Jump to content

If Ashara =Lemore, what's the sequence of events?


Buried Treasure

Recommended Posts

I am far from convinced that Lemore is Ashara, but if she is I'd be interested in exploring her personal timeline.

Ned visited Ashara with Arthur's sword. Any news he gave her might conceivably given her cause to take her life (deaths of people she loved, her love stealing her child to take to live with his wife etc). It seems unlikely he knew anything that would cause her fake her death.

Ashara soon after supposedly leapt to her death. In this world it is a possibility that she did actually jump, survive, and wash up somewhere - but near drowning usually has a cost and changes one profoundly, as with Patchface or Damphair. So it would be more likely she faked her death with some stuffed clothes or the like.

My presumption would then be that Varys sent her a message that have her reason to fake her own death. The obvious justification is that 'Aegon' was to be raised secretly and that Ashara was willing to help -  either because she believed he was her friend Elia's child, or through other baby swapping shenanigans he was her own child.

Varys would then have taken Ashara to Essos, probably to Illyrio's manse where she became Lemore. This was soon after the war and several years before Jon C was brought in. That's interesting; JonCon truly believes this is Aegon but could be wrong as he was handed a 6-year old. Lemore could have seen this Aegon possibly only a few months after last seeing the Aegon in KL, she may be the source of the reader learning the truth of whether this Aegon is Rhaegar's true heir or a fake.

Also if interest to me is that although JonCon is a father figure to Aegon, Lemore is not presented as a mother figure. Why is that when she has seemingly been with the child for longer? When Aegon was an infant Illyrio world have had slaves and servants to act as nursemaid, was Serra in the mother-role so that there was no place for Lemore? Or has Lemore always kept her distance to prevent herself getting to hurt by her attachment to this child they are using? Perhaps between the manse  and the riverboat Griff and YG spent time lining in some small town and Lemore didn't fit their cover so wasn't always with them? Thoughts?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Buried Treasure said:

I am far from convinced that Lemore is Ashara, but if she is I'd be interested in exploring her personal timeline.

Ned visited Ashara with Arthur's sword. Any news he gave her might conceivably given her cause to take her life (deaths of people she loved, her love stealing her child to take to live with his wife etc).

I doubt it greatly. The only thing we have to indicate that is Barristan's musings, where he literally is just throwing out possibilities because he just doesn't have a clue.

10 hours ago, Buried Treasure said:

It seems unlikely he knew anything that would cause her fake her death.

Agreed

10 hours ago, Buried Treasure said:

Ashara soon after supposedly leapt to her death. In this world it is a possibility that she did actually jump, survive, and wash up somewhere - but near drowning usually has a cost and changes one profoundly, as with Patchface or Damphair. So it would be more likely she faked her death with some stuffed clothes or the like.

I don't believe there is any indication that even that much was required. There are no actual reports by people who know saying what happened or what is known vs the general story.
Four people who weren't there (Barristan, Ned Dayne, Harwin and Cersei) say or agree "she threw herself into the sea" or a close variant, but they can only know what they have been told. We have heard from no one who was there. We don;t even know that there was an eye witness.
Disappearing and leaving a note would do the trick. Then the Daynes tell whatever story they want to to everyone else - whether they know the truth or not.
SSM

Quote

We were repeatedly told that Ashara Dayne threw herself into the sea. I wonder how this is known for sure. Was her body ever found?

No.

Notice he didn't answer if she actually threw herself into the sea, just that no body was found.

10 hours ago, Buried Treasure said:

My presumption would then be that Varys sent her a message that have her reason to fake her own death. The obvious justification is that 'Aegon' was to be raised secretly and that Ashara was willing to help -  either because she believed he was her friend Elia's child, or through other baby swapping shenanigans he was her own child.

Agreed.

I suspect this happened before or during, and independently of, Ned's visit to Starfall. 
I suspect its a rather fortunate coincidence for both parties to hide their secrets that the ship carrying (f)Aegon from KL to Essos arrived at Starfall about the same time as Ned was there or had just left. If you give a little time for the chaos in KL to settle down so that (f)Aegon can be smuggled out, the timing probably works out pretty right as well.
I see two independent sort of conspiracies accidentally helping to hide each other.

10 hours ago, Buried Treasure said:

Varys would then have taken Ashara to Essos, probably to Illyrio's manse where she became Lemore. This was soon after the war and several years before Jon C was brought in.

Agreed (all agreeds being "mostly likely").

10 hours ago, Buried Treasure said:

That's interesting; JonCon truly believes this is Aegon but could be wrong as he was handed a 6-year old.

