Are there any blackfyres alive

[Mrstrategy]

Do you believe that there are still blackfyres alive either in essos or in westeros or the family died with Maelys blackfyre?

[frenin]

We were never told the Blackfyre's were all dead. The Blackfyre male line  is.

[Neddy's Girl]

Having recently revisted A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms, and listened to The World of Ice and Fire, I'm pretty convinced that there must be, given how significant the Blackfyre plot is to the history.

I used to believe Aegon VI was genuine but now I'm not sure.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Yes, but they are descended from bastards and women. Here's one. This one might be a descendant of Daemon as well. 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

I think there is one, but it's Daario, not Young Griff.

[Lord Varys]

There might be Blackfyre women around (old crones now, though) and male descendants through the female lines, but the men are dead (aside from potential bastard stock which wouldn't be Blackfyres - just as the male descendants of female Blackfyres aren't Blackfyres).

The fact that we don't have any men in the Golden Company who proudly reference their Blackfyre or Bittersteel ancestry - which they would do, if some of them were around - and instead give themselves silly names of Westerosi nobility extinct for centuries or millennia makes it very unlikely that there are any in the Golden Company.

[Alyn Oakenfist]

There are probably 3 Blackfyre's that we know of in the current story.

Varys - it explains why the maege was interested in him

FAegon - You all know the theory by this point

Saerra - Probably FAegon's mom and a Blackfyre

Though, to be fair, these 3 could just as well be Brightflames. However, all 3 are probably descended from one or more bastard lines of house Targaryen.

[The Young Maester]

2 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

There are probably 3 Blackfyre's that we know of in the current story.

Varys - it explains why the maege was interested in him

FAegon - You all know the theory by this point

Saerra - Probably FAegon's mom and a Blackfyre

Though, to be fair, these 3 could just as well be Brightflames. However, all 3 are probably descended from one or more bastard lines of house Targaryen.

My own theory is that Varys was Saerras brother. And his main goal is to put his nephew on the throne for the glory of house Blackfyre. 
But I might be wrong. Its quite a wild theory.

[Megorova]

I think that there are several Blackfyres alive: Varys, (Illyrio's wife, Serra, possibly was Varys' sister or half-sister), Barristan Selmy, fAegon, Pretty Meris, Brienne, Hodor, maybe also the Mountain and the Hound (thru their mother).

 

I think that Duncan the Tall was bastard of Daemon I Blackfyre and princess Daenerys Targaryen (wife of Maron Martell), and Duncan was the real reason for the First Blackfyre Rebellion. Something like Daemon wanted his King-brother to legitimize his child, but Daeron refused. Furthermore, when he found out that Daemon seduced Daenerys, he ordered his guards to seize Daemon, because he was afraid that if people will find out about what happened, it may cause Dorne's separation from 7K. And because Daeron's wife was Dornish, and the Crown-prince was half-Martell, it would have caused a rift in their family and a civil war in 7K. It's a possibility that Duncan was conceived during Tournament at King's Landing, held in honor of King Daeron's 40's birthday (he was born in 153, that Tournament was held in 193). In a melee of that Tournament ser Arlan of Pennytree defeated the Bastard of Harrenhal. I think that this Bastard was secret son of Aegon IV and Aegon's daughter-mistress, Jeyne Lothston, and that this Bastard later became founder of House Whent, and that he was ancestor of Catelyn Tully and Petyr Baelysh (thru LF's great grandfather, who was a sellsword from Braavos, possibly son of the Bastard of Harrenhal and one of Bellegere Otherys' daughters or granddaughters). I think that the piece of chipped garnet, that Duncan "inherited" from ser Arlan, is a piece of stone from Blackfyre sword, and that stone is how Duncan will eventually find out that he is son of Daemon Blackfyre.

In one of Bran's visions he saw a girl that was kissing with a knight as tall as Hodor. I think that that girl was Old Nan, and the knight was Duncan the Tall. My guess is that Pretty Meris and the mother of the Hound and the Mountain are Old Nan's and Duncan's granddaughters. Pretty Meris is possibly Brienne's mother, thus Brienne is Hodor's and the Hound's second cousin.

