OnionAhaiReborn Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 6 hours ago, Mexal said: I still think he wins the nomination. I think the media is underplaying that he’s still getting the most raw votes and probably will continue in Nevada. He will be only one left in the progressive lane at a time when there will be three candidates in the moderate lane splitting votes. It's unclear how much vote splitting will matter under Democratic primary rules, because of proportional allocation of delegates above the 15% threshold. If it keeps most of the "moderates" under 15% percent across a bunch of states while Sanders consistently gets 25-30%, that matters a lot. This is somewhat plausible scenario with the two least nationally-viable moderates performing well in the first two states and giving them a justification to carry on- they could end up just being a 5-10% each drag on Biden/Bloomberg. But if it turns into a few moderates getting 15-20% consistently it matters a lot less. If the split is more along the lines of the latter case the question becomes what kind of plurality does Sanders go into the convention with and how much appetite there is for denying the plurality winner the nomination, with the obvious risk of fracturing the party that goes along with it. Obviously the closer his plurality is to a majority the less likely it is that he can be denied. The other possibility is that if Sanders performs well in Nevada and South Carolina he will just be treated like past front runners and start to consolidate support across the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darryk Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 7 hours ago, Kalbear said: Also also, despite all the talk of dems being motivated and excited we aren't seeing that in turnout. Iowa was barely over 2016, and NH looks to be even lower than 2016. To me that is a generally bad sign and a very bad sign for the notion of getting out the youth vote in support of anyone. Hopefully that's just because people have decided they're gonna vote for the Democratic candidate no matter who it is, but don't particularly care who the candidate is, meaning they won't bother turning out for the primaries but will for the general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 6 hours ago, DMC said: Well, duh. But dude, let's keep that on the DL, the white wizard or whatever might get mad at us. What is 88? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 16 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: What is 88? It's code for Heil Hitler, given that H is the eighth letter in the alphabet. The UK once had a Nazi organisation called Column 88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stego Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 17 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: What is 88? Heil Hitler. 8th letter of the alphabet is H. It's not quite cryptography. Had a client once that had Nazi tattoos all over her body (including 88). They were put there by her ex-boyfriend/abuser. She was not white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liffguard Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1488 or 14/88 is also common. 14 in this case referring to the "fourteen words." Spoiler: Nazi shit Spoiler "We must secure the existence of our people and a future for white children." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Wow. I’m kinda glad I didn’t know that before now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 I would caution against extrapolating these early states too much in terms of enthusiasm and vote counts. All criticisms against Sanders can be applied to the other candidates as well (maybe with different emphasis) Biden has never won a primary/caucus in his three attempts. What does that say about his electability chances? Its all a guessing game right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stego Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: I would caution against extrapolating these early states too much in terms of enthusiasm and vote counts. All criticisms against Sanders can be applied to the other candidates as well (maybe with different emphasis) Biden has never won a primary/caucus in his three attempts. What does that say about his electability chances? Its all a guessing game right now. There's no guessing game. There's only one viable candidate for the Democrats to beat Trump. Too bad the neocons at the DNC hate him more than Republicans do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 26 minutes ago, Liffguard said: 1488 or 14/88 is also common. 14 in this case referring to the "fourteen words." A certain Christchurch insulation company got in trouble last year. One reason was them charging $14.88 per metre: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/christchurch-shooting/111386125/nazithemed-company-beneficial-insulation-reported-to-police-after-christchurch-shootings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maarsen Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: Wow. I’m kinda glad I didn’t know that before now. Yeah, there are some things one cannot unremember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darzin Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Stego said: There's no guessing game. There's only one viable candidate for the Democrats to beat Trump. Too bad the neocons at the DNC hate him more than Republicans do. The DNC are scared that he will turn the election from a referendum on Donald Trump, into a referendum on socialism vs capitalism which they feel will lose the election and if not harm down ballot races. I am scared of that as well I mean in this very thread we have moderates who hate Trump but talk about having difficulty supporting Sanders. I think Warren would have been the stronger progressive option since she had very similar policies but also was willing to say she was a capitalist and willing to support capitalism. Also the DNC can't actually do anything it's up to Democratic voters to