Indeed. One would expect him to probably require some convincing, no matter how much he might want to believe, beyond the word of Varys or Illyrio. Ashara, being Elia's former companion and Arthur's sister, would be well suited to convince him

10 hours ago, Buried Treasure said:

Lemore could have seen this Aegon possibly only a few months after last seeing the Aegon in KL, she may be the source of the reader learning the truth of whether this Aegon is Rhaegar's true heir or a fake.

Indeed. 
And she may not actually know the truth.
She could well have been fooled by the Pisswater brat. She also may not have seen baby Aegon for 6 months or more - possibly around half his lifetime.

10 hours ago, Buried Treasure said:

Also if interest to me is that although JonCon is a father figure to Aegon, Lemore is not presented as a mother figure. Why is that when she has seemingly been with the child for longer?

Thats pretty obvious I think. Lemore is officially a nobody with no status or wealth. Raising him as JonCon's son has many advantages, and JonCon and Lemore are not an item and never were, so if he's JonCon's then he can't be hers.

10 hours ago, Buried Treasure said:

When Aegon was an infant Illyrio world have had slaves and servants to act as nursemaid, was Serra in the mother-role so that there was no place for Lemore?

Its probably she played the mother role early on, but the conspiracy has moved past that stage well before we meet them. I doubt Serra had any relevance at all, if Lemore-Ashara is correct.
I think a young man Aegon's age, believing himself royalty and Lemore not his family, would have no trouble relieving himself of mother-role-baggage (I can't think what else to call it sorry)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My answer to this is simply that Lemore is not Ashara.   She is Mellario of Norvos, descendant of the Blackfyre line, daughter of Illyrio and Serra, wife of Doran Martell, and mother of Young Griff.  Young Griff was originally Quentyn Martell, but got baby-swapped at age 3 with his nephew (the real Aegon).   We first meet Lemore on the Valyrian road that runs between Pentos and Norvos, at the halfway point where it meets the Rhoyne tributary.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think that Ashara did faked her death, though she is not Lemore, her current name could be Jyana Reed, while Lemore's real name, in my opinion, is Jeyne Swann, and she is fAegon's mother (the father is Barristan Selmy, whose mother possibly was Aenys Blackfyres' daughter or some other Blackfyre girl).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, corbon said:

I doubt it greatly. The only thing we have to indicate that is Barristan's musings, where he literally is just throwing out possibilities because he just doesn't have a clue.

Until we met Lemore and started to speculate on her identity, I never doubted that Ashara was in fact dead by suicide. The question was to why; the suggestion from GoT was that the news was her brother's death, which smacks of narrative red herring and opened the door to speculating on her having had a child or lover, long before we got Barristan's POV.

If you are doubting that any news Ned unwittingly gave her could have led to suicidal grief, does that mean you are all in on her being alive? I am merely at the point of thinking A=L is plausible, without ruling out the option she killed herself.

14 hours ago, corbon said:

I suspect its a rather fortunate coincidence for both parties to hide their secrets that the ship carrying (f)Aegon from KL to Essos arrived at Starfall about the same time as Ned was there or had just left. If you give a little time for the chaos in KL to settle down so that (f)Aegon can be smuggled out, the timing probably works out pretty right as well.

We can drop the 'f' if supposing that a ship from KL carried the kid, can't we? That would definitely be the same Aegon with Elia as a baby. 

I don't buy that he would be shipped from KL to Pentos via Done, it's must be triple the sea journey versus the direct route. Ashara would be a bonus to the plot, and not even guaranteed to join it until a message had reached her, and if Aegon was saved then the priority would have been getting him to safety with Illyrio. I was thinking more along the lines of a ship with regular trade to Starfall having a paid informant of Varys who slipped Ashara a note. Though your point on the fortuitous timing is well made.

2 hours ago, Platypus Rex said:

My answer to this is simply that Lemore is not Ashara.   She is Mellario of Norvos, descendant of the Blackfyre line, daughter of Illyrio and Serra, wife of Doran Martell, and mother of Young Griff.  Young Griff was originally Quentyn Martell, but got baby-swapped at age 3 with his nephew (the real Aegon).   We first meet Lemore on the Valyrian road that runs between Pentos and Norvos, at the halfway point where it meets the Rhoyne tributary.

Well I was laying out the L=A timeline not because I believe it has to be so, but to establish if it is plausible. There are a lot of details that come down to it's possible or it's likely, but for the most part it is a theory that works without building on a foundation of sand, and there is a simple clear motive for why Ashara would fake her death to care for this child.