It's likely that when Aenys Blackfyre in 233 AC came to 7K, that he brought his family with him, though prior going to King's Landing, he left them somewhere in secret place with Blackfyre loyalists (with House Swann). I think that Barristan's mother was Aenys' daughter, thus Barristan is half-Blackfyre.

I think that septa Lemore is Lady Jeyne Swann, and that she and Barristan are fAegon's parents, and that they conceived him in 281 at Kingswood, on the same night when real Aegon was conceived at King's Landing, and a comet was passing above that area. Because of that comet Prince Rhaegar believed that his son is the Prince that was Promised, and because of that same comet Varys and Illyrio think that it is fAegon who is the Promised Prince.

I think that the Ghost of Hight Heart is Rohanne Webber-Lannister, and that Jenny of Oldstones, wife of Duncan Targaryen, was Rohanne's daughter. Maybe Jenny's father was Gerold Lannister, or maybe her father was Duncan the Tall. I think that Jenny didn't died during burning of Summerhall, instead she was kidnapped by Blackfyres (they kidnapped her because of her woodswitch+dragonseed blood). If at the time of her kidnapping she was pregnant, then could be that her and Duncan Targaryen's child is Melisandre (possibly born in 259). Apparently Jenny was kidnapped while Daemon IV Blackfyre was still alive, so could be that Serra is Daemon's child, while Varys' father is Maelys the Monstrous (who took Jenny as his trophy-wife after killing his cousin Daemon). Or maybe both Serra and Varys are Daemon's children, or maybe both of them are Maelys' children. Either way it seems likely that both Varys and Serra were carriers of Blackfyre genes. If Melisandre is Jenny's daughter, and Jenny is Duncan the Tall's daughter, and if Duncan is son of Daemon I Blackfyre, then Melisandre is also a carrier of Blackfyre genes (and her height she "inherited" from her grandfather, Duncan the Tall, and her red hair from her grandmother, the Red Widow Rohanne Webber).

Thus, there are 10 people who could be carriers of Blackfyre genes:

Varys, [Serra], Melisandre, Barristan, fAegon, Pretty Meris, Brienne, Hodor, the Hound, [the Mountain].

[Lord Varys]

9 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Saerra - Probably FAegon's mom and a Blackfyre

That is not very likely. Illyrio would have fucked many whores with Valyrian features to get a son to pass as Prince Aegon. The chances that he just got a boy with the right looks with a woman who was a Targaryen/Blackfyre descendant are very low. They would have used a dozen or more whores to produce children and they would have picked the child which resembled Aegon the most. Some would have been girls, some boys, and many wouldn't have had any Valyrian features at all.

 

[Alyn Oakenfist]

10 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That is not very likely. Illyrio would have fucked many whores with Valyrian features to get a son to pass as Prince Aegon. The chances that he just got a boy with the right looks with a woman who was a Targaryen/Blackfyre descendant are very low. They would have used a dozen or more whores to produce children and they would have picked the child which resembled Aegon the most. Some would have been girls, some boys, and many wouldn't have had any Valyrian features at all.

This theory is absolutely horrifying and I love it. The one problem with the idea that FAegon is Illyrio's son by some random Lyseni whore, is that it seems kinda underwhelming and far more importantly doesn't explain why the Golden Company supports FAegon.

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

This theory is absolutely horrifying and I love it. The one problem with the idea that FAegon is Illyrio's son by some random Lyseni whore, is that it seems kinda underwhelming and far more importantly doesn't explain why the Golden Company supports FAegon.

This would then mean that Illyrio and/or only Varys have Blackfyre connections. Serra is just a baby machine, and Illyrio only married her to ensure his son, Aegon, could inherit his Pentoshi estates if something went wrong/the plan would not be implemented. Illyrio could have died before Aegon was old enough, for instance.

