Kevan and Pycelle’s death

[Ygrain]

10 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Here's a hypothetical. If Melisandre decided to burn Monster because he is supposed to be Mance's son, and then Jon decides to burn Mel to avenge the child's death (whom people at the Wall except for a select handful believe is Mance's son), it wouldn't change that it's Gilly's baby who would have died rather than Mance's since that one is off in Oldtown, safe.

Aye. So, does burning Mel point to the child being true or fake? It doesn't.

10 hours ago, Crona said:

I think Rhaenys and the pisswater prince are dead. Varys wanting vengeance for their deaths would suggest Aegon is alive as he wouldn’t raise a fake Aegon if he felt a need to avenge them.

Only if revenge was his singular motive for whatever he does. However, the way he talks about Aegon's upbringing, he wanted to create a perfect ruler. Besides... while the way Kevan and Pycelle were murdered might be a hint towards the murders of Rhaenys and Aegon, it DOESN'T mean that Varys actually gives a shit. For all we know, he might have made this reference for someone to catch up on it and presume Dorne was somehow involved. It's Varys we are talking about here. If he did care for Rhaenys and Aegon so much, it was fully within his powers to take both children along with Elia into the tunnels before the walls were scaled.

[Crona]

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Varys brings up Princess Rhaenys specifically during a conversation with Ned in AGoT:

He does care. This is one of the few points where Varys talks about the fate of other people - and while he spends less time with Ned than he does with Tyrion, Ned clearly is the man Varys is more honest with about his ultimate designs and goals. Ned is the kind of man Varys would want to recruit for his Aegon-led future government whereas Tyrion is more like a weapon to be used in the common wars to outmaneuver and defeat the enemy ... but not one you would want to give too prominent a role in a future government considering his character flaws.

It is no accident that he mentions Princess Rhaenys here, just as it is no accident that he omits Prince Aegon who might be still alive.

And all the Targaryen allusions and hints we see Varys dropping throughout the books all are more likely to reference Aegon rather than Dany. Just as 'the savior' and 'the dragon with three heads' Illyrio references in the first Tyrion chapter of ADwD also does not (only) refer to Dany but, of course, to Aegon.

I don't think he used the crossbow for that. Possibly not even a blunt instrument but some kind of weapon. Pycelle was dead for quite some time at this point as the coldness of the room indicates.

There is a parallel there, but also a considerable difference. The babe's head was crushed against a wall, Pycelle head was just cracked open, possibly by a single powerful blow. I also don't think this was particularly 'risky' considering Pycelle's age, the absence of guards, and Varys' ability to move without making a sound.

Sure, part of the reason why Pycelle is killed is that he is responsible for the Sack and all the dead caused by it, including that of Aerys II, Elia, and the royal grandchildren.

It is the children in general as can be drawn from Varys' quote about the game of thrones I gave above. Aegon is a tool to create a lasting peace, to prevent the continuation of the game of thrones the high lords always play. One can imagine that Varys' plan for Aegon is not that he is going to be a figurehead king who is surrounded by the same kind of grasping and bickering nobility Aerys II and Robert had to deal with, but rather a king who continues and pushes through the same kind of reforns Aegon V tried to implement.

Considering that he actually seemed to care about Rhaenys this is pretty likely accurate. We have to wait and see how Kevan's body is described when they find it in TWoW, though.

Yes, I do believe Varys had brought up Rhaenys for a reason and he does care about her. 

As for the weapon used to kill Pycelle, I didn’t see any mention of a different weapon and the crossbow can do the same job. I would be open to different weapons but to me it would be unnecessary. Pycelle was alive a few hours before as he attended the council meeting, it was during Cersei’s meeting Pycelle died. He couldn’t have been dead for more than a few hours. Also, Pycelle soiled himself and Varys opened the window and it’s snowing outside.

I interpreted their deaths as very similar visually. I doubt Varys would drag Pycelle to a wall to bash his head. It’s sufficient enough to wack him over the head. I think going close to someone and bashing their head is more riskier than standing away and shooting a quarrel. Varys doesn’t strike me as someone who wants to be physically close to someone to kill them. I think he wanted to kill Pycelle this way because of anger and hatred.

I slightly disagree, I don’t think Varys cares about other kids, he is shown mostly indifferent towards Sansa, Dany and Viserys. It is Aegon and Rhaenys that he actually takes actions for and supports.

 

 

 

[Crona]

28 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Only if revenge was his singular motive for whatever he does. However, the way he talks about Aegon's upbringing, he wanted to create a perfect ruler. Besides... while the way Kevan and Pycelle were murdered might be a hint towards the murders of Rhaenys and Aegon, it DOESN'T mean that Varys actually gives a shit. For all we know, he might have made this reference for someone to catch up on it and presume Dorne was somehow involved. It's Varys we are talking about here. If he did care for Rhaenys and Aegon so much, it was fully within his powers to take both children along with Elia into the tunnels before the walls were scaled.