How would the detail of the timeline for your theory break down? I would be immediately doubtful that Illyrio could have a daughter of Lemore's age and apparant education. And what motive can you give that justify the Martells messing around with the identity of their trueborn children?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Buried Treasure said:

Until we met Lemore and started to speculate on her identity, I never doubted that Ashara was in fact dead by suicide.

I'm pretty sure it was considered a suspicious death before ADwD came out. 
All these people saying she threw herself into the sea, and assuming it was from Ned's visit, but none of them were anywhere near the actual event and Ned not thinking of her at all didn't add up. 
GRRM's confirmation that no body was found was in 2000, not long after ASoS was published.

1 minute ago, Buried Treasure said:

The question was to why; the suggestion from GoT was that the news was her brother's death, which smacks of narrative red herring and opened the door to speculating on her having had a child or lover, long before we got Barristan's POV.

Thats was from Cersei, and was explicitly second hand. Cersei also clearly had no clues why and was just throwing ideas at Ned in an attempt to get him.

The brother idea was always silly. Arthur was a KG, his life dedicated to the King, and expected to die in service. 
Ned brought back Dawn, when he didn't need to, which was an enormous, enormous service to the Daynes - without Dawn their entire history and family legend, even their sigil, becomes meaningless.

1 minute ago, Buried Treasure said:

If you are doubting that any news Ned unwittingly gave her could have led to suicidal grief, does that mean you are all in on her being alive? I am merely at the point of thinking A=L is plausible, without ruling out the option she killed herself.

There isn't much that I rule out - everything changes each time we get a new book and new information.
But no, I think there is very little chance of Ashara being actually dead. 

1 minute ago, Buried Treasure said:

We can drop the 'f' if supposing that a ship from KL carried the kid, can't we? That would definitely be the same Aegon with Elia as a baby. 

Its a useful identifier that helps separate the Aegons. I put brackets around it to show that I'm not clear or indicating whether hes fake or real.

I don't understand what you mean about with Elia.
I find the Pisswater Prince story entirely plausible, but equally any 'substitution' could have happened before or after the murders. And Elia isn;t really relevant to figuring out when/if such a substitution happened.

1 minute ago, Buried Treasure said:

I don't buy that he would be shipped from KL to Pentos via Done, it's must be triple the sea journey versus the direct route.

Smuggling doesn't always take the direct route. 
Baby Aegon isn't Tyrion, who can be just shipped in a barrel, so to speak. He needs a minder, a mother figure maybe, a nanny at worst. .
Maybe they were on different ships, but I don't see any problem with Aegon going 'the wrong way' initialy to help the deception, and to get to the mother/nanny faster.

1 minute ago, Buried Treasure said:

Ashara would be a bonus to the plot, and not even guaranteed to join it until a message had reached her, and if Aegon was saved then the priority would have been getting him to safety with Illyrio.

Well, her character and disposition would be already well known. She was Elia's companion. Her brother was Rhaegar's closest companion as well. Its highly likely she would be extremely receptive to the plot, especially if her own child was already lost. 
As to Aegon's safety, I think once on ship out of KL, he's relatively safe. I would put priority over getting him the right sort of companion, rather than getting him to Essos.

1 minute ago, Buried Treasure said:

I was thinking more along the lines of a ship with regular trade to Starfall having a paid informant of Varys who slipped Ashara a note. Though your point on the fortuitous timing is well made.

Thats possible too.
I just think of the 'leapt into the sea' story and 'no body found' and can easily see a ship waiting her her offshore.
And then, Lemore's a swimmer...

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, Buried Treasure said:

Well I was laying out the L=A timeline not because I believe it has to be so, but to establish if it is plausible. There are a lot of details that come down to it's possible or it's likely, but for the most part it is a theory that works without building on a foundation of sand, and there is a simple clear motive for why Ashara would fake her death to care for this child.

If you are operating on that premise, I don't see any reason why you should not be able to work out any number of possible timelines. 

Quote

How would the detail of the timeline for your theory break down?

I like to keep theories simple, without adding a host of speculative detail.  But I would be happy to address any specific timeline objections you may have

Quote

I would be immediately doubtful that Illyrio could have a daughter of Lemore's age and apparant education.

I don't see any problem with a 70+ year old man having a 40+ year old daughter.  What is there to suggest that Illyrio is younger than this?

Quote

And what motive can you give that justify the Martells messing around with the identity of their trueborn children?

Oberon murdered Lord Yronwood, an important border-ally of Doran.  Doran needed to maintain the loyalty of the next Lord Yronwood.  The "blood price" that the new Lord Yronwood demanded, was Doran's son Quentyn, for fostering.  But Mellario did not want to be separated from her young son.  Doran and Mellario had a fight about it, that Arianne overheard.   All this is straight from the book.  

