US Politics: Money, Money, Money Makes the World Go Round

[Kalbear]

Bloomberg's favorability dropped by 30.points with moderate dems since the debate, so any of yall who feared and loathed him should toss a coin to your Warren. 

[Freshwater Spartan]

If you have to take 15 minutes to explain why your version of socialism is different and much better than what the other thinks it is you have lost the debate. It just too difficult to talk about those abstractions and theories and win a political discussion.For what it's worth I've spent many younger  years calling myself a democratic socialist. Not sure what I call myself now.

15 minutes ago, butterbumps! said:

God help me, I do love Warren.  She is far and away the best candidate in the mix.    

I love Pete but I really dig Warren too.

[OldGimletEye]

On 2/20/2020 at 3:14 PM, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Yes, I think we all agree with this.  But that is most likely to happen if there are other reasons to sustain the tanking.  I would be paying closer attention to jobs growth, unemployment (by various measurements), commodity prices,  consumer debt ratios, corporate debt ratios, corporate confidence, consumer confidence, etc.  I think there are a lot of macro indications that something is going to happen.  But I've been saying that for two years now.  Summoning @OldGimletEye.

All this is relevant. But, the main worry is the fact the Fed Funds Rate is still too low and what the government response is going to be. I wonder what sort of shenanigans we will get next time. Well it probably will be similar to the last time. Another 10 year recession. Good times.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

21 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I know you’re joking, but did you forget that this already happened to a ranking House Republican recently, and the response was “we could have stopped the shooter if we were allowed to have our guns. MOAR GUNZZZ!!!”

Pointless Disclaimer:

Cynical post incoming, that'll make Jace look like puny pony princess.

House Republicans, pfft amateurs. You go after Trump appointed judges and Senators. Those who can and will do long term damage.

 

I mean, you just have to look back for the past six years. What protests where there?

On the one hand, we had the smart civilized creative protest with pussy hats. On the other hand, we had some yahoos picking up arms to defend a rancher, who broke the law and threatened federal agents with force.

One of those protests was succesful, the other one was a fashion statement. One side is doing a civlized a protest, or the biggest mandmaid's tale cosplay in history, while the other is wrecking up your democratic institutions. Writing mails and letters to Lindsey Lohan or Lindsey Graham is having very little effect on that.

At some point it's time to realize that you are not getting anywhere, and that this reality is not a biopic featuring Ben Kingsley. I think, I would've gone full prepper at some point, if I were American that is. 

But since I am not, I will just try to write a Haiku on behalf of the POTUS just to show what you are up against. I haven't tried writing a Haiku in over twenty years, so don't be too critical of the metrics.

Into office.

Mexican rapists. Their kids locked in cages like Animals in the Zoo.

[OldGimletEye]

On 2/20/2020 at 2:16 PM, Tywin et al. said:

 even if it’s the result of a self-fulfilling prophecy, can bring the rest of the economy down with it.

Have you playing around with OLG models again? Well, I don't blame you. Multiple equilibrium and sunspots are pretty interesting.

[Kalbear]

In more 'we're doomed' bits, good news everyone - Russians are also attempting to help Sanders

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1230966589954150402?s=20

[Jace, Extat]

43 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Pointless Disclaimer:

Cynical post incoming, that'll make Jace look like puny pony princess.

House Republicans, pfft amateurs. You go after Trump appointed judges and Senators. Those who can and will do long term damage.

 

I mean, you just have to look back for the past six years. What protests where there?

On the one hand, we had the smart civilized creative protest with pussy hats. On the other hand, we had some yahoos picking up arms to defend a rancher, who broke the law and threatened federal agents with force.

One of those protests was succesful, the other one was a fashion statement. One side is doing a civlized a protest, or the biggest mandmaid's tale cosplay in history, while the other is wrecking up your democratic institutions. Writing mails and letters to Lindsey Lohan or Lindsey Graham is having very little effect on that.

At some point it's time to realize that you are not getting anywhere, and that this reality is not a biopic featuring Ben Kingsley. I think, I would've gone full prepper at some point, if I were American that is. 

