US Politics: I Say a Little Prayer for You!

[Fragile Bird]

There are no atheists in a foxhole...

See what I did?

[Zorral]

Ha!

@DMC  -- You are probably familiar with Rachel Bitecofer and her "Radical Political Theory"?

Quote

An Unsettling New Theory: There Is No Swing Voter
Rachel Bitecofer’s radical new theory predicted the midterms spot-on.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944

 

[sologdin]

it is an intuitive thesis--just who are these numbnut fence-sitters who change their minds every other day, poll by poll? 

disseminating her predictive model has the risk of counterperformativity, though. i hope her model has a self-reflexive control.

Quote

If she’s right, it wouldn’t just blow up the conventional wisdom; it would mean that much of the lucrative cottage industry of political experts—the consultants and pollsters and (ahem) the reporters—is superfluous, an army of bit players with little influence over the outcome. 

i.e., election commentary as a bullshit job?

[Jace, Extat]

Just now, sologdin said:

 

disseminating her predictive model has the risk of counterperformativity, though. i hope her model has a self-reflexive control.

 

Just because you dress it up in pretty language doesn't make it any less filthy.

I'm into it though, keep going. Tell me more about self-reflexive control models during predictive dissemination...

[sologdin]

jace--

NSFW

 

It means the Emperor is going to dissolve that body permanently. 

charles I prorogued parliament and the consequent personal rule cost him his head.  trump is however more likely to understand his advisers if they talk like this:

Quote

The Senate will no longer be of any concern to us. I have just received word that the President has dissolved the council permanently. The last remnants of the Old Republic have been swept away.

But that's impossible. How will the President maintain control without the bureaucracy?

The regional gauleiters now have direct control over their territories. Fear will keep the local systems in line.  

[Kalbear]

Quote

Bitecofer’s theory, when you boil it down, is that modern American elections are rarely shaped by voters changing their minds, but rather by shifts in who decides to vote in the first place. 

I thought this was pretty much accepted now. Is it not? I was fearing some really bizarre ideology, but the combination of polarization and extremist views and the inability to ever work together at the national level means that this was going to be the most likely outcome. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Ice queen,

It means the Emperor is going to dissolve that body permanently.

That would mean the Trump administration is throwing out the Constitution and any pretense of abiding by the Constitution.  Everyone would drop the gloves at that point. 

[Zorral]

I hope people -- and more of them -- continue to comment on the Bitecofer theory.

My own sense is 1) grand unified theories are accurate about nothing!  2) this doesn't seem to address voter repression, suppression, ttheft, tech failure, money spent by whom, internet entities such as fb and foreign entities, trolls, bots, and just plain deliberate interference with campaigns, elections, vote count fakery, etc.

So then, why is she the shiny thing now?

Forgive me, but her name, for some reason my lousy vision insists on seeing as 'covfefe'.

[Kalbear]

1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Ice queen,

That would mean the Trump administration is throwing out the Constitution and any pretense of abiding by the Constitution.  Everyone would drop the gloves at that point. 

So? 

I'm serious - so what? We have already literally seen the pretense dropped. Trump, after having been acquitted - what did he do? The very first thing? Tweeted out a "Trump 2032, 2036, 2040" graphic. Trump's team blocked all congressional power of oversight, and the main reason that the dems didn't go to court about it is because it would likely take too long AND not turn out in their favor, because the courts are rigged now. 

 

[Jace, Extat]

51 minutes ago, sologdin said:

jace--

NSFW

 

It means the Emperor is going to dissolve that body permanently. 

charles I prorogued parliament and the consequent personal rule cost him his head.  trump is however more likely to understand his advisers if they talk like this:

You're such a dog.

[sologdin]

because the courts are rigged now. 

are they? i can't imagine conservative jurists ruling in favor of a third (or seventh) trump term unless the 22nd amendment were amended. 

Everyone views socialism as a threat.  

i don't.  so you continue to be 100% wrong.  again. am not surprised.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

37 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

So? 

I'm serious - so what? We have already literally seen the pretense dropped. Trump, after having been acquitted - what did he do? The very first thing? Tweeted out a "Trump 2032, 2036, 2040" graphic. Trump's team blocked all congressional power of oversight, and the main reason that the dems didn't go to court about it is because it would likely take too long AND not turn out in their favor, because the courts are rigged now. 

 

They maintain a pretense.  They claim to be abiding by the Constitution and pay it lip service.  If the Legislature is eliminated there is no way to continue to pay lip service and we're simply a dictatorship.  I don't know that they would lose in court given the clear precedent in Nixon v. US.  I think they should have sought to enforce the subpoenas.  

I recognize the utter hypocrisy of the President's defense team claiming no "proper evidence" was brought by the House Managers because the White House had denied them the ability to obtain that evidence prior to the Senate Trial.  I do think the House should have gone to Court and sought expedited hearings on the rejected Subpoenas.  

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

19 minutes ago, sologdin said:

because the courts are rigged now. 

are they? i can't imagine conservative jurists ruling in favor of a third (or seventh) trump term unless the 22nd amendment were amended. .

Neither can I.  Yes, Trump has appointed a lot of Judges but that doesn't mean all the judges he appointed to life time terms are going to be his loyalists and willing to utterly set aside the rule of law.

