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Alyn Oakenfist

The Frey civil war

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The Freys are not going to have a civil war.  Yes, we may read about a succession crisis but it will not escalate to war.  Say what you will but the Freys are a disciplined house.  They were able to organize the red wedding beautifully and carried it out with precision.  Can you see the Baratheons and the Tullys pulling off the same feat?  I don't. 

Big Walder Frey is the future of that house.  That boy is a smart lad.  The succession issue might play for a while until somebody like Lame Lothar takes the high seat. 

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3 hours ago, Quoth the raven, said:

The Freys are not going to have a civil war.  Yes, we may read about a succession crisis but it will not escalate to war.  Say what you will but the Freys are a disciplined house.  They were able to organize the red wedding beautifully and carried it out with precision.  Can you see the Baratheons and the Tullys pulling off the same feat?  I don't. 

Big Walder Frey is the future of that house.  That boy is a smart lad.  The succession issue might play for a while until somebody like Lame Lothar takes the high seat. 

The Red wedding was masterminded by Lothar Frey and Roose Bolton. All the others just followed orders like any other courtier and soldier would do.

Their will defo be a succession crisis when Walder dies, and their will be blood since many other Freys will feel that they deserve the twins more than whomever succeeded old Walder. If Edwyn inherits the Twins, Black Walder has command of a garrison army in seagard. So it is likely that he might take action.

Remember tho that Walder is the one that keeps all his descendants in line. If he dies you have no one respectful enough to keep them on line. Whilst you have Frey branches within the family, those that share the same mother will likely see eachother as close kin and see everyone else as an outsider.

Lothar will feel that he deserves the lordship as its castellan. Him being the brains behind the twins, and also having Walders ear, will make him feel as the rightful heir.

 

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On 2/22/2020 at 10:47 PM, Gingin said:

My bet is on Big Walder as the ultimate winner of The Twins. But I won’t object if one of the eldest Frey ladies gets the castle and becomes Lady of the Crossing, thus starting a new era.

Well, I can't see Roose Bolton staying out of a Frey kinslayfest in fact I think he might have started it. 

Big Walder definitely knows that Lord Bolton is not to be defied, and his bastard is not a reliable protector or ally. He doesn't trust Lord Manderley, but I think he knows it wasn't a merman who killed his cousin. This instictive alertness will help to keep him alive, but his proximity to the leech lord and his place in the sucession (just ahead of his sisters) are working against him. 

Also working against him is his grandfather's fond boasts about how many sons he has. Such hubris about siring an army, so many reasons for his neighbours to hope he lives to see the death of his last male heir, before he is flayed a la Reek.

If Bolton is wearing Frey skins, you will get to see a Lady of the Crossing. Probably just before the Green Fork freezes and the dead army of the White Walkers come upon them.

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12 hours ago, Quoth the raven, said:

The Freys are not going to have a civil war.  Yes, we may read about a succession crisis but it will not escalate to war. 

I agree with this. There is not going to be literal battles between various Frey factions. Nor do i think it will be sustained for that long. There will be less Freys after the succession crisis, but I don't think it will have much effect on their external Frey numbers (amount of troops, population etc.) just their internal numbers (a few branches and/or useless members cut to the wind/dead as a result of the succession challenges).

The Freys, if they are destroyed, and given this is a fantasy novel and they are the most hated House by the fandom, I see this as a strong possibility, will not be done so by their own hands but either by the Others/Brotherhood/Riverland &Northern alliance next spring.

 

9 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

Remember tho that Walder is the one that keeps all his descendants in line.

Kind of true of most Houses with decent sized branches. That does not mean we should assume chaos.

There are a lot of old heads among the Freys, some will be respected and will have a say in the succession line.