If he has the real Aegon within his possession then his actions here makes sense, as it give motive for Varys. You haven’t given me a motive that is different. 

Aegon can still be real if Varys wants him to be the perfect ruler

I can’t think of any other reason why he would do this then. He has always talked about Rhaenys with sadness and his voice becomes deeper when he talks about Aegon. While you can say he may not care, I guess it’s up to interpretation 

what about this message would Dorne care for? How would they even have the foresight to connect this to Aegon and Rhaenys death. 

We don’t know what happened during the sack. 

I don’t see the point of over complicating the story by making him fake when he can be real with a simpler explanation. 

[Walda]

It is a great catch - Pycelle and Kevan mimic the deaths of Aegon and Rhaenys. 

Except, Aegon isn't dead, according to Varys. 

There is a 'for the children' theme with Ned as well as Varys, and we know in Ned's case, when he crossed his fingers and wrote 'heir' rather than 'son, Joffrey', telling himself that he was doing it 'for the children'... well, it didn't do much good for any children, especially not Barra and Mya and whatever other bastard he was imagining to himself. Really, he was giving Cersei every justification to accuse him of playing Robert false. And he was playing Robert false. (I find it hard to believe it had never occurred to him that Joffrey was not his biological son, before the incident at Darry. Robert understood the art of negotiation, the subtleties of makinge friends and influencing people, in a way that Eddard never did. Tywin's  'gift' of the bodies of the royal children after the sack of King's Landing? Well, I'm not sure it was Amory Lorch and Gregor Clegane that did the dirty work - seems to me that Varys might have had his reasons for ensuring that Lord Tywin and his men were stuck with those atrocities, and Lord Tywin made lemonade with crushed and stabbed baby lemons, passing the blame for the atrocities, and nominally the throne, on to Robert, while remaining the power behind it. Of course he would rather have had his own son, before he knew that Aegon and Rhaenys were dead. But their being dead gave Robert a fig-leaf of pretension to the throne (if we ignore Viserys and Daenarys, like they did), and Tywin controlled the city, so it was either that or Ned's exhausted and war-weary host could be slaughtered before Robert and his host of wounded and exhausted men from the Trident even got there.  Can't help but think that Ned must have crossed his fingers and held off on that one for the sake of the children that would die if the Lannister and Stark armies tore each other apart in the streets of King's Landing. When Robert arrived, he settled it all amicably, sent Ned off to settle with Mace and those forces that Tywin could claim if he were acting in the interest of his old chum Aerys, as he could pretend to have been. He could pretend that Ned had killed their King, have stared down the fat flower and friends like he did when Mace asked him what they were doing about the Dornishmen demanding vengeance for Elia. But why, when he had Robert taking all the blame, and he controlled Robert and could ensure his own blood inherited the throne. 

Interestingly, both Tywin and Eddard seem to want nothing to do with Robert after the deal was done, whatever it was.

So yeah, whatever children Varys is doing it for, it isn't because he has an interest in implementing a scheme for universal pediatric speech therapy and early education throughout Westeros. And I don't think he wants the Targaryens back, or he would have done something better for Viserys and Daenarys. They were probably lucky to be out of King's Landing - Varys is the person that could have got from the throne room to the nursery faster than Gregor could get from the flagpole above the Guardsroom on the outer wall (where he hoisted down the Targaryen colours) to the nursery chambers of Prince Rhaegar in Maegor's Keep (Which I suspect was in or near the same place where Arya in her cat-chasing encountered Tommen and Myrcella and their Septa.)

Also, I don't think Pycelle was clobbered by a crossbow administered by Varys, but by the huge iron reading candle stick, administered by the mute girl, the 'sweet child' that brought him his sweet milk and tended him so faithfully over the first five books.  That is why there were rivers of wax in his brains. It also means that both he and Kevan were killed by the children, not Varys.

Tywin was also killed more by Varys than Tyrion. It was Varys that told Tyrion exactly how to get to his father's chamber, that put Shae's chest of pretty things exactly below the crossbow he decided to install on the wall of the Hand's bedroom, that got Shae a private audience with the Hand so she might get her stuff back (that is, if Varys had not already handed Shae over to Tywin - I have this feeling the time that Shae and Tyrion got it on at Varys', there was one candle there so that Tywin could watch what was going on from some dark corner. In either case, it would be very Varys to make himself useful by knowing how to smuggle her in and out of the tower of the hand discreetly.) So, yeah, Varys planned it out. Set up Tyrion to make a rash act, then telling him how to while telling him not to, knowing he would. And he did.

[szbszig]

15 hours ago, Ser Leftwich said:

Since Kevan had fallen to the floor already, this is unlikely to be apparent from his wounds. Also, above and beyond that, even this basic of forensic analysis seems beyond the skills of Westeros.