decide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 12 hours ago, Mexal said: And I think it's fairly safe to say that the very long, very consistent smear attack on the Bidens has done its job. I know he had his issues but it was very much a Hillary's email thing with him as well. Trump's weird Biden obsession always struck me as odd because I didn't think he would be the democratic nominee. While his polling throughout 2019 was strong, his debates were poor, and his overall campaign seemed unfocused and listless. More and more it looks like Biden was the #1 choice for people who have paid no attention to the race. That's good enough for a while, because most democratic voters only start paying attention when voting is about to start. But once that happened, Biden fell apart. While Trumps hit job doesn't HELP, I'm really skeptical that it made much of a difference. I haven't met a single Democrat who even thinks Joe did something wrong in Ukraine, let alone illegal. Hunter Biden showed bad judgement OMG!! In some ways I think Biden benefitted from being Trump enemy #1, becuase it made him seem more formidable. Instead, the simpler story makes a lot more sense: Biden was a weak candidate who ran a poor campaign. Once people got a good look at him, it became obvious why he was a non-factor the other two times he ran. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 On Bloomberg, the more I've heard about him, the less I like his candidacy, and I didn't like it much to begin with. It is hard to imagine he'll be a factor once people have more time to form an impression of him beyond just his omnipresent ad campaign. However, I do think it is interesting the parallels between the 2016 Republican primary and the 2020 Democratic primary, where there is a single candidate with a strong base of support, but a lot of skeptical voters who are splitting their vote amongst many competitors. The result is that the candidates have a strong incentive not to drop out, because they know that if THEY were in a 1v1 with Trump or Sanders, they'd have a few real chance. Really if it weren't for the Sanders factor and the complete Iowa cockup, Klobuchar should have dropped out after finishing 5th in Iowa. Because even with her strong finish in Iowa New Hampshire, there's still the question of where she can go from here. Any tiny tiny chance she has is basically that everyone else falls apart and she consolidates the anti-Sanders vote. But of course, the Warren, Biden and Bloomberg campaigns are saying the same thing, which is why all of them are staying in the race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 I see Trump is now saying (tweeting?) that the army is considering taking action against Vindman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 23 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said: I see Trump is now saying (tweeting?) that the army is considering taking action against Vindman. I'd be shocked if Trump were not putting pressure for them to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gertrude Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 I swear, every time I think "this, THIS is the breaking point. Rs can't deny THIS, right?" I go on a right wing site and see how it's being spun and the fan boys cheering it and I get depressed all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maarsen Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 I have been following this primary season with a lot of interest. As a Canadian, i have no say, but I do have thoughts. First of all, the number of candidates at the beginning of the race made me quite interested. Candidates for office are not just random people deciding to run but usually have an organization and many connections they can tap to ascertain the feasibility of their run. If you have a large number of candidates then they must all have figured out that any halfway decent choice for the voters will trump Trump. Secondly, I have a pretty good sense of patterns, and use it to solve intractable problems. One pattern I have noticed, thanks to John Brunner in The Shockwave Rider, is the Delphic oracle model of prediction. Given a big enough sample of people and ask them to predict something of which they have little or no knowledge, the consensus tends to be reasonably accurate. If the consensus of the Democrat voters coalesces around Sanders, or Klobuchar, or Buttigeig, then I would say that if Trump can be beaten, the Dems have chosen the person most suited to doing that. I don't have stats on this but I have spent years observing elections here in Canada and in the US. DMC can probably find more info on the effect of a crowded field and what it means for elections, but in the end one should trust the voice of the people. I just hope that the Democrat National Committee does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 This thread amused me - it's a sanders supporter now just realizing that antagonizing other candidates and their supporters might not in fact be the best strategy. And it is of course filled with people doing exactly that. (Not meant to be representative of anything other than humor) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
karaddin Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 hour ago, maarsen said: Yeah, there are some things one cannot unremember. I always feel super comfortable when the guy in my neighbourhood that looks like a gay bear but has "VIII" tattooed behind each of his ears is around. @Gertrude despite the constant reinforcement it really is hard to accept that literally everything they claim as their values are just propaganda bullshit. The only things they actually care about are maintaining power, being open assholes to "the other team", and oppression of minorities and women. Everything else is just tactical which is why engaging in debate with them is pointless unless you're convincing the audience. Which you normally aren't if you fall into that trap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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