A secret baby-swap would keep both his wife and his vassal happy.

Another possible motive is more speculative, but fits the theory.  Doran secretly had custody of his nephew, the Baby Aegon, who he ultimately hoped to place on the throne, and use as a standard bearer, when he took vengeance on his Lannister enemies.  However, as time passed, his nephew grew to look less and less like a Targaryen, and more like a Martell, while his son grew to look more like a Targaryen.   When a secret Targaryen emerges from the shadows after a gap of many years, he needs to look the part.  Otherwise, who will believe that he is who he claims?

And of course, why would Doran necessarily want to put his nephew on the throne, when he could put his son there instead?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, corbon said:

Its a useful identifier that helps separate the Aegons. I put brackets around it to show that I'm not clear or indicating whether hes fake or real.

I don't understand what you mean about with Elia.
I find the Pisswater Prince story entirely plausible, but equally any 'substitution' could have happened before or after the murders. And Elia isn;t really relevant to figuring out when/if such a substitution happened.

I'll use the term fAegon too, when talking about Young Griff. I was trying to make the point that I think it is unnecessary here. Either the babe smuggled from KL circa the Sack was Aegon, or there was no child smuggled out at all. If Varys did fail to enact a switch he would have procured his pretender later in Essos not at that time from KL.

I too think the story of the tanner's son from Pisswater Bend being switched with Aegon and killed by Gregor is plausible. If Varys succeeded in any switch I think that is how it happened.

I used the term 'the Aegon with Elia as a baby' only because I am not willing to talk about 'the trueborn Aegon'. Because I am not 100% convinced the baby she brought from Dragonstone was the trueborn child of Rhaegar - but that is a different theory and not entitlely relevant to L = A.

    

1 hour ago, corbon said:

Smuggling doesn't always take the direct route. 
Baby Aegon isn't Tyrion, who can be just shipped in a barrel, so to speak. He needs a minder, a mother figure maybe, a nanny at worst. .
Maybe they were on different ships, but I don't see any problem with Aegon going 'the wrong way' initialy to help the deception, and to get to the mother/nanny faster.

We may need a logistics expert to chip in on sailing journey times, I know the forum has people that have number of days journey from one place to another figured out, but it is not me. From my brief check of the maps, it would take more days to get to Starfall than Pentos, so sending Aegon  to Ashara in Dorne would have actually delayed him getting a guardian, and he would still have needed a nursemaid out of KL.

There are alternatives that could have put Aegon in Dorne - perhaps Varys himself was guardian to smuggle him out, and diverted via Dorne to recruit Ashara in person? Again, this world come back to the logistics of how many days that would take him out of the city.

Or how do you feel about the possibility of Elia and Varys arranging the pisswater switch earlier than the Sack, for the purpose of sneaking Aegon away from court without Aerys knowing, so that Ashara could have taken him from KL and had him hidden at Starfall even whilst Ned was there? (Though it would dash your theory that she jumped and swam, can't do that with a babe in tow :D).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Buried Treasure said:

I'll use the term fAegon too, when talking about Young Griff. I was trying to make the point that I think it is unnecessary here. Either the babe smuggled from KL circa the Sack was Aegon, or there was no child smuggled out at all. If Varys did fail to enact a switch he would have procured his pretender later in Essos not at that time from KL.

I don;t see why the Pisswater brat story can't work as a replacement should Varys have somehow have failed to make the switch in time. WHether the PWB was procured before or after the sack could both work IMO.

I would think it would be better to have a trail that leads back to the baby coming from KL than merely appearing in Essos directly.

Hence one of the reasons I would think it would work better to take the babe from KL to Starfall to pick up Ashara (or pick up Ashara and take her to KL or nearby and have the babe join her

1 hour ago, Buried Treasure said:

We may need a logistics expert to chip in on sailing journey times, I know the forum has people that have number of days journey from one place to another figured out, but it is not me. From my brief check of the maps, it would take more days to get to Starfall than Pentos, so sending Aegon  to Ashara in Dorne would have actually delayed him getting a guardian, and he would still have needed a nursemaid out of KL.

For me it snot the physical logistics of travel times that matter, its the believability index.
I think its much harder to convince Ashara if you tell her Aegon is will meet her in Essos, than if you either send teh baby to her, directly from his escape (with time to smuggle through the cordon etc) or take her to KL.
In other words, an Aegon baby from KL is much more believable for her than an Aegon baby from Essos.
She has to believe, right or wrong, if she is to convince JonCon and others later.