That's true. Yet, they may discover that the wounds inflicted on Kevan come from different weapons and different people. So it's possible that they will jump to the wrong conclusion that the deaths of Pycelle and Kevan was part of a broad conspiracy, not the doing of one man. Which could instigate even more fear in Cersei and chaos in the royal court, making fAegon's conquest of Westeros easier.

[Ygrain]

5 hours ago, Crona said:

If he has the real Aegon within his possession then his actions here makes sense, as it give motive for Varys. You haven’t given me a motive that is different. 

And why his actions would be different if Aegon was an impostor? Fake or real, in order to push Aegon on the IT, Varys needs to undermine the current powerholders.

Personally, I lean towards Varys planning a covert Blackfyre restoration and fAegon being a Blackfyre pretendent in the female line, with Varys either a direct relative himself or supporting his friend Illyrio (Aegon's potential father, with Serra)

5 hours ago, Crona said:

what about this message would Dorne care for? How would they even have the foresight to connect this to Aegon and Rhaenys death. 

I meant that someone paranoid (Cersei) might jump at the connection (or be conveniently whispered through some pawn). With the Myrcella situation and Sandsnakes heading to KL, yet another keg of gunpowder for her to explode.

5 hours ago, Crona said:

We don’t know what happened during the sack. 

We don't. Therefore, we cannot claim that it was absolutely outside the realm of possibility for Varys to save the royal children, either. And since we have an example of another Master of Whisperers who did save the royal offspring in this way, one must needs ask why Varys didn't seem to give a shit and had to rely on a babyswap when, to his best knowledge, KL was about to go up in green flames and thus no corpses would be missed.

5 hours ago, Crona said:

I don’t see the point of over complicating the story by making him fake when he can be real with a simpler explanation. 

Because we already have one secret prince, because the War of the Roses did have its pretenders, because Varys' supposed care for the royal children doesn't ring true in someone who uses mutilated children as his spies and because, as another schemer tells us, you must always keep your role, even when you are alone.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

54 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Personally, I lean towards Varys planning a covert Blackfyre restoration and fAegon being a Blackfyre pretendent in the female line, with Varys either a direct relative himself or supporting his friend Illyrio (Aegon's potential father, with Serra)

I know this is the speculation most people are leaning toward, but Illyrio's story about Serra and how he met her and married her is practically the same as the Widow of the Waterfront's story with her Volantene triarch, (and that story has some similarities to the story of Saera Targaryen).   

I am desperately trying not to topple this thread into something else, it's not working very well right now.

About Jon Snow, the baby switch at the Wall has been added for a reason. What has been happening at the Wall with Jon's election and the baby switch is a small scale enterprise that parallels the larger undertaking in Varys's camp. 

Quote

Aye. So, does burning Mel point to the child being true or fake? It doesn't.

The point I was trying to make with this is that while the world would believe that Jon burned Mel for the sake of Mance Rayder's son, he would have instead burned Mel to avenge Gilly's boy instead. Only Jon, Val, Sam and Gilly would know the truth as it really is, while everyone else would carry on believing that it was Mance's son who was burned.

 

[Crona]

1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

And why his actions would be different if Aegon was an impostor? Fake or real, in order to push Aegon on the IT, Varys needs to undermine the current powerholders.

Personally, I lean towards Varys planning a covert Blackfyre restoration and fAegon being a Blackfyre pretendent in the female line, with Varys either a direct relative himself or supporting his friend Illyrio (Aegon's potential father, with Serra)

I meant that someone paranoid (Cersei) might jump at the connection (or be conveniently whispered through some pawn). With the Myrcella situation and Sandsnakes heading to KL, yet another keg of gunpowder for her to explode.

We don't. Therefore, we cannot claim that it was absolutely outside the realm of possibility for Varys to save the royal children, either. And since we have an example of another Master of Whisperers who did save the royal offspring in this way, one must needs ask why Varys didn't seem to give a shit and had to rely on a babyswap when, to his best knowledge, KL was about to go up in green flames and thus no corpses would be missed.

Because we already have one secret prince, because the War of the Roses did have its pretenders, because Varys' supposed care for the royal children doesn't ring true in someone who uses mutilated children as his spies and because, as another schemer tells us, you must always keep your role, even when you are alone.

Alright I give you two scenarios:

Varys raises a fake Aegon to get power for the Blackfyres then teaches this fake Aegon that he is Aegon but really not and will not tell the Fake Aegon that he is really a Blackfyre. And these Blackfyres hate the Lannisters instead of the Martells and Targs. Then has Pycelle die of blunt force trauma and has Kevan stabbed multiple times while holding a crossbow for shits and giggles because he doesn’t care about the children. 

or

Varys has the real Aegon, raises him, and wants him to take his rightful throne. Killed Kevan and Pycelle in this manner as revenge for Rhaenys and the pisswater prince.

which one makes more sense?

i don’t think it takes much for Cersei to go off and in fact she’ll probably finger Tyrion, Tyrells, and Dorne for this, even Varys says so. I don’t think he cares to control her reaction as long as it’s not rational. 

we don’t know what happened during the sack regarding the child’s possible swap. No point in trying to speculate, GRRM has not given this information for a reason. However we can’t deny supporting arguments for either one as either possibility could be true.