[Ran]

9 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I do think the House should have gone to Court and sought expedited hearings on the rejected Subpoenas.  

As Schiff said, the White House  could tie up these things in litigation for years and, in the end, could ultimately just decide to ignore judicial orders, as they've already been doing in other areas. The Constitution is not structured in a way to allow the legislature or the judiciary to compel actions from a lawless executive.

[Kalbear]

2 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Neither can I.  Yes, Trump has appointed a lot of Judges but that doesn't mean all the judges he appointed to life time terms are going to be his loyalists and willing to utterly set aside the rule of law.

Wait until 2024. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

1 minute ago, Ran said:

As Schiff said, the White House  could tie up these things in litigation for years and, in the end, could ultimately just decide to ignore judicial orders, as they've already been doing in other areas. The Constitution is not structured in a way to allow the legislature or the judiciary to compel actions from a lawless executive.

I know, but it would have made it more difficult for Trump's defense team to offer the bullshit they offered in the Senate.  I can't imagine a Court not granting an expedited schedule in a situation this serious.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

5 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Wait until 2024. 

Because then all the Judges will be in Trump's pocket?  Because then Trump will eliminate any Federal Legislature?  What are we waiting for?

[Ran]

I think it's much likelier that in 2024 Trump will anoint one of his children (or Jared) as his successor, throw all the power of the Presidency to twist the arm of the GOP to make it so. The chances he decides to run for a third term are nil.

[Kalbear]

2 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Because then all the Judges will be in Trump's pocket?  Because then Trump will eliminate any Federal Legislature?  What are we waiting for?

Because behavior will be more normalized and expected.

So here's an example of the limited power of the judges and how it works. You know what's happening with the ACA, right? How a Texas court ruled that the entire thing should be thrown out and is unconstitutional, and another judge in the appeals courts thought that was reasonable but didn't want to fully decide? So they kicked it up to the SCOTUS. 

What did SCOTUS decide to do with this case that literally can decide the fate of the entire US healthcare system? Did they fast-track it? Did they work on it more? Did they even choose to accept it?

Nope. They just are...not going to work on it. Maybe later. We'll see. Maybe after the election. Maybe never. Who knows! 

Now, apply this to, say, Trump deciding anything else. Just choosing to do whatever, like ignore subpoenas or start a war or start investigations into political rivals. In that case, does the court have to do anything? Nope! They can simply just...ignore it. Say that they have other pressing matters, or not get into it, or say that they are not the ones who should decide between congressional and executive power struggles and that there are ways of dealing with those things (impeachment) - basically exactly what they said already. The judicial system doesn't have to ignore the law (though in several cases they already have) - they can simply just...not do their jobs. And that works just fine for Trump's power.

Do that for the next four years to show how impotent the courts are and how he can get away with bigger and bigger things. And then see what happens. Maybe he decides that the 22nd amendment is unconstitutional and finds some judge in Alabama to back him up on it. Maybe he runs as VP with a puppet POTUS. I don't know! But what I do know is that in the 3 years since he's been elected we've already thrown a whole lot of common laws and norms and behaviors out, happily, without any real consequence to anyone of note and poll numbers staying virtually unchanged. 

Another way to put it, Scot - do you think Trump is the kind of person who will ever cede power peacefully?

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

1 minute ago, Kalbear said:

Because behavior will be more normalized and expected.

So here's an example of the limited power of the judges and how it works. You know what's happening with the ACA, right? How a Texas court ruled that the entire thing should be thrown out and is unconstitutional, and another judge in the appeals courts thought that was reasonable but didn't want to fully decide? So they kicked it up to the SCOTUS. 

What did SCOTUS decide to do with this case that literally can decide the fate of the entire US healthcare system? Did they fast-track it? Did they work on it more? Did they even choose to accept it?

Nope. They just are...not going to work on it. Maybe later. We'll see. Maybe after the election. Maybe never. Who knows! 

Now, apply this to, say, Trump deciding anything else. Just choosing to do whatever, like ignore subpoenas or start a war or start investigations into political rivals. In that case, does the court have to do anything? Nope! They can simply just...ignore it. Say that they have other pressing matters, or not get into it, or say that they are not the ones who should decide between congressional and executive power struggles and that there are ways of dealing with those things (impeachment) - basically exactly what they said already. The judicial system doesn't have to ignore the law (though in several cases they already have) - they can simply just...not do their jobs. And that works just fine for Trump's power.

Do that for the next four years to show how impotent the courts are and how he can get away with bigger and bigger things. And then see what happens. Maybe he decides that the 22nd amendment is unconstitutional and finds some judge in Alabama to back him up on it. Maybe he runs as VP with a puppet POTUS. I don't know! But what I do know is that in the 3 years since he's been elected we've already thrown a whole lot of common laws and norms and behaviors out, happily, without any real consequence to anyone of note and poll numbers staying virtually unchanged. 

Another way to put it, Scot - do you think Trump is the kind of person who will ever cede power peacefully?

I don't know.  He's got to know there is nothing that allows the President a third term in office.  To be clear, if he were to seek a third term without an amendment repealing the 22nd Amendment I believe it would be Civil War if he refused to leave office.