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Football: winter break over


Iskaral Pust

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44 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Not really, while I don't think the City player's handball was punishable (except when they had scored a goal), the Arnold handball on the other hand (no pun intended), let's just say, I really think Liverpool got more than a bit lucky there. But fact of the matter is, City didn't get the penalty, Liverpool scored and won that game, never looked back and just went on cruise mode towards the title. And it doesn'T really matter one way or the other. Full credit to Liverpool, it's just a freaking impressive season.

I think you’re trying too hard to create a sliding doors moment for the entire season.  Even if City got a result that day, which is no guarantee even if they got an early penalty, how does that make this relentless Liverpool team drop 20 points in other games?  Or how does it make City’s shaky defense suddenly better in all their other games?  You’re extrapolating some enormous psychologic ripple effect through the next ~30 games on both teams.  That’s wishful thinking in the extreme.  What if Liverpool were more resolved, or City more complacent?  Even after the Hillsborough Disaster, with players and manager suffering from PTSD and depression, the Liverpool team still closed the gap on Arsenal (Liverpool has been lagging in the title race until late in the season), until Arsenal very narrowly won the title in the final minutes of the season, and Liverpool still managed to win the cup.

You’re trying another version of Liverpool are winning the title because of luck.  When success is this consistent and sustained, then you’re kidding yourself about luck. Luck shows up in random fine margins and it evens out.  Taking 110 points out of the last 112* available is not luck.

*or whatever is the latest count

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41 minutes ago, Iskaral Pust said:

I think you’re trying too hard to create a sliding doors moment for the entire season.  Even if City got a result that day, which is no guarantee even if they got an early penalty, how does that make this relentless Liverpool team drop 20 points in other games?  Or how does it make City’s shaky defense suddenly better in all their other games?

Like I said, this is an academic discussion.

I think a bit of both comes into play.

Real table after matchday 12.

1. Liverpool 34 pts

2. Leicester 26 Pts.

4. City 25 Pts.

Fictitious table after Matchday 12 (had City won that day).

1. Liverpool 31 pts.

2. City 28 pts.

So that game was indeed the proverbial six pointer.

As for Liverpool they would've had a mere cushin of 3 points instead of 9 or 8 points (if you really wanted to include Leicester and Chelsea). Which might have made things a bit more tense going in the subsequent games with City breathing down their neck. And we could've seen how they react to actually losing a league game. Instead they just marched on with that invicibility charm around them. That surely is nice boost morale, and a wee bit more intimidating to other teams. Liverpool is a daunting task for any team these days, even without that extra layer. I mean for a while now the general expectation is, ok, the Liverpool game is a write off. One of the boons of being a really good team.

As for City they would've kept Liverpool in their sights, and coming out of the toughest fixture of the season with a win should've given them a boost, too.

Enough for a 20 point swing? Probably not. But I think Liverpool might have dropped another point here or there in those relatively close contests (the first Leicester games comes to mind). And City might also have picked up a few more points here and there.

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57 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

If Solskjaer gets United into the Champions League will they extend his contract?

He'd still have two years on his contract after this season so we shouldn't be extending at the end of this season anyway but it's anyone's guess what the clowns will actually do. 

 

We got lucky there. Maguire should have been sent off and I think that Zouma's goal should have stood. Bailly was a bit shaky but I'd have him over Jones any day - a properly match fit Bailey is better than Jones by a distance. It's his first competitive game since April last year after two serious knee injuries so rustiness is to be expected. Bruno was good too - it's a relief to have someone with actual creative ability rather than the liabilities that are Pereira, Lingard and Mata. 

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4 minutes ago, Consigliere said:

Maguire should have been sent off and I think that Zouma's goal should have stood.

 

I think it;s the other way around - Maguire probably should have gone but at least there's a case that he was mindlessly protecting himself. There's no question at all over whether Azpiliqueta would have fouled Williams if Fred hadn't shoved him first- that was stonewall either a goal or a penalty.

Just now, Soylent Brown said:

Fernandes would have had an even better game if Dan James had half a brain. The number of times he moved into space in position to receive the ball only for James to tunnelvision his way to the line and put in a shit cross instead... 


I feel like Dan James should be playing wingback. I like him as a player overall but he's an absolutely dreadful forward.

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James is much more effective when playing as a wide forward on the left. He's more comfortable cutting in from the left and taking shots/crosses so it isn't a surprise that his goals and assists have dried up ever since he's been moved out to the right. We really need someone who prefers (and is effective) playing on the right.

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Just now, Consigliere said:

We really need someone who prefers (and is effective) playing on the right.



Emilian Buendia fanclub right here.

I actually don't mind James on the right as a winger but it's pretty useless him driving out wide and putting flat crosses and cutbacks in when no-one's rushing to get on the end of them, which is most of the time. When we've got a striker who'll ride the shoulder of the defensive line consistently then he can do that.

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Setting aside the VAR gifts to United: Maguire should’ve been off rather than scoring, and Zouma’s goal should’ve stood...

Fred has rehabilitated his reputation at United in just 2-3 months.  He was dire before that but is now consistently one of their best players.  And Bailly could do something similar if he can stay healthy — I always thought he had a much higher ceiling than any of the other CBs there, albeit prone to rash moments.  And Fernandes offers them a new creative schemer since Pogba is clearly a lost cause.  OTOH, they still don’t have any coherent plan to use possession.

Chelsea were unfortunate to lose Kante early, on top of injuries to Abraham, CHO and Pulisic, but they have self-inflicted problems with their team selection, especially the bizarre exclusion of Giroud, and the ongoing circus with the keepers.  They’ve been struggling for goals for a while, but they keep persisting.  Lampard had an early period of success from Abraham and Mount, but he’s had no clue what to do since their form ebbed.  You cannot rely on youngsters performing significantly above their average for an entire season.  They can certainly raise their average season by season, but it’ll fluctuate as they’re learning. 

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12 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Not really, while I don't think the City player's handball was punishable (except when they had scored a goal), the Arnold handball on the other hand (no pun intended), let's just say, I really think Liverpool got more than a bit lucky there. But fact of the matter is, City didn't get the penalty, Liverpool scored and won that game, never looked back and just went on cruise mode towards the title. And it doesn'T really matter one way or the other. Full credit to Liverpool, it's just a freaking impressive season.

Sure it was punishable.  The Handball laws read:

Quote

Handling the ball
It is an offence if a player:

  • deliberately touches the ball with their hand/arm, including moving the hand/arm towards the ball
  • gains possession/control of the ball after it has touched their hand/arm and then:
    • scores in the opponents’ goal
    • creates a goal-scoring opportunity
  • scores in the opponents’ goal directly from their hand/arm, even if accidental, including by the goalkeeper

.....

The above offences apply even if the ball touches a player’s hand/arm directly from the head or body (including the foot) of another player who is close.

Emphasis mine. Supported by at least one ex-referee (https://www.goal.com/en-au/news/var-made-correct-alexander-arnold-decision-but-the-premier/wj82x7cnuqw81czbj0ukmx4ra), or how Silva himself seemed to backtrack a little (https://liverpooloffside.sbnation.com/liverpool-fc-news-coverage/2019/11/11/20959129/bernardo-silva-admits-alexander-armold-handball-not-clear-man-city-liverpool-epl-2019).  

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