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Alyn Oakenfist

The Frey civil war

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So the Freys are no. 1 in everybody's hope they die this book list. However when thinking about the succession it's pretty clear that when Walder Frey dies (please GRRM, make it happen soon) there is going to be a civil war. The question is between whom? There are I think several possibilities.

1. If both Edwyn and Black Walder are alive then it's probably going to be a fight between the 2 of them, with Riverrun and Darry supporting whoever they find more convenient (probably not the same guy).

2. Either Edwin or Black Walder dies. Then it's probably going to be a fight between Riverrun vs The Twins.

3. They both die, in which case Luthor the Lame probably executes a palace coup and takes control over the Twins. Again it's The Twins vs Riverrun.

In the end however my bet would be that the winner will be...

Littlefinger. I seriously doubt he will attack the North, especially given that Moat Cailin is in Bolton hands and that he cannot attack it from the North. It's far more likely he will use the civil war to attack the most unpopular house in Westeros, for whom nobody will move a finger. This will also permit him to become Lord Paramount of the Riverlands for real, not only in name, as well as having the 3 important castles in the Riverlands: Harrenhal, Riverrun and the Twins. After smashing the Freys and appointing some new riverlords to positions of power he will have a very loyal power base from which to continue his plans.

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There's a hypothesis that the opposing Freys will destroy the bridge, rendering their castle and family useless. They'll probably all end up killing each other without much need for outside assistance.

As for Littlefinger, I don't think he's interested in the Riverlands which is currently a scorched wasteland. And even he thinks that Harrenhal is cursed.

People from the Vale can get to the North by boat. That's what Ned did during the rebellion. Given Petyr's closeness with Gulltown merchants, it's likely that he has a few connections with White Harbor and obviously the Manderlys are conspiring against the Boltons. If the Knights of the Vale show up in White Harbor, which also now has warships, it would be a serious problem for dear Roose.

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1 hour ago, CassieSol919 said:

People from the Vale can get to the North by boat. That's what Ned did during the rebellion. Given Petyr's closeness with Gulltown merchants, it's likely that he has a few connections with White Harbor and obviously the Manderlys are conspiring against the Boltons. If the Knights of the Vale show up in White Harbor, which also now has warships, it would be a serious problem for dear Roose.

First off, Ned was one guy and he nearly died. The armies of the Vale won't be able to use fisherman ships from the northern part of the Vale (forgot how it's called). The only port with the proper infrastructure to carry out such amphibious operation is Gulltown. However by now it's autumn (maybe even late autumn) and he would have to travel a considerable distance by ship. All in all the risk is very big (though to be fair, Littlefinger would probably take it). However there is also the problem of how many ships he has. From what we now the Gulltown fleet is the 6th or 7th largest in Westeros after the Ironborn Fleet, the Redwayne fleet, the Velaryon fleet, the Dragonstone fleet, the Royal fleet and maybe even the Shield isles fleet (not anymore though on the last one). All in all I'm not sure his ships would have the capacity to transport even a fraction of the Vale army.

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I cant see the lords of the Vale attacking the Riverlands on Littlefingers behalf, and he has no army of his own.

Well, maybe, if the Lannister regime falls, and Sansa is revealed and married to HtH, they may very well press Sansas claim to the Riverlands. But I doubt the Vale lords are willing to lift a finger for Baelish.

Freys killing Freys in a civil war though, with BwB fighting/sabotaging both sides. That sounds like fun.

 

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19 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

 

1. If both Edwyn and Black Walder are alive then it's probably going to be a fight between the 2 of them, with Riverrun and Darry supporting whoever they find more convenient (probably not the same guy).

2. Either Edwin or Black Walder dies. Then it's probably going to be a fight between Riverrun vs The Twins.

3. They both die, in which case Luthor the Lame probably executes a palace coup and takes control over the Twins. Again it's The Twins vs Riverrun.

If Edwyn and Walder take each other out my guess is that the winning faction would be from Stevron's other branches, rather than Emmon.