1 hour ago, Buried Treasure said:

There are alternatives that could have put Aegon in Dorne - perhaps Varys himself was guardian to smuggle him out, and diverted via Dorne to recruit Ashara in person? Again, this world come back to the logistics of how many days that would take him out of the city.

No, for me logistics are GRRMs achilles heel, so it doesn't pay to look at them too closely, just to know that 'rough enough' is good enough. 

1 hour ago, Buried Treasure said:

Or how do you feel about the possibility of Elia and Varys arranging the pisswater switch earlier than the Sack, for the purpose of sneaking Aegon away from court without Aerys knowing, so that Ashara could have taken him from KL and had him hidden at Starfall even whilst Ned was there? (Though it would dash your theory that she jumped and swam, can't do that with a babe in tow :D).

Its not impossible, but I don't see any real evidence, or even suggestion, for it.

My theory is not that she jumped at all, or even necessarily swam. I think a small boat from a private jetty would work, with a note, or, similarly, swimming from shore out to a rowboat from a sea-going ship, after leaving a note, or just leaving an open window at the tower top and some kicked off shoes or a discarded robe etc.
There are any number of ways it could go down.
My real point is that there is no actual evidence that we know of that anyone actually jumped from the tower - just hearsay from a bunch of people who weren't there who have obviously heard the same story - which obviously comes from the Dayne family and could easily be entirely invented, the best understanding of the truth they have, or even, possibly, the actual truth as seen by real eyewitnesses (I just doubt that one greatly)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I suspect the Pisswater Prince was the Stupid Prince and Ashara's Stolen Child. 

Quote

And when the pisswater prince was safely dead, the eunuch smuggled you across the narrow sea to his fat friend the cheesemonger, who hid you on a poleboat and found an exile lord willing to call himself your father.

Quote

he sang about some stupid lady throwing herself off some stupid tower because her stupid prince was dead.

Quote

Or was it the grieving sister, the Lady Ashara? She threw herself into the sea, I'm told. Why was that? For the brother you slew, or the child you stole?

It seems unlikely that Varys would request the presence of Ashara/Lemore after sacrificing her child. 

Arya's instinct may be a clue to why she is there.

Quote

The lady should go kill the ones who killed her prince.

She may consider Aegon(Young Griff) innocent, but she may wish to use him, in order to get to the people that switched him with her child. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Narsil4 said:

It seems unlikely that Varys would request the presence of Ashara/Lemore after sacrificing her child. 

Indeed. The two theories are more or less mutually incompatible.

I've never really seen any evidence reasonably supporting that Ashara's child was ever relevant to any baby switch in KL, other than theoretical ideas by fans which rely on incorrect facts and make no sense.
For instance, its necessary to invent a theoretical, un-evidenced relationship between Ashara and Rhaegar (or Ashara and Aerys) in order to get Ashara to have a Targaryen-looking child suitable for a baby swap with Aegon. In which case why on earth would Ashara be looking to a Stark after her disgrace at Harrenhal?

2 hours ago, Narsil4 said:

She may consider Aegon(Young Griff) innocent, but she may wish to use him, in order to get to the people that switched him with her child. 

Its been close now to 20 years She's had ample time to get to Illyrio, if not Varys, by now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, corbon said:

Ashara and Aerys

My suspicion is that Aerys raped her at Harrenhal.

2 hours ago, corbon said:

In which case why on earth would Ashara be looking to a Stark after her disgrace at Harrenhal?

She may have fallen in love with Ned and decided to go to him for help afterwards. 

Quote

My aunt Allyria says Lady Ashara and your father fell in love at Harrenhal—

Ned's problem with Jamie may have more to do with not getting to kill Aerys himself. 

2 hours ago, corbon said:

Its been close now to 20 years She's had ample time to get to Illyrio, if not Varys, by now.

True, it seems possible she only recently learned of Aegon's location. It might be that she feels some need to try and protect Aegon and Varys leveraged that. If he knows her true identity. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ashara parallels Gillie.  She had to give up her baby, Jon, in order to take the royal baby, Griff, to safety.  Ned and her loyalty to the Targaryens motivated her to do this.  Jon Snow would later repeat Ned's decision and force Gillie to take the baby with king's blood away to safety.  Gillie agrees to do this to protect baby Rayder.  Ashara takes the role of a soiled septa.  Who knows what disguise Gillie will take.  Does she tell baby Rayder the truth?  Obviously, Ashara cannot ever claim motherhood of Griff.  That would ruin his claim.  For the same reason, Gillie might reveal the truth to the child in her care because she is a wildling at heart.  She may feel loyalty to Mance as she matures and want the baby to know his real father.  Anyway, I'm thinking Ashara was also at the tower.  The trip to Starfall is partly true.  They needed to return the sword.  But Ashara was already present.  Think about it.  Wylla is a serving woman for the Daynes.  Did Wylla just happen to be at the Tower?  Why, when her mistress is not there.  The answer is, Ashara was also at the Tower and carrying a child.  Wylla was at the Tower, helping to nurse Ashara's bastard.  Lyanna pumps out another child and poor Wylla's milk udders now had to support two little suckers.  