 

#MeToo!

[Mlle. Zabzie]

52 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

In more 'we're doomed' bits, good news everyone - Russians are also attempting to help Sanders

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1230966589954150402?s=20

The VERY cynical me says that whether or not this is IN FACT true, the White House wants us to THINK it is true because Cold War reasons.

[DMC]

7 hours ago, Ormond said:

I worry that he just doesn't have the personality to be more "conciliatory" on his "symbolic messaging" during the general election campaign than he is now. Do you have evidence for him making such a shift in the past somewhere?

I mean, no, I don't have anything I could cite quickly.  Like I said, this is just based on my observation of his campaigns.  Particularly in 2006, when I was living in DC, just got kicked out of AU as an undergrad, so I had a lot of time on my hand.  Therefore, I was insanely politically active and was interested in Sanders becoming really the first self-identified "socialist" to be elected to the Senate.  Ever.  Sanders was obviously going to win, but he did have to deal with a - get this - self-funded candidate (Richard Tarrant) who put in upwards of $7 million.  Quaintly, that was a lot back then, and Sanders behaved not as a rabble-rouser, but instead understood how to build bridges in order to fundraise at a competitive level.  

So, my evidence there is I personally worked with his (very low level) people then.  And they knew, even in Vermont, it was best to moderate his message in order to run up the score, or margin of victory.  I mean, this can be seen even in his expressed policy preferences or voting record.  Do you think Bernie Sanders was genuinely against the Brady Bill?  Or do you think he voted against it repeatedly because he's from Vermont which may be insanely liberal on most things, but they also like their guns?

1 hour ago, Freshwater Spartan said:

If you have to take 15 minutes to explain why your version of socialism is different and much better than what the other thinks it is you have lost the debate.

Well said.  Definitions and conceptions of socialism vary.  Widely vary.  But regarding electoral concerns, this is Sanders' fundamental weakness vis-a-vis any other potential nominee.  He has to explain why he's a socialist, and consequently why you are stupid Mr. Average American voter - say Joe the Plumber - for thinking you aren't too.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

1 hour ago, OldGimletEye said:

All this is relevant. But, the main worry is the fact the Fed Funds Rate is still too low and what the government response is going to be. I wonder what sort of shenanigans we will get next time. Well it probably will be similar to the last time. Another 10 year recession. Good times.

Yeah, either upthread in this one, or at the end of the last thread we were talking about how basically all the tools in the toolkit have been used, WHEN THE ECONOMY WAS BOOMING.  Because reasons.  About the only thing that is left is a WPA like infrastructure program, which actually might be useful in the long term (but maybe not as much as people think in the short term), and a war.  

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Kalbear said:

Bloomberg's favorability dropped by 30.points with moderate dems since the debate, so any of yall who feared and loathed him should toss a coin to your Warren. 

If true, Sanders is the ticket. The moderate/liberal split is roughly 60-65/35-40, but so many moderates will fail to hit 15% in a ton of states. If it plays out that way, Sanders will have a lead the only Bloomberg could chase, possibly even if all the other candidates not named Bloomberg or Sanders decide to team up.

1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Mexican rapists. Their kids locked in cages like Animals in the Zoo.

5/7/6, C-. This is how it’s done:

Children in cages,

Downtrodden, starving, freezing,

Stateless and alone

1 hour ago, OldGimletEye said:

Have you playing around with OLG models again? Well, I don't blame you. Multiple equilibrium and sunspots are pretty interesting.

Keep your economics away from me! Freshman year macro and micro were enough for 10 lifetimes!!!

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Freshwater Spartan said:

If you have to take 15 minutes to explain why your version of socialism is different and much better than what the other thinks it is you have lost the debate. It just too difficult to talk about those abstractions and theories and win a political discussion.For what it's worth I've spent many younger  years calling myself a democratic socialist. Not sure what I call myself now.

