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US Politics - Primary Numbers


Mlle. Zabzie

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12 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

The Bloomberg angle is pretty straightforward. He’ll eat the middle and he’s the lesser of two evils for the left. If the middle and left can accept him, he’ll walk over Trump. That might be a big if though.

If voters chose logically, sure.  But who is excited about Bloomberg?  Anybody?  Because there's a huge portion of the country that is excited about Trump. 

Just being the lesser of two evils is not enough for Democrats.   I think Bloomberg would be fairly easy for Trump to vilify and defeat. 

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3 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:
Quote

"To have public statements and tweets made about the department, about people in the department, our men and women here, about cases pending in the department and about judges before whom we have cases, make it impossible for me to do my job," Barr said

What's the sound I hear?  Why it's the world's smallest violin! 

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1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

If voters chose logically, sure.  But who is excited about Bloomberg?  Anybody? 

As I discovered this weekend, my dad. He thinks Bloomberg is smarter than the candidates, would hire better people than the other candidates, and is more pragmatic than the other candidates. He thinks Bloomberg was a good NYC mayor and that he'd be a steady, normalizing force in the White House. No idea if he is representative of the aging, liberal, Jewish New Yorker vote, but there you go.

And for reference, he thinks Sanders has "some great ideas" but would "get killed" in an election against Trump.

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1 minute ago, Fez said:

As I discovered this weekend, my dad. He thinks Bloomberg is smarter than the candidates, would hire better people than the other candidates, and is more pragmatic than the other candidates. He thinks Bloomberg was a good NYC mayor and that he'd be a steady, normalizing force in the White House. No idea if he is representative of the aging, liberal, Jewish New Yorker vote, but there you go.

And for reference, he thinks Sanders has "some great ideas" but would "get killed" in an election against Trump.

I'm not sure that the tiny subset of people who lived in NYC and had Blloomberg as mayor is a very meaningful metric.  Going to be hard to form a winning coalition out of that group. 

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Just now, Maithanet said:

I'm not sure that the tiny subset of people who lived in NYC and had Blloomberg as mayor is a very meaningful metric.  Going to be hard to form a winning coalition out of that group. 

Lol, true. Though there are a lot of them that live in Florida now, so that's two important states. But I wasn't trying to claim that there's a huge amount of legitimate Bloomberg support out there. Rather just an interesting anecdote. Especially since I'd have expected my dad to support Sanders (or Yang or Williamson if we count minor candidates who dropped out).

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1 hour ago, larrytheimp said:

No, that's not the statistic I'm referring to. Scroll down and you'll see "Tracking Name Recognition and Favorability Among Dem Primary Voters" and you'll see

Sanders 74

Biden 68

Warren 63

Bloomberg 61

Etc.  

Sorry it's not the exact statistic you want, but it's also not the "first choice candidate" you seem to be making it out to be.  Yes, the party infrastructure is against him.  But please look at the link and see what I'm actually referring to.  

If you want someone the party won't grumble about but will leave a bunch of voters sitting at home come November, just pick Bloomberg.

My apologies, that was me reading in a hurry. :)

Talking about what I 'want' is missing my point. It's not about which candidate I want. And Bloomberg is an odd example to pick, since he has equal unfavourability ratings with Sanders, and given his unorthodox approach to the primaries and history of donations to Republicans, is also unlikely to be someone who inherently has the party on-side. (I mean, unless by 'the party' you understand me to mean the nebulous cabal of wealthy elites that some like to attribute all ills to.)

I don't think it's controversial - it's almost banal - to say that Sanders would face a challenge in unifying the party behind him as the nominee. My point was that he has to take positive steps to do this, rather than (as many Sanders supporters I've seen suggest) simply demanding that the party fall into line: and that if he doesn't, he himself risks leaving a lot of voters sitting home in November.

I think a number of the potential nominees face similar problems - Biden, for example, would have no trouble with members of the party grumbling about his candidacy but would definitely fail to enthuse them. Bloomberg would piss a lot of the party off, too. Buttigieg has few enemies in the party, as he's too new to the national scene, but few allies either, and a lot of the party may be wary of him. The point is that whoever wins, they have to ensure party unity. They can't just expect it as a right.