[Alyn Oakenfist]

16 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

This would then mean that Illyrio and/or only Varys have Blackfyre connections. Serra is just a baby machine, and Illyrio only married her to ensure his son, Aegon, could inherit his Pentoshi estates if something went wrong/the plan would not be implemented. Illyrio could have died before Aegon was old enough, for instance.

Well, if we're going down this rabbit hole, it would pose the problem of Varys's blood. Now Varys probably has some royal blood in him given the wizarding obsession with ,,King's Blood" in this world. However it's extremely unlikely that Illyrio is a Blackfyre given that A he doesn't have the look, B he doesn't come from anywhere in the disputed lands, which is the place where the Blackfyres went when they weren't invading Westeros, and C he doesn't seem to have had any contact with the presumed other Blackfyre until when they were both grown men. Maybe Illyrio is a Brightflame, but that doesn't explain the Golden Company's support. So we reach the same point, where it does seem that Saerra did have something special about her, besides her Valyrian look.

This theory does have one thing going for it though, and that is the fact that it explains FAegon's similar age to the real Aegon, cause as soon as he was born, Illyrio and Varys set to work creating an Aegon of their own in this theory.

[Lord Varys]

18 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Well, if we're going down this rabbit hole, it would pose the problem of Varys's blood. Now Varys probably has some royal blood in him given the wizarding obsession with ,,King's Blood" in this world. However it's extremely unlikely that Illyrio is a Blackfyre given that A he doesn't have the look, B he doesn't come from anywhere in the disputed lands, which is the place where the Blackfyres went when they weren't invading Westeros, and C he doesn't seem to have had any contact with the presumed other Blackfyre until when they were both grown men. Maybe Illyrio is a Brightflame, but that doesn't explain the Golden Company's support. So we reach the same point, where it does seem that Saerra did have something special about her, besides her Valyrian look.

Actually, my guess is that Illyrio is indeed the guy with the Blackfyre connections. There wouldn't be a contract if he didn't care about that. And the chance that a former whore cared more about making her son a king under a false name rather than, you know, be with him as his mother during the time they had together is a huge stretch to me - even if she had a Blackfyre background. Once she was dead Illyrio would have even less reason to continue the Aegon plan. He could be with his son and set him up as the shadow ruler of Pentos or another Free City.

Illyrio doesn't have to have Valyrian looks to be descended from them. We don't even know if all the Blackfyres had Valyrian looks (if they didn't continue the incest thing in exile some of them might have looked 'common'). But he actually could have silver-gold hair - he uses some sort of dye to have this yellow hair he has.

Younger spare Blackfyre daughters could have eventually married some Pentoshi or men from other Free Cities who eventually ended in that Free City. With Elissa's dragon eggs it is not unlikely that Illyrio might have Braavosi roots - the Sealord who bought the eggs from Elissa may have been named ... Mopatis. We know that wealth is not necessarily stable in Braavos. Families rise and fall, even Sealord families (the betrothed of Laena Velaryon) and the key holders. One of the daughters or granddaughters of Illyrio Mopatis could have been his grandmother or great-grandmother without anybody realizing this, especially if there were multiple female generations between Daemon Blackfyre and Illyrio Mopatis.

I very much liked my idea that Illyrio could be a descended from a daughter of Bittersteel and Calla Blackfyre, but it seems George doubts that Bittersteel had any issue. But there is room for many Blackfyre girls considering the unknown number of daughters Daemon I had (at least two) and the many children the four of his sons who might have fathered issue might have.

In any case, though it is Illyrio who is directing the Golden Company. He manages them. That indicates he has the contacts.

It could also be Varys, of course. In fact, it might be Aegon is a complete fake and Varys is the last Blackfyre descendant and a dynastic dead end.

18 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

This theory does have one thing going for it though, and that is the fact that it explains FAegon's similar age to the real Aegon, cause as soon as he was born, Illyrio and Varys set to work creating an Aegon of their own in this theory.

Tyrion thinking Aegon is 15-16 rather than 18 is a hint that Illyrio may have only fathered Aegon after the Sack. That means they would have gone by my approach if they weren't stupid (and George not wanting to make their grand plan being based on the happy coincidence that Illyrio's love child with his beloved whore wife looked like a golden prince).