I didn’t know you were allowed to only have one secret prince in a story and are we sure Jon will take the title as Prince? I am not familiar with War of the Roses but I doubt GRRM will take everything from war of the roses, I did not make an argument that Varys cared for children, I said he cared for only Rhaenys and Aegon, he is indifferent towards others. So because LF doesn’t know who’s around him to listen, this somehow applies to Varys? Why even tell Kevan about Aegon then?

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

6 hours ago, Walda said:

Varys is the person that could have got from the throne room to the nursery faster than Gregor could get from the flagpole above the Guardsroom on the outer wall (where he hoisted down the Targaryen colours) to the nursery chambers of Prince Rhaegar in Maegor's Keep (Which I suspect was in or near the same place where Arya in her cat-chasing encountered Tommen and Myrcella and their Septa.)

Indeed. Doesn't that lend credence to him doing just that though? Removing the real Aegon & leaving another in his place? It certainly could have happened, as you say he had the means. 

6 hours ago, Walda said:

Tywin was also killed more by Varys than Tyrion. It was Varys that told Tyrion exactly how to get to his father's chamber, that put Shae's chest of pretty things exactly below the crossbow he decided to install on the wall of the Hand's bedroom, that got Shae a private audience with the Hand so she might get her stuff back (that is, if Varys had not already handed Shae over to Tywin - I have this feeling the time that Shae and Tyrion got it on at Varys', there was one candle there so that Tywin could watch what was going on from some dark corner. In either case, it would be very Varys to make himself useful by knowing how to smuggle her in and out of the tower of the hand discreetly.) So, yeah, Varys planned it out. Set up Tyrion to make a rash act, then telling him how to while telling him not to, knowing he would. And he did.

Varys definitely allowed this to happen. I don't think Tywin was killed more by Varys than Tyrion though, Tyrion ultimately decided to pull the trigger. 

How do we know Varys installed the crossbow, got Shae to Tywin, put her stuff under the crossbow, & left one candle lit? Varys isn't the house maid he is the Master of Whispers & it would certainly not be above or below him to arrange an audience with the Hand for Shae we don't really have any evidence that happened do we? 

[Crona]

7 hours ago, Walda said:

 

Also, I don't think Pycelle was clobbered by a crossbow administered by Varys, but by the huge iron reading candle stick, administered by the mute girl, the 'sweet child' that brought him his sweet milk and tended him so faithfully over the first five books.  That is why there were rivers of wax in his brains. It also means that both he and Kevan were killed by the children, not Varys.

 

This is a great point, I can definitely see this happening

[Crona]

1 hour ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I know this is the speculation most people are leaning toward, but Illyrio's story about Serra and how he met her and married her is practically the same as the Widow of the Waterfront's story with her Volantene triarch, (and that story has some similarities to the story of Saera Targaryen).   

Not only that but his story of her hand in his home could not be true as the hand would carry greyscale. He also had offered Tyrion to visit the prince’s menagerie meaning he was not barred from the palace

[Alexis-something-Rose]

14 minutes ago, Crona said:

Not only that but his story of her hand in his home could not be true as the hand would carry greyscale. He also had offered Tyrion to visit the prince’s menagerie meaning he was not barred from the palace

I'm more inclined to think that Illyrio is the descendant of Saera Targaryen and her Volantene Triarch than a Blackfyre through the female line. There's too much talk of elephant around Illyrio that it feels like a joke at this point. 

 

[Crona]

15 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I'm more inclined to think that Illyrio is the descendant of Saera Targaryen and her Volantene Triarch than a Blackfyre through the female line. There's too much talk of elephant around Illyrio that it feels like a joke at this point. 

 

He could be but I really can’t tell what his background is. I think the bigger question for me is what connection does Varys and Illyrio have with Rhaenys and Aegon (both). Could it just be guilt or something more? 

Illyrio seems to be very knowledgeable about westeros especially during Aerys time as a foreigner. I think he may have lived in westeros during Aerys reign for a time.

[Lord Varys]

8 hours ago, Walda said:

They were probably lucky to be out of King's Landing - Varys is the person that could have got from the throne room to the nursery faster than Gregor could get from the flagpole above the Guardsroom on the outer wall (where he hoisted down the Targaryen colours) to the nursery chambers of Prince Rhaegar in Maegor's Keep (Which I suspect was in or near the same place where Arya in her cat-chasing encountered Tommen and Myrcella and their Septa.)

