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US Politics: I Say a Little Prayer for You!


Fragile Bird

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12 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Lol, I perfectly well know that, duuuuuhhh! :bang:

Funny how sometimes one part of your brain perfectly knows a fact (the War of 1812 is proudly taught in Canadian schools) and another part of your brain leaps in with something you want to share. I recently heard a great interview with the American author of a book about how malaria had an impact on world history and immediately thought of his story about how sick the British troops were.

I think the book is “The Mosquito: A Human History of Our Deadliest Predator”, by Timothy Winegard.

What the Brits were really missing at Yorktown was food, i.e. siege and blockade, which made them particularly vulnerable to all sorts of illnesses, not just malaria. Also it was getting later in the year and mosquitoes weren't so plentiful, though sure, September - October, they were present.  But the Brits just had no supplies once the French navy appeared.  They were also running low on ammo.

But it all turned out Just Great!  Lord Cornwallis went on to run Injah, and institute apartheid there, making it illegal for either Indians or Anglo-Indians to get work in the government or rise higher than clerks, or for Anglo Indians born to marriages from the days of defeat of the mughal and raja kingdoms to be English citizens or even, without a lot fancy legal dancing, inherit from English fathers.

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4 hours ago, Ormond said:

If Trump would actually refuse to leave the White House after losing the election, I would hope that they would be wise enough NOT to try to physically remove him. The power of the Presidency is not determined by who is living at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue in DC. The new president can set up his or her office someplace else, and you can use the Capitol Police or whoever to prevent food deliveries or even cut off electricity and water to the White House. Trump is not someone who is going to "rough it" in such a situation and I'm sure would actually physically leave on his own in a week or so. If you use physical force to bodily remove him, you make him more of a martyr with his base. 

Heh, yeah, I was not taking that part of my response to Kal too seriously - I do like the idea of ousting him from the White House by some other means.  How bout what we did to Noriega?  Instead of blasting Guns 'n Roses, just start playing some Latin music.

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1 hour ago, The Mother of The Others said:

 now you don't consider him capable of humor, being a demon and all, so you take all his statements literally.   That's like having autism.

Your rants would be funny IF many of Trump's "humorous" declarations had not already been followed by actions. Throwing environmental protections out the window, doing everything he can to build the wall, pardoning criminals of various sorts (Arpaio, Gallagher), courting authoritarians, starting a trade war with China, implementing his "Muslim ban," screwing Palestinians over, equating neo-nazis with counter-protesters, having a military parade on the 4th of July... etc, etc, etc.
The list is long and this is a waste of time.
Point is, it's easy to demonstrate who is brainwashed here. Even without getting into the complex matter of impeachment, anyone who is not scared of Trump at this point lacks critical thinking to such a degree that they might as well be a Russian bot.

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1 hour ago, The Mother of The Others said:

.   CNN & co. (the ones brainwashing you?

 

.   <snip>

This particular jest was one ANY of us would make after political opponents just stole two years of your term away with the national focus on this circus sideshow act.  You'd feel like you deserved those years back too, and you'd make the same "statement" trump did.   

 

Re: bolded - the idea that solo is influenced by CNN is the funniest thing you've said yet.

What two years back?  Trump had two years with a majority in both houses.  Then the electorate got pissed and gave the House back to the Dems.  That suggests people wanted some oversight.  And it's not like other business stopped in the meantime.  Why don't you tour the legislative abbatoir that is McConnell's desk?

You know what's a good way to end investigations?  Not do criminal shit.  And cooperate with the investigation instead of dragging it out.

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1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

Actually, what defeated the British was malaria. When Cornwallis surrendered to Washington at Yorktown, it was because more than half his army was deathly ill.

The reason you guys drink coffee instead of tea is not really because of taxes, but because there was a widespread belief that coffee helped cure malaria. And much of the east coast swampland was infested with malaria carrying mosquitoes.

BIRD!, how could you fail so spectacularly? This post must include a swooshing star followed by a rainbow and “The more you know.”

You klutz!

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In fact, both Vindmans have been dismissed from the NSC and escorted out of the White House. This is shamelessly retaliatory conduct. But it also undercuts NSC's knowledge and expertise in Ukraine and Russia matters, with the senior director on Russian and Eastern European affairs having been escorted out last month.

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1 hour ago, larrytheimp said:

When I worked landscaping in San Diego we did a lot of work in gated communities, and our work orders would usually include the gate PIN.  The gates at 3/4s of them were all from the same manufacturer, and no one ever bothered to change the default PIN.  My go-to date night was to use the pool, hot tub, and sauna at these.  

My man :cheers:, but I must say as a country club brat, you haven’t really lived until you’ve played late night drunken golf cart polo on the fairway of a course that hosts one of the LPGA Majors.

Be jealous, BIRD!

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4 hours ago, butterbumps! said:

Agreed- I’m being cautious about that, but I was under the impression that the caucus format already kind of skewed things in favor of Sanders target base of 18-35 because they’d be more likely to have schedules and the energy to go through such a process.   So not generating extra turnout despite that advantage isn’t inspiring hope right now, though I’m not seeing it as a sign he definitively can’t make it happen.  

Not sure how tha skews it in his favor.  Would make it difficult for working parents with young children, people with second or third shift jobs.  I would be interested to see the data on representation by age at the caucuses vs by Iowa population.  

