DMC Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Mexal said: I’m sure there is an element of that but months of Biden corruption talk in every newspaper and on every news show could not have helped. Every conversation about Biden was negative. Could be, but looking at the empirics there's nothing to support that notion. His favorability never really dropped off too much, as far as I'm aware. And if you look at his trendline nationally - yes, he dropped around the time the Ukraine news broke, but he inched back up, and down, at least a couple more go-rounds since then. Only real drop off has been very recently with Sanders taking over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 minute ago, The Anti-Targ said: IMO Sanders as the nominee is a guarantee that the election won't be close. The thing I don't know is who would win big. It will be close, because the US is so polarised. We're talking a situation where everyone votes for their own party, because they think the opposition candidate is worse than Hitler. That said, Trump vs Sanders will be an entertaining election, if nothing else. With a combined age of over 150 years, and the sort of positions US politics hasn't heard from in a long, long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Well, shit. i did not expect this. I guess I'm a Sanders person, now. You can call me a Bernie Bro if you want, I can't really refute the charge at this point. I was a Harris person though, and then a Warren person. It appears she was taken out, however. I would not be that unhappy with Mayor Pete winning. It would be a large amount of progress.I just don't know what he'd do on economic matters is the problem. I guess I will go donate to the Sanders campaign. Like Picard, I have been assimilated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, The Marquis de Leech said: It will be close, because the US is so polarised. We're talking a situation where everyone votes for their own party, because they think the opposition candidate is worse than Hitler. That said, Trump vs Sanders will be an entertaining election, if nothing else. With a combined age of over 150 years, and the sort of positions US politics hasn't heard from in a long, long time. I think either some Clinton states will flip out about Soshulism taking over the USA and go Trump, or Sanders will hold all Clinton states plus the rust belt states and some others Clinton lost will see Sanders as the new working class hero and flip for him. A friend of mine who is one of those centrist urban Democrats directly said to me that while he can't stand Trump he'd seriously consider voting Republican if Warren or Sanders become the nominee. Because he sees a socialist take over as worse than 4 more years of Trump. And if there's one thing Republicans seem to be good at its scaring the bejeezus out of the country over anything that can be linked to communism, and in most people's minds communism = socialism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 2 hours ago, Week said: Doneness as determined by a clusterfuck of a state (even before this year's caucus) and the most garbage state in the north east. We deserve what we get after this. Well, I'll be voting for Klobuchar or Sanders in MA, I guess. I will tell NONE of the Sanders supporters that I can barely stand as friends that I'll vote for Sanders (in the primary at least). Yeah, it's great how 2 states get to deprive us of a Warren Presidency. Kind of reminds me how a bunch of white senior citizens get to decide nearly every important factor in our lives and society. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Triskele said: If by chance Warren is really not in the race much longer it's going to be interesting to revisit that whole thing about how a lot of people are surprised by how the voting 2nd choices really shake out and maybe her dropping out won't benefit Sanders as much as one might think? If Warren supporters don't go to Sanders could they go to Klobuchar? So Sanders based on policy similarity and Klobucher because of...? I don't know where Klobucher sits on policy, so unsure why Warren voters would line up more with Klobucher. Warren with almost 10% should probably stick around until Super Tuesday at least. Really the only people who should drop out are those who couldn't get above 5%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said: I think either some Clinton states will flip out about Soshulism taking over the USA and go Trump, or Sanders will hold all Clinton states plus the rust belt states and some others Clinton lost will see Sanders as the new working class hero and flip for him. A friend of mine who is one of those centrist urban Democrats directly said to me that while he can't stand Trump he'd seriously consider voting Republican if Warren or Sanders become the nominee. Because he sees a socialist take over as worse than 4 more years of Trump. And if there's one thing Republicans seem to be good at its scaring the bejeezus out of the country over anything that can be linked to communism, and in most people's minds communism = socialism The sort of places that voted for Clinton but loathe Bernie are the sorts of places where Trump is almost scientifically-designed to be a terrible fit for. The biggest danger with Bernie is that some centrist muppet decides to run Third Party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, Triskele said: If Warren supporters don't go to Sanders could they go to Klobuchar? My prior is Sanders is not concerned with anyone gaining a net advantage over him from Warren supporters. Will he gain as much as one may think intuitively