No, that wouldn't have worked. There are no secret tunnels within Maegor's Holdfast. Varys could not possibly sneak in Elia's apartments unseen. He would have to cross the drawbridge, get across the guards at the entrance and in front of the royal apartments inside, etc.

The only secret passage in Maegor's is a secret escape way in the king's apartments - the one Aegon II and his children used to flee from Rhaenyra during the Dance. This secret escape way is unconnected to the other tunnels to prevent that Maegor the Cruel would be spied on or attacked by the people he used to spy on his own court.

However, we have no idea where Varys was during the Sack. He could have gone to Elia to exchange the babes after the council session where Aerys II decided to open the gates to Tywin - or he could have done this earlier, after the Trident, when it became clear that KL would be besieged by the rebels and Aerys II refused to allow Elia and her children to remove themselves to Dragonstone with Rhaella and Viserys.

Even Cersei took such a precaution by sending Tommen to Rosby in disguise when Stannis' forces were approaching the city.

With the king not allowing Elia's children to leave a baby swap could also fool Aerys II himself - explaining why Rhaenys (who was much older and could thus not easily be disguised) remained there.

44 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I'm more inclined to think that Illyrio is the descendant of Saera Targaryen and her Volantene Triarch than a Blackfyre through the female line. There's too much talk of elephant around Illyrio that it feels like a joke at this point.

That is not very likely. Such people would no longer care about the Iron Throne. Do we see some Penroses or Plumms or even Martells scheme to seat themselves on the Iron Throne? No, we don't. If Varys/Illyrio do have a connection to the blood of the dragon (either on the Blackfyre or the Targaryen side) it must be quite recent. They themselves wouldn't care if it was different, nor would the men of the Golden Company work with them.

In fact, if there is a Blackfyre connection one assumes that they are close descendants of a sister or daughter of Maelys the Monstrous or descended from that Daemon (IV) Blackfyre Maelys murdered to take over the Golden Company. Guys from a generation before with no direct connection to Bittersteel or the Golden Company would likely no longer care, either.

And on the Targaryen side they cannot be legitimate offspring. Such princes would be known. They could not possibly hide or disappear.

[Megorova]

16 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I know this is the speculation most people are leaning toward, but Illyrio's story about Serra and how he met her and married her is practically the same as the Widow of the Waterfront's story with her Volantene triarch, (and that story has some similarities to the story of Saera Targaryen).  

My guess is that Serra was Varys' sister or half-sister. Their mother was Jenny of Oldstones. Blackfyres kidnapped her during burning of Summerhall. Either they are twins and both are children of Maelys' the Monstrous, or only Varys is Maelys' son, while Serra's father is either Duncan Targaryen or Daemon Blackfyre, and Serra is Varys' older half-sister. After Maelys killed Daemon and went to fight in the War of Ninepenny Kings, he left Jenny with Alequo Adarys. The War happened in 260, six months later the rest of the Band of Nine (except Alequo) were defeated, while Alequo continued to rule in Tyrosh for 6 more years, and then he was poisoned by his queen. He died in 267, not in 266, the Wikia is incorrect about the year of his death. Six years after the War is 266, but there are additional 6 months between the end of the War and the fall of the Band of Nine, and then 6 more years until Alequo's death, so he died in 266 + 6 more months, thus in 267. I think that this "queen" was Jenny, and that she killed Alequo with usage of blood magic, because he sold her children into slavery. Varys was sold to traveling mummers, and Serra was sold into pillowhouse. The year of Alequo's death is relevant because in 267 in Westeros died Tytos Lannister - "The following year, 267 AC, saw the death of Lord Tytos Lannister at the age of six-and-forty. Reportedly, his lordship’s heart burst as he was climbing a steep turnpike stair to the bedchambers of his mistress." Could be that his death was caused by blood magic, not by heart attack. To kill Alequo, his queen Jenny paid with life of her relative, Tytos, so Alequo wasn't poisoned, he was killed by magic. My guess is that Jenny was Tytos' younger sister, and the fifth child of Rohanne Webber-Lannister, the Red Widow (like the Black Widow spider, that's why Varys, Rohanne's grandson, is the Spider). Rohanne was a user of blood magic, and now she is known to readers under alliase the Ghost of High Heart. Maybe Varys' sister is Serra, or maybe Jenny's other child is Melisandre. Could be that there was three children born by Jenny - Melisandre, Serra, Varys. Or Mel is Varys' sister, while Serra isn't, she could be not related to Blackfyres and could be descendant of either Saera Targaryen, or descendant from one of Brightflame's bastards, fathered by him during his exile in Lys (or it's Illyrio who is Saera's or Brightflame's descendant). Though it makes more sense for Serra to be a Blackfyre, in which case Golden Company were willing to support her and Illyrio's child as their future ruler. Though Serra died (without leaving any children), and Varys can't have children, thus Golden Company had to look elsewhere for someone with a Blackfyre blood. That's when Shiera Seastar made her reappearance, and poined GC to Barristan Selmy, who is possibly Aenys Blackfyre's grandson. So GC sent Simon Toyne (relative of Myles Toyne, captain-general of GC) after Barristan, Shiera glamoured herself to look like a septa, and they staged attack of Kingswood Brotherhood, from which Barristan saved Jeyne Swann (who also was in on that conspiracy). Then Shiera slipped him love potion, and Jeyne seduced him, and later gave birth to fAegon. Septa Lemore is Jeyne Swann, and she is fAegon's mother. All Blackfyres and Targaryens after Aegon IV are partially Swanns, because Aegon IV' mother, Larra Rogare, was Johanna Swann's daughter. Thus, Johanna Swann is paternal great-grandmother to King Daeron II Targaryen, Daemon I Blackfyre, Bittersteel, Bloodraven and Shiera Seastar. And additionally to Shiera Johanna is also her maternal grandmother, because Shiera's mother, Sereney of Lys, and Larra Rogare is the same person. Larra/Sereney also was a shadowbinder and a user of blood magic, and so is Shiera, same as Rohanne Webber, same as Jenny, same as Melisandre. 

