Heresy 230 and die Herren von Winterfell

[alienarea]

14 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

You do realise of course that the acronym for A Dream of Spring will not be ADOS but DOS  

Which used to be mocked by IT guys like me as "Denial of Service".

Which might summarize what GRRM will deliver quite well.

[Lady Rhodes]

Jon will be resurrected/ my theory is that resurrections focus on the last goals or thoughts of the deceased (Beric saving the Riverlands, Stonehart against the Lannister’s and Frey’s) so I think Jon’s thoughts will be based on his emotions while reading the Pink Letter - Winterfell, Arya, and saving the Wildings and North. 

Speaking of the Pink Letter, I think Selyse and Melisandre will burn Shireen thinking they Pink Letter is real and that is partly how Jon will come back (I think he warped into Ghost, too)

Euron is going to get a dragon and knock the Wall down (either by Dragon or by horn) - he is the new Night’s King. 
 

Dany is going to destroy Aegon and Jon Con. I think the Bells in Kings Landing is foreshadowed by Jon Cons haunted PTSD like memories of the Battle of the Bells

 

[Brad Stark]

I hate to keep repeating old posts, but reread the end of ADWD with the suspicion Mel wrote the pink letter.  It shows up right after a dramatic change in her attitude toward Jon, she goes from trying really hard to convince him to  being frustrated with him and giving up on him.  Then she leaves and is nowhere to be found right when the rebellion happens.  If you believe Jon is AA, this is also a great twist of irony. 

[St Daga]

I haven't posted over here in a bit but the turn of discussion caught my attention.

11 hours ago, alienarea said:

As I am not a fan of resurrections, Jon stays dead and gone.

 

6 hours ago, Black Crow said:

I'm not a fan of resurrections either, but I think that GRRM has teased too much to see him dead and gone. On the other hand, while I see him "coming back" it aint going to be the guilt-free trip offered by the mummers and promoted by the R+L=J lot anxious to see him on the Iron Throne. He's going to come back wrong and while he's most likely to have cold hands, I really wouldn't rule out starry blue eyes.

Certainly, GRRM has been toying with resurrection as a theme in this story from early on. We have Beric and Stoneheart and even what I speculate might have been a very early resurrection of Bran Stark after his fall from that tower. But I don't think Jon will be resurrected... because he will not die. At least not from that stabbing that we are witnesses to near the end of Dance. I think GRRM likes to tease us, and he certainly left us with a cliff hanger, but if we are taking bets, I am voting for a Jon who walks away from that scene with a little blood loss but otherwise unscathed. 

But since I do see resurrection as a theme that GRRM is working in his story, I think perhaps the person we need to expect to be resurrected is not Jon Snow, but the man who groomed him, a man he is very like and compared to often, Eddard Stark. There are hints that Ned's life is not complete, including several hints of he and Cat having more children, specifically a son. This also includes powerful Osiris imagery surround when Eddard's bones are presented to Cat, sans his faithful sword, Ice, as great phallic imagery, hint at the Osiris myth. And Osiris is reconstructed and brought back for long enough to father a son, Horus. Then, Osiris slips away to become the ruler of the Underworld, another theme that also hangs heavily over Eddard Stark. But before Ned Stark slips back to the underworld, I expect to see him dark and cold, a vengeful spirit, just like the lords of Winterfell that Ned introduces us to in his very first POV.

This is not a new idea for me, and I have played with the concept for years, but I think social isolation has brought back some of my more tinfoil idea's to the surface. What if Jon is destined to have to put an end the a risen Eddard Stark, the father figure that has guided him through his entire life. Now that would be a hard blow for Jon to strike, how painful, how agonizing, but it would not at all surprise me since GRRM seems to like to kick his readers in the privates and make us howl just as much as he likes to do such awful things to his characters.

[Lady Rhodes]

1 hour ago, Brad Stark said:

I hate to keep repeating old posts, but reread the end of ADWD with the suspicion Mel wrote the pink letter.  It shows up right after a dramatic change in her attitude toward Jon, she goes from trying really hard to convince him to  being frustrated with him and giving up on him.  Then she leaves and is nowhere to be found right when the rebellion happens.  If you believe Jon is AA, this is also a great twist of irony. 

I will certainly try that. I don’t know that I will agree but I am willing to read with that POV in mind.

[St Daga]

1 hour ago, Brad Stark said:

I hate to keep repeating old posts, but reread the end of ADWD with the suspicion Mel wrote the pink letter.  It shows up right after a dramatic change in her attitude toward Jon, she goes from trying really hard to convince him to  being frustrated with him and giving up on him.  Then she leaves and is nowhere to be found right when the rebellion happens.  If you believe Jon is AA, this is also a great twist of irony. 

The idea of Mel writing the pink letter makes more sense to me all of the time. As a matter of fact, she has already warned Jon that she see's him surrounded by daggers in the dark, smiling faces with knives out when is back his turned. She has shown us she is quite capable of thinking she needs to help create the visions she see's happen, so if she felt like this needed to happen to Jon, she would be capable of doing almost anything to get him into the proper circumstances. Hence the writing the pink letter and temping Jon with one thing she knows is his weakness, the safety of his sister Arya. Similar to what she did when she thought that she would help Stannis' cause by causing Renly's death, but the vision she saw came true anyway, simply by her machinations, no matter who might have been wearing Renly's armor. 

[Melifeather]

And how would Melisandre know who Reek is or that he and fArya escaped?

[Brad Stark]

A cheap cop out is Mel could have seen anything in her flames.  But we know from grrm that Stannis is not dead.  So it seems regardless of author, the pink letter contains some speculation, not all of which is correct. 

Imo the pink letter was written for Jon, so it doesn't need to be more accurate than his knowledge. 