Dorne is the only way out of Westeros.  The rebels controlled the way east.  The ports at KL is out of the question.  Where else could they go?  Oldtown is out of the question.  Which direction can they go, where they will not run into any of the rebels?  South.  The trip to return the sword was partly true but it had another purpose.  To get Griff to safety in Essos.  So Griff is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna.  Jon is the son of Ashara and Brandon.  Jon is older than the lie make him out to be.  Even old maester Leuwyn noticed and suspected, thus he had to come up with some halfass reason.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, Prince Rhaego's Soul said:

Ashara parallels Gillie.

Oh, good call. I didn't really consider that. 
Though I do wonder how close these events are supposed to parallel each other. 

It would seem to suggest that Ashara(Gilly) may have semi-willingly agreed to the swap.   

20 hours ago, Prince Rhaego's Soul said:

Anyway, I'm thinking Ashara was also at the tower.

I suspect Ashara may have given birth to Dany at the ToJ. 

Quote

The Lady Ashara Dayne, tall and fair, with haunting violet eyes.

Quote

Daenerys has the same eyes. Sometimes when the queen looked at him, he felt as if he were looking at Ashara's daughter …

Quote

I am Daenerys Stormborn

Quote

A storm of rose petals blew across a blood-streaked sky

With past events perhaps suggesting she would have given birth to twins. 

Quote

She bore him a bastard only a fortnight before another set of twins—a stillborn boy and a girl, Daenerys, who survived—were delivered by Queen Naerys.

Perhaps this would have been his name. 

Quote

the first Daenerys, the Targaryen princess who was sister to King Daeron

Daenerys and Daeron, the bastard offspring of Ashara and Aerys. 

20 hours ago, Prince Rhaego's Soul said:

The trip to Starfall is partly true.  They needed to return the sword.  But Ashara was already present.

Yea, it seems likely the love the Daynes have for Ned isn't just from returning the sword, but also Ashara and perhaps her remaining child. 

20 hours ago, Prince Rhaego's Soul said:

So Griff is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna.  Jon is the son of Ashara and Brandon.

I'm thinking..   

Elia + Oberyn = Rhaenys(Smells Dornish)
Elia + Rhaegar = Aegon(Young Griff)  
Dalla + Rhaegar(Mance) = Aemon(One More)
Lyanna(KotLT/Fisherman's Daughter) + Robert = Jon(King under the Snow) 
Lyanna(Jyana) + Howland = Meera, Jojen(Lyanna Dies?)
Ashara(Wylla/Lemore) + Aerys = Daenerys & Daeron(Aegon Decoy) 
Rhaella + Aerys = Stillborn or maybe Quaithe?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, Prince Rhaego's Soul said:

Ashara parallels Gillie.  She had to give up her baby, Jon, in order to take the royal baby, Griff, to safety.  Ned and her loyalty to the Targaryens motivated her to do this.  Jon Snow would later repeat Ned's decision and force Gillie to take the baby with king's blood away to safety.  Gillie agrees to do this to protect baby Rayder.  Ashara takes the role of a soiled septa.  Who knows what disguise Gillie will take.  Does she tell baby Rayder the truth?  Obviously, Ashara cannot ever claim motherhood of Griff.  That would ruin his claim.  For the same reason, Gillie might reveal the truth to the child in her care because she is a wildling at heart.  She may feel loyalty to Mance as she matures and want the baby to know his real father.  Anyway, I'm thinking Ashara was also at the tower.  The trip to Starfall is partly true.  They needed to return the sword.  But Ashara was already present.  Think about it.  Wylla is a serving woman for the Daynes.  Did Wylla just happen to be at the Tower?  Why, when her mistress is not there.  The answer is, Ashara was also at the Tower and carrying a child.  Wylla was at the Tower, helping to nurse Ashara's bastard.  Lyanna pumps out another child and poor Wylla's milk udders now had to support two little suckers.  