My Breakdown of the various branches

  • Ryman Frey branch. Seems almost certain that this branch will end up destroying each other through paranoia if nothing else. Curiously Ryman's wife is the only Frey wife not mentioned in the Appendix. We have no idea who their allies are. Black Walder is unmarried while both his brothers only have a single daughter. There is room for all three sons of Ryman to strengthen their position through marriage.
  • Walton. Pretty much an unknown quantity. Never makes an appearance, nor does either of his sons. His daughter, Fair Walda, was at the Red Wedding though. Given Walton is never mentioned he is either not present, not notable or even more cunning than his brothers. He and his offspring are connected to the Waynwoods and Hardyng's. Which even if Walton is useless, that alone makes him a contender
  • Emmon's branch are unlikely to get involved, having Riverrun is enough. Genna however may play queenmaker, she has one unmarried son and two unmarried grandsons.
  • Aenys is now dead, as is his son Rhaegaer and other son an outlaw. 14 year old heir of the Frey/Royce Branch is unlikely to be a contender. But if he is he should have the support of his Haigh cousins
  • The Frey/Swann branch is no threat. Jared dead, his only son Tytos dead and his only son studying in Oldtown to join his grand uncle, Luceon, in the Faith
  • Crakehall/Frey branch should be a serious challenger. Hosteen is unlikely to return home, meaning his son Arwood will be the ruler of the branch. Married to a Royce, he seems to be somewhat competent the only time we meet him, at Darry in AFFC.  His aunt is married to Lord Vypren, his cousin the nominal ruler of House Darry, two cousins with Waynwood blood and fostered there
  • Frey/Blackwood branch is, like Emmon's branch, be another potential kingmaker rather than inheritor.  The Blackwoods are not going to be supporting Lothar, even if they were strong enough to do so. Lothar being lame is a serious challenge to him winning, as is having no sons but four daughters. However he is married to a Lefford and his sister married to the Lord of Hornvale, the notable Flement Brax. If Jaime disapears Flement is going to be one of the leaders of the Westerland forces still in the Riverlands.
9 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

Lothar will feel that he deserves the lordship as its castellan. Him being the brains behind the twins, and also having Walders ear, will make him feel as the rightful heir.

 

Not a Castellan. I know someone else brought that up in this thread, but he's only a Steward (not even High Steward). He is doing the role of Vayon Poole at House Stark or Utherydes Wayn at Riverrun. I don't think this will make him heir, it's a non military role, but being in charge of the day to day running. The reason why Bowen Marsh needs to support someone like Janos Slynt rather than run himself for Lord Commander is that stewards is not a hugely respected position or particularly powerful.

For me Lothat and Walder Rivers, often seen as a commander within the Frey armies, will have a healthy say in who is made Lord, but won't be competing for the position themselves.

 

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1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

For me Lothat and Walder Rivers, often seen as a commander within the Frey armies, will have a healthy say in who is made Lord, but won't be competing for the position themselves.

Tbh its all down to what black Walder and edwyn do. They both dislike each other and no doubt black Walder would feel entitled to the lordship. If they both start bickering or fighting over the Twins, is likely Lothar would step in, whether he’ll put his own claim through I dont know. 

We will definitely see daggers in the dark. The Frey branches will have a go at each other. And eventually someone is gonna come on top of the succession crisis. It is implied that when Walder dies a lot of Freys are going to be kicked out by the new lord. So we will see the number of Freys living in the twins drastically reduced. 

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15 hours ago, Quoth the raven, said:

They were able to organize the red wedding beautifully and carried it out with precision.

I pretty sure it wasn't supposed to be this red. Like Tywin probably only wanted Robb to die, and everyone else kept as hostage. Why kill so many northmen and alienate the entire North when you can just do surgical strike at the King in the North. The Freys clearly got a bit of blood lust going for them and killed way too many people.

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1 hour ago, The Young Maester said:

 So we will see the number of Freys living in the twins drastically reduced. 

Merret may be an unreliable author in that regard. He is worried about himself because he is the definition of a useless mouth to feed. He's been happy to spend his decades since failing to become a knight being  drunk and now is looking for ways to be useful.

Many of the Freys will be knights and have some kind of use, or have proven themselves in other ways like Lothar who acted as Steward or Symond who seemed to be involved with the Frey finances and served as their Spymaster.