As for Barr:

Quote

I cannot do my job here at the department with a constant background commentary that undercuts me

tr - Donald, I can't do what you need me to do if you're talking about it publicly.

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18 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I’m just floored he criticized Trump.  I didn’t think I’d see the day.

So Barr to be dismissed tomorrow.

If you want a tip for the bookie on next AG, let's just say Jared has succesfully solved the middle East problem, so he has earnt a rest can now deal with less urgent matters.

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I don't know about all that. A lot of DoJ watchers are dubious that Barr's statement is anything more than show, and the fact that Jim Acosta just reported that they've been told Trump isn't upset by Barr's remarks is kind of telling (if it holds). The proof in the pudding will be if Trump stops tweeting commentary on the DoJ and its cases. I suspect he will not, and Barr will just shrug and disclaim any responsibility or means of counteracting.

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49 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

No, he's basically complained that his primary job of covering up for Trump's crimes is impossible to deal with while Trump openly talks about on Twitter doing crimes.

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45 minutes ago, Fez said:

As I discovered this weekend, my dad. He thinks Bloomberg is smarter than the candidates, would hire better people than the other candidates, and is more pragmatic than the other candidates. He thinks Bloomberg was a good NYC mayor and that he'd be a steady, normalizing force in the White House. No idea if he is representative of the aging, liberal, Jewish New Yorker vote, but there you go.

And for reference, he thinks Sanders has "some great ideas" but would "get killed" in an election against Trump.

He's not -- at least according to mine own purely anecdotal reports of friends and their parents and their grandparents!

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22 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

If voters chose logically, sure.  But who is excited about Bloomberg?  Anybody?  Because there's a huge portion of the country that is excited about Trump. 

Just being the lesser of two evils is not enough for Democrats.   I think Bloomberg would be fairly easy for Trump to vilify and defeat. 

Who is really excited about anyone other than Sanders and maybe Pete?

6 minutes ago, Fez said:

Lol, true. Though there are a lot of them that live in Florida now, so that's two important states. But I wasn't trying to claim that there's a huge amount of legitimate Bloomberg support out there. Rather just an interesting anecdote. Especially since I'd have expected my dad to support Sanders (or Yang or Williamson if we count minor candidates who dropped out).

Jesus dude, why you gotta do your daddy like that? Shade has been thrown.

:P

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On Bloomberg....daaaamn.

Quote

 

One of the biggest factors in a large number of black people’s primary voting criterion is who they think white people will vote for when the curtain closes behind them in the voting booth. We know Bernie has better policy plans. We know Elizabeth Warren is a better communicator. We have seen Buttigieg’s Douglass plan.

But we also know white people.

Donald Trump is proof of what they will do.

 

https://www.theroot.com/i-cant-believe-black-people-might-actually-vote-for-mic-1841611802

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16 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Who is really excited about anyone other than Sanders and maybe Pete?

I’m excited as fuck for Warren. I’m also preparing for this country to break my heart on that count and overlook the person who, as far as I’m concerned, is the best candidate by a mile.

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16 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Who is really excited about anyone other than Sanders and maybe Pete?

 

No lie, I am super excited to support anyone very, very heavily after the primary. None of the candidates have earned my absolute undivided love, but all of the frontrunners I'd happily go and work for. Yes, that includes Bloomberg too. I can find good things about each and every one of them.

I have my preferences - probably Warren and Buttigieg out of the ones remaining - but I'm entirely going to go all in no matter what. And honestly based on the math I had I'm really tempted to just start going whole hog on Sanders, simply to get the primary done faster and unite dems earlier, and so far he's the only one who appears to have any chance of that. 

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6 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

No lie, I am super excited to support anyone very, very heavily after the primary. None of the candidates have earned my absolute undivided love, but all of the frontrunners I'd happily go and work for. Yes, that includes Bloomberg too. I can find good things about each and every one of them.

I have my preferences - probably Warren and Buttigieg out of the ones remaining - but I'm entirely going to go all in no matter what. And honestly based on the math I had I'm really tempted to just start going whole hog on Sanders, simply to get the primary done faster and unite dems earlier, and so far he's the only one who appears to have any chance of that. 

Agree with all of this. And if the math suddenly changes, I'm ready to jump on whatever new bandwagon comes along.

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