There's a long-winded Blackfyre conspiracy in ASOIAF, that started way back with the Black Swan of Lys. And GRRM gave to readers small clue in that direction, he tied together Tyrion Lannister and nowadays GC with Johanna Swann -

"Can you tell me the name of the knight who tried the same ploy with Vhagar during the Dance of the Dragons?”

Tyrion grinned. “Ser Byron Swann. He was roasted for his trouble … only the dragon was Syrax, not Vhagar.”

“I fear that you’re mistaken. In The Dance of the Dragons, A True Telling, Maester Munkun writes—”

“—that it was Vhagar. Grand Maester Munkun errs. Ser Byron’s squire saw his master die, and wrote his daughter of the manner of it. His account says it was Syrax, Rhaenyra’s she-dragon, which makes more sense than Munken’s version. Swann was the son of a marcher lord, and Storm’s End was for Aegon. Vhagar was ridden by Prince Aemond, Aegon’s brother. Why should Swann want to slay her?” "

Ser Byron was Johanna Swann's father, he was not the head of their House, the Lord of House Swann was Johanna's uncle, who refused to pay ransom for his niece, when she was kidnapped by the Triarchy. Johanna became a famous courtesan and eventually became ruler of Lys in all but name. The other de facto ruler of Lys was Lysandro Rogare, who was owner of famous pleasure house, the Perfumed Garden. So here's connection between Septa Lemore/Jeyne Swann and the Perfumed Garden, so the Perfumed Seneschal, about whom Quaithe/Shiera had warned Dany, is fAegon's mother. fAegon is a Blackfyre thru his father, Barristan Selmy, who is a Blackfyre thru his mother, who was Aenys' Blackfyre daughter.

Seems that when years ago Varys arrived to Westeros, he was preparing there ground for the Sixth Blackfyre Rebellion. He had an agreement with Golden Company that they will support him, and he will crown Serra's and Illyrio's child as the ruler of 7K. But then Serra died, and Rhaegar had spoiled Varys' plans by kidnapping Lyanna. In span of Robert's Rebellion nearly all Kingdoms of Westeros became a united front, so after the Rebellion the situation in 7K was unfavourable for Blackfyre or any other invasion. Varys needed more time to ununite people of 7K, and for a new candidate who will become Blackfyre leader (fAegon) to grow up. 

Varys arrived to Westeros in 278. fAegon was apparently conceived in early 281, possibly on the same night when Rhaegar and Elia conceived Aegon. The same comet, that was on that night passing above King's Landing, was also seen from Kingswood, where Kingswood Brotherhood staged their fake attack on Jeyne Swann (that's why Blackfyres think that fAegon will lead them to victory, because they believe that he and not real Aegon is the Promised Prince, while their version of the threeheaded dragon is fAegon, Varys and Illyrio). Seems that Serra died between 278 and early 281, closer to 281, otherwise they (GC/Blackfyres) would have done something sooner to find/make their new future leader to replace Serra's unborn Blackfyre heir. Rhaenys Targaryen was born in second half of 280, so could be that Varys planned that in the future, Serra's son will marry with Princes Rhaenys, and that, in addition to Blackfyre gaining 7K thru conquest, that marriage will legitimize their claim over Iron Throne. So Varys was saddened by Rhaenys' death, not because he felt pity for her, but because he had plans on her, but Lannisters ruined those plans by killing her. So Varys was actively targeting Lannisters as revenge for them ruining his plans. He let Littlefinger to blame Joffrey's poisoning on Tyrion, ordered Mandon Moore to disfigure Tyrion, ordered Gerold Dayne to disfigure Myrcella, let Tyrion to kill Tywin, and killed Kevan, all that as revenge for spoiling Varys' plans. Because of Rhaenys' death Blackfyres will be unable to legitimize fAegon taking over Targaryen crown, instead they were forced to raise fAegon as Targaryen, and to conceal his real identity. Because of that now Blackfyres are forced to forever remain as pretenders. Apparently Varys took that offence very personally. 