[Lord Varys]

Oh, and there is this curious line of Illyrio's that he still doesn't know why Varys teamed up with him - this has to be a lie, I think, and I expect that the truth behind this question is at the heart of their partnership. This could be Varys telling Illyrio who he was and from whom he was descended - something Illyrio may not have known. He was a poor bravo when they teamed up, meaning he could have grown up alone on the streets. In fact, my idea is that he may have been tricked out of his inheritance by some step-kin or something like that.

Varys himself also has to have some connection - either Blackfyre thing or a Targaryen thing through a bastard line. Else, I think, his interest in Westeros makes little sense. Making himself rich by accepting a position at court makes sense to a point (Rego Draz did the same thing) but cooking up the kind of decade-spanning scheme he has going there doesn't make much sense if he doesn't feel personally responsible for the Westerosi people.

[Buried Treasure]

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There might be Blackfyre women around (old crones now, though) and male descendants through the female lines, but the men are dead (aside from potential bastard stock which wouldn't be Blackfyres - just as the male descendants of female Blackfyres aren't Blackfyres).

The fact that we don't have any men in the Golden Company who proudly reference their Blackfyre or Bittersteel ancestry - which they would do, if some of them were around - and instead give themselves silly names of Westerosi nobility extinct for centuries or millennia makes it very unlikely that there are any in the Golden Company.

This. The Golden Company were the liegemen of the Blackfyres. We can reasonably inter there are no more people that are recognisably Blackfyres, because the GC know of no Blackfyres.

 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

That is not very likely. Illyrio would have fucked many whores with Valyrian features to get a son to pass as Prince Aegon. The chances that he just got a boy with the right looks with a woman who was a Targaryen/Blackfyre descendant are very low. They would have used a dozen or more whores to produce children and they would have picked the child which resembled Aegon the most. Some would have been girls, some boys, and many wouldn't have had any Valyrian features at all.

 

Illyrio would have also have to have started fucking those slaves some 2 years before he knew he would need a fake Aegon, to get an imposter of the right age.  Easier to think he got a child of the right features and age by purchasing a mother and toddler pair (Serra and Faegon) that already had the correct features.

Otherwise, 5 years after the Rebellion when they handed to JonCon a child they wanted him to take for 6 year old Aegon, there would have been a high risk that he would have noticed that the child he was getting was only 4.

[Lord Varys]

27 minutes ago, Buried Treasure said:

This. The Golden Company were the liegemen of the Blackfyres. We can reasonably inter there are no more people that are recognisably Blackfyres, because the GC know of no Blackfyres.

In fact, if there were Blackfyre descendants in the Golden Company around they would like run the show. A Blackfyre descendant would be captain-general and (possibly) even a pretender to the Iron Throne.

27 minutes ago, Buried Treasure said:

Illyrio would have also have to have started fucking those slaves some 2 years before he knew he would need a fake Aegon, to get an imposter of the right age.  Easier to think he got a child of the right features and age by purchasing a mother and toddler pair (Serra and Faegon) that already had the correct features.

Otherwise, 5 years after the Rebellion when they handed to JonCon a child they wanted him to take for 6 year old Aegon, there would have been a high risk that he would have noticed that the child he was getting was only 4.

Actually, the hints are that they may have done just that. That's one possible point of Tyrion thinking Aegon is 15-16 rather than 18.

However, it is indeed the case that Jon Connington would have *never* mistaken a 3-4-year-old boy for 6-year-old Aegon. You cannot be as stupid as that. This is one of the main arguments why Aegon might be real after all, because Connington thinks he is the real deal and it is very implausible that he would have been fooled.

There is still a small chance that he *made believe* when he was shown the boy for the first boy because this way he could apologize to Rhaegar's shadow and get his revenge.

On the other hand, Tyrion also thinks Jon is about 12 years old in AGoT when he is 14, so Tyrion isn't exactly the kind of character who accurately judges the age of children and youths. His judgment in that category is not exactly accurate.