Dorne is the only way out of Westeros.  The rebels controlled the way east.  The ports at KL is out of the question.  Where else could they go?  Oldtown is out of the question.  Which direction can they go, where they will not run into any of the rebels?  South.  The trip to return the sword was partly true but it had another purpose.  To get Griff to safety in Essos.  So Griff is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna.  Jon is the son of Ashara and Brandon.  Jon is older than the lie make him out to be.  Even old maester Leuwyn noticed and suspected, thus he had to come up with some halfass reason.  

This is basically the Order of the Greenhand's theory, and it's terrible. The motivation for Jon's Dalla-Gilly baby swap is clear:

  1. Jon tells Gilly that Dalla's son is at risk of being given to Melisandre's flames.
  2. Gilly requests that she take both babies away with her.
  3. Jon explains that she can't do that because then the Queen's Men will hunt her down and burn all 3 of them.
  4. So the baby swap works because Melisandre and the Queen's Men are expecting 1 baby to stay at Castle Black, but they aren't sure which baby is which.

In contrast, the Order of the Greenhand's baby swap is completely gratuitous and unnecessary. If the objective is to protect "R+L=YG," then why is a baby swap needed at all? Just give "R+L=YG" to Howland Reed, who

  • lives in the North
  • in a castle that moves
  • with no maester, knights, or master-at-arms

Simple and safe. Ned can even visit his "nephew" from time-to-time on the pretext of talking to an old friend/vassal.

 

The only reason for the YG + Jon baby swap is that the Order of the Greenhand needs a way to get "R+L=YG" from Dorne to Essos. The swap is just a conceit to make their headcanon work, nothing more.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/22/2020 at 2:11 PM, Buried Treasure said:

My presumption would then be that Varys sent her a message that have her reason to fake her own death. The obvious justification is that 'Aegon' was to be raised secretly and that Ashara was willing to help -  either because she believed he was her friend Elia's child, or through other baby swapping shenanigans he was her own child.

I don't think the idea of Varys getting involved this early is likely is supported by the text.  If Ashara faked her death it would have to be part of the plot with Eddard to hide Lyanna's baby / protect Targaryen children.  Why else would Ned forbid any mention of her name?  No, secrecy about her in particular is tied to the ToJ mystery.  

If she became Lemore, something I used to think likely, but more and more I question it, then I would think she went into hiding as part of Eddard's plan to protect Viserys and Dany.  Dany, though, I believe to have been placed separately form Viserys, in a house with a red door in the countryside.  Perhaps A=L was living in an adjacent house as a neighbor, a la Arabella Figg ...  There's a small chance she was with Viserys (EDIT, in Braavos), though. 

Either way, I believe that Varys/Illyrio's plan to hide Aegon away happened around the same time as when Dany was taken from Dorne and placed with or reunited with Viserys.  This probably also coincided with Dorne's plot (fake or not) to betroth Viserys to Arianne.  That is likely when Lemore, JonCon, and Walys Flowers = Maester Walys = Haldon Halfmaester were pressed into service with Young Griff.  I am not sure if Yasilla and Yandry joined them then or later. 

I suppose there is also a possibility that A=L had been with those others among the Golden company.  There is also a very small chance that House Whent (think Oswell and his 3 nephews = House Kettleblack, who seem to have fought with the free companies) had a part in her getting there.  

Either way, at the time that Dany was taken from the house with the red door (part of Illyrio's "years of planning"), would be when Ashara was convinced by these 2 that Aegon was Elia and Rhaegar's child.   

What I can't figure out in any of this, is what happened to her child.  With B+A=J / R+L=D, her babe is Jon, but with the consensus R+L=J, babes from other houses need to get involved.  The only way she was put with Young Griff earlier is if she's actually the mother.  I am not really on board with this.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

I don't think the idea of Varys getting involved this early is likely is supported by the text. 

If Ashara is Lemore, the  it is. VArys tells us of the Pisswater Prince plot, and that Aegon, whom Lemore has been with for a long time, possibly right from the start.
And Ashara is already close to Aegon, even if she never met him. She was companion to his mother and her brother was his fathers best friend.

6 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

If Ashara faked her death it would have to be part of the plot with Eddard to hide Lyanna's baby / protect Targaryen children. 

Yes, the plot to protect (f)Aegon, whom she believes to gbe real, right or wrong.

6 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

Why else would Ned forbid any mention of her name? 

Read it carefully. Ashara wasn't his focus, Jon was, explicitly.

6 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

No, secrecy about her in particular is tied to the ToJ mystery.  

Ashara has more connections than ToJ (in fact,s he doesn't have any direct connection to ToJ, except her brother was there).

6 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

If she became Lemore, something I used to think likely, but more and more I question it, then I would think she went into hiding as part of Eddard's plan to protect Viserys and Dany. 