Allowances and 'free rides' will be cut for some of the branches, but I don't see quite the exodus of Freys that Merret was worried about, especially as a decent contingent have moved to Darry. It is actually odd that Merret did not take that option, something tells me his Darry wife made it clear he was not invited.

10 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

I pretty sure it wasn't supposed to be this red. Like Tywin probably only wanted Robb to die, and everyone else kept as hostage.

I don't think Tywin cared or had much of a say in what happened.

10 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

 

Why kill so many northmen

Because Roose needed that to happen to be able to rule the North. He needed a rival army destroyed. He can't return home with half of the Northern army of questionable loyalty.

Inside the Twins the Northern nobles who died were mostly Robb's guard, who were not going to sit back and watch him be killed, this is kind of unavoidable.   The army outside being destroyed would have been Roose's call to make it easier for him to take the North and leave all potential rival Houses weaker.

10 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

 

and alienate the entire North when you can just do surgical strike at the King in the North. The Freys clearly got a bit of blood lust going for them and killed way too many people.

You seem to be ignoring Roose and his 3,500 troops in this.

 

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2 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Because Roose needed that to happen to be able to rule the North. He needed a rival army destroyed. He can't return home with half of the Northern army of questionable loyalty.

Inside the Twins the Northern nobles who died were mostly Robb's guard, who were not going to sit back and watch him be killed, this is kind of unavoidable.   The army outside being destroyed would have been Roose's call to make it easier for him to take the North and leave all potential rival Houses weaker.

Quote

 

and alienate the entire North when you can just do surgical strike at the King in the North. The Freys clearly got a bit of blood lust going for them and killed way too many people.

You seem to be ignoring Roose and his 3,500 troops in this.

I'm not saying that they weren't supposed to kill the troops, I'm talking about the dead nobles. For example the Manderlys who are now the second strongest house in the North and have a massive revenge hard-on to the point of the Frey pies.

It seems to go against Tywin's modus operandi. He seemed to always try and wipe out the rebels and their families (just Robb in this case as everybody else was presumed dead) but spare their bannerman. We actually see him telling this to Joffrey.

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1 hour ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

I'm not saying that they weren't supposed to kill the troops, I'm talking about the dead nobles. For example the Manderlys who are now the second strongest house in the North and have a massive revenge hard-on to the point of the Frey pies.

Only one Manderly noble, and he was part of Robb's honour Guard.

"Robb!" she screamed. She saw Smalljon Umber wrestle a table off its trestles. Crossbow bolts thudded into the wood, one two three, as he flung it down on top of his king. Robin Flint was ringed by Freys, their daggers rising and falling. Ser Wendel Manderly rose ponderously to his feet, holding his leg of lamb. A quarrel went in his open mouth and came out the back of his neck. Ser Wendel crashed forward, knocking the table off its trestles and sending cups, flagons, trenchers, platters, turnips, beets, and wine bouncing, spilling, and sliding across the floor.
Catelyn's back was on fire. I have to reach him. The Smalljon bludgeoned Ser Raymund Frey across the face with a leg of mutton.
 
Manderly is taken down due to him sitting with Robb and being one of his protectors.
1 hour ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

It seems to go against Tywin's modus operandi.

I doubt it had anything to do with Tywin. It seems unlikely he was consulted on whether Wendel lived or died.

If Wendal was sitting elsewhere he may have ended up a hostage, instead he was close by Robb, the target, and the ferocious Smalljon who was not going to sit back as his King was murdered.

1 hour ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

He seemed to always try and wipe out the rebels and their families (just Robb in this case as everybody else was presumed dead) but spare their bannerman. We actually see him telling this to Joffrey.

Again, I think you are overstating Tywin's involvement in the planning of this event or his actual instructions.

This is Walder and Roose's show. Tywin's offering them incentives for doing what they did, and while he's perfectly okay with it, he was not involved in the orchestration or asked for certain people to be killed or not.

Walder, Roose and Tywin are hardly sending out detailed lists of what is about to occur via raven. It would be a broad outline. Tywin fully expected Cat to live. He may have expected more hostages than dead nobles, but it is not important to him.