  • His second wife was a Waynwood, Walton married to a Hardyng with three children, two of the three seem to be amongst the most attractive of the Freys. This will be a branch that might gain Vale support should there be a civil war.
  • His only daughter, married to a Vance with three heirs of her own. Given the Vances are one of the more powerful Riverland houses this also makes sense

I can't see Genna allowing Emmon to try and take the Twins, for one she did not want Riverrun, but the smaller Darry. She is aware about overextending herself and is not going to be encouraging her husband to start a civil war with one of their few allies in the Riverlands.

19 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

 

Littlefinger. I seriously doubt he will attack the North, especially given that Moat Cailin is in Bolton hands and that he cannot attack it from the North. It's far more likely he will use the civil war to attack the most unpopular house in Westeros, for whom nobody will move a finger. This will also permit him to become Lord Paramount of the Riverlands for real, not only in name, as well as having the 3 important castles in the Riverlands: Harrenhal, Riverrun and the Twins. After smashing the Freys and appointing some new riverlords to positions of power he will have a very loyal power base from which to continue his plans.

I don't see Littlefinger attacking anyone, especially for something that does not gain him anything. Littlefinger does everything in the shadows, he buys people, he uses politics, he does not engage in wars himself. By doing so he makes his position public.

Littlefinger's current tactic seems to be to buy up as much food as possible and grow powerful through commerce and trade during winter, rather than military action. Littefinger plans to be the last man standing without ever making a public enemy, he wants all sides to think he is an ally.

 

6 hours ago, CassieSol919 said:

There's a hypothesis that the opposing Freys will destroy the bridge, rendering their castle and family useless.

I'm really not sure why they would do that. It also would not make their castle or family useless. The Twins is one of the strongest castles in the Realm while their lands stretch South pretty far, with lands on two of the three forks. Obviously they'd be less wealthy without their bridge, but far from useless.

 

 

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39 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

His second wife was a Waynwood, Walton married to a Hardyng with three children, two of the three seem to be amongst the most attractive of the Freys. This will be a branch that might gain Vale support should there be a civil war.

Even more pretext for Littlefinger to intervene.

40 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Littefinger plans to be the last man standing without ever making a public enemy

Well given how everybody either hates the Freys or just despises them, he would be nobody's enemy if he wiped the out, or at least take all their power.

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16 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Even more pretext for Littlefinger to intervene.

I'd say no more or less. It is not in Littlefinger's MO to do that. He acts from the shadows. He does not want to seem a threat to any of the other players of the game.

He is not going to the stop the Waynwoods or Hardyng's get involved, but he's not going to support it either. There is little upside for him.

16 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Well given how everybody either hates the Freys or just despises them, he would be nobody's enemy if he wiped the out, or at least take all their power.

That is not really true though. The Crown got into bed with the Freys, many Houses are intermarried with them, including some very powerful Houses from the Westerlands. They might not like th Freys, but the Crown and the Westerlands would be idiotic to sit back and let another faction wipe out their key allies in the Riverlands.

The Freys also hold three of the most valuable settlements in the Riverlands and have a pretty sizable army and supplies of their own. So while Littlefinger could beat them, it would take a large host, large cost of his food supplies to do so. It does not gain him anything considering he is already their Lord.

Littlefinger is intelligent, he's not one of these noble who was born and raised to love war, no matter the cost. One loss during Winter may lose him both the Vale and the Riverlands. It is a pointless gamble for him.

 

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My bet is on Big Walder as the ultimate winner of The Twins. But I won’t object if one of the eldest Frey ladies gets the castle and becomes Lady of the Crossing, thus starting a new era.