Err, what?

6 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

What I can't figure out in any of this, is what happened to her child.  With B+A=J / R+L=D, her babe is Jon, but with the consensus R+L=J, babes from other houses need to get involved. 

Nope. No other babes involved. Jon is nothing to do with her, Aegon is her involvement, her own child either died or was claimed as her mother's, her sister Allyria (something not unknown in our world).

6 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

 The only way she was put with Young Griff earlier is if she's actually the mother.  I am not really on board with this.  

There is no reason she wouldn't be with YG if she really believes he is Aegon. She doesn;t have her own child, one way or another, shewas firends with his mother, loyal to his family, her brother was close friends with his father, she as the single most natural person in Westeros to take over his care as part of a plot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, corbon said:

If Ashara is Lemore, the  it is.

Only under the assumptions you and OP make.  My scenario would make it not the case.  OP did ask for how we all think it could happen.  

19 hours ago, corbon said:

Read it carefully. Ashara wasn't his focus, Jon was, explicitly.

I have, many times.  Clearly, that he tells Catelyn to never "ask me about Jon," so I agree that you are right in that, at least.  However, he forbids mention of her name, so to further conclude that Ashara wasn't part of his focus is presumptive IMO.  Further, my reading of it is that if the anecdote were ONLY to illustrate how he wanted protect Jon, then forbidding "that name" is counterproductive.  That people in the realm (Cersei, for instance) think Jon to be Ashara Dayne's son makes it a good alibi.  Forbidding mention of the (presumably fake) mother's name is counter to this alibi, yet Ned is adamant about it. 

That is partly why I think her name is forbidden for some secret that we don't yet understand about the ToJ and any conspiracies between Eddard, any ToJ survivors and House Dayne. I do not think that Varys was involved in that conspiracy until he learned about it much later, at which time he may have acted to have Dany removed from the house with the red door (the one in Dorne with the lemon tree outside her window) when she was 4 a toddler, not when she was an infant.  Something political caused that to happen, so that is why I think he was involved in that.  If you believe that the house with the red door was in Braavos, just tell me now so we can either argue this, or if you are firmly convinced, then I can just stop now, and avoid that frustration.

19 hours ago, corbon said:

Nope. No other babes involved.

What I meant was that neither Dany or Jon would be Ashara's child, as some people still believe.  If her child survived it would be someone else. Allyria, who you mention (thx for reminding me of her), would fit that definition.  No other babes being involved would mean her child really was a stillbirth, which is also possible, of course.

19 hours ago, corbon said:

There is no reason she wouldn't be with YG if she really believes he is Aegon. She doesn't have her own child, one way or another, shewas firends with his mother, loyal to his family, her brother was close friends with his father, she as the single most natural person in Westeros to take over his care as part of a plot.

Yes,  You're right about that.  I somehow didn't take it into account that whenever she heard about Aegon, she would likely have to be convinced that he is the real thing.  What I had meant is that she'd have to be convinced to abandon Dany, who would be her charge in the tinfoil I am suggesting.  She wouldn't do this for a pisswater prince or Illyrio's Blackfyre bastard, but I lost sight of the fact that she would go if she really believed he was authentic.  

__________________________________

Mainly what I am saying here is that I still have no reason to think that the events that brought A=L to fAegon were any earlier than the ones that brought JonCon to the boy.  The rest of my tinfoil is merely explaining what she could have been doing in the meantime. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, The Green Bard said:

That is partly why I think her name is forbidden for some secret that we don't yet understand about the ToJ and any conspiracies between Eddard, any ToJ survivors and House Dayne.

I'm especially in agreement with this part.  I would add that it is suspect as hell that Ned would have risked the trip to Starfall (probably still considered enemy territory)  simply to return a sword, no matter how valuable that sword is.  This is especially true if he had an infant in tow.  

My suspicion is that there is a secret tied in with Ashara and Starfall that Eddard is keeping which may very well be in addition to the truth of Jon's parentage.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

I'm especially in agreement with this part.  I would add that it is suspect as hell that Ned would have risked the trip to Starfall (probably still considered enemy territory)  simply to return a sword, no matter how valuable that sword is.  This is especially true if he had an infant in tow.  

My suspicion is that there is a secret tied in with Ashara and Starfall that Eddard is keeping which may very well be in addition to the truth of Jon's parentage.

If Ashara was the one who informed Ned where he could find Lyanna, he might feel especially honor-bound to inform her of how he and Howland killed her brother. I do expect though that she knew about Jon Snow, since Ned would have brought him from the tower and left with Wylla as his wetnurse.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...