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On 2/23/2020 at 3:01 PM, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Hard to say who actually did it. We are told that Little Walder was frozen, yet somehow Big Walder has his blood all over him. So it's pretty clear that he knows more then he says. However I find it far more likely that Ramsay did it.

Yea, maybe. So Big is an accomplice at best

On 2/23/2020 at 3:01 PM, Alyn Oakenfist said:

 It was getting clear that someone is going to get kicked out of the castle, so he orchestrates Little Walder's death in order for the Freys to make a scene, therefore forcing Roose to send them out

Idk, thats kinda elaborate. Then again Ramsay is an elaborate dude

On 2/23/2020 at 3:01 PM, Alyn Oakenfist said:

The reason Ramsay would do that is obvious as should Roose suffer some tragic death due to some mysterious reasons (my bet is poisoned by his enemies) then the Frey's could orchestrate a palace coup and place Fat Walda's soon to be born child as Lord Paramount. So they need to be taken out.

Frey needs Bolton. Any one else ruling and Frey is done for, especially themselves. Roose is the glue thats holding the north together, if he were to die Frey would shortly follow. Theyre not exactly popular

On 2/23/2020 at 3:01 PM, Alyn Oakenfist said:

That is supposing that someone doesn't intervene. Say someone with an active interest in securing the Riverlands for himself, and for whom the Frey's are local rivals. That someone should however have a good claim on the Riverlands and probably on Riverrun as well as the backing of a true army. Is there such a person? Who knows...

Who are alluding to, Genna Lannisters husband? 

He's spread too thin as it is, outlaws encircle his personal space like starving mosquitoes. He is in no position to war

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Will it be brains (Lothar and Big Walder) or brawn (Hosteen and Black Walder)?  I like the old goat.  I hope he lives another decade or two.  His children might be better fighters but Walder is a hell of a leader.  His shoes will be hard to fill.

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16 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Who are alluding to, Genna Lannisters husband? 

He's spread too thin as it is, outlaws encircle his personal space like starving mosquitoes. He is in no position to war

Lol no, I'm talking about Littlefinger. He has great claim both as the De Jure Lord Paramount and Lord of Harrenhal, and with him having Sweet Robin and Sansa at his little finger, both with great claims on Riverrun. His theoretical position as Lord Paramount of the Riverlands would be crap if the Freys were to control 3 of the 4 largest castles (Twins, Riverrun and Darry). However taking them from them and maybe granting them to some loyal riverlanders would ensure that the entire Riverlands support him either out of gratitude of killing the Freys or out of gratitude for granting those castles.

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5 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Lol no, I'm talking about Littlefinger. He has great claim both as the De Jure Lord Paramount and Lord of Harrenhal, and with him having Sweet Robin and Sansa at his little finger, both with great claims on Riverrun. His theoretical position as Lord Paramount of the Riverlands would be crap if the Freys were to control 3 of the 4 largest castles (Twins, Riverrun and Darry). However taking them from them and maybe granting them to some loyal riverlanders would ensure that the entire Riverlands support him either out of gratitude of killing the Freys or out of gratitude for granting those castles.

Idk, Jaime did a decent job of momentarily subduing the RL. The populace seems to understand that Petyrs in charge, even if hes absent. And Frey looks at him like the Bolton of the North, the chain holding the rest back (not as strongly) from revenge

The thing about Sansa and Robert is theyre only Riverrun folk if, Frey is defeated, and, Roslin Freys dead before childbirth. Id think its difficult to achieve both of those

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52 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

The thing about Sansa and Robert is theyre only Riverrun folk if, Frey is defeated, and, Roslin Freys dead before childbirth. Id think its difficult to achieve both of those

They both have Tully blood. They may not be the rightful heirs, but they still have a claim.