I thought his line during the debate about the U.S. already having socialism for the very rich, and rugged individualism for everyone else, was a pretty good defense of his democratic socialism.

[OldGimletEye]

22 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Yeah, either upthread in this one, or at the end of the last thread we were talking about how basically all the tools in the toolkit have been used, WHEN THE ECONOMY WAS BOOMING.  Because reasons.  About the only thing that is left is a WPA like infrastructure program, which actually might be useful in the long term (but maybe not as much as people think in the short term), and a war.  

You can either reduce the public's demand to hold cash, which fiscal policy is largely about, or you can supply the public's demand for money. I'm realistic enough to know that fiscal policy won't be forthcoming. With the FED rate at 0, that leaves you with trying NGDP or Price level targeting or something similar. But, I'm not certain we will even get those, with certain sorts people going all Austrian on us last time.

But, who knows, if Trump is still president, then maybe he will be for them, which cause certain sorts of people to change their tune. And then Trump will be held as a genius by the same certain sorts of people.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

41 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

The VERY cynical me says that whether or not this is IN FACT true, the White House wants us to THINK it is true because Cold War reasons.

I actually considered floating the possibility of this earlier. If Russia is also helping Sanders, Trump can dismiss every accusation against him on the subject.

Furthermore, I thought it was obvious this could happen. Only Russia wins when they prop up two bad candidates, one that is destroying the republic and the other could wreck the economy. Either way, Putin can win.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

22 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

I thought his line during the debate about the U.S. already having socialism for the very rich, and rugged individualism for everyone else, was a pretty good defense of his democratic socialism.

The key is getting viewers to see that the U.S. is already somewhat of a blended economy, and that the most popular programs are more in line with democratic socialism than pure free market capitalism. 

Also, low key, the military is like the most socialist, authoritarian thing in the country and it does a bad job of economic efficiency. 

[DMC]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

so many moderates will fail to hit 15% in a ton of states.

This will almost always not matter, and one of the things that grinds my gears.  Would any presidential primary contest ever be different based on delegate apportion threshold?  No?  Then maybe it's a rather pointless distinction.  Even if you proportioned pledged delegates perfectly equivalent to the popular vote, that's not going to change anything.  It's trivia.

[Zorral]

Now, we all know that Politico is ALL IN FOR BERNIE.

So we think about that while reading this:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/20/bloomberg-brokered-convention-strategy-116407

Bloomberg quietly plotting brokered convention strategy
The effort is designed as a potential backstop to block Bernie Sanders by poaching supporters from Joe Biden and other moderates.

 

 

[ThinkerX]

Trump unleashed - and fumbling for his 'self destruct' button:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-aide-asked-cabinet-agencies-to-identify-anti-trump-appointees-report/ar-BB10fR0S?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=msnclassic

 

ohnny McEntee, President Trump's former body man and current head of the presidential personnel office, gathered White House liaisons from Cabinet agencies on Thursday and asked for them to identify political appointees across the federal government who are thought to be politically at odds with the president, sources told Axios.

According to Axios's sources, Trump gave McEntee the green light to oust the "bad people" and "deep state." Additionally, McEntee told the staffers that those identified as "anti-Trump" would no longer receive promotions and would be moved around the agencies.

 

[ThinkerX]

interesting to contrast Sander's reaction to Trumps.  Sanders condemns the Russians in clear terms; Trump condemns his own intelligence agencies:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/sanders-condemns-russian-influence-in-election/ar-BB10fSiV?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=msnclassic

 

WASHINGTON (AP) — Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders said Friday he was briefed by U.S. officials “about a month ago” that Russia has been trying to help his campaign as part of Moscow's efforts to interfere in the 2020 presidential election.

 

“It was not clear what role they were going to play,” Sanders said during a campaign stop in California. “We were told that Russia, maybe other countries, are going to get involved in this campaign.”

 

The Vermont senator continued: “Here’s the message to Russia: Stay out of American elections.”

[Kalbear]

We have the dumbest possible political system

https://twitter.com/chaneyj/status/1231041799797473280?s=20