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Angel Eyes

Would the Red Wedding have happened if Jaime was still captive?

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So if Robb still kept Jaime Lannister captive, would Tywin have given the go-ahead for the Red Wedding if he feared what any remaining forces would do to Jaime if it went ahead? Note: I am not wholly blaming Catelyn, I mostly blame Robb for the Red Wedding because Robb made no attempt to help Sansa so Catelyn was desperate enough to free Jaime and as such they lost any leverage (alongside the Jeyne Westerling plot).

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18 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

So if Robb still kept Jaime Lannister captive, would Tywin have given the go-ahead for the Red Wedding if he feared what any remaining forces would do to Jaime if it went ahead?

I'm pretty sure that he wouldn't dare to do such a thing, especially seing as Jaime would probably have been kept at Riverrun. In such a scenario he probably would have opted to defeat Robb more conventionally as by that point he had such numerical superiority he could have easily smashed Robb in the Riverlands (tho with heavy casualties).

21 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

I mostly blame Robb for the Red Wedding because Robb made no attempt to help Sansa

While Robb was clearly the main culprit of the Red Wedding by marrying Jeyne Westerling instead of a Frey (heck he didn't even need to marry a Frey, just maintain the betrothal to be broken when the war ended), on the Jaime part Cat is 100% to blame. First off, how was Robb supposed to help Sansa? Also being desperate in no excuse to sabotaging the war effort. Like what was Cat thinking? That Jaime would be so grateful to release the girls. Even if she thought that, she must have known that Jaime was only a glorified bodyguard. Was she banking on either Tyrion or Tywin. She must have known that both of them were far to smart to willingly give away such a strong bargaining chip, like she did. I mean even if Tywin had eventually destroyed Robb in the field, Jaime still could have been use to negotiate for their lives and probably the Lord Paramountship of the North. Had Jaime still been alive they could have negotiated something along the lines of: Robb takes the Black while Jon is made Lord Paramount of the North.

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1 hour ago, Angel Eyes said:

So if Robb still kept Jaime Lannister captive, would Tywin have given the go-ahead for the Red Wedding if he feared what any remaining forces would do to Jaime if it went ahead? Note: I am not wholly blaming Catelyn, I mostly blame Robb for the Red Wedding because Robb made no attempt to help Sansa so Catelyn was desperate enough to free Jaime and as such they lost any leverage (alongside the Jeyne Westerling plot).

Tywin would have stayed his hand if Jaime was still captive. And while I don't "blame" Cat for the RW, it doesn't change the fact that it wouldn't have happened if Jaime was still at RR.

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Yes, Tywin isn't a sentimental father.  He would easily sacrifice Jaime if it wins the war at little other cost to him. 

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9 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

So if Robb still kept Jaime Lannister captive, would Tywin have given the go-ahead for the Red Wedding if he feared what any remaining forces would do to Jaime if it went ahead? Note: I am not wholly blaming Catelyn, I mostly blame Robb for the Red Wedding because Robb made no attempt to help Sansa so Catelyn was desperate enough to free Jaime and as such they lost any leverage (alongside the Jeyne Westerling plot).

Robb had a greater obligation to the men and women who answered his battle call than he does to Sansa.  He was correct to give her a lower priority.  

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4 hours ago, Minsc said:

Yes, Tywin isn't a sentimental father.  He would easily sacrifice Jaime if it wins the war at little other cost to him.

You forget that Tywin's no 1 obsession is legacy. I don't think he would risk being left with only Tyrion as heir just so he doesn't lose a couple thousand men.

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20 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

You forget that Tywin's no 1 obsession is legacy. I don't think he would risk being left with only Tyrion as heir just so he doesn't lose a couple thousand men.

There are other potential heirs besides Jaime or Tyrion.  Securing his grandson's throne does even more for his legacy.

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10 hours ago, Minsc said:

There are other potential heirs besides Jaime or Tyrion.  Securing his grandson's throne does even more for his legacy.

Yeah, but after the Blackwater the war was already won. The only thing that was changed due to the Red Wedding was that the Westerman didn't suffer any other losses. So between sacrificing a couple thousand soldiers or losing Jaime, I think Tywin would have chosen to sacrifice some soldiers.

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On 2/3/2020 at 8:03 PM, Angel Eyes said:

So if Robb still kept Jaime Lannister captive, would Tywin have given the go-ahead for the Red Wedding if he feared what any remaining forces would do to Jaime if it went ahead? Note: I am not wholly blaming Catelyn, I mostly blame Robb for the Red Wedding because Robb made no attempt to help Sansa so Catelyn was desperate enough to free Jaime and as such they lost any leverage (alongside the Jeyne Westerling plot).

I think the Red Wedding would still have gone ahead. If the alternativ is to let Robb slip through Tywin's fingers and escape North then I think Tywin would have gone along. What might have changed could be that there would have been that Tywin would have demanded that Robb be captured to give his blessings to the action. Because even with Jamie free most senior nobles seems to have captured as opposed to killed and thus there's some heavy decisions on the Blackfish to decide if he wants to get rid of his one bargin chip or save Jamie for the eventual neogiation with the king's representative over Riverrun's fate when, as @Hugorfonics wrote that Brynden risk losing many more family members if he does kill Jamie in revenge.

But then again the Blackfish might to it in order to go down in a blaze of glory, as he seems to have been wanting to do at Riverrun.

So its a real gamble for Tywin, but one that I think that Tywin would be willing to do. After all I see few scenarios of a post-war settlement where Tywin both lives and isn't on the winning side.