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6 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Lol no, I'm talking about Littlefinger. He has great claim both as the De Jure Lord Paramount and Lord of Harrenhal, and with him having Sweet Robin and Sansa at his little finger, both with great claims on Riverrun. His theoretical position as Lord Paramount of the Riverlands would be crap if the Freys were to control 3 of the 4 largest castles (Twins, Riverrun and Darry). However taking them from them and maybe granting them to some loyal riverlanders would ensure that the entire Riverlands support him either out of gratitude of killing the Freys or out of gratitude for granting those castles.

None of this would happen in the story.

This make no sense on many levels, LF position as LP of the Riverlands is non-existent because he doesn't control anything there and never will:

1) LF would never go to war in the Riverlands, going to war is not his thing.

2) His position is not really recognized by anyone, so no one in the Riverlands would listen to him unless he gave a show of force and he wouldn't ever do that (see #1),

3) Would they Frey's be rebelling against the Iron Throne? Would all of them, wouldn't at least one of the supposed splintering groups try to stay loyal to the Lannisters? If so, any conquered castles would be up to the Crown to redistribute, not LF.

No one in the Riverlands would ever pay attention to anything LF would do or say, unless it was enforced by the Lannisters, because LF cannot and would not enforce anything by arms himself. 

 

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11 minutes ago, Ser Leftwich said:

No one in the Riverlands would ever pay attention to anything LF would do or say, unless it was enforced by the Lannisters, because LF cannot and would not enforce anything by arms himself. 

Unless he was incredibly popular for say punishing a house everyone hates. And the Lannisters will probably be irrelevant, caught between the Tyrells, the Faith and FAegon.

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18 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Unless he was incredibly popular for say punishing a house everyone hates.

That is kind of a pointless reason to go to war. Wars are costly and unpredictable, especially during winter.

It is idiotic for Littlefinger to take that amount of risk, make himself a public enemy of the crown all in a bid to make friends of people who are technically already his vassals.

18 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

And the Lannisters will probably be irrelevant, caught between the Tyrells, the Faith and FAegon.

How would they be caught between the Tyrells and the Faith? One faction are their allies, the other faction does not actually have an army while the Westerlands currently does have an army in the Riverlands.

 

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2 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

How would they be caught between the Tyrells and the Faith? One faction are their allies, the other faction does not actually have an army while the Westerlands currently does have an army in the Riverlands.

Well the division between Lannisters and Tyrells is probably reaching breaking point now that Cersei's back in charge, and with the impending trials they are clearly no longer allies. For now they have aligning interests, however that is bound to change, especially after Stormlands Agincourt.

As for the Sparrows, they have several thousand Poor Fellows in city not to mention the hundreds of thousand of pious followers of the seven in the city. Remember the city rebellion in the Dance of the Dragons, there are strong chances it will happen again, especially if FAegon comes knocking.

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Edwyn is the heir and has control of I think 2,000 men at Riverrun (all spearmen/levies tho, iirc, no knights). Black Walder, who has a mutually spiteful relationship with Edwyn, controls a garrison as Seaguard, one of the relatively untouched and more powerful Riverlords remaining, and is (debatably) next in line after his bro. Those two will absolutely go at each other when Old Walder dies.

Meanwhile, Emmon may feel (prompted by Genna, of course) that being Lord Walders son is a better claim than great-grandson. Controlling Riverrun, marriage ties to the Lannisters and familial proxity may prove enough to encourage a third side. That is if the Frey's in Riverrun haven't been Red Weddinged by Stoneheart already.

After that there are no Frey's close enough to justifiably stake a claim. Oh some may try but they'll have little support and be put down quickly. There will be at most three, perhaps four, major sides in this (if it happens). The potential fourth of course, is Lothar. He is the Castellan of the Twins and has literal proximity to Walder. He's by far the cleverest Frey, at least so far as we've seen and I wouldn't be suprised to see him take steps to suppress the knowledge of Walder's death for a bit in order to prepare a move. Whether that move would be to support either Edwyn or Black Walder, put forth his own chosen candidate or take the castle for himself, I don't know.

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The matter can ordinarily be handled with strong input from the ruler and the lord paramount.  Both are weak in this case; and so the contest may be long and bloody.  

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