based on ideology? Probably not. But if/when she drops out, it's very likely that will be a win for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said: So Sanders based on policy similarity and Klobucher because of...? I don't know where Klobucher sits on policy, so unsure why Warren voters would line up more with Klobucher. Warren with almost 10% should probably stick around until Super Tuesday at least. Really the only people who should drop out are those who couldn't get above 5%. Klobuchar is seen as a moderate, though not of the Clintonian variety. She's one of those extremely unusual Democrats who can get the support of rural Republicans in her own state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Its remarkable to me that sanders and Buttigieg will end up with the same delegate count and Buttigieg will be leading after two states. That's incredible. I think you'll find most of warren people who would have gone to sanders will have already defected. The 10% or so is probably pretty evenly mixed - a lot of her support went to Klobuchar in NH, as an example. And she appeals to a lot of the better educated white people that Buttigieg does. 538 mentioned that not only is Sanders doing worse than he did in 2016, hes doing worse in the places he was strongest. Its becoming clear Sanders voting was partially a proxy on hatred of clinton, and now that there are other choices Sanders is losing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Kalbear said: 538 mentioned that not only is Sanders doing worse than he did in 2016, hes doing worse in the places he was strongest. Its becoming clear Sanders voting was partially a proxy on hatred of clinton, and now that there are other choices Sanders is losing out. That's not exactly news. If Sanders wins in Nevada, and manages to make a fairly close showing in South Carolina, Bloomberg's entry into the race on Super Tuesday will most likely assure that Sanders wins the nomination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, Kalbear said: Its becoming clear Sanders voting was partially a proxy on hatred of clinton, and now that there are other choices Sanders is losing out. I think this has always been clear. Like, in 2015, it was obvious Sanders' vote was inflated by anti-Clinton vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 I'm just amazed at how terribly Biden has done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Arryn Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Thought: Donald Glover, future politician? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, Kalbear said: Its remarkable to me that sanders and Buttigieg will end up with the same delegate count and Buttigieg will be leading after two states. That's incredible. I think you'll find most of warren people who would have gone to sanders will have already defected. The 10% or so is probably pretty evenly mixed - a lot of her support went to Klobuchar in NH, as an example. And she appeals to a lot of the better educated white people that Buttigieg does. 538 mentioned that not only is Sanders doing worse than he did in 2016, hes doing worse in the places he was strongest. Its becoming clear Sanders voting was partially a proxy on hatred of clinton, and now that there are other choices Sanders is losing out. I still think he wins the nomination. I think the media is underplaying that he’s still getting the most raw votes and probably will continue in Nevada. He will be only one left in the progressive lane at a time when there will be three candidates in the moderate lane splitting votes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 minute ago, The Marquis de Leech said: I'm just amazed at how terribly Biden has done. I know that @DMC pointed out that the Ukraine scandal didn't appear to have an effect on Biden's favorability ratings, but I do wonder if it perhaps affected their perception of his chances of being elected since Trump will hammer Biden on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, Mexal said: I still think he wins the nomination. I think the media is underplaying that he’s still getting the most raw votes and probably will continue in Nevada. He will be only one left in the progressive lane at a time when there will be three candidates in the moderate lane splitting votes. Also, we are voting in very conservative states in the early states. It bends everything in a moderate direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Also also, despite all the talk of dems being motivated and excited we aren't seeing that in turnout. Iowa was barely over 2016, and NH looks to be even lower than 2016. To me that is a generally bad sign and a very bad sign for the notion of getting out the youth vote in support of anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 It is a bad sign, but a small sample. More importantly, the sample I'm not interested in. White people - otherwise known as Iowa and New Hampshire - will turnout for the general. It's the minority metrics you wanna look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, Kalbear said: Also also, despite all the talk of dems being motivated and excited we aren't seeing that in turnout. Iowa was barely over 2016, and NH looks to be even lower than 2016. To me that is a generally bad sign and a very bad sign for the notion of getting out the youth vote in support of anyone. Iowa sure, but this is wrong about NH. So far, with 82% results in, Dem primary has casted 249.5k votes. Raw vote total for 2016 was 254k. It won’t be lower than 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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