I also like the idea of Aegon being a total nobody with no connection to any Targaryens or Blackfyres. If this were the case, though, then they would have likely indeed purchased a child that was matching Aegon's age more or less exactly.

[Megorova]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

With Elissa's dragon eggs it is not unlikely that Illyrio might have Braavosi roots - the Sealord who bought the eggs from Elissa may have been named ... Mopatis. We know that wealth is not necessarily stable in Braavos. Families rise and fall, even Sealord families (the betrothed of Laena Velaryon) and the key holders. One of the daughters or granddaughters of Illyrio Mopatis could have been his grandmother or great-grandmother without anybody realizing this, especially if there were multiple female generations between Daemon Blackfyre and Illyrio Mopatis.

From that Sealord, who bought three dragon eggs, they passed to the Sealord who gave them as a reward to Penny, Oppo and Hop-Bean. Illyrio got those eggs from mummer-dwarfs, or he got them from Varys, who got them from those mummer-dwarfs. Could be that Hop-Bean and Varys originally belonged to the same troupe, so that's how they knew each other, and that's why Varys or Illyrio used Hop-Bean and his children to get those eggs from the Sealord, who was an eccentric man and refused to sell them, and instead gave them away to those dwarfs for enterteining him. Why I think that this guy is eccentric, and doing something like giving away priceless items for free is the kind of thing that he did, is because this same guy gave the title of the First Sword of Braavos to Syrio Forel, just because Syrio figured out his riddle about common cat.

[Megorova]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Tyrion thinking Aegon is 15-16 rather than 18 is a hint that Illyrio may have only fathered Aegon after the Sack. That means they would have gone by my approach if they weren't stupid (and George not wanting to make their grand plan being based on the happy coincidence that Illyrio's love child with his beloved whore wife looked like a golden prince).

Varys and Illyrio introduced fAegon to Jon Connington in 288, five years after the Rebellion. In 300 AC it has been 12 years since then, thus fAegon left Illyrio's mansion in 288. Those clothes, that Illyrio passed to JonCon, belonged to fAegon, prior he was taken by Jon. If fAegon is 15-16 in 300, then he was 3-4 in 288. If he is 17-18 in 300, then he was 5-6 in 288. If he is the real Aegon, or was born at about the same time as the real Aegon, then in 288 his age was between 6 and 7. Average height of 3-4 year-old boys is 40-43 inches, of 5-6 years-old is 46-49 inches, 7yo is 51 inches. This is from where this data is:

https://www.cdc.gov/growthcharts/data/set1clinical/cj41l021.pdf

It seems farfetched if septa Lemore was remaking for Tyrion toddler's clothes. It's more likely for those clothes to be close to Tyrion's parameters, if they belonged to a 6-7 years old boy. So it's more likely that fAegon in 288 was 6-7, not that he was 3-4, thus now he is, most likely, 17-18, not 15-16.

[Buried Treasure]

30 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Actually, the hints are that they may have done just that. That's one possible point of Tyrion thinking Aegon is 15-16 rather than 18.

...

On the other hand, Tyrion also thinks Jon is about 12 years old in AGoT when he is 14, so Tyrion isn't exactly the kind of character who accurately judges the age of children and youths. His judgment in that category is not exactly accurate.

I also like the idea of Aegon being a total nobody with no connection to any Targaryens or Blackfyres. If this were the case, though, then they would have likely indeed purchased a child that was matching Aegon's age more or less exactly.

I go with the in-story explanation of Tyrion being bad at guessing ages. But I also think it is George telling us that this boy is young because he is still a child of summer, in contrast to his chronologically younger peers who have  had to mature more quickly over the course of the novels.

I see the question of Aegon's identity coming down to how the plot came together. Did V & I get lucky because they had a spare secret Blackfyre who just so happened to have the right age, gender and looks to pass as a Targ child who chanced to die in somewhat questionable circumstances? Or were they cunning plotters who identified a situation that they could exploit to create a pretender they could keep in pocket as one of their many long term schemes? The former seems to me to rely too much on convenient coincidence.