[Brad Stark]

As I said, the biggest argument for Mel is the tone and timing of her chapters in ADWD.  You also have to ask what the motive of the letter was. 

It clearly was to make Jon mad and march South or get killed, it was clearly not to get Jon to appease Ramsay. Is antagonizing Jon out of character for Ramsay?  Not really, he stands to lose a lot in Jon actually matches south, but might be crazy enough anyway. 

Stannis and Mance make little sense to me.  They had a far better chance to get help from Jon earlier, and didn't.  Why try to get him to move South now?  Both are far too arrogant to want Jon's help, let alone scheme elaborately to trick him into helping. 

Manderly perhaps has motive tied to revenge for the Red Wedding, but this is a long shot.  The Freys and Lannisters are far more likely targets of his revenge so an eleborate plan to get Jon to move South against Ramsay seems far out there. 

[Black Crow]

11 hours ago, St Daga said:

...I expect to see him dark and cold, a vengeful spirit, just like the lords of Winterfell that Ned introduces us to in his very first POV.

 

I think that might fit Jon better

[Lady Rhodes]

7 hours ago, Melifeather said:

And how would Melisandre know who Reek is or that he and fArya escaped?

I think this is the biggest point in favor of Mel NOT writing the letter. 

I tend to believe it is a fake (as in not written by Ramsey) unless the time lines are very screwed up (in which case I bet we will find out towards the beginning of winds). 

Is it Mance? But how would he know about Reek? Unless the letter is also intended for someone else who would know. Is there anyone who fits that bill at the wall?

[Brad Stark]

2 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I think this is the biggest point in favor of Mel NOT writing the letter. 

I tend to believe it is a fake (as in not written by Ramsey) unless the time lines are very screwed up (in which case I bet we will find out towards the beginning of winds). 

Is it Mance? But how would he know about Reek? Unless the letter is also intended for someone else who would know. Is there anyone who fits that bill at the wall?

I don't see how the timelines factor in.  We can be certain the letter isn't 100% honest regardless of who wrote it.  Ramsay as the author saying Stannis died is not the letter being from the future, just Ramsay lying to piss Jon off. 

The inclusion of Reek and fAraya's escape are strong points towards Ramsay being the author, since none of the other candidates seem to know this.  But Mel is the only candidate with means to know things far away. 

[Lady Rhodes]

2 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

don't see how the timelines factor in

I agree with you in that I believe it is a fake. To play devils advocate, however, I was saying it could be a similar situation to Clash and Storm, where some of the events at the beginning of Storm were happening simultaneously with end events in Clash. 

[Melifeather]

5 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I think this is the biggest point in favor of Mel NOT writing the letter. 

I tend to believe it is a fake (as in not written by Ramsey) unless the time lines are very screwed up (in which case I bet we will find out towards the beginning of winds). 

Is it Mance? But how would he know about Reek? Unless the letter is also intended for someone else who would know. Is there anyone who fits that bill at the wall?

Mance is Abel and at Winterfell. He would have met Theon and known him as Reek as well as known about the escape. 

[Melifeather]

If anyone is interested, I've just posted my latest recap of Westworld.

[Lady Rhodes]

4 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

Mance is Abel and at Winterfell. He would have met Theon and known him as Reek as well as known about the escape. 

Yes, but who at Castle Black would understand that knowledge? Are you saying that Mance (who I am aware is Abel) assumes that Reek was escaping north and that Jon would understand? 

[alienarea]

3 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

I don't see how the timelines factor in.  We can be certain the letter isn't 100% honest regardless of who wrote it.  Ramsay as the author saying Stannis died is not the letter being from the future, just Ramsay lying to piss Jon off. 

The inclusion of Reek and fAraya's escape are strong points towards Ramsay being the author, since none of the other candidates seem to know this.  But Mel is the only candidate with means to know things far away. 

On the Other hand, Ramsay would not know about the wildling princess unless he tortured Mance. But if Ramsay were torturing Mance, he would ask for other Information.

What if Ramsay and Mance wrote the letter together, after killing Roose? Both want Jon in Winterfell, both would want to get rid of Stannis. And they could underestimate each Other  enough to go for this.

[alienarea]

5 minutes ago, alienarea said:

On the Other hand, Ramsay would not know about the wildling princess unless he tortured Mance. But if Ramsay were torturing Mance, he would ask for other Information.

What if Ramsay and Mance wrote the letter together, after killing Roose? Both want Jon in Winterfell, both would want to get rid of Stannis. And they could underestimate each Other  enough to go for this.

Thinking this a little further: Mance surprises Ramsay when he kills Roose. They end up in this mesalliance and write the letter. Stannis surprises Ramsay at the frozen lake battle, but Mance closes the gates of Winterfell, letting Stannis freeze to death. Maybe Mance poses as Benjen? Then Jon would arrive and we would have a symmetry to Bael?

[Melifeather]

1 hour ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Yes, but who at Castle Black would understand that knowledge? Are you saying that Mance (who I am aware is Abel) assumes that Reek was escaping north and that Jon would understand? 

Jon has no idea who Reek is. Only the letter writer would know, or pretend to know, who Reek is, but the letter writer is assuming Reek made his way to the Wall with fArya. Jon would think that since Alys already arrived at Castle Black that the bride in question might actually be Arya. IMO the mere existence of the demand for Reek confirms the letter writer is someone at Winterfell.

[Brad Stark]

The author does not necessarily know anything about Reek, possibly not even that Reek is a person.  The wording is unusual and if the author is not Ramsay, it likely is someone who heard him say "I want my Reek" or similar.  Someone who knows a lot but didn't hear Ramsay would write "I want Reek". 

Did the writer believe Theon may make it to Jon ahead of the letter?  If not, what is the point of including this at all?