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6 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

First off, Ned was one guy and he nearly died. The armies of the Vale won't be able to use fisherman ships from the northern part of the Vale (forgot how it's called). The only port with the proper infrastructure to carry out such amphibious operation is Gulltown. However by now it's autumn (maybe even late autumn) and he would have to travel a considerable distance by ship. All in all the risk is very big (though to be fair, Littlefinger would probably take it). However there is also the problem of how many ships he has. From what we now the Gulltown fleet is the 6th or 7th largest in Westeros after the Ironborn Fleet, the Redwayne fleet, the Velaryon fleet, the Dragonstone fleet, the Royal fleet and maybe even the Shield isles fleet (not anymore though on the last one). All in all I'm not sure his ships would have the capacity to transport even a fraction of the Vale 

The Vale navy is larger than you think. King Mathos Arryn reportedly set sail with 100 warships during the war with the Starks over the Three Sisters and later later the Northmen were able to burn hundreds of ships in Gulltown's harbor. The navy was also strong enough to destroy the Targaryen fleet during the conquest and were able to get Braavosi warships over as well. 

Plus the Manderlys currently have over 23 war galleys. While Wyman's plan is to retrieve Rickon, Sansa Stark married to the Lord of the Eyrie with the Vale supporting her would be a much safer bet. 

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2 hours ago, Gingin said:

My bet is on Big Walder as the ultimate winner of The Twins.

I find that doubtful given that he is 8 or 9. But probably his branch has a good chance, particularly Luthor the Lame seeing as he's the castellan of the Twins.

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If there is a civil war within House Frey, I’m hoping that Perwyn or Olyvar emerges on top somehow.

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14 minutes ago, James Steller said:

I’m hoping that Perwyn or Olyvar emerges on top somehow.

Not them but given that they are probably in Darry, it's fairly probable they'll be alive at the end of the day, as the Frey that are in Derry (the Rosby and Darry Freys if I remember correctly) are the tamest and probably the only ones half of Westeros doesn't dream of them dying every day. Personally I'm hoping that Jinglebells is resurrected and rises to rule the Twins.

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On 2/21/2020 at 10:39 AM, Alyn Oakenfist said:

So the Freys are no. 1 in everybody's hope they die this book list. However when thinking about the succession it's pretty clear that when Walder Frey dies (please GRRM, make it happen soon) there is going to be a civil war. The question is between whom? There are I think several possibilities.

1. If both Edwyn and Black Walder are alive then it's probably going to be a fight between the 2 of them, with Riverrun and Darry supporting whoever they find more convenient (probably not the same guy).

2. Either Edwin or Black Walder dies. Then it's probably going to be a fight between Riverrun vs The Twins.

3. They both die, in which case Luthor the Lame probably executes a palace coup and takes control over the Twins. Again it's The Twins vs Riverrun.

In the end however my bet would be that the winner will be...

Littlefinger. I seriously doubt he will attack the North, especially given that Moat Cailin is in Bolton hands and that he cannot attack it from the North. It's far more likely he will use the civil war to attack the most unpopular house in Westeros, for whom nobody will move a finger. This will also permit him to become Lord Paramount of the Riverlands for real, not only in name, as well as having the 3 important castles in the Riverlands: Harrenhal, Riverrun and the Twins. After smashing the Freys and appointing some new riverlords to positions of power he will have a very loyal power base from which to continue his plans.

They're not on my list.  My list of "hope to die" would be topped by the Lannisters, followed by the Baratheons, Arryns, Greyjoys, and then the Starks.  

For the good of Westeros, it is best for House Frey to continue their control of the bridge and the crossing.  They have done a good job.  They take care of the land and its people.  Just because they slaughtered the Starks and their allies do not mean the Freys deserve the worst.  They have been punished enough by Catelyn Stoneheart.  

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Just now, Mon ami said:

by the Lannisters, followed by the Baratheons, Arryns, Greyjoys, and then the Starks.

Well should all major houses die, Westeros will be so much fun. Probably several hundred mini kingdoms in a state of neverending war.

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10 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Well should all major houses die, Westeros will be so much fun. Probably several hundred mini kingdoms in a state of neverending war.