On 2/4/2020 at 5:44 AM, The Lord of the Crossing said:

Robb had a greater obligation to the men and women who answered his battle call than he does to Sansa.  He was correct to give her a lower priority.  

Not really. Family is family and his men-at-arms are Robb's servants, not his family.

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23 minutes ago, Lion of the West said:

Not really. Family is family and his men-at-arms are Robb's servants, not his family.

And his men at arms were in the tens of thousands while Sansa was just one. That I think was one of Robb's greater traits, his responsibility over his men, and his choice of choosing duty over love on that regard (if only he would have continued said trend and not married Jeyne).

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It would have happened anyway. Before Cat released Jaime, Tywin was sending his letters, Roose was hunting wolves and sending Northmen to die at Duskendale, and the Freys claimed that they had been 'dishonored' and called off Elmar's marriage to Arya.

The only difference would have been that Tywin would have demanded that highborn hostages were being taken in order to exchange them for Jaime afterwards. So, ironically, the main consequence of Cat releasing Jaime was that she was killed instead of sent back to her uncle in exchange for the Kingslayer.

On 2/4/2020 at 8:12 AM, Alyn Oakenfist said:

I don't think he would risk being left with only Tyrion as heir just so he doesn't lose a couple thousand men.

There's no real risk. The Blackfish would never murder a prisoner. Specially if Cat, Edmure, the Greatjon, and a few more River and Northern lordlings are held hostages.

Edited by The hairy bear

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19 minutes ago, The hairy bear said:

There's no real risk. The Blackfish would never murder a prisoner. Specially if Cat, Edmure, the Greatjon, and a few more River and Northern lordlings are held hostages.

The Blackfish was believing Edmure as good as dead and was ready to throw his life away, the Blackfish would not flinch about killing Jaime. If only to make Tywin suffer.

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1 hour ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

And his men at arms were in the tens of thousands while Sansa was just one. That I think was one of Robb's greater traits, his responsibility over his men, and his choice of choosing duty over love on that regard (if only he would have continued said trend and not married Jeyne).

Family is still family. Numbers are not really important here. And the valuing of kinship can be found in pretty much all houses who would often trade thousands of commoner lives in exchange for one of their blood to survive.

Robb can get new men-at-arms, as sellswords if needs be, but he can't get a new sister no matter how much money he pays or victories he wins. Nor can the Lannisters get hold of a new daughter of Eddard Stark, no matte how much gold they put on the table.

There is only one Sansa Stark for both emotional attachments and political ends.

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2 minutes ago, Lion of the West said:

Numbers are not really important here.

You do understand these are human lives we're talking about here.

3 minutes ago, Lion of the West said:

And the valuing of kinship can be found in pretty much all houses who would often trade thousands of commoner lives in exchange for one of their blood to survive.

And that right there is one of the main problems of feudalism.

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8 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

You do understand these are human lives we're talking about here.

Yes. But you do understand that Sansa is also a human with a human life held in the claws of her enemies? And that she is kin to Robb Stark who operates in a feudal system where he, as the head of his house, is supposed to protect his kin and not let them hang out to dry in order to show others under his protection that he can do the same for them?

And that's not even touching the inheritance issues that does crop up when Robb don't get Sansa back but leaves her in Lannister hands.

8 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

And that right there is one of the main problems of feudalism.

Indeed. Regardless of how great stories that is produced around it, its a pretty horrible system to organize society.

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2 minutes ago, Lion of the West said:

Yes. But you do understand that Sansa is also a human with a human life held in the claws of her enemies? And that she is kin to Robb Stark who operates in a feudal system where he, as the head of his house, is supposed to protect his kin and not let them hang out to dry in order to show others under his protection that he can do the same for them?

Yes, but she's one person. Robb's responsibility is to his subjects. All his subjects. That's why is was noble of him to focus on his subjects life, and very ignoble and stupid to marry Jeyne. This is also why I think Edmure is one of the best lords in Westeros.

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Just now, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Yes, but she's one person. Robb's responsibility is to his subjects. All his subjects. That's why is was noble of him to focus on his subjects life, and very ignoble and stupid to marry Jeyne. This is also why I think Edmure is one of the best lords in Westeros.

I agree about Edmure, at least on being the kind of lord I would want over me. But to me family is very important, and I see it as important in this setting's socio-political system, so I do fault Robb for giving upp on his own sister.

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13 hours ago, Minsc said:

There are other potential heirs besides Jaime or Tyrion.  Securing his grandson's throne does even more for his legacy.

Yep

On 2/3/2020 at 2:16 PM, John Suburbs said:

Tywin would have stayed his hand if Jaime was still captive. And while I don't "blame" Cat for the RW, it doesn't change the fact that it wouldn't have happened if Jaime was still at RR.

Tyrion thought otherwise 

“More than you know, Father,” Tyrion answered quietly. He finished his wine and set the cup aside, thoughtful. A part of him was more pleased than he cared to admit. Another part was remembering the battle upriver, and wondering if he was being sent to hold the left again. “Why me?” he asked, cocking his head to one side. “Why not my uncle? Why not Ser Addam or Ser Flement or Lord Serrett? Why not a … bigger man?”
Lord Tywin rose abruptly. “You are my son.”
That was when he knew. You have given him up for lost, he thought. You bloody bastard, you think Jaime’s good as dead, so I’m all you have left. Tyrion wanted to slap him, to spit in his face, to draw his dagger and cut the heart out of him and see if it was made of old hard gold, the way the smallfolks said. Yet he sat there, silent and still.”

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