestone. The lamplight revealed a pail overflowing with feces in one corner and a huddled shape in another. The flagon of wine stood beside the door, untouched. So much for that ploy. I ought to be thankful that the gaoler did not drink it himself, I suppose.

Jaime raised his hands to cover his face, the chains around his wrists clanking. "Lady Stark," he said, in a voice hoarse with disuse. "I fear I am in no condition to receive you."

"Look at me, ser."

"The light hurts my eyes. A moment, if you would." Jaime Lannister had been allowed no razor since the night he was taken in the Whispering Wood, and a shaggy beard covered his face, once so like the queen's. Glinting gold in the lamplight, the whiskers made him look like some great yellow beast, magnificent even in chains. His unwashed hair fell to his shoulders in ropes and tangles, the clothes were rotting on his body, his face was pale and wasted . . . and even so, the power and the beauty of the man were still apparent.

"I see you had no taste for the wine I sent you."

"Such sudden generosity seemed somewhat suspect."

"I can have your head off anytime I want. Why would I need to poison you?"

"Death by poison can seem natural. Harder to claim that my head simply fell off." He squinted up from the floor, his cat-green eyes slowly becoming accustomed to the light. "I'd invite you to sit, but your brother has neglected to provide me a chair."

"I can stand well enough."

"Can you? You look terrible, I must say. Though perhaps it's just the light in here." He was fettered at wrist and ankle, each cuff chained to the others, so he could neither stand nor lie comfortably. The ankle chains were bolted to the wall. "Are my bracelets heavy enough for you, or did you come to add a few more? I'll rattle them prettily if you like."

"You brought this on yourself," she reminded him. "We granted you the comfort of a tower cell befitting your birth and station. You repaid us by trying to escape."

"A cell is a cell. Some under Casterly Rock make this one seem a sunlit garden. One day perhaps I'll show them to you."

If he is cowed, he hides it well, Catelyn thought. "A man chained hand and foot should keep a more courteous tongue in his mouth, ser. I did not come here to be threatened."

"No? Then surely it was to have your pleasure of me? It's said that widows grow weary of their empty beds. We of the Kingsguard vow never to wed, but I suppose I could still service you if that's what you need. Pour us some of that wine and slip out of that gown and we'll see if I'm up to it."

Catelyn stared down at him in revulsion. Was there ever a man as beautiful or as vile as this one? "If you said that in my son's hearing, he would kill you for it."

"Only so long as I was wearing these." Jaime Lannister rattled his chains at her. "We both know the boy is afraid to face me in single combat."

"My son may be young, but if you take him for a fool, you are sadly mistaken . . . and it seems to me that you were not so quick to make challenges when you had an army at your back."

"Did the old Kings of Winter hide behind their mothers' skirts as well?"

"I grow weary of this, ser. There are things I must know."

"Why should I tell you anything?"

"To save your life."

"You think I fear death?" That seemed to amuse him.

"You should. Your crimes will have earned you a place of torment in the deepest of the seven hells, if the gods are just."

"What gods are those, Lady Catelyn? The trees your husband prayed to? How well did they serve him when my sister took his head off?" Jaime gave a chuckle. "If there are gods, why is the world so full of pain and injustice?"

"Because of men like you."

"There are no men like me. There's only me."

There is nothing here but arrogance and pride, and the empty courage of a madman. I am wasting my breath with this one. If there was ever a spark of honor in him, it is long dead. "If you will not speak with me, so be it. Drink the wine or piss in it, ser, it makes no matter to me."

Based on all this, we can say that she hoped Tyrion Lannister, whom she now can give a benefit of doubt, would make good on his public oath, made in answer to terms Ser Cleos brought from Robb to KL after the battles of the Whispering Wood and the Camps.

Furthermore, Jaime does not seem to think any problems on returning the girls. ASoS, Jaime III.

Jaime had decided that he would return Sansa, and the younger girl as well if she could be found. It was not like to win him back his lost honor, but the notion of keeping faith when they all expected betrayal amused him more than he could say.