It is the great houses who are always causing trouble.  House Frey, to the best of my knowledge, has never started a war.  Hating them for what they did to the Starks is not really fair.  They were forced to get involved and then Robb Stark plugs them in the bum.  Tywin gives them a choice.  Sink on the Stark ship or jump ship.  I think we can all agree on this: the Starks do not deserve the loyalty of the Freys.  

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16 minutes ago, Mon ami said:

the Starks do not deserve the loyalty of the Freys

As if they ever had any. As for starting wars, they never did it because they were under the careful watch of stronger houses. A world in which the major houses die is an even bigger clusterfuck then the current story. Imagine how many minor wars would start overnight.

Edited by Alyn Oakenfist

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3 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

As if they ever had any. As for starting wars, they never did it because they were under the careful watch of stronger houses. A world in which the major houses die is an even bigger clusterfuck then the current story. Imagine how many minor wars would start overnight.

We don’t need to imagine, look at the Blackwoods and the Brackens, or the various small houses that caused trouble in “Fire and Blood”. The Peakes, the Coles, the rebellious Dornish houses that produced Vulture kings, the Boltons, the houses that took part in the Dance against the wishes of the Tyrells, etc.

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9 hours ago, CassieSol919 said:

Plus the Manderlys currently have over 23 war galleys. While Wyman's plan is to retrieve Rickon, Sansa Stark married to the Lord of the Eyrie with the Vale supporting her would be a much safer bet. 

The Manderlys have double that, actually. The other ships are hidden up the White Knife.

As far as a Frey civil war goes, I think they will turn on each other as soon as Walder Frey dies. Question is, who else will they might drag into this with them. House Frey is tied by marriage to 27 Houses, 7 of those, they married twice into (although House Whent seems to be be pretty much gone now). Got to wonder if there's going to be some kind of a domino effect.

 

Edited by Alexis-something-Rose

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On 2/22/2020 at 7:47 AM, Gingin said:

My bet is on Big Walder as the ultimate winner of The Twins. 

Word

20 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

, I think they will turn on each other as soon as Walder Frey dies. 

Or before. Little Walder has died already for example. (Looking at you Big Lord Walder) 

Furthermore I dont see it as an outlandish theory that the Late Frey will have an early meeting with the Stranger, courtesy of one of the weasels he calls family. 

 

The civil war has already started. Cersei authorized Qyburn to start the investigation into the RW. Its only a matter of time before the violence starts.

Itll be a tricky war, most of their soldiers are with Jaime or Roose, all in the field. And everyone hates them, or at the least thinks of them as expendable, like Jaime or Roose

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33 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Little Walder has died already for example. (Looking at you Big Lord Walder)

Hard to say who actually did it. We are told that Little Walder was frozen, yet somehow Big Walder has his blood all over him. So it's pretty clear that he knows more then he says. However I find it far more likely that Ramsay did it. It was getting clear that someone is going to get kicked out of the castle, so he orchestrates Little Walder's death in order for the Freys to make a scene, therefore forcing Roose to send them out (hopefully to their deaths). The reason Ramsay would do that is obvious as should Roose suffer some tragic death due to some mysterious reasons (my bet is poisoned by his enemies) then the Frey's could orchestrate a palace coup and place Fat Walda's soon to be born child as Lord Paramount. So they need to be taken out.

39 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Furthermore I dont see it as an outlandish theory that the Late Frey will have an early meeting with the Stranger, courtesy of one of the weasels he calls family. 

Possibly, though calling it an early meeting is a bit of a stretch given that he's 91.

40 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Itll be a tricky war, most of their soldiers are with Jaime or Roose, all in the field. And everyone hates them, or at the least thinks of them as expendable, like Jaime or Roose

That is supposing that someone doesn't intervene. Say someone with an active interest in securing the Riverlands for himself, and for whom the Frey's are local rivals. That someone should however have a good claim on the Riverlands and probably on Riverrun as well as the backing of a true army. Is there such a person? Who knows...

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