As far as getting a big turnout goes, Buttigieg is polling at less than 5% with black voters, and also with latinx voters.  Dems need a big turnout from minority voters and young voters to win.  Buttigieg is doing much worse nationally with these voters than Biden, Warren, or Sanders.  And while the youth vote has been historically unreliable, let's not confuse causation and correlation here, if the nominee isn't someone they're excited about they're not going to show up.  

 

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1 hour ago, larrytheimp said:

Not sure how tha skews it in his favor.  Would make it difficult for working parents with young children, people with second or third shift jobs.  I would be interested to see the data on representation by age at the caucuses vs by Iowa population.  

As far as getting a big turnout goes, Buttigieg is polling at less than 5% with black voters, and also with latinx voters.  Dems need a big turnout from minority voters and young voters to win.  Buttigieg is doing much worse nationally with these voters than Biden, Warren, or Sanders.  And while the youth vote has been historically unreliable, let's not confuse causation and correlation here, if the nominee isn't someone they're excited about they're not going to show up.  

 

But those factors are exactly why I thought the caucus format skewed in Sanders favor relating to his core demographic of 18-35 year olds.   I agree that the format challenges anyone with inflexible schedules or physical limitations, people which are also part of his base, as well as others.   But the core of his base- they’d be the ones most likely to physically endure the process.   I also thought they’d be generally less likely to have kids that would impact showing up, at least in terms of those on the younger side of that range.  Also, I’m operating under the assumption that especially in the college town areas, full time students would have more flexible time for this process than those with families and multiple jobs.   It doesn’t look like he surged with that demographic.   I’m not saying he can’t activate this usually dormant bloc to come out and vote because of these results.   I’m saying these results aren’t really a data point in favor of this thesis.   

54 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

Alas. Saw this one coming.

Bernie bleeds Black voters

shortly after Sanders touted the endorsement, Michael Harriot of the Root- someone who’d been typically very pro Sanders (and extremely anti Buttigieg)- wrote scathingly about the Rogan issue.  
 

eta.  In fairness Harriots view of the other candidates isn’t exactly better, but it looks like touting the endorsement may have cost Sanders something.   

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6 hours ago, Ormond said:

Interesting point, but I would think backup generators could also be turned off? 

My impression was that in case of major attack on the US that the President would be moved to another site -- are there really "bunker type" facilities at The White House itself? I'm sure the White House has a big pantry, but I've never assumed they stored food for a long term emergency immediately on-site.

Forgive me if my outside impression of how things stand is wrong, but wouldn’t the more pressing concern in this kind of situation be that Trump still has some kind of support, and that this could potentially be pretty widespread? Can you really cut him off from the world if a large portion of the States are willing and eager to carry out his orders?

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1 hour ago, butterbumps! said:

But those factors are exactly why I thought the caucus format skewed in Sanders favor relating to his core demographic of 18-35 year olds.   I agree that the format challenges anyone with inflexible schedules or physical limitations, people which are also part of his base, as well as others.   

Yeah, I am really curious to see what data on this looks like.  Couldn't find anything yet (although could probabaly figure it out from the NYT Iowa data).  

Re: Rogan, it was clearly a mistake and wrong for Sanders to acknowledge the Rogan endorsement (which has since, appare tkh been walked back by Rogan) and then promote it as well.  I saw that Economist poll too - if it's not an outlier Sanders is in trouble.

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1 hour ago, butterbumps! said:

shortly after Sanders touted the endorsement, Michael Harriot of the Root- someone who’d been typically very pro Sanders (and extremely anti Buttigieg)- wrote scathingly about the Rogan issue.  
 

eta.  In fairness Harriots view of the other candidates isn’t exactly better, but it looks like touting the endorsement may have cost Sanders something.   

Probably wasn't the best idea to start courting support from outside the party when you're still at the point when you're supposed to be convincing your own side to support you. I know a lot of LGBT+ people, specifically trans people, who are worried that this is a sign that Bernie and his bros will be willing to throw them under the bus.

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https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/what-stands-out-after-iowa-bernie-sanders-limited-crossover-appeal-n1132336

"White women college graduates" - think suburban women.

Quote

Sanders got just 8 percent support from Iowa caucus-goers 45 and older. And among seniors 65-plus, it was just 4 percent.

While he overperformed among “very liberal” Iowa Dems (43 percent), he underperformed among “somewhat liberals” (19 percent) and moderates (12 percent).

He got just 12 percent support from white women college graduates — arguably the heart of the Dem resistance against Trump.

I've not seen much consideration for what happens with the black vote if Biden completely tanks. People are swinging to Buttigieg and Klobuchar, both of whom struggle here.

 

This is making me wonder if Warren's and Sander's fight against big money is now possibly damaging - at least in this election - because desperation to win is rising and will rise further to the degree Trump escalates.

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"On the other hand, many of the most vocal white supporters who are rankled by actual facts will turn around and vote for Trump if their candidate does not emerge victorious at the conclusion of the primary season."

 

Good article, but the above is mostly bullshit. Dems aren't going to pull a lever for Trump just because Bernie or Biden or Mayo Pete don't get the nom. (Yang followers, on the other hand...). A few might sit out, but I doubt it. 2020 is going to have record turnout, maybe on par with 2008.

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