[Hugorfonics]

21 hours ago, Sigella said:

Nah, those grandsons ain't Lannisters. They have value for what they can do for the Lannisters.

Thats good enough. Tywin didn't really care about Lannister legacy, he cared about Tywins legacy

21 hours ago, Sigella said:

Might be more spiteful if they got slaughtered though.

If they all got slaughtered like Robb? Probably. After all what good is owning the Riverlands without Riverlords? Family Duty Honor with no family?

Still, weird thing to do. There's more profit in living Riverlords (and Jaime and Sansa) then dead ones

On 2/5/2020 at 8:29 PM, Angel Eyes said:

Apparently it never occurred to Robb that leaving her with Joffrey wasn't a very good move, since Joffrey had executed Ned against all advice, showing that he couldn't be trusted. 

That was a weird thing to do. Totally out of left field. Joff just didnt understand the political implications of whatll happen, or he didnt care. Either way, Cersei schooled Joff about not killing Sansa

Quote

Frowning, he lowered the crossbow. "I'd shoot you too, but if I do Mother says they'd kill my uncle Jaime. Instead you'll just be punished and we'll send word to your brother about what will happen to you if he doesn't yield. Dog, hit her."

 

On 2/5/2020 at 8:29 PM, Angel Eyes said:

. Joffrey could have had Sansa beaten to death one day because he felt like it, 

Even on accident. 

On 2/5/2020 at 8:29 PM, Angel Eyes said:

 Robb wouldn't have done a thing, 

Not a damn thing. He knee the price for Sansa was Jaime and decided thats too much. A grave mistake in his kingdoms short lived life.

On 2/5/2020 at 8:29 PM, Angel Eyes said:

and the purpose of his war would be lost. For wasn't that part of what he was fighting for, to rescue/avenge his father and sisters?

That was part of it. Another part was to rescue his uncle and grandfather. But Neds little girl is not whats holding this northern campaign together.

Quote

"MY LORDS!" he shouted, his voice booming off the rafters. "Here is what I say to these two kings!" He spat. "Renly Baratheon is nothing to me, nor Stannis neither. Why should they rule over me and mine, from some flowery seat in Highgarden or Dorne? What do they know of the Wall or the wolfswood or the barrows of the First Men? Even their gods are wrong. The Others take the Lannisters too, I've had a bellyful of them." He reached back over his shoulder and drew his immense two-handed greatsword. "Why shouldn't we rule ourselves again? It was the dragons we married, and the dragons are all dead!" He pointed at Robb with the blade. "There sits the only king I mean to bow my knee to, m'lords," he thundered. "The King in the North!" And he knelt, and laid his sword at her son's feet.

"I'll have peace on those terms," Lord Karstark said.

Its the north, open rebellion. Because its evident that the capital doesnt have their interests at heart

[Lord Lannister]

There's no way Tywin would have initiated the Red Wedding if Jaime's line was on the line. Jaime's life was too important to him. Walder Frey was obviously open to betraying Robb, so Tywin would have him close the Twins at a bad time and declare for the Lannisters. 

That would put Tywin in a position of strength to negotiate Robb's surrender. Robb was trapped in the Riverlands, the Karstarks had betrayed him, the Freys declared for his enemies, the Boltons may be right behind them and the Ironborn are ransacking the north. 

Tywin said when you force someone to bend the knee, the first thing you do it help them back to their feet. He'd be in a place to do that for Robb. He has a rather large problem with the Ironborn at the moment, which Tywin could help him with. Tywin would have fingers in the Riverlands and North having secured the loyalty of the Freys and possibly Boltons and marrying Tyrion to Sansa. For the small price of bending the knee Robb can save face, and drive the Ironborn out of the North, who Tywin needs to deal with anyway.

If Robb didn't go for that, it's very likely he's betrayed by someone close to him. Like the Westerlings who need to earn back favor and who were working with he Lannisters.