[Crona]

36 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

 

That is not very likely. Such people would no longer care about the Iron Throne. Do we see some Penroses or Plumms or even Martells scheme to seat themselves on the Iron Throne? No, we don't. If Varys/Illyrio do have a connection to the blood of the dragon (either on the Blackfyre or the Targaryen side) it must be quite recent. They themselves wouldn't care if it was different, nor would the men of the Golden Company work with them.

In fact, if there is a Blackfyre connection one assumes that they are close descendants of a sister or daughter of Maelys the Monstrous or descended from that Daemon (IV) Blackfyre Maelys murdered to take over the Golden Company. Guys from a generation before with no direct connection to Bittersteel or the Golden Company would likely no longer care, either.

And on the Targaryen side they cannot be legitimate offspring. Such princes would be known. They could not possibly hide or disappear.

I am thinking there may be a Martell connection with Varys and Illyrio as they seem to favor Aegon and Rhaenys. The rulers in Dorne do take Essosi partners, perhaps Illyrio or Varys are related to Elia.

Also, we don’t know the consort of Elia’s mother, could the consort be related to Illyrio?

[Ygrain]

2 hours ago, Crona said:

Alright I give you two scenarios:

Varys raises a fake Aegon to get power for the Blackfyres then teaches this fake Aegon that he is Aegon but really not and will not tell the Fake Aegon that he is really a Blackfyre. And these Blackfyres hate the Lannisters instead of the Martells and Targs. Then has Pycelle die of blunt force trauma and has Kevan stabbed multiple times while holding a crossbow for shits and giggles because he doesn’t care about the children. 

or

Varys has the real Aegon, raises him, and wants him to take his rightful throne. Killed Kevan and Pycelle in this manner as revenge for Rhaenys and the pisswater prince.

which one makes more sense?

A strawman. The  scenarios can combine and recombine, with additional information and ulterior motives.

2 hours ago, Crona said:

i don’t think it takes much for Cersei to go off and in fact she’ll probably finger Tyrion, Tyrells, and Dorne for this, even Varys says so. I don’t think he cares to control her reaction as long as it’s not rational. 

Except that he planted a Highgarden coin after arranging Tyrion's escape to implicate the Tyrells. Why shouldn't he continue using the same strategy, perhaps even plant a few whispers around KL that revenge is coming for House Lannister? Propaganda is a powerful tool.

2 hours ago, Crona said:

we don’t know what happened during the sack regarding the child’s possible swap. No point in trying to speculate, GRRM has not given this information for a reason. However we can’t deny supporting arguments for either one as either possibility could be true.

I didn’t know you were allowed to only have one secret prince in a story and are we sure Jon will take the title as Prince?

You are allowed to have as many secret princes as you want, just like stunted dwarves, mothers of dragons, one-handed swordfighters...

2 hours ago, Crona said:

I am not familiar with War of the Roses but I doubt GRRM will take everything from war of the roses,

Sure he won't, he has taken quite a couple of pages from other history books, as well. But because there was a pretender - two, IIRC - it is possible that he might throw one in, as well. 

2 hours ago, Crona said:

I did not make an argument that Varys cared for children, I said he cared for only Rhaenys and Aegon, he is indifferent towards others.

And why did he come to care about Rhaenys and Aegon? He didn't seem to be friends with Rhaegar or Elia, so why did he take to them?

Besides, being cruel to some children really makes one doubt a person's ability to really care for other children.

2 hours ago, Crona said:

So because LF doesn’t know who’s around him to listen, this somehow applies to Varys?

It is a universal rule how to behave as a schemer. If Varys is playing a role, then he should follow the same rules, the same safety precautions, just like those LF is passing on to Sansa in her role as Alayne.

 

2 hours ago, Crona said:

Why even tell Kevan about Aegon then?

Sounded like good old gloating to me, it had to suck not to be able to talk about his grand plan which seemed to be so successfully under the way.

3 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I know this is the speculation most people are leaning toward, but Illyrio's story about Serra and how he met her and married her is practically the same as the Widow of the Waterfront's story with her Volantene triarch, (and that story has some similarities to the story of Saera Targaryen).   

The story may not be true, but it seems that there did exist a woman called Serra, whose looks were not very far from Targ.

3 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

The point I was trying to make with this is that while the world would believe that Jon burned Mel for the sake of Mance Rayder's son, he would have instead burned Mel to avenge Gilly's boy instead. Only Jon, Val, Sam and Gilly would know the truth as it really is, while everyone else would carry on believing that it was Mance's son who was burned.

 

Ah, I see. And I meant that it doesn't point one way or the other for the reader.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

36 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That is not very likely. Such people would no longer care about the Iron Throne. Do we see some Penroses or Plumms or even Martells scheme to seat themselves on the Iron Throne? No, we don't. If Varys/Illyrio do have a connection to the blood of the dragon (either on the Blackfyre or the Targaryen side) it must be quite recent. They themselves wouldn't care if it was different, nor would the men of the Golden Company work with them.

The Martells are not scheming to seat themselves on the Iron Throne, but they are scheming to have one of their own become queen, with the pact of Arianne/Viserys or having Quentyn become Dany's consort. So it's not like there isn't something going on there. 

As far as the Golden Company goes, the men want to go home. They were willing to go to Westeros with Viserys of all people leading them there. Jon Connington who is staunch of Targaryen became one of their members. I think things may have changed since the days of Aegor Rivers and Maelys the Monstrous.

45 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

And on the Targaryen side they cannot be legitimate offspring. Such princes would be known. They could not possibly hide or disappear.

Would they, though? Saera's sons were all bastards. 

In any case, my tin foil on Illyrio's involvement is that it's an Elia connection rather than a black or red dragon one.

[Therae]

4 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Because we already have one secret prince, because the War of the Roses did have its pretenders, because Varys' supposed care for the royal children doesn't ring true in someone who uses mutilated children as his spies and because, as another schemer tells us, you must always keep your role, even when you are alone.

Just to add to this, we also have the vision of the Mummer's Dragon; to be fair, that could suggest a puppet Targaryen as easily as a fake one, but fake seems more likely.

Quote

"A dead man in the prow of a ship, a blue rose, a banquet of blood . . . what does any of it mean, Khaleesi? A mummer's dragon, you said. What is a mummer's dragon, pray?"
"A cloth dragon on poles," Dany explained. "Mummers use them in their follies, to give the heroes something to fight." - CoK, Daenerys V

Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun's son and the mummer's dragon. Trust none of them. - DwD, Daenerys II

 

[Crona]

22 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

A strawman. The  scenarios can combine and recombine, with additional information and ulterior motives.

Except that he planted a Highgarden coin after arranging Tyrion's escape to implicate the Tyrells. Why shouldn't he continue using the same strategy, perhaps even plant a few whispers around KL that revenge is coming for House Lannister? Propaganda is a powerful tool.

You are allowed to have as many secret princes as you want, just like stunted dwarves, mothers of dragons, one-handed swordfighters...

Sure he won't, he has taken quite a couple of pages from other history books, as well. But because there was a pretender - two, IIRC - it is possible that he might throw one in, as well. 

And why did he come to care about Rhaenys and Aegon? He didn't seem to be friends with Rhaegar or Elia, so why did he take to them?

Besides, being cruel to some children really makes one doubt a person's ability to really care for other children.

It is a universal rule how to behave as a schemer. If Varys is playing a role, then he should follow the same rules, the same safety precautions, just like those LF is passing on to Sansa in her role as Alayne.

 

Sounded like good old gloating to me, it had to suck not to be able to talk about his grand plan which seemed to be so successfully under the way.

The story may not be true, but it seems that there did exist a woman called Serra, whose looks were not very far from Targ.

Ah, I see. And I meant that it doesn't point one way or the other for the reader.

Could you tell me what is straw man about the argument. Is not the fake Aegon Blackfyre theory means Varys/Illyrio raises a person who is really a Blackfyre as Aegon. Then ends up ruling as Aegon, not as a Blackfyre and Varys/Illyrio not telling him he’s a Blackfyre. Which begs the question of why even make Aegon fake, when if he’s real it still makes sense without making the storyline complicated.

i don’t get it, are you saying he killed in this manner to mimic the kids death to throw off Cersei only? Even if he done it for this reason only, it still does not prove Aegon is fake, he could still do this even if Aegon is real.

we don’t have much information from Varys time during Aerys reign. He seemed to not care for Rhaegar but we don’t know how he felt towards Elia. Perhaps, he felt that his council was rejected and lead to their horrible deaths and feels guilt. He also always talked about Rhaenys and Aegon in a sad or deep tone. Elia found Tyrion cute and was described as having sweet wit, perhaps Varys and her got along. We also don’t know Elia’s mother’s consort, who may be related. We just don’t know yet.

Thats really not the argument, Aegon and Rhaenys are just two people he cares for and others not. Going by your example, Cat treating Jon bad would mean that she was a bad mother for her children or would not be able to empathize with Brienne. 

i don’t think the same thing applies to Varys, I think it only applies to some scenarios. Varys was able to listen to the council meeting undetected, and had kids hidden in the chambers, I am pretty sure he would know if there are others around. Also, if he wasn’t sure of the ears around him then he shouldn’t